证券研究报告 经营韧性，出海红利，左侧成长 ——家电行业2026年度策略报告 2025年11月26日 行业评级：看好 | 分析师 | 马莉 | 分析师 | 张云添 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | mali@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangyuntian@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230520070002 | 证书编号 | S1230524020006 | | 分析师 | 文煊 | 分析师 | 芦家宁 | | 邮箱 | wenxuan@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | lujianing@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523120003 | 证书编号 | S1230525030003 | 投资建议 主线一：高股息、高ROE，把握白电龙头经营韧性。 主线二：出海红利未尽，把握出口链机遇。 • 2026年保证白电业绩增长的逻辑支撑仍然是出海，白电龙头在全球布局产能、具备应对关税政策的弹性。当下欧美渠道库存我们预计周转良性， 且在保持降息的情况下，预计地产会带动家电消费。 • 市场普遍担忧国补退 ...

Core Viewpoint - Midea Group reported a double-digit growth in revenue for the first three quarters of the year, but the net profit growth in the third quarter showed signs of slowing down due to pressures in the domestic home appliance market from policy adjustments [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2023, Midea Group's revenue increased by 13.82% year-on-year to 363.57 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 19.51% to 37.88 billion yuan [2]. - In the third quarter alone, revenue grew by 10.06% year-on-year to 111.93 billion yuan, while net profit increased by 8.95% to 11.87 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in profit growth [2]. Management Changes - Midea Group announced the resignation of its former Vice President Berlin, who was the President of the China region, with Wang Chunkai taking over his position [3]. - The organizational structure of Midea's domestic marketing system has been further optimized following these changes [3]. Industry Context - The domestic home appliance market faced challenges in the third quarter due to adjustments in national subsidy policies, affecting not only Midea but also other companies like Hisense and TCL [4]. - Hisense reported a revenue growth of only 1.35% to 71.53 billion yuan for the first three quarters, with a net profit increase of 0.67% to 2.81 billion yuan [4]. - TCL's global TV shipment volume increased by 5.3% to 21.08 million units, but its domestic market experienced a decline of 4.1% [4]. Business Strategy - Midea Group's faster growth compared to competitors is attributed to its focus on expanding ToB (business-to-business) and overseas operations, with ToB revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year [5]. - Specific segments such as new energy and industrial technology, smart building technology, and robotics saw revenue growth of 21%, 25%, and 9% respectively [5]. - Midea's overseas revenue from its own brand accounted for over 45% of its ToC (business-to-consumer) business in the first nine months of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival is gaining momentum, but many regions have increased the difficulty of claiming national subsidies, requiring consumers to act quickly to secure benefits [1][3] Group 1: National Subsidy Challenges - Multiple regions, including Hunan, Anhui, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Shanghai, have set thresholds for claiming national subsidies, implementing methods like "coupon grabbing" and "lottery draws" [1][3] - The adjustments in subsidy rules aim to optimize the distribution of funds, with some areas citing insufficient remaining funds as a reason for increased barriers [3][4] Group 2: Market Response and Strategies - Despite the challenges posed by subsidy adjustments, major platforms and merchants remain cautiously optimistic about the performance during this year's "Double Eleven," expecting growth driven by product structure optimization and enhanced multi-channel capabilities [5][6] - Leading appliance companies, such as Haier, are proactively offering corporate subsidies, providing discounts of up to 20%, and collaborating with e-commerce platforms to create a "triple subsidy" model involving government, enterprises, and merchants [5][6] Group 3: Long-term Consumer Trends - The long-term outlook suggests that the subsidy-driven model will transition to a value-driven approach, with a focus on identifying consumer trends post-policy benefits [6][7] - The government is expected to shift from short-term stimulus to long-term cultivation of consumer potential, emphasizing the need for a robust policy framework to support sustained consumption recovery [7][8]

10月9日，"双节"过后的首个工作日，淘宝、京东等电商平台同步开启"双十一"电商节。 （文/观察者网 张志峰） 上一个工作日，9月30日，国家发展改革委会同财政部下达第四批690亿元超长期特别国债补贴资金，至此2025年3000亿元中央补贴已全部下达。 加之整个假期的全方位预热，各种号称国补+品牌优惠+平台券总优惠力度超50%的营销号宣传推广，将消费者的期待值拉满，俨然是一场电商平台+企业 +消费者三方共赢的狂欢。 然而当消费者精打细算，终于下定决心提前替换家里的哪些物什之后，才后知后觉发现，与国补资金同步落地的，是全国范围内补贴政策的剧烈调整："先 到先得"的秒杀模式已成历史，摇号抽签成为主流，可选的热门品类也大幅缩水…… 预期与现实之间的巨大落差，似乎在一夜之间让这场从"普惠"到"限量"的消费狂欢，变了味道。 领国补资格 1 2 选择商品下单 3)支付 补贴活动仅限上海地区用户可参与 ! 电饭煲 电视 去使用 解绑 报名已结束 电脑 洗衣机 报名已结束 报名已结束 热水器 吸油烟ｵ 报名已结束 报名已结束 o 微波炉 家用灶具 从"普惠式"向"精准化"升级 "现在领国补比中彩票还难。"上海消费者李女士的吐 ...

Core Insights - The national subsidy program is facing challenges due to misuse and regulatory scrutiny, leading to changes in how subsidies are distributed [1][3][20] - Several provinces have reported significant amounts of fraudulent use of subsidy funds, totaling over 100 million yuan [2] - The subsidy distribution has shifted from a "no-threshold" approach to a "first-come, first-served" model, and now to a lottery system in some regions [5][9][10][14] Group 1: Subsidy Misuse and Regulatory Response - Reports indicate that six provinces have engaged in fraudulent activities related to the national subsidy, with Hunan accounting for approximately 93.83 million yuan [2] - The initial phase of the subsidy program saw widespread misuse, prompting regulatory bodies to take action and adjust the subsidy distribution methods [3][20] - The adjustments aim to create a more transparent and fair process for subsidy distribution while preventing fraudulent claims [20] Group 2: Changes in Subsidy Distribution Methods - The subsidy distribution has evolved from a "no-threshold" model to a "first-come, first-served" basis, and now to a lottery system in various regions [5][9][10] - In Shanghai, the new lottery system will require consumers to register and participate in a public lottery to receive subsidies, with the first round of registration scheduled from September 20 to 22 [10] - Other regions, such as Anhui, have also adopted similar lottery systems for subsidy distribution, indicating a trend towards more regulated and controlled access to subsidies [14][15] Group 3: Consumer Impact and Sentiment - Consumers have expressed frustration with the new lottery system, feeling that it makes accessing subsidies more difficult [8][12] - The changes in subsidy rules have led to concerns about the overall accessibility and effectiveness of the subsidy program, potentially impacting consumer spending behavior [20][22] - Despite the challenges, the new systems are designed to ensure that subsidies are distributed more fairly and transparently, which may ultimately benefit consumers in the long run [20][22]