景顺长城研究部基金经理 创金合信消费主题基金经理 随着经济产业变革与消费群体迭代，公募基金在消费领域的投资方法论正经历一场静默而深刻的重塑。 近日，在证券时报举办的"攻守之道：新消费'高波动'背后的定价逻辑重构"主题沙龙上，来自长城基 金、景顺长城基金、创金合信基金的基金经理在主题演讲环节一致认为，传统的、以白马龙头为核心的 投资框架已难以充分捕捉当前市场的结构性机遇，取而代之的是对细分新需求的深度挖掘。 他们特别指出，Z世代(1995～2009年间出生人群)的崛起，不仅带动了国潮、悦己、体验式消费等新兴 赛道的蓬勃发展，其独特的价值观念与消费习惯——更注重情绪价值、社交属性与可持续性——正在从 根本上重构消费产业的增长逻辑。因此，告别路径依赖，系统性地理解和投资于由新人群驱动的新需 求、新模式与新品牌，已成为把握未来消费投资机会的关键所在。 消费分层影响细分产业紧抓新生代需求 长城基金国际业务部副总经理、基金经理曲少杰认为，消费行业已告别传统增长模式，进入物质消费理 性化、精神消费奢侈化的双轨新常态。这一变化并非简单的消费降级，而是消费分层的凸显。考虑到Z 世代的消费潜力巨大，未来消费领域的布局应聚焦这一群 ...

家电行业 2026 年度策略：经营韧性，出海红利，左侧成 长 20251201 摘要 家电企业海外市场份额持续提升，欧美市场需求预计 2026 年下半年显 著回升，尤其美国降息及房地产需求将推动家电需求增长，利好相关企 业业绩。 出口链公司 2025 年业绩受海外产能爬坡影响，预计 2026 年修复。中 国家电企业在新兴市场抢占日韩份额，欧美市场增长潜力大，龙头企业 通过全球产能弹性应对关税影响。 黑电行业竞争格局改善，面板周期性减弱，国内面板产能接近垄断，成 本压力减轻，小米等竞争对手放缓竞争，中国黑电企业有望提升全球份 额和利润率。 2025 年双十一黑电行业整体下滑，但 Mini LED 渗透率提升至 47%， 均价提升 14%，表明高端产品需求稳健，预计 2026 年 Mini LED 与 LCD 价差收窄将继续推动渗透率提高。 北美市场库存趋于合理化，美国消费需求有望在降息周期下逐步恢复， 推动黑电行业复苏，欧洲市场价格竞争预计 2026 年放缓，利好中国黑 电龙头企业利润率稳定。 Q&A 2026 年家电行业的年度策略展望是什么？ 2026 年的家电行业投资策略主要围绕四条主线展开：经营韧性、出海 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of the home appliance industry, particularly the white goods sector, and highlights the ongoing benefits from international expansion and growth opportunities in emerging markets [1][4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading companies in the white goods sector, suggesting that they possess strong operational resilience and are well-positioned to navigate market challenges [1][5][17] Investment Recommendations - **Main Line 1**: Focus on high dividend yields and high ROE, capitalizing on the operational resilience of leading white goods companies [3][11] - **Main Line 2**: Leverage the ongoing benefits from international expansion, as leading white goods companies have established global production capacities and can adapt to tariff policies [5][4] - **Main Line 3**: Follow valuation trends and sectors with upward beta, indicating potential growth opportunities [7] - **Main Line 4**: Pay attention to new product categories with low penetration and high growth potential, which could offer significant market opportunities [8] Performance Analysis - The report analyzes the performance of key white goods companies during the pressure testing period of Q2 and Q3 2025, noting that Midea Group and Haier Smart Home demonstrated strong operational resilience despite challenges [13][16] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major players, indicating that Midea Group and Haier Smart Home maintained positive revenue growth, while Gree Electric experienced declines [14][15][16] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that leading companies have effectively managed pricing strategies to counter competition from emerging brands like Xiaomi [32][36] - It highlights the importance of understanding the impact of government subsidy policies on industry demand, particularly as the market enters a high base period in Q4 2025 [22][24] Global Expansion and Tariff Resilience - The report outlines the global production strategies of leading companies, emphasizing their ability to mitigate risks associated with tariff changes through diversified production locations [41][46] - It notes that China's dominance in global white goods production allows for effective pricing strategies and resilience against policy uncertainties [46][47] Consumer Demand and Economic Indicators - The report indicates that consumer demand in North America is closely tied to real estate trends, suggesting that a potential interest rate cut could stimulate home appliance consumption in 2026 [52][58] - It highlights the correlation between housing sales and appliance consumption, emphasizing the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators [58][59]