电投 VS 神火深度对比之电解铝行业投资机会 20250924 摘要 供给侧改革锁定电解铝产能上限，稳定市场供需关系，严格监管有效控 制超产，确保行业规范运行，为电解铝行业发展奠定基础。 国内低廉且充足的能源供应，特别是煤炭和电力成本优势，是中国成为 全球最大电解铝生产国的重要支撑，增强了企业国际竞争力。 短期内，传统旺季需求提升和库存拐点推动去库存及价格上涨；长期来 看，国内供应增速放缓与需求增长加剧供需矛盾，支撑铝价上涨。 再生利用和海外扩展是解决供应问题的重要途径，但需要更高价格以保 证盈利，高价位将成为推动这些措施的重要动力。 国内电解铝产能增量有限，未来新增产能主要来自天山铝业和电投能源， 年均增量预计在 1%至 1.5%之间，增长幅度有限。 海外电解铝产能扩张面临投资成本高、建设进度慢、盈利不确定等挑战， 新增产能对全球供需格局冲击有限。 电解铝行业成本端趋于稳定，供需紧张推动价格中枢抬升，公司盈利仍 有上行空间，应关注海外新增产能及其成本水平以判断未来定价趋势。 Q&A 电解铝行业在全球和国内的定位及其重要性如何？ 电解铝行业在全球范围内具有重要的战略地位。全球约 60%的电解铝产能集中 在中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - CATL is actively expanding its presence in the battery recycling sector, investing over 5.6 billion RMB in a lithium iron phosphate recycling project with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons, coinciding with the critical phase of large-scale retirement of electric vehicle batteries in China [1][2]. Group 1: Market Context - The Chinese government has approved an action plan to establish a comprehensive recycling system for electric vehicle batteries, indicating that the market is entering a phase of large-scale battery retirements [1]. - From 2018 to 2020, approximately 4 million electric vehicle batteries were added to the market, with a projected retirement of over 1.04 million tons of batteries by 2025, and a peak of 3.5 million tons expected between 2030 and 2032, leading to a market size exceeding 100 billion RMB [1]. Group 2: CATL's Strategic Moves - CATL's subsidiary, Bangpu Times, is under scrutiny for its capacity expansion in battery recycling, with a significant investment in a lithium iron phosphate project that is part of a broader strategic partnership with the Yichang municipal government [2]. - The integrated production base planned in Yichang will cover multiple stages from raw materials to battery recycling, highlighting CATL's commitment to a closed-loop model in battery production and recycling [2]. Group 3: Recycling Pathways - Battery recycling primarily involves two pathways: cascade utilization and regeneration. Cascade utilization is applied when the remaining battery capacity is between 50%-80%, while regeneration occurs when capacity falls below 40% [3][4]. - Lithium iron phosphate batteries are favored for cascade utilization due to their long cycle life and safety, whereas ternary lithium batteries present economic and safety challenges in this context [4]. Group 4: Economic Challenges - The current decline in lithium prices poses economic challenges for cascade utilization, as the costs of disassembly and reassembly are nearing those of producing new batteries, compounded by the complexity of new battery technologies [3][4]. - Regeneration of lithium iron phosphate batteries faces higher costs due to more complex chemical processing requirements compared to ternary lithium batteries, despite the growing market for lithium iron phosphate in electric vehicles [4]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government is raising technical standards for the battery recycling industry, with new regulations set to increase lithium recovery rates from 85% to 90% and impose additional recovery rate requirements for electrode materials [5]. - Many companies currently struggle to meet these standards, as the low lithium content in batteries complicates the recovery process, leading to high costs and technical bottlenecks [5].