Core Insights - The report highlights the potential impact of rumors regarding Trump's possible dismissal of Powell, which has led to significant market volatility across stocks, bonds, and currencies [2][11] - The defense and military industry is expected to see a performance turning point, with 48 key companies projected to report a total of approximately 6.768 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 11.2% [10][12] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3534 points, with a daily increase of 0.5% and a monthly increase of 0.69% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2154 points, with a daily increase of 0.36% and a monthly increase of 1.74% [1] - The large-cap index showed a 6-month performance increase of 6.72%, while the small-cap index increased by 11.95% over the same period [1] Industry Performance - The small metals sector experienced a significant increase of 25.75% over the past 6 months, while energy metals rose by 14.3% [1] - Conversely, the animal health sector saw a decline of 33.8% over the past 6 months, indicating a stark contrast in performance across different industries [1] Defense and Military Industry Insights - The military industry is entering a growth cycle driven by domestic demand, particularly due to ongoing military modernization efforts [15][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of military trade, which is expected to resonate strongly with domestic supply and demand dynamics, creating a new landscape for military exports [15][24] - Key companies in the defense sector are recommended for investment, including those involved in next-generation equipment and precision-guided munitions [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, suggesting an increase in focus on military investments [4][5]. Core Insights - The military trade supply and demand are strongly resonating, creating a new industry landscape, with expectations for continuous progress [5]. - The military industry is entering an upward cycle, driven by domestic demand from military construction, particularly in the transition to "mechanization + informationization" and the upcoming "intelligent + unmanned" equipment [5]. - The global geopolitical changes are expanding military trade demand, with China's military products gaining recognition, leading to a strong resonance between supply and demand in military trade [5]. - The growth cycle in the military sector is expected to enhance industry valuations, with a recognition of "technological equity" in military advancements [5]. - Recommendations include increasing attention to military investments, focusing on next-generation equipment and precision-guided weapons, which are expected to see initial growth by 2025 [5]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 2.26%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.69% [6][4]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector were Beihua Co. (23.37%), Yingliu Co. (20.37%), Feilihua (15.98%), AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (12.78%), and Aerospace Power (11.37%) [6][13]. - The bottom five performing stocks included Changchun Yidong (-9.36%), Rongfa Nuclear Power (-6.6%), Rainbow Co. (-6.14%), Guorui Technology (-5.02%), and Galaxy Electronics (-4.66%) [6][13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Military Sector is 83.84, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 71.57% since January 2014 [14]. - Valuations are slightly differentiated among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment at a relatively high valuation since 2020 [14][19]. Key Valuation Targets - The report lists key valuation targets in the military sector, including companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Chengfei, and others, with projected net profits and PE ratios for the coming years [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][29]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is experiencing a significant upward cycle driven by domestic demand and military modernization efforts, particularly the transition to "mechanization + informationization" and the upcoming "intelligent + unmanned" era [5][6]. - The report highlights the increasing global military trade demand due to geopolitical changes, which is expected to create a strong resonance between supply and demand in China's military trade [5]. - The valuation of the military industry is projected to rise as the sector benefits from both domestic construction cycles and the reshaping of global military trade dynamics, leading to higher market recognition and valuation [5][14]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 1.36%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 1.3%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.54% [4][6]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked 13th among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [6]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were: - Morningstar Aviation (24.21%) - China Ship Emergency (20.23%) - Xuanji Information (17.67%) - Rongfa Nuclear Power (17.02%) - Parker New Materials (12.24%) [6][13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 81.14, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 70.36% since January 2014 and 99.24% since January 2019 [14][19]. - The report indicates a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [14][19]. Key Valuation Targets - The report lists several key targets within the military sector, including: - High-end combat capabilities: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, Inner Mongolia First Machinery, and others. - New quality combat capabilities: Chengdu Huamei, Xindong Link, Aerospace Electronics, and others [5][21].