Core Viewpoint - The upcoming military parade on September 3, 2025, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, is expected to significantly boost the military industry sector in the short term, but investors should be cautious of potential overexuberance and subsequent corrections [3][19]. Summary by Sections Military Parade Impact - Historical data indicates that military parades have a notable short-term positive effect on military stocks, with significant price increases observed in the months leading up to such events [4][7]. - For instance, the military industry index saw a maximum increase of 47% in July and August 2015 before the 70th anniversary parade, and a 16% increase before the 70th National Day parade in 2019 [4]. Performance of Military ETFs - As of mid-August 2025, military ETFs have shown strong performance, with returns exceeding 19% for several funds since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [16][17]. - The largest military ETF, the military leader ETF (512710.SH), reported a return of 14.8% year-to-date, while other military ETFs also demonstrated robust gains [17]. Valuation Trends - The military industry index has experienced a downward adjustment in valuation since 2017, with a mismatch between industry growth expectations and actual corporate earnings leading to a more rational valuation environment [9][12]. - Although military events can temporarily elevate valuations, the lack of sustained earnings support suggests that the overall downward trend in military sector valuations remains intact [12]. Cautionary Notes - The current rally in military stocks is primarily driven by the anticipation of the September 3 parade, and historical trends indicate that stocks often retreat after such events [19]. - As 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, there may be a reduction in demand for military orders in the latter half of the year, which could further impact stock performance [19].

作者 | 弗雷迪 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 三连阳的沪指从上周的回调中反弹， 指数继续向年内新高发起冲击 。 截止收盘，沪指涨 0.45% ，收报 3633.99 点；深证成指涨 0.64% ；创业板指涨 0.66% 。 多重利好驱动的军工板块，无疑是这三连涨背后的主要功臣，今天继续着强势表现。 这波军工行情，到底能走多久？ 01 涨停潮继续 板块题材方面，硬件装备细分赛道一齐开花 。 Peek 材料、液冷服务器、军工装备、人形机器人板块走高，水电、医药板块调整。 | PEEK材料 8.87% | 中船系 4.62% | 宇树机器人 3.71% | 十大军工集团 3.56% | 航母 3.55% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 減速器 | 军工信息化 | 具身智能 | ■ 业母机 | 液冷服务器 | | 3.43% | 3.23% | 3.06% | 3.05% | 2.99% | | 雅江水电站 -0.99% | | 坑生素 ｜ | 血液制品 -1.36% | 減肥药 -1.49% | | 水利水电建设 -1.51% | 干细胞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The military industry stocks have experienced a significant surge, driven by strong orders and production acceleration, with expectations for continued high performance in the second half of the year [1][6][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 6, A-share indices rose, with military concept stocks seeing a notable increase; the aircraft carrier index rose nearly 4%, and the military information index increased over 3% [1]. - Major military stocks such as China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry reached their daily limit, with over 20 stocks rising by more than 10% [1][2]. - The trading volume for China Shipbuilding exceeded 8.4 billion yuan, while China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry's trading volume surpassed 4.8 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Company Developments - China Shipbuilding announced a significant asset restructuring project, with plans for a merger with China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, leading to a temporary suspension of trading starting August 13 [4]. - The second domestically built large cruise ship, "Aida Huacheng," has entered the equipment debugging phase, with over 80% of the project completed and scheduled for delivery in 2026 [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The military industry is entering an upward cycle, with strong demand for production and delivery, and the upcoming "9·3" military parade expected to catalyze further interest in military stocks [6][7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to open new growth opportunities for the military sector, with a focus on new combat capabilities and military trade [7]. - Analysts predict that the military industry will see a recovery in fundamentals and sentiment, with expectations for improved performance in the second half of the year compared to the first half [7].

Group 1 - The military industry sector is experiencing a strong rally, leading among 31 industries tracked by Shenwan, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) rising by 2.19% as of 11:02 AM on August 6 [1] - Key stocks in the military sector include Changcheng Military Industry, which hit the daily limit, Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group rising over 7%, and North Navigation increasing over 6% [1] - The upcoming military parade in September is expected to boost market sentiment, recalling the 2015 parade when the military sector began to rally from July 9, achieving a 78% return by August 17, outperforming the overall A-share market by 45% [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, with a high military industry representation of 97.86%, focusing on the aerospace sector, including key components like fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, and missiles [2] - From July 31, 2024, to July 31, 2025, the National Aerospace Index is projected to yield a return of 37.28%, surpassing other indices such as the CSI National Defense Index (33.06%) and the CSI Military Industry Index (30.4%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the military industry in the A-share market, driven by various favorable events and long-term investment logic, particularly in the context of international conflicts and upcoming military exhibitions [2][4]. Group 1: Military Industry Insights - The military sector is experiencing a surge in interest due to significant international events and upcoming exhibitions, indicating a shift towards long-term investment strategies [2]. - The current valuation of the Chinese military sector is approximately 50 times, suggesting potential for growth compared to overseas defense technology giants [4]. - The military industry is expected to benefit from a "double hit" in performance and valuation as orders and results from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" materialize [5]. Group 2: Key Investment Directions - Five main investment directions in the military sector are identified: military trade, military electronics, consumable ammunition, new quality combat capabilities, and military white horse stocks [6][29]. - Military trade is characterized by an increase in equipment completeness and self-sufficiency, leading to growth in export quantity and value [8]. - Military electronics are seen as a barometer for industry health, benefiting from accelerated "14th Five-Year Plan" completion and new product layouts for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [11]. Group 3: Specific Company Opportunities - Key companies in military trade include AVIC Chengfei, AVIC Shenyang, and others in radar detection and missile consumables [10]. - The consumable ammunition supply chain includes raw materials and components, with companies like Fushun Special Steel and China Weapon Industry Group playing significant roles [16]. - New quality combat capabilities are expected to emerge from policies promoting information technology and AI, with companies like AVIC and Huatai Technology leading in advanced platforms and materials [18][20]. Group 4: Long-term Growth Potential - Military white horse stocks are identified as having long cycles, high barriers, and irreplaceable advantages, with companies like AVIC Optical-Electrical showing consistent growth in both market value and performance [29][30]. - The article emphasizes that leading companies in the military sector are expected to outperform the overall industry growth rate, indicating strong investment potential [30].