兴业证券指出，军工检测行业受益于下游高景气，其贯穿武器装备全寿命周期的特性使景气度展现出更 强的韧性与持续性，不易受单一批产波动影响。军工检测主要包括环境适应性与可靠性试验、电子元器 件检测筛选、电磁兼容性试验等，涉及环节多、周期长，技术要求高且前期投入大。随着"十四五"规划 进入收官阶段，行业面临装备需求集中补量的关键时期，补偿式采购增速有望提升，下半年军工检测公 司或进入业绩释放期。展望未来2-3年，在"十五五"规划落地及建军百年目标牵引下，军工行业需求有 望延续增长。军工检测公司近年资本开支持续扩张，随着下游景气加速释放，有望从现金流高增迈向产 能释放阶段。该行业具备资质、客户粘性及技术综合运用等壁垒，头部企业通过实验室全国布局强化服 务能力。 军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（399967），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及军工行业相关业 务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映军工行业上市公司证券的整体表现。中证军工指数成分股覆盖 工业、原材料、信息技术等多个领域，重点聚焦十大军工集团控股企业及其关联业务公司，在行业配置 上以工业板块为主，同时包含通信服务等其他细分领域。 注：如提及个股仅供参考 ...

徐刚，南开大学经济学博士，曾任中信证券执行委员会委员、中信期货董事、华夏基金董事、中信建投 （601066）证券董事、中信兴业投资总经理，现任明晟东诚执行事务合伙人委派代表。 杨辰，清华大学本硕博，核物理博士。11年证券从业经验，曾任中信建投证券军工行业分析师，期间曾 师从周金涛学习康波周期。擅长采用宏观自上而下和中观行业比较相结合的投资策略，具备扎实的学术 专业背景和丰富的权益研究经验。 中长期来看，杨辰明确看好港股市场，以及A股的科技、创新药、军工、金融等板块的结构性行情。全 球资产方面，其ETF轮动策略也会阶段性配置以纳指科技为代表的美国市场和欧洲、日本、拉美等市 场。此外，还叠加对稀土、黄金、铜等大宗商品的配置。 □本报记者 张舒琳 今年以来，股市持续走高，市场交投活跃。在上证指数站稳3600点之际，记者就市场热点采访了明晟东 诚基金创始人徐刚、基金经理杨辰。徐刚认为，始于2024年9月的本轮行情有望持续四年以上，港股将 成为关键突破口，并承担中国资产"价值锚"功能。杨辰表示，将聚焦军工、创新药、金融科技领域的投 资机会，并灵活运用ETF轮动策略进行择时和主线配置。 港股有望成为行情突破口 从2021 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming military parade on September 3, 2025, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, is expected to significantly boost the military industry sector in the short term, but investors should be cautious of potential overexuberance and subsequent corrections [3][19]. Summary by Sections Military Parade Impact - Historical data indicates that military parades have a notable short-term positive effect on military stocks, with significant price increases observed in the months leading up to such events [4][7]. - For instance, the military industry index saw a maximum increase of 47% in July and August 2015 before the 70th anniversary parade, and a 16% increase before the 70th National Day parade in 2019 [4]. Performance of Military ETFs - As of mid-August 2025, military ETFs have shown strong performance, with returns exceeding 19% for several funds since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [16][17]. - The largest military ETF, the military leader ETF (512710.SH), reported a return of 14.8% year-to-date, while other military ETFs also demonstrated robust gains [17]. Valuation Trends - The military industry index has experienced a downward adjustment in valuation since 2017, with a mismatch between industry growth expectations and actual corporate earnings leading to a more rational valuation environment [9][12]. - Although military events can temporarily elevate valuations, the lack of sustained earnings support suggests that the overall downward trend in military sector valuations remains intact [12]. Cautionary Notes - The current rally in military stocks is primarily driven by the anticipation of the September 3 parade, and historical trends indicate that stocks often retreat after such events [19]. - As 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, there may be a reduction in demand for military orders in the latter half of the year, which could further impact stock performance [19].

Core Viewpoint - The overall net inflow of funds into stock ETFs exceeded 7.1 billion yuan on August 6, with broad-based ETFs being the main beneficiaries while certain thematic ETFs experienced significant outflows [2][3]. Fund Inflows and Outflows - The total net inflow into stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 71.94 billion yuan, bringing the latest total scale to 3.82 trillion yuan [3]. - Among the major categories, broad-based ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs saw the highest net inflows of 39.48 billion yuan and 20.98 billion yuan, respectively, while commodity ETFs faced the largest outflow of 15.09 billion yuan [3]. - The net inflow for the CSI A500 index was the highest at 13.99 billion yuan, while the SGE Gold 9999 index had the largest outflow at 14.44 billion yuan [3]. Performance of Leading Fund Companies - E Fund's ETFs reached a latest scale of 684.67 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 12.8 billion yuan on the previous day and an increase of 84.02 billion yuan year-to-date [3]. - The E Fund A500 ETF saw a net inflow of 5.9 billion yuan, while the E Fund Robotics ETF had a net inflow of 2.4 billion yuan, surpassing 4 billion yuan in total scale [3]. Thematic ETF Performance - The leading broad-based ETFs that attracted significant inflows included the CSI 1000 ETF, A500 ETF, CSI 500 ETF, and CSI 300 ETF, while thematic ETFs in military, gaming, dividends, and real estate sectors experienced notable outflows [5][6]. - Specific outflows included the Military ETF with a net outflow of 4.80 million yuan and the Gaming ETF with a net outflow of 4.77 million yuan [6]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its recovery supported by domestic policies, with the technology sector likely to become a key driver of economic growth, particularly in artificial intelligence and semiconductors [7].

Core Viewpoint - On August 6, the overall net inflow of stock ETFs exceeded 7.1 billion yuan, with significant gains in military and robotics sectors, indicating strong investor interest in these areas [2][4]. Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The total net inflow of stock ETFs reached 71.94 billion yuan, bringing the latest total scale to 3.82 trillion yuan [4]. - Among the major types, broad-based ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs saw the highest net inflows of 39.48 billion yuan and 20.98 billion yuan, respectively, while commodity ETFs experienced a net outflow of 15.09 billion yuan [4]. - The broad-based ETF scale increased by 137.47 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Top Performing ETFs - The top net inflows for August 6 were led by the CSI 1000 ETF with 12.05 billion yuan, followed by the Hong Kong Internet ETF with 7.55 billion yuan [8]. - Other notable ETFs with significant inflows included the Securities ETF (6.32 billion yuan), A500 ETF (5.90 billion yuan), and CSI 500 ETF (5.13 billion yuan) [8][7]. Group 3: Underperforming ETFs - The ETFs that experienced the highest net outflows included the Military Industry ETF (-4.80 billion yuan), Game ETF (-4.77 billion yuan), and Dividend ETF (-1.76 billion yuan) [9]. - The Real Estate ETF also saw a net outflow of -1.39 billion yuan, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal from these sectors [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is expected to experience a structural uplift due to easing geopolitical tensions and domestic policy support, which may enhance market risk appetite [10]. - The technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, is anticipated to drive economic growth and present new investment opportunities [10].

Key Points - The total trading amount for Shanghai Stock Connect today was 99.259 billion, while Shenzhen Stock Connect totaled 101.427 billion [1] - The top traded stocks in Shanghai Stock Connect included Lankai Technology, WuXi AppTec, and Kweichow Moutai, with trading amounts of 15.80 billion, 15.38 billion, and 14.73 billion respectively [2] - In Shenzhen Stock Connect, the leading stocks were CATL, Shenghong Technology, and Xinyi Technology, with trading amounts of 14.16 billion, 13.92 billion, and 9.93 billion respectively [3] Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest net inflow of funds included Machinery Equipment, National Defense and Military Industry, and General Equipment, with net inflows of 53.17 billion, 42.38 billion, and 29.77 billion respectively [5] - Conversely, the sectors with the largest net outflows were Pharmaceuticals, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and Communications, with net outflows of -100.22 billion, -41.13 billion, and -28.77 billion respectively [6] Individual Stock Activity - The stocks with the highest net inflow of funds included Dongfang Guoxin, Chengfei Integration, and Dongfang Precision, with net inflows of 7.34 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.06 billion respectively [7] - The stocks with the largest net outflow included Tibet Tianlu, Yangrui Technology, and Dongxin Peace, with net outflows of -9.76 billion, -8.06 billion, and -5.99 billion respectively [8] ETF Trading - The top ten ETFs by trading amount included Hong Kong Securities ETF, with a trading amount of 9.61071 billion, and Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, with 7.7682 billion [9] - The trading amounts for other notable ETFs included A500 ETF Fund at 4.05756 billion and Military Industry ETF at 1.73988 billion, showing significant changes compared to the previous trading day [11] Futures Positioning - In the futures market, the main contracts showed a decrease in both long and short positions for IH and IF contracts, while IC and IM contracts saw an increase in long positions [12] Institutional Activity - Institutional buying was notable in stocks like Guoling Nonferrous Metals and Chengfei Integration, with purchases of 1.52 billion and 0.689 billion respectively [14] - Conversely, stocks like Xizang Tianlu and Dongjie Intelligent saw significant institutional selling, with outflows of -0.976 billion and -0.616 billion respectively [15]

Core Insights - The performance of FOF (Fund of Funds) products has been impressive this year, with over 90% achieving positive returns [1][4] - The asset allocation approach is described as having "no optimal solution," emphasizing the need for a stable analytical framework and diversified investments to avoid common pitfalls like "chasing gains and cutting losses" [1][3][6] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The manager, Tang Jun, advocates for a multi-faceted asset allocation strategy that includes objective standards and diversified returns to mitigate risks associated with market expectations [1][6] - Tang Jun's experience in quantitative investment has shaped his ability to identify market factors and adjust asset allocations dynamically based on market conditions [2][4] - The current allocation strategy has shifted towards A-shares, reflecting a responsive adjustment to market trends, with a notable increase in A-share allocation compared to Hong Kong stocks [4][5] Group 2: Market Insights and Tactical Adjustments - The positive performance of FOF products is attributed to effective diversification strategies, particularly during stable market conditions [4] - Despite uncertainties in external environments, domestic policy support is expected to provide a solid foundation for the A-share market, leading to a stable and potentially strong performance [5] - Tang Jun has actively engaged in tactical allocations within sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and military industries, capitalizing on growth trends and market opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Behavioral Insights and Investor Guidance - The common mistake of "chasing gains and cutting losses" is highlighted, with recommendations for establishing an analytical framework based on objective standards to guide investment decisions [6][7] - Understanding "expectation differences" is crucial for avoiding impulsive trading decisions, as market consensus often serves as a contrary indicator [7] - Investors are advised to differentiate between returns driven by style beta and alpha when selecting funds, which aligns with Tang Jun's quantitative research background [7]

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China reached a historic milestone in 2025, with a total scale exceeding 34 trillion yuan, marking an increase of 3 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - Index funds, particularly the newly launched CSI A500 Innovation Index, played a significant role in this growth, with a net increase of 2.17 trillion yuan [1] - The market dynamics shifted significantly in 2025, with the leading position of Guotai Fund's CSI A500 ETF diminishing rapidly due to a decline in scale and liquidity issues [2][3] Fund Performance - The CSI A500 ETF by Guotai Fund peaked at 281 billion yuan at the end of 2024 but saw its scale shrink to 184 billion yuan by mid-2025, making it the largest declining broad-based ETF in the first half of 2025 [1][2] - In June 2025, Huatai-PB Fund's A500 ETF surpassed Guotai Fund's product, increasing its scale by over 13 billion yuan to reach 220 billion yuan [2] - Guotai Fund's overall performance in the index fund sector has deteriorated, dropping from fourth place in Q2 2023 to ninth place by Q2 2025 [2][3] Market Dynamics - The index fund market exhibits a "winner-takes-all" phenomenon, where larger products attract more institutional funds, reinforcing their scale advantage [2] - Guotai Fund's A500 ETF struggled with low average trading volume compared to competitors, revealing a mismatch between scale and liquidity [2] - The fund's recent strategic choices, including cuts to client maintenance fees, have negatively impacted its market competitiveness [4][5] Strategic Considerations - Guotai Fund faces a critical decision on whether to continue competing aggressively in the broad-based ETF market or to refocus on its core strengths in specialized sectors [5] - The failure of the A500 scale strategy presents an opportunity for Guotai Fund to reassess its competitive advantages and market positioning [5]

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - The report recommends 10 stocks and 3 ETFs based on a top-down approach for August allocation [1] - Lu'an Huanneng is highlighted for its high spot coal ratio, significant earnings elasticity, and low PB valuation [1][8] - Huayou Cobalt benefits from integrated layout advantages, stable incremental profit from wet nickel production, and a significant decrease in cobalt imports in June [1][8] - Geely Automobile's privatization of Zeekr will enhance resource integration and decision-making efficiency, with an adjusted annual sales target of 3 million vehicles [2][8] - Cambrian is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI chips and has plans for hardware and software platform development [2][8] - SMIC is advancing in domestic computing capabilities with improved yield rates and is expected to benefit from the semiconductor cycle [2][8] - North Navigation is a leader in the long-range fire industry, experiencing rapid demand recovery and implementing stock incentives [3][8] - Shengquan Group is a leading supplier in high-frequency resin, expected to see rapid growth due to PCB industry demand [3][8] - CITIC Securities is well-positioned in the financial sector with a solid market position and ample IPO reserves [3][8] - Jiao You International focuses on cross-border mineral logistics, particularly in Africa, ensuring efficient and secure transportation [3][8] - China Jinmao has made significant impairment provisions and is on track to meet its sales target [4][8] Group 2: ETF Recommendations - Recommended ETFs include Military Industry ETF, TMT ETF, and Chemical ETF, reflecting sectoral strengths [4][10] - The Military Industry ETF has a total net value of 171.45 billion yuan with a year-to-date growth rate of 14.33% [10] - The TMT ETF shows a year-to-date growth rate of 12.27% and a total net value of 5.02 billion yuan [10] - The Chemical ETF has a total net value of 33.81 billion yuan with a growth rate of 9.22% [10] Group 3: Financial Data Highlights - Lu'an Huanneng's EPS is projected to be 0.65 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 23 [9] - Huayou Cobalt's EPS is expected to rise to 3.11 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 15 [9] - Geely Automobile's EPS is forecasted at 1.61 yuan in 2025, maintaining a PE ratio of 11 [9] - Cambrian is projected to have an EPS of 3.04 yuan in 2025, with a high PE ratio of 234 [9] - SMIC's EPS is expected to reach 0.64 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 144 [9] - North Navigation's EPS is projected at 0.17 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 104 [9] - Shengquan Group's EPS is expected to be 1.53 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 21 [9] - CITIC Securities is projected to have an EPS of 1.56 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19 [9] - Jiao You International's EPS is expected to be 1.49 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 8 [9] - China Jinmao's EPS is projected at 0.12 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 11 [9]

Group 1 - The stock indices collectively rose this week, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets seeing a net inflow of approximately 4 billion yuan into stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3593.66 points, up 1.67% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11168.14 points, up 2.33% [2] - Major industry-themed ETFs such as steel, chemicals, and infrastructure received significant inflows, while technology-related ETFs like those focused on semiconductor and military sectors faced outflows [5][8] Group 2 - The steel ETF saw a net inflow of 14.24 billion yuan, the chemical ETF 13.90 billion yuan, and the infrastructure ETF 12.16 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [5][6] - In contrast, the semiconductor ETF experienced a net outflow of 9.26 billion yuan, with significant reductions in shares for military and medical ETFs as well [8] - The overall market sentiment is supported by stable policy expectations, increased market liquidity, and heightened investor activity, which are driving the strength of A-shares [4][11] Group 3 - The Hong Kong securities ETF had a weekly trading volume exceeding 100 billion yuan, indicating robust trading activity in the region [12][14] - Several ETFs reached new highs in trading volume, reflecting a positive market trend and investor confidence [13][14] - The implementation of infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, is expected to boost demand for materials in the steel and cement industries [11]