[证券分析师 Table_Authors] 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月22日 公 司 深 度 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/07/21 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 11.52 | | 总股本(万股) | 91,027 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 91,027/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 32.23% | | 市净率(倍) | 1.06 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 1.65 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 14.03/9.56 | [Table_QuotePic] -22% -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 24-07 24-10 25-01 25-04 广信股份 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.农药行业利润分配向制剂及销售 端倾斜，相关企业盈利有望改善—— 化工系列研究（九） 2.农药减量增效政策推动 ...

再再推荐农药系列 - 草甘膦 20250721 摘要 农药行业在经历 2022 年第四季度开始的去库存阶段后，目前库存已恢 复至正常水平，但因产能过剩，价格自 2022 年下半年下跌后，2023 年 6 月触底并进入盘整期，预计 2025 年仍将维持底部震荡。 2025 年表现较好的农药品种包括百菌清、阿维菌素、甲维盐等，受益 于供给端事件（停产或爆炸）和复配需求增加，部分产品如代森锰锌近 期由 UPL 主动调价，价格有所上调。 中国草甘膦年产量约 60 万吨，产能利用率 75%。受长江沿岸工厂停产 影响，预计影响产量约 9 万吨，占中国年总产量的 10%。同时，草甘膦 库存从高位 8 万吨降至 3.4 万吨，价格从 23,500 元/吨涨至 25,900 元/ 吨，毛利改善。 草甘膦未来涨价预期参考 2020 年类似事件，当时因洪水导致两家企业 停产，草甘膦价格大幅上涨。目前两家工厂停产预计影响 4.5 万吨产量， 叠加河北环保检查可能导致原材料紧缺，构成潜在催化因素。 巴西是草甘膦需求大国，受中美关税影响，部分原本从美国进口的草甘 膦订单可能转向中国，叠加巴西种植面积增加，将进一步刺激中国草甘 膦出口需求 ...

Group 1 - The pesticide industry is experiencing a continuous recovery, with significant improvement in profitability. Several pesticide companies have reported substantial profit increases for the first half of 2025, with Xinda Co. achieving a net profit of approximately 130 million to 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2443.43% to 2834.73%, and Limin Co. reporting a net profit of about 260 million to 280 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 719.25% to 782.27% [1][9][10] - The main reasons for the profit growth in the pesticide sector include increases in both product sales and prices. Although pesticide prices are currently at historical lows, improvements in domestic and international supply and steady growth in end-user demand may lead to price turning points for certain pesticide varieties [1][9][13] - The global pesticide market is projected to grow steadily, with an estimated market size of 1,582.375 billion yuan in 2024, expected to reach 1,998.533 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.97% [13] Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange has seen a weekly increase of 2.60%, ranking second among five major industries, only behind the consumer services sector, which rose by 3.59% [2][21] - The performance of sub-sectors within the chemical new materials industry has been mixed, with notable increases in metal new materials (+4.21%), non-metal materials (+6.65%), and rubber and plastic products (+1.03%), while textile manufacturing and professional technical services experienced declines [2][22][23] - Key companies in the chemical new materials sector have shown significant stock performance, with Benlang New Materials rising by 35.14%, Silane Technology by 11.74%, and Kaida Catalysis by 9.26% [2][23][27] Group 3 - Jiashan Co. plans to establish a new electronic materials intermediate project with an annual production capacity of 1,000 tons, focusing on photolithography raw materials, with an estimated total investment of approximately 80 million yuan [3][47] - The company aims to enhance its product variety and strengthen its market position in the high-end photolithography raw materials sector, which is experiencing significant growth opportunities [3][47]

Group 1 - The company Li Min Co., Ltd. (002734) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 260 million to 280 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 719.25% to 782.27% [1] - The expected non-net profit is projected to be between 247 million to 268 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 770.37% to 844.37% [1] - The substantial growth in profit is attributed to increased sales and prices of main products, improved gross margins, and increased investment income from affiliated companies [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported an operating income of 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.28%, and a net profit of 108 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2] - The company noted a positive market environment, with a rise in raw material prices and a recovery in pesticide prices due to increased demand and low inventory levels [2] - The main products, such as Mancozeb and other high-cost performance fungicides, are experiencing strong demand, leading to price increases due to supply shortages [2] Group 3 - The company emphasizes that under the policy environment of green and high-quality development, technological transformation and upgrading will accelerate, leading to increased industry concentration [3] - Companies that comply with safety and environmental regulations and possess strong independent innovation capabilities will have a competitive advantage [3] - The demand for pesticides is expected to grow steadily due to the increasing global population and the need to enhance crop yields [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Glyphosate and Glufosinate Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the glyphosate and glufosinate markets, discussing current trends, pricing, and regulatory impacts on the agricultural chemicals industry [1][2][3]. Key Points on Glyphosate - Glyphosate prices have recently increased due to reduced supply from major producers facing environmental regulations, leading to production halts and limits since late last year [2]. - The market has transitioned from a destocking phase to a restocking phase, with downstream buyers showing increased purchasing willingness, which is driving prices up [2]. - Current glyphosate inventory levels are still high compared to historical averages, necessitating a slow price increase process as market demand is observed [5]. - Seasonal demand patterns indicate that the first half of the year is typically a peak season, but recent price volatility has led to smaller batch purchases by buyers [6]. Key Points on Glufosinate - Glufosinate prices have shown a downward trend in the past month due to domestic overcapacity and high inventory levels [3]. - The introduction of chloride ion limit standards by the China Pesticide Industry Association may increase production costs, potentially raising glufosinate prices to around 60,000 yuan [4][11]. - The glufosinate industry has not seen a collaborative reduction in production, with some companies employing low-price strategies to outcompete others [19]. Regulatory and Safety Concerns - The agricultural sector is facing increased scrutiny due to frequent safety incidents, prompting the Ministry of Emergency Management to enhance regulatory measures [14]. - Specific measures in Henan province require nitro-compound enterprises to adopt continuous tubular equipment and processes to improve safety standards [15]. - Stricter regulations on glufosinate production could impact 25% to 33% of supply and capacity, as many companies currently rely on low-cost production methods that may not meet new standards [21]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The glyphosate market is expected to remain stable with limited downside risk until new production capacities come online, such as a 50,000-ton facility expected to start in late 2025 [28]. - The glufosinate market is under pressure from price declines, but some companies in the western regions are still profitable due to lower production costs [20]. - The potential for glyphosate and glufosinate to be used interchangeably in certain applications may increase as glufosinate's cost-effectiveness improves [31]. Additional Insights - Bayer's ongoing litigation regarding glyphosate has resulted in significant financial implications, with potential considerations for bankruptcy or divestiture of Monsanto to alleviate financial burdens [16]. - The agricultural chemicals industry is facing challenges in innovation and registration processes due to stringent safety requirements that may not align with current industry capabilities [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the glyphosate and glufosinate markets, along with regulatory impacts and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The pesticide industry, crucial for food security, is under scrutiny as Tianyuan Biochemical Co., Ltd. initiates its IPO process amidst a challenging market environment marked by stagnant revenue growth and high reliance on distributors [1][3]. Financial Performance - Tianyuan Biochemical's revenue from 2022 to 2024 shows minimal growth, with figures of 1.71 billion, 1.77 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan respectively, while net profits increased from 161.63 million to 248.55 million yuan [3][4]. - The company's total assets grew from 1.35 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.62 billion yuan in 2024, with a notable decrease in asset-liability ratio from 63.18% to 44.59% [4]. - The sales revenue from distributors accounted for over 96% of total revenue during the same period, indicating a heavy dependence on this sales model [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The pesticide market is characterized by intense competition and product homogenization, leading to declining sales prices, particularly for herbicides, which fell by 18.26% from 2023 to 2024 [6][7]. - The average gross margin of Tianyuan Biochemical is lower than that of comparable companies, with a gross margin of 36.07% in 2024 compared to an industry average of 36.22% [8]. R&D and Innovation - The company has consistently invested less in R&D compared to industry peers, with R&D expense ratios of 2.53%, 2.71%, and 4.24% from 2022 to 2024, which is below the industry average [9][10]. - There is a significant gap between R&D expenses and sales expenses, with R&D costs amounting to 74.26 million yuan in 2024 compared to over 226 million yuan in sales expenses [10][11]. Regulatory and Legal Issues - Tianyuan Biochemical has faced legal challenges and administrative penalties, including fines for selling unregistered pesticide products, which raises concerns about internal governance and compliance [13][14]. - The company has unresolved property rights issues, with 11,432.79 square meters of real estate lacking proper documentation, posing risks of administrative penalties [14][15]. Investor Sentiment - Recent cash dividends totaling 221 million yuan have raised concerns among investors about the company's financial management, particularly in light of its IPO fundraising of approximately 630 million yuan [16].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the agricultural chemical industry, highlighting the recovery potential in the pesticide market due to rising glyphosate prices [1][8] - Glyphosate prices have shown a significant recovery, with the raw material price reaching 24,800 CNY per ton as of July 1, 2025, an increase of 1,800 CNY per ton since early April [6][8] Industry Performance - The basic chemical industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index over various time frames, with a 1-month performance of 5.0%, 3-month performance of 3.2%, and a 12-month performance of 16.4% compared to the CSI 300's 2.7%, 1.5%, and 13.6% respectively [4] Investment Highlights - The glyphosate industry is experiencing inventory depletion and demand recovery, leading to a price rebound from its bottom. As of June 27, 2025, glyphosate industry inventory was 40,000 tons, down 43,000 tons since early April [6] - The global largest glyphosate producer, Bayer, faces potential bankruptcy due to ongoing lawsuits related to its glyphosate product "Roundup," which could benefit domestic competitors in the glyphosate market [7] Company Focus - Key companies in the glyphosate sector include: - Jiangshan Chemical, with a production capacity of 70,000 tons/year [9] - Xingfa Group, the leading domestic glyphosate producer with a capacity of 230,000 tons/year [9] - Xin'an Chemical, with a capacity of 80,000 tons/year [10] - Yangnong Chemical, a major player with a capacity of 30,000 tons/year [10] - Guoxin Co., with a capacity of 20,000 tons/year [10] - Hebang Bio, with a capacity of 50,000 tons/year [10] - Lier Chemical, with a capacity of 18,500 tons/year [10] - Limin Co., with a capacity of 5,000 tons of glyphosate and 2,000 tons of refined glyphosate [10] Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for key companies, indicating potential growth in profitability: - Jiangshan Chemical: EPS of 1.10 CNY in 2025E [11] - Xingfa Group: EPS of 1.85 CNY in 2025E [11] - Yangnong Chemical: EPS of 3.44 CNY in 2025E [11] - Guoxin Co.: EPS of 1.12 CNY in 2025E [11] - Lier Chemical: EPS of 0.53 CNY in 2025E [11] - Limin Co.: EPS of 1.05 CNY in 2025E [11]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Fengshan Group Co., Ltd. maintains an AA- credit rating with a stable outlook, reflecting its strong product structure and customer quality, despite facing challenges in profitability and industry conditions [4][9]. Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of pesticide active ingredients, formulations, and fine chemical intermediates [11]. - The fine chemical segment has entered trial production, enhancing the company's product chain and competitiveness [6][11]. Financial Performance - Total assets as of March 2025 are 27.81 billion, with equity attributable to shareholders at 15.91 billion [4]. - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 3.22 billion, a decline from 10.44 billion in 2022, with a net profit of 0.15 billion, recovering from a loss of 0.42 billion in 2022 [4][5]. - The company’s operating cash flow has been negative, indicating challenges in cash generation [4]. Industry Environment - The pesticide industry is currently at a cyclical low, with a projected slight decline in revenue for 2024, while the net profit is expected to remain a loss of 0.39 billion [6][9]. - The global pesticide market is expected to grow from 790.6 billion in 2024 to 1,185.1 billion by 2031, driven by increasing food demand and pest control needs [14]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to the commercialization of sodium-ion electrolyte products, which are not progressing as expected, leading to underutilization of production capacity [7][8]. - Environmental and safety production risks are heightened due to stricter regulations in the chemical industry [8][9]. Market Position - The company has a competitive edge in its core pesticide products, with significant market share in active ingredients like Fluorochloromethane and Quinclorac [15][16]. - The sales concentration remains low, with a diverse customer base, reducing dependency on a few clients [19]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency maintains a stable outlook for the company, anticipating gradual recovery in market demand and pricing for its main products [9][12]. - The company is actively managing inventory and production to align with market conditions, indicating a strategic approach to navigating current challenges [19].

扬农化工 20250622 摘要 扬农化工依托先正达集团及两化协同效应，加速发展，巩固了其在国内 农药行业的龙头地位。通过并入中化作物农研公司，扬农在研产销方面 获得了持续的优势加持，尤其是在原药生产领域。 农药行业经历去库存后，正转向去产能阶段，面临新一轮洗牌。扬农化 工通过葫芦岛基地建设，提升市场份额，核心产品如功夫菊酯、联苯菊 酯在价格低位仍具成本优势，部分竞争对手停产，凸显其盈利能力。 加入先正达集团后，扬农化工在研发、生产和销售方面形成协同效应， 可打通原药生产及销售产业链，提高市场份额。先正达的原药采购需求 及研发平台为扬农带来业绩支撑和创新动力，如氟唑菌酰羟胺的合作生 产。 扬农化工总收入规模超百亿，杀虫剂、除草剂和杀菌剂为主要收入来源。 公司采取以原料药为主、制剂为辅的发展策略，在全球农药公司中排名 前 15，国内稳定在前三前四。 公司通过内生性扩张，快速工程转化能力使项目建设迅速推进，有效实 现盈利与资本开支效率。葫芦岛基地一期已投产，新一轮资本扩张正在 进行，与新投产亏损企业形成对比。 Q&A 扬农化工在农药行业中的地位如何？其核心产品和业务布局是怎样的？ 扬农化工是国内领先的农药原药生产 ...

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 20 日 扬农化工 (600486) ——农药景气触底回升，公司再迎成长周期 报告原因：有新的信息需要补充 | 投资要点： | | --- | ⚫ 一、行业层面：全球去库存卓有成效，行业周期触底回升，新一轮整合下"强者恒强"。23-24 年农药市场采购需求疲软，去库存成为行业主旋律。25 年以来全球市场及企业库存均回归至 22 年之前正常乃至低位水平。产品价格方面，多数品种已跌无可跌，部分品种出现阶段性供需错 配行情，行业触底回暖信号明确。我们预计 25 年市场将从"去库存"转入"去产能"阶段，行 业将经历一定时期的优化整合，具有核心技术和创新能力，以及拥有市场渠道和品牌知名度等 核心竞争力的行业主导者将会越来越强，市场份额及影响力将持续提升。 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,435 | 3,241 | 11,530 | 13,361 | 14,654 | | 同比增长率（% ...