Export Performance - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5% and up from 4.8% in May[5] - The export growth rate for Q2 was 6.2%, higher than Q1's 5.7% and the full-year rate of 5.8% from the previous year[6] - Key export categories included mechanical and electrical products, which grew by 8.2%, and high-tech products, which rose by 6.9%[16] Import Trends - Imports in June rose by 1.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 3.4% in May, aligning closely with market expectations of 1.3%[5][24] - The increase in imports was supported by a low base effect from the previous year and improved domestic demand due to expansionary policies[24] - High-tech products significantly contributed to import growth, with integrated circuits and aircraft showing strong performance[24] Trade Balance - China's trade surplus in June reached $114.77 billion, surpassing the expected $109 billion and up from $103.22 billion in May[5] - The trade surplus reflects a recovery in both exports and imports, indicating a positive shift in trade dynamics[5] Market Dynamics - The marginal improvement in external demand is attributed to a recovery in global manufacturing, with the global PMI rising to 49.5 in June[10] - Exports to emerging markets showed robust growth, with ASEAN exports increasing by 16.8% and exports to Africa rising by 34.8%[13]

越南6月贸易余额 28.26亿美元，预期 23.03亿美元，前值 5.51亿美元。 越南6月出口同比 16.3%，预期 18.1%，前值 17%。 越南6月进口同比 20.2%，预期 23.1%，前值 14.1%。 ...

日本5月出口同比 -1.7%，预期 -3.7%，前值 2%。 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 1 季度经济，经济或将顺利实现"开门红"，预计 1 季度 GDP 5.1% 左右，超全年目标增速。预计 3 月 工增、社零、制造业投资偏强，出口尚未回落，社融在政府债继续快速发行背景下增速持平于上月， CPI 降幅收窄。但 2 季度可能仍将面临一些考验，包括物价能否回升、关税冲击下出口会如何演变、房价能否 企稳等。 报告摘要 一、1季度GDP：预计同比增速5.1%左右 主要的分项来看：1）对于工业，增速偏高，预计1季度同比5.7%左右。主要考虑到在"两新"、"抢出 口"、"硬科技"的共振影响下，生产偏强。2）对于金融业，预计增速低于去年四季度的6.5%，一方面，1季 度股票交易额的增速低于去年四季度，另一方面，1-2月的保费收入增速低于去年四季度。3）对于地产 业，预计增速1%，同样低于去年四季度2%，主要考虑到1季度新房销售面积增速转负。4）信息业、租赁和 商务服务业，结合其生产指数来看，保持偏高增长。 二、3月主要经济数据 1、物价：春节错位因素消退， ...