联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 9 月，从物价角度来看，关注的是三个变化。 首先 ， 制造业投资累计增速或将是 2021 年以来首次低于 GDP 累计增速，预计 1-9 月制造业投资累计增 速为 4.0% ，前三季度 GDP 累计增速为 5.1% 左右（三季度当季预计为 4.8% 左右）。这有助于改善中期 维度的供需矛盾。 其次 ， 物价的领先指标，金融层面的 M1 或开始回落，这意味着未来 3-4 个季度的物 价走势存在反复的可能。 再次 ， 物价的静态表现， 9 月 PPI 同比收窄，但环比或再次转跌，反映了当下 终端需求尤其是内需依然偏弱的状态，预计 9 月社零同比 3.2% 左右， 1-9 月固投累计增速 -0.2% ， 9 月 出口同比 6% 左右。 以上三个变化对于政策而言，需密切关注短期经济运行，适时在终端需求层面予以加力。 根据 9 月 29 日 发改委发布会，"将持续加强经济监测预测预警，做好政策预研储备，根据形势变化及时推出"。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 近期以来，政策已经有所微调的包括一线城 ...

Macro and Commodity Market Dynamics - China's retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with automotive retail sales declining [1] - In the U.S., retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in July, marking ten consecutive months of actual retail sales growth; however, consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in August [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated officials' concerns about inflation, with a hawkish tone, and attention is on Powell's statements at the upcoming global central bank meeting [1] Copper Market - LME copper spot discount widened, with increased copper imports as the import window opened, putting pressure on premiums [1] - Downstream demand is in the off-season, leading to a decline in operating rates; overall, macro sentiment is fluctuating with weak supply and demand, limiting the downside for copper prices [1] Aluminum Market - Similar to copper, attention is on Powell's statements; aluminum prices remain high, but domestic consumption recovery is weak, and supply is ample [1] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for electrolytic aluminum, which is pressuring aluminum prices; overall, macro sentiment is fluctuating with downstream demand under pressure [1] Zinc Market - Mixed macro signals with potential support for the non-ferrous sector from a possible Fed rate cut in September [1] - Zinc ingot production exceeded 600,000 tons in July, with continued recovery in August, expected to increase by 10,000 tons month-on-month [1] - Short-term demand is in the off-season but shows resilience; however, inventory accumulation is pressuring zinc prices, with potential risks of warehouse squeezes [1] Nickel Market - Domestic news regarding anti-competitive practices is fluctuating, with macro sentiment cooling and hawkish Fed minutes [1] - Indonesian nickel ore premiums remain stable, with increased pure nickel supply and rising social inventories, leading to price fluctuations [1] - Global nickel inventories are at high levels, with stable supply and weak demand, indicating an oversupply of primary nickel; short-term operations should focus on selling opportunities while controlling risks [1]

Economic Data Summary - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is reported at 7.2% [3] - Real estate sales have shown a cumulative growth rate of -10.6% [3] - Fixed asset investment has a cumulative growth rate of 11.2% [3] - Retail sales have a cumulative growth rate of 16.5% [3] - Industrial output has a cumulative growth rate of 14.5% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of various provinces in China during the first half of 2025 shows significant disparities, with some provinces exceeding growth expectations while others, particularly in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing declines in consumer spending and employment satisfaction [4][6][10]. Economic Growth Performance - Among the top eight economic provinces, all except Guangdong achieved GDP growth rates above the national average of 5.3%, with rates ranging from 5.6% to 6.2% [3][4][7]. - In total, 21 provinces reported GDP growth rates exceeding their initial annual targets, indicating a strong foundation for achieving these goals [4][6]. Consumer Spending Trends - The retail sales growth in Beijing and Shanghai was notably low, with Beijing experiencing a decline of 3.8% in retail sales, while Shanghai's growth was only 1.7%, placing them among the lowest in the country [13][24]. - Nationally, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, with 19 provinces exceeding the national average retail sales growth of 5% [10][11]. Employment and Consumer Confidence - Beijing's employment satisfaction index fell to a historical low of 75.2, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence, which has remained below the critical threshold of 100 for four consecutive quarters [17][19][23]. - The consumer confidence index in Beijing was reported at 95.3, indicating weak consumer sentiment primarily driven by employment expectations [17][18]. Fixed Asset Investment Trends - Several major provinces, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, reported negative growth in fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's investment declining by 9.7% and Jiangsu by 3.9% [27][29]. - The downturn in real estate development investment significantly impacted overall fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's real estate investment dropping by 16.3% [28][29]. Regional Economic Disparities - While some provinces like Hubei and Hebei showed strong economic performance, with Hubei's GDP growth at 6.2% and Hebei's real estate investment increasing by 2.0%, others struggled with negative growth [8][34]. - The overall economic landscape indicates a need for targeted policies to stimulate consumer confidence and investment, particularly in regions facing economic challenges [32][34].

Economic Performance Overview - As of July 28, 2025, 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) reported their economic performance for the first half of the year, with significant growth in major economic provinces, although some provinces experienced fluctuations in their economic data [1] - Among the top eight economic provinces, all except Guangdong achieved GDP growth rates exceeding the national average of 5.3%, with growth rates of 5.6% and above [1][2] - Guangdong's GDP growth rate was 4.2%, ranking it among the bottom three provinces [1] Provincial GDP Growth - In the first half of 2025, 21 provinces exceeded their annual GDP growth targets set at the beginning of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving their full-year goals [1] - Notably, Tibet, Gansu, and Hubei had the highest GDP growth rates, all above 6% [2] - Hubei's GDP growth rate reached 6.2%, surpassing the national average by 0.9 percentage points [2] Consumption Trends - Nationally, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, with 19 provinces reporting retail sales growth above the national average of 5% [2] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption in several provinces, with retail sales of wearable smart devices and related products in Henan growing over 85% [3] Retail Sales Performance - Beijing and Tianjin reported negative growth in retail sales, with Beijing's retail sales declining by 3.8% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to significant drops in automotive and communication equipment sales [4][5] - Shanghai's retail sales growth was 1.7%, ranking it among the lowest in the country [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Despite strong economic growth, several provinces, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, experienced declines in fixed asset investment, with Guangdong's investment dropping by 9.7% [9][10] - The decline in real estate development investment was a major factor affecting fixed asset investment growth in these provinces [10] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in Beijing remained low, with the consumer confidence index below 100 for four consecutive quarters, indicating weak consumer sentiment [6][8] - The employment satisfaction index in Beijing hit a historical low of 75.2 in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting concerns over job security and income [5][6] Investment Opportunities - Some provinces, such as Beijing, reported strong fixed asset investment growth of 14.1%, driven by significant increases in equipment purchase investments [12] - Hebei's real estate development investment grew by 2.0%, supported by ongoing urban development projects [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival saw a significant increase, with total online retail sales reaching nearly 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [4][5] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program is expected to see a decline in funding in certain regions, with central government funds being allocated in the third and fourth quarters [6] - South Korea's exports rebounded significantly in the first 20 days of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, driven mainly by semiconductor exports [9] - The real estate market shows weak performance in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with second-hand housing sales becoming the dominant force [11] - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, reaching $78.9 per barrel, a 24.5% increase since the end of May [14] Summary by Sections E-commerce Growth - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 began on May 13, one week earlier than in 2024, leading to a notable increase in sales driven by government subsidies [4] - Total e-commerce sales during the event reached 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and 3C digital products [5] Old-for-New Subsidy Program - The central government plans to allocate approximately 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" program in the second half of the year, with an average monthly usage of around 23 billion yuan [6] South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports in June showed a strong recovery, particularly in semiconductors, which accounted for 22.9% of total exports [9] - Exports to the EU increased by 23.5%, while exports to China saw a slight decline of 1.0% [10] Real Estate Market Trends - The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes remains weak, with second-hand homes accounting for 58.2% of sales in major cities [11] - The average weekly transaction area for new homes in major cities was 300,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% [11] Crude Oil Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a direct impact on domestic inflation indicators [14]

Core Viewpoint - The economy is expected to achieve a "good start" in Q1, with GDP growth projected around 5.1%, exceeding the annual target growth rate [2][4]. Economic Outlook for Q1 - Q1 GDP growth is anticipated to be approximately 5.1%, slightly lower than the 5.4% in Q4 of the previous year [9]. - Industrial growth is expected to be strong at around 5.7%, driven by the "new economy," export incentives, and advancements in "hard technology" [4][9]. - Financial sector growth is projected to be below 6.5%, influenced by lower stock trading volumes and insurance premium income [4][9]. - Real estate growth is forecasted at 1%, down from 2% in Q4, primarily due to negative growth in new housing sales [4][9]. - Information technology, leasing, and business services are expected to maintain high growth rates [4][9]. Key Economic Data for March - CPI is expected to rebound from -0.7% to around -0.2%, while PPI is projected at -2.3% [5][12][13]. - Retail sales growth is anticipated to rise to 4.8%, driven by a surge in "trade-in" activities [5][20]. - Exports are projected to grow by 2.5%, while imports may decline by 5.5%, influenced by increased tariffs [5][15][16]. - Fixed asset investment growth is expected at 4.2%, with real estate investment declining by 10% [5][17]. - Industrial production growth is forecasted at 5.5%, supported by strong PMI indices [5][14]. Sector-Specific Insights - Retail sales are expected to benefit from accelerated "trade-in" programs, with significant increases in automotive and home appliance sales [20][21]. - Financial sector growth is projected to remain stable, with new social financing expected at 4.8 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase [22].