分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 证券Ⅱ zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2026 年 1 月回顾及 2 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -14% -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 相关报告 | 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 | 2025 年 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾及 2026 年 | 1 月前瞻》 2026-01-28 | | | 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 | 2025 年 | 11 月 | | 回顾及 12 月前瞻》 | 2025-12-26 | | | 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 | 2025 年 | 10 月 | | 回顾及 11 月前瞻》 | 2025-11-25 | | 联系人：李智 ⚫ 券商板块 2026 年 1 月行情回顾：1 月券商指数尝试转强但以失败 告终，全月在各行业指数中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a synchronized performance with the market [1]. Core Insights - The brokerage index attempted to strengthen in January 2026 but ultimately failed, resulting in a decline of 1.49%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.65% [5][8]. - The brokerage sector experienced increased differentiation, with a notable number of stocks outperforming the brokerage index, leading to a higher average P/B ratio fluctuating between 1.426 and 1.541 times [5][11][14]. - The overall market conditions for January 2026 were characterized by a significant increase in trading volumes and a record high in margin financing balances, indicating a robust trading environment despite the sector's overall weakness [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. January 2026 Brokerage Market Review - The brokerage index's performance was weak, with a 1.49% decline, ranking 28th among 30 industry indices [5][8]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.426 and 1.541 times, reflecting a slight increase in valuation [14]. - A total trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan was recorded, marking a 40.1% increase month-on-month [9]. 2. Key Market Factors Impacting January 2026 Performance - The equity market faced resistance after an initial rise, while the fixed income market showed signs of mild recovery, contributing to a rebound in proprietary trading [7][18]. - The average daily trading volume reached a historical high of 3.05 trillion yuan, with a total monthly trading volume of 60.90 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in brokerage activity [26]. - Margin financing balances reached 27,153 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.9% month-on-month increase and a 53.1% year-on-year increase [30]. 3. February 2026 Performance Outlook for Listed Brokerages - Proprietary trading is expected to decline due to a cooling equity market, while brokerage activity may experience a seasonal drop in performance [7][40]. - The brokerage index is anticipated to face continued weakness, with a potential drop in overall monthly performance expected to return to relative lows seen in the previous 12 months [7][45]. - The report suggests that if the brokerage sector's valuation drops to 1.3x P/B, it may present a good opportunity for re-entry, particularly for leading firms with strong wealth management capabilities [7].

Performance Overview - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the year 2025 to be between 400 million to 480 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.70% to 95.24%. The non-recurring net profit is anticipated to grow by 100.08% to 138.19% year-on-year, driven by an overall upturn in the capital market and increased revenue from wealth management and securities investment businesses [2]. Subsidiary Development - The company's subsidiary, Zhongzhou Blue Ocean Investment Management Co., Ltd., has repeatedly reduced its registered capital since 2025, with a cumulative decrease of over 27%. This adjustment aims to optimize the parent company's capital utilization efficiency, but it may have a certain impact on the subsidiary's business expansion [3]. Stock Performance - As of February 11, 2026, the A-shares of the company experienced a price increase of 2.31% from February 4 to February 11, while the Hong Kong shares rose by 1.85% during the same period. On February 11, there was a net outflow of 1.8465 million yuan from the main funds in A-shares, while retail investors showed a net inflow [4]. Industry Policy and Environment - Dongwu Securities released an industry commentary on February 10, 2026, indicating that the optimization of refinancing measures by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges may indirectly benefit the brokerage sector, including the company. However, attention should be paid to regulatory compliance requirements [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the adjustment of the minimum margin requirement for margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, increasing from 80% to 100% for new margin contracts, which reflects a regulatory approach to manage market leverage and stabilize investor expectations [1][2] - The adjustment is seen as a response to the rising financing balance and trading proportion at the beginning of the year, indicating that financing is a significant source of incremental funds for the market [1][2] - Analysts from various securities firms express optimism about the brokerage sector, suggesting that despite a potential short-term slowdown in margin financing growth, the overall business environment is expected to stabilize, with a focus on capital strength and risk control capabilities of leading brokerages [2] Group 2 - The adjustment is compared to a similar measure in 2015, which is believed to help smooth short-term volatility and guide the market towards a healthier and more sustainable medium to long-term trend [1] - The article lists several Chinese brokerage firms that are relevant to the Hong Kong stock market, including Huatai Securities, GF Securities, China Galaxy, and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [3]

Industry Investment Rating - Neutral | Initial Rating [2] Core Insights - Brokerage business revenue is showing elasticity, with high trading volumes in stock funds directly boosting commission income, particularly benefiting brokers with a higher proportion of retail clients such as Dongfang Caifu, Huatai, and Guotai Junan [5] - Margin financing business is expected to restart expansion, with market activity and stabilized indices boosting financing demand; the current CSI 300 index has stabilized above 4,500 points, enhancing collateral value [5] - The current sector PE has not risen rapidly, indicating that funds are entering the market in a "trading" rather than "chasing high" manner, which is favorable for market sustainability and reduces the risk of brokers chasing high prices [5] - The fundamentals of the brokerage sector are stable and improving, with brokerage stocks exhibiting high beta characteristics; it is recommended to actively position in comprehensive leading brokers in the short term [5] Industry Fundamentals Tracking - SHIBOR 3M rate remained stable at 1.58%, reflecting a continued loose liquidity environment in the interbank market, consistent with the central bank's policy to smooth funding through open market operations [6][14] - The margin financing balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 25,014.04 billion, showing a slight decrease of 0.26% but remaining stable overall; this balance accounts for 2.54% of the A-share circulating market value, indicating neutral participation of leveraged funds [18] - Recent bond market indices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the China Bond New Comprehensive Index rising from 247.92 in early October to 248.83 by December 12, reflecting a liquidity-rich environment [19] - As of December 12, daily bond trading in the Shenzhen market reached 3,212.8 billion, while the Shanghai market reached 25.17 trillion, with repos dominating trading volume [19] Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan Securities II industry index rose by 0.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.08%, with a relative outperformance of 0.39 percentage points [25] - In terms of industry ranking, the A-share Securities II ranked 8th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, underperforming the non-bank financial sector [26] - The Hong Kong securities and brokerage sector rose by 2.254%, exceeding the overall financial sector's growth [26]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rally on September 11, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which surged by 5.15%, indicating a strong inflow of funds into stock ETFs, totaling 15.611 billion yuan [1][2]. ETF Market Overview - As of September 11, the total scale of all stock ETFs in the market reached 4.32 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 15.611 billion yuan on that day [2]. - The Hong Kong market ETFs saw the largest net inflow, amounting to 7.359 billion yuan, with innovative drug-related products attracting significant investment despite a drop in the sector [2]. Sector-Specific Inflows - The innovative drug ETFs led the inflow, with the Guangfa Fund's Hong Kong innovative drug ETF receiving a net inflow of 2.297 billion yuan, while the Yinhua Fund's similar ETF saw 1.051 billion yuan [2]. - Broad-based ETFs also performed well, with a net inflow of 5.396 billion yuan, particularly the ETF tracking the CSI A500 index, which attracted 2.524 billion yuan [2]. Broker and Battery Sector Performance - The brokerage sector, referred to as the "bull market flag bearer," saw multiple securities ETFs experience net inflows, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect non-bank ETF accumulating over 1 billion yuan in net purchases over three consecutive trading days [3]. - The battery sector also received substantial investment, with Guangfa Fund's battery ETF attracting 507 million yuan, making it the largest battery ETF in the market with a total scale of 9.952 billion yuan [3]. Fund Management Insights - E Fund's ETFs saw significant inflows, with the medical ETF gaining 370 million yuan and the Hang Seng Technology ETF receiving 280 million yuan [4]. - Guangfa Fund led the market with a total net inflow of 3.7 billion yuan across its ETFs, focusing on leading products in the innovative drug and battery sectors [5]. Market Outlook - The liquidity easing is expected to provide valuation support for A-shares, with potential for a continued upward trend in the market driven by favorable policies and improved market conditions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance in the morning session, with brokerage stocks rebounding after hitting lows, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices exhibited varied movements, with brokerage stocks recovering from recent lows, such as Pacific Securities rising over 2% and Guotai Junan gaining over 1% [1] - The brokerage ETF (159842) experienced a slight decline, but it has seen continuous net inflows for six weeks, accumulating over 1.8 billion yuan and increasing its product share by over 1.5 billion units, reaching new highs [1] Group 2: Brokerage Sector Insights - Recent reports indicate that listed brokerages performed "better than expected" in the first half of the year, with both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders showing significant growth, boosting market confidence [1] - Leading brokerages demonstrated stable performance, with some achieving rapid growth through mergers and acquisitions, while a number of smaller brokerages also showed strong earnings resilience [1] - The brokerage sector is characterized by a strong beta attribute, with its main business performance closely linked to capital market activities; as global liquidity narratives align, capital market transactions are heating up, leading to an increase in market risk appetite and a recovery in the securities industry's prosperity [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The brokerage ETF (159842) tracks the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, which includes up to 50 securities company stocks from the CSI All Share sample, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [1] - Investors can also access the brokerage sector's upward opportunities through the brokerage ETF linked funds (Class A: 025193; Class C: 025194) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is experiencing positive momentum, with significant increases in stock prices and strong earnings reported by major firms, driven by a recovering A-share market and regulatory support for long-term investments [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 29, 2025, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index rose by 0.81%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Huaxi Securities (up 4.60%) and Dongfang Caifu (up 4.18%) [1]. - The securities ETF managed by Harvest (562870) saw a trading volume of 581.71 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.29% [1]. - Over the past 20 trading days, the securities ETF has attracted a total of 87.83 million yuan in inflows [1]. Group 2: Earnings Reports - Among the 36 companies in the securities company index that have disclosed their mid-year reports for 2025, all reported positive earnings, with Jinlong Co. showing the highest net profit growth of 13,993% year-on-year [3]. - Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng also reported net profit increases exceeding 10 times compared to the previous year [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory approach is characterized by a dual mechanism of "positive incentives and negative constraints," encouraging securities firms to enhance their equity investment and wealth management services while imposing stricter penalties on major violations [4]. - New regulations aim to purify the industry ecosystem and promote compliance and risk management among institutions, thereby protecting the rights of small investors and fostering a competitive environment that favors high-quality firms [4].

Core Insights - Southwest Securities reported a revenue increase of 26.23% year-on-year to 1.504 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.23 billion yuan, up 24.36% year-on-year [1][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 66.45 million yuan, accounting for 15.7% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1][6] - The stock price of Southwest Securities is currently below 5 yuan per share, with a year-to-date increase of no more than 4% [1][6] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the net income from various business segments was as follows: brokerage 333 million yuan, investment banking 99 million yuan, asset management 9 million yuan, proprietary trading 622 million yuan, and credit business 234 million yuan [3] - Total assets as of June 30 were 92.104 billion yuan, with net assets of 25.738 billion yuan and a weighted average return on equity of 1.63% [3] Corporate Governance - There was a management change in May, with Li Jun resigning from the position of Secretary of the Board and Wang Lingfei appointed as the new Secretary [3] Regulatory Compliance - Southwest Securities faced regulatory scrutiny for compliance issues in its business operations, leading to corrective measures being implemented [4] - The company has submitted written reports to regulatory authorities detailing its rectification efforts [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher on August 12, with all three major indices rising collectively [1] - The broker ETF (159842) experienced a slight decline of 0.26% as of the report, with a premium trading occurrence at the beginning of the session [1] - The broker ETF has seen a net inflow of over 208 million yuan in the first 11 days of August, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - Open-source securities noted a significant expansion in the margin financing scale, suggesting further growth potential in the broker sector [2] - Huatai Securities reported a 71% year-on-year increase in new account openings in July, with margin financing balance surpassing 1.99 trillion yuan, indicating a rising market risk appetite [2] - The broker sector's return on equity (ROE) is entering an upward phase, with expectations of stronger stability and sustainability in earnings during the current market cycle [2]