跟随房产君，看看今天有哪些大事小情发生： 【秋季预算案重磅发布】 今天，全英国都在屏息等待一件大事——秋季预算案的发布。 相比往年，今年的预算可谓"非比寻常"，并引发了空前的关注。 不仅各大媒体频繁释放各类政策信号，期间还交织着诸多争议，舆论场呈现出前所未有的活跃度。正式发布日期也一拖再拖，吊足了公众胃口。可以说， 还没有哪份预算案在发布前就能如此"热闹"。 为什么这份预算案会引起如此大的关注？ 主要原因在于，各方传言都指向财相雷切尔·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）可能再次推动"加税"，包括开征"豪宅税"、"租金税"等新税种，以弥补巨大的财 政"黑洞"。 ... 秋季预算案重磅发布，现场状况连连，财相尚未讲话内容就提前泄露... 预算案增税260亿英镑，新增"豪宅税"，"电动汽车消费税" 在预算案公布前夕，一位国际买家"低调"购入伦敦骑士桥价值2,500万英镑的顶层公寓... 伦敦的租赁市场在国内租户中显示出复苏迹象，如今仍然是英国最大的租赁中心... 要知道，在去年10月工党发布的首份预算中，里夫斯刚刚通过政策调整增税了400亿英镑。若今年再度加码，其影响将不言而喻。 其实，这种影响在预算公布前就已经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the interest rate at 4.0% in the upcoming decision, but recent comments from Chancellor Reeves have increased the likelihood of an unexpected rate cut [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut this week has risen to nearly 35%, up from 30% earlier in the week, according to LSEG data [1] - Analysts suggest that recent data indicates easing inflationary pressures, contributing to the increased expectations for a rate cut [1] Group 2: Fiscal Measures and Tax Implications - Chancellor Reeves stated that measures in the budget will reduce both debt and inflation, which raises the possibility of increased income tax [1] - The market's anticipation of potential further tax increases by Reeves has also influenced the outlook for a rate cut this week [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing financial crisis in the U.S., with record national debt and increasing fiscal deficits, leading to a situation where each American carries approximately $110,000 in debt [1][3] - It discusses the disparity between the financial struggles of the nation and the wealth accumulation of major financial institutions and wealthy families, indicating a tight bond between politics and capital [3][5] - The article critiques the political landscape, where tax reforms aimed at the wealthy are consistently blocked, resulting in a growing budget deficit and wealth inequality [5][7] Financial Situation - The U.S. Treasury reported that interest payments for 2024 will exceed $870 billion, marking a historical high and surpassing military spending [3] - The wealth distribution is stark, with the top 10% of households holding nearly 70% of the wealth, while the bottom half collectively holds less than 3% [7] Political Dynamics - The 2024 presidential election campaign is projected to exceed $16 billion, primarily funded by large corporations and wealthy individuals, influencing political decisions [3][5] - Media narratives often support the wealthy, promoting the idea that protecting the rich is synonymous with protecting jobs, which misleads the public [5][7] Social Implications - The article notes a significant increase in homelessness, with over 75,000 homeless individuals in Los Angeles alone, highlighting the failure to address basic social needs [7] - It draws a parallel to historical figures like Franklin D. Roosevelt, suggesting that current politicians lack the courage to implement necessary reforms to address wealth inequality and social welfare [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, is committed to controlling inflation and alleviating the cost of living through measures in the upcoming budget, aiming to create room for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Group 1: Budget Measures - Reeves plans to implement targeted price measures in the budget to reduce household bills and overall inflation [1] - The Treasury is considering lowering electricity costs as part of the strategy to help decrease inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Reeves attributes part of the fiscal gap to economic losses from Brexit and anticipates that the Office for Budget Responsibility will revise down productivity growth forecasts [1] - A significant tax increase is being prepared for the budget scheduled for November 26 [1] Group 3: Policy Review - Reeves will meet with cabinet ministers to review decisions in their respective policy areas that may contribute to inflation or rising costs [1]

Economic Performance - The UK economy showed strong performance at the beginning of 2025, but growth slowed in the second quarter, with GDP growth at 0.3% year-on-year compared to 0.7% in the first quarter [1] - The overall economic growth for 2024 remains unchanged at 1.1%, while the GDP growth for the year ending June 2025 was revised up from 1.2% to 1.4% [1] G7 Economic Ranking - In the first half of 2025, the UK had the fastest economic growth among G7 countries, driven partly by one-off factors such as a surge in exports before US tariffs took effect [2] - The Bank of England forecasts a moderate economic growth of 1.25% for the entire year of 2025 [2] Consumer and Business Sentiment - The economic outlook for the second half of the year is expected to be more challenging, with predicted growth of only 0.2% due to slowing wage growth and rising inflation [2] - Household savings rate increased slightly from 10.5% in Q1 to 10.7% in Q2, indicating consumer concerns about the future [2] Taxation Expectations - Economists anticipate that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will need to raise hundreds of billions of pounds in taxes in the upcoming budget to meet deficit reduction goals [3] - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) may adopt a more pessimistic view on future productivity and economic growth [3] Current Account Deficit - The UK's current account deficit reached £28.939 billion (approximately $38.9 billion) in Q2 2025, the highest level in two years, with the deficit as a percentage of GDP rising from 2.8% in Q1 to 3.8% [5] - The increase in the deficit is primarily attributed to higher dividend payments to foreign investors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has fallen to a three-month low against the euro due to increasing market concerns over potential interest rate cuts and tax hikes in the UK [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Market fears are growing that the Bank of England may accelerate interest rate cuts, particularly if the labor market weakens significantly [1] - Recent data showed weak economic growth in the UK for May, raising the likelihood of a rate cut in August [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - There is an increasing risk of tax increases in the autumn as the government seeks to address fiscal shortfalls [1] - The upcoming employment data release is deemed crucial in determining the trajectory of monetary policy [1]