来源：洪运的投资笔记 | 洞察·穿透·布局 —游戏行业独立分析师，10年大厂从业/二级市场从业经验 前言：利益相关，腾讯持有者，价值投资者，永远以价值为锚去做投资。 一句话总结：加税谣言导致的错杀，该加仓就加仓，别人恐慌我疯狂。 想必大家周末被腾讯红包骚扰了一通吧，抢了几块？金叔反正只有8块，周末元宝和AI相关在二级群里 发酵的比较厉害，本来期待周一能有一波表现，谁都没想到周二上午迎来了一波大跌，腾讯直接跌6个 点到560，直接破位，原因其实有很多，接下来听金叔一条条给大家分析分析。 一．加税谣言 最夸张的谣言是游戏要从6%加税到32%，私以为这是不靠谱的，最初是雪球的一篇文章的谣言，而且 也没有32%的档次，并且游戏的现在综合税率也不是6%，大部分公司的收入其实很复杂，大厂的真实 税率早就在15%-25%的这个档次了。再往上提的空间不大。并且加税不是这么简单的事情。 但是有一个逻辑是通的，就是前两天，通信商的增值税从6%调到了9%，最高是13%，有人自然而然就 把他类比到游戏了，并且有某家首席周末在传销这个概念。 这是个事情的核心是2026年1月1日起施行的《中华人民共和国增值税法》，感兴趣的可以去翻一翻原 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Autumn Budget has generated unprecedented attention due to speculation about potential tax increases, including a "mansion tax" and "rental tax," aimed at addressing a significant fiscal deficit [4][6][7]. Group 1: Budget Overview - The budget is expected to raise £26 billion in taxes by the fiscal year 2029-30, with various tax measures introduced [10]. - The budget process was marked by a leak from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), causing temporary fluctuations in the financial markets [8][7]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - OBR forecasts an inflation rate of 3.5% for this year, slightly above the previous estimate of 3.2%, with a drop to 0.4% expected next year [13]. - GDP growth is projected at 1.5% for 2025, with subsequent years showing growth rates of 1.4% in 2026, 1.6% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028 and 2029 [13]. Group 3: Tax Measures - A new "mansion tax" will be levied on high-value properties, expected to raise over £400 million by 2031, affecting less than 1% of properties valued over £2 million [26]. - The introduction of an electric vehicle consumption tax will charge 3 pence per mile for pure electric vehicles and 1.5 pence for plug-in hybrids, aimed at doubling road maintenance funding [30]. - Remote gambling tax rates will increase from 21% to 40%, and online betting tax rates will rise from 15% to 25%, projected to generate over £1 billion annually by 2031 [32]. Group 4: Public Services and Welfare - The government will allocate £500 million for secondary school libraries and £18 million for upgrading playgrounds across England [18]. - A new "youth guarantee" program will be funded with £820 million over three years to support apprenticeships for those under 25 [20]. - The government plans to restore face-to-face assessments for disability benefits and reform the universal credit system to help 15,000 people return to work [20]. Group 5: Real Estate Market Insights - An international buyer purchased a £25 million penthouse in Knightsbridge, indicating a growing demand for luxury properties in prime locations [38][40]. - The London rental market is showing signs of recovery, with a 13% increase in searches for rental villas and a 4% increase for apartments over the past two years [42].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the interest rate at 4.0% in the upcoming decision, but recent comments from Chancellor Reeves have increased the likelihood of an unexpected rate cut [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut this week has risen to nearly 35%, up from 30% earlier in the week, according to LSEG data [1] - Analysts suggest that recent data indicates easing inflationary pressures, contributing to the increased expectations for a rate cut [1] Group 2: Fiscal Measures and Tax Implications - Chancellor Reeves stated that measures in the budget will reduce both debt and inflation, which raises the possibility of increased income tax [1] - The market's anticipation of potential further tax increases by Reeves has also influenced the outlook for a rate cut this week [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing financial crisis in the U.S., with record national debt and increasing fiscal deficits, leading to a situation where each American carries approximately $110,000 in debt [1][3] - It discusses the disparity between the financial struggles of the nation and the wealth accumulation of major financial institutions and wealthy families, indicating a tight bond between politics and capital [3][5] - The article critiques the political landscape, where tax reforms aimed at the wealthy are consistently blocked, resulting in a growing budget deficit and wealth inequality [5][7] Financial Situation - The U.S. Treasury reported that interest payments for 2024 will exceed $870 billion, marking a historical high and surpassing military spending [3] - The wealth distribution is stark, with the top 10% of households holding nearly 70% of the wealth, while the bottom half collectively holds less than 3% [7] Political Dynamics - The 2024 presidential election campaign is projected to exceed $16 billion, primarily funded by large corporations and wealthy individuals, influencing political decisions [3][5] - Media narratives often support the wealthy, promoting the idea that protecting the rich is synonymous with protecting jobs, which misleads the public [5][7] Social Implications - The article notes a significant increase in homelessness, with over 75,000 homeless individuals in Los Angeles alone, highlighting the failure to address basic social needs [7] - It draws a parallel to historical figures like Franklin D. Roosevelt, suggesting that current politicians lack the courage to implement necessary reforms to address wealth inequality and social welfare [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, is committed to controlling inflation and alleviating the cost of living through measures in the upcoming budget, aiming to create room for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Group 1: Budget Measures - Reeves plans to implement targeted price measures in the budget to reduce household bills and overall inflation [1] - The Treasury is considering lowering electricity costs as part of the strategy to help decrease inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Reeves attributes part of the fiscal gap to economic losses from Brexit and anticipates that the Office for Budget Responsibility will revise down productivity growth forecasts [1] - A significant tax increase is being prepared for the budget scheduled for November 26 [1] Group 3: Policy Review - Reeves will meet with cabinet ministers to review decisions in their respective policy areas that may contribute to inflation or rising costs [1]

Economic Performance - The UK economy showed strong performance at the beginning of 2025, but growth slowed in the second quarter, with GDP growth at 0.3% year-on-year compared to 0.7% in the first quarter [1] - The overall economic growth for 2024 remains unchanged at 1.1%, while the GDP growth for the year ending June 2025 was revised up from 1.2% to 1.4% [1] G7 Economic Ranking - In the first half of 2025, the UK had the fastest economic growth among G7 countries, driven partly by one-off factors such as a surge in exports before US tariffs took effect [2] - The Bank of England forecasts a moderate economic growth of 1.25% for the entire year of 2025 [2] Consumer and Business Sentiment - The economic outlook for the second half of the year is expected to be more challenging, with predicted growth of only 0.2% due to slowing wage growth and rising inflation [2] - Household savings rate increased slightly from 10.5% in Q1 to 10.7% in Q2, indicating consumer concerns about the future [2] Taxation Expectations - Economists anticipate that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will need to raise hundreds of billions of pounds in taxes in the upcoming budget to meet deficit reduction goals [3] - The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) may adopt a more pessimistic view on future productivity and economic growth [3] Current Account Deficit - The UK's current account deficit reached £28.939 billion (approximately $38.9 billion) in Q2 2025, the highest level in two years, with the deficit as a percentage of GDP rising from 2.8% in Q1 to 3.8% [5] - The increase in the deficit is primarily attributed to higher dividend payments to foreign investors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has fallen to a three-month low against the euro due to increasing market concerns over potential interest rate cuts and tax hikes in the UK [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Market fears are growing that the Bank of England may accelerate interest rate cuts, particularly if the labor market weakens significantly [1] - Recent data showed weak economic growth in the UK for May, raising the likelihood of a rate cut in August [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - There is an increasing risk of tax increases in the autumn as the government seeks to address fiscal shortfalls [1] - The upcoming employment data release is deemed crucial in determining the trajectory of monetary policy [1]