来源：滚动播报 Madison Investments的固定收益部门负责人迈克·桑德斯(Mike Sanders)在一份报告中称，美国国债收益 率曲线的持续陡峭化凸显了有关货币政策举措影响的一个要点。他说："政策举措可以对收益率曲线前 端产生重大影响，但包括高于目标的通胀和巨额财政赤字在内的长期结构性问题，将对后端构成持续压 力。"他表示，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)承认劳动力市场走软，这很快为债券市场带来 了买盘，扭转了美国国债最初的跌势，并使收益率曲线变得更加陡峭。Madison预计，美联储此后的进 一步宽松步伐将会放缓，并预计该央行将按兵不动直至2026年第二季度。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that U.S. economic activity has remained largely flat since September, with overall employment stability, but an increase in reported layoffs raises concerns about a potential softening in the labor market [1][1][1] Economic Activity - Economic activity in the U.S. has been stable since September, as reported in the Beige Book [1] - The report reflects information collected from commercial and community contacts by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks up to October 6 [1] Employment Trends - Overall employment has remained stable; however, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of companies reporting layoffs [1] - This rise in layoffs contributes to growing market concerns regarding the labor market's strength [1] Importance of the Report - The Beige Book is typically released two weeks before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meetings, serving as a timely reference for assessing the U.S. economic situation [1] - Due to the government shutdown, the release of key inflation data (CPI) has been delayed to October 24, making the Beige Book's insights particularly significant for Federal Reserve decision-makers [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding $4500, if central bank gold reserves reach half of their historical high of 75% [1][2] - Gold prices have recently reached historical highs, with spot prices surpassing $3600, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are influenced by a projected downward revision of non-farm employment data, which could lead to a higher unemployment rate in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The political interference in the Federal Reserve, particularly with President Trump's actions, is undermining market confidence in the Fed's independence, which may accelerate rate cuts and weaken the dollar [2] - The increase in gold prices has led to a situation where global central bank reserves in gold have surpassed U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years [2]

Core Viewpoint - The unemployment rate in Switzerland saw a slight increase in June, following a revision of May's rate from 2.9% to 2.8%, indicating a softening labor market consistent with trends in other major economies over the past year [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate in June rose slightly, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges [1] - The revision of May's unemployment rate from 2.9% to 2.8% suggests a more favorable previous condition than initially reported [1] - The labor market's softening aligns with similar trends observed in other major economies during the past year [1]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 14,000 to 240,000, the highest level since April, indicating a potential rise in the unemployment rate this month [1][4] - The number of continuing jobless claims rose by 26,000 to 1.92 million, exceeding the expected median of 1.89 million, suggesting increasing layoffs and a weakening labor market [1][4] - The median duration of unemployment increased from 9.8 weeks in March to 10.4 weeks in April, indicating that many unemployed individuals are facing prolonged joblessness [4] Group 2 - Economists expect that due to seasonal adjustment difficulties, the number of unemployment claims in June may exceed the range of 205,000 to 243,000 [4][5] - Despite concerns about the labor market weakening, a survey indicated that 83% of CEOs anticipate a recession in the next 12-18 months, yet most do not expect significant layoffs [5] - The U.S. GDP for the first quarter was revised to a 0.2% annualized decline, an improvement from the initial estimate of a 0.3% contraction, highlighting economic challenges [5]