当地时间11月26日，美联储发布经济状况褐皮书。褐皮书显示，十二个联邦储备区中的大多数报告显示，经 济活动与上一份报告相比变化不大，但有两个区报告略有下降，一个区报告略有增长。虽然高端零售支出依 然保持韧性，但美国总体消费支出进一步下降。 一些零售商指出，政府"停摆"对消费者购买力产生了负面影响。此外，制造业和零售业出现广泛成本上涨压 力，反映出关税引起的成本增加。展望未来，联邦储备区所联系的企业大多预期成本上涨压力会持续。 美联储 资料图 根据美国"联邦储备法"，美国全国划分为12个联邦储备区，每区设立一家联邦储备银行。该报告根据12家联 邦储备银行的最新调查结果编制而成，也称"褐皮书"。 （央视新闻） ...

美国哥伦比亚广播公司也于19日报道说，多项数据显示美国民众的"生活负担正在加剧"，核心民生领域的价格不断上涨。截至9月份，美国食品价格总体 上比2022年1月高出18%以上。育儿成本也在激增，2024年每个孩子的年度平均保育费用超过13000美元，比2020年增长了约30%。医疗保险成本也在上 涨，美国两党在医保相关福利支出等方面的分歧，导致中低收入家庭的医保保费可能从2025年的平均888美元上涨到2026年的平均1904美元。在燃气水电 等开支上，美国民众今年平均每月的花费比去年上涨了12%。美媒表示，持续上涨的生活成本正让美国民众陷入一场难以缓解的"负担能力危机"。 民调数据显示，76%的受访者认为美国经济状况"不佳"，较7月的67%进一步上升。关于各项生活成本，78%的受访者表示燃气水电等成本上涨，67%的受 访者表示医疗成本上涨，66%的受访者表示住房成本上涨。有46%的受访者认为特朗普政府的经济政策"让经济状况恶化"，认为其起到了积极效果的受访 者比例仅为15%。 （央视财经《正点财经》）19日，美国福克斯新闻网站公布的最新民调显示，超七成美国民众认为美国经济状况"不佳"。多数受访者表示，各项生活 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, which are crucial for economic assessment and policy-making [1][2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the lack of government data could complicate the Fed's ability to make informed decisions, especially if the shutdown persists [1] Economic Data Impact - The Labor Department's September report showed a significant drop in non-farm employment, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, a sharp decline from the revised 79,000 in July, and below market expectations [2] - The CPI for August rose by 2.9% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since January and remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis points rate cut due to the ongoing weakness in the employment market [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that U.S. economic activity has remained largely flat since September, with overall employment stability, but an increase in reported layoffs raises concerns about a potential softening in the labor market [1][1][1] Economic Activity - Economic activity in the U.S. has been stable since September, as reported in the Beige Book [1] - The report reflects information collected from commercial and community contacts by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks up to October 6 [1] Employment Trends - Overall employment has remained stable; however, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of companies reporting layoffs [1] - This rise in layoffs contributes to growing market concerns regarding the labor market's strength [1] Importance of the Report - The Beige Book is typically released two weeks before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meetings, serving as a timely reference for assessing the U.S. economic situation [1] - Due to the government shutdown, the release of key inflation data (CPI) has been delayed to October 24, making the Beige Book's insights particularly significant for Federal Reserve decision-makers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is demonstrating stronger performance than previously anticipated, leading traders to reassess the potential trajectory of interest rates for the upcoming year [1] Economic Outlook - The current economic strength is prompting a reconsideration of how low interest rates may need to be adjusted in the next year [1]

Core Points - The article discusses President Trump's response to recent polls indicating that over half of respondents believe the economy has worsened during his administration [1][3] - Trump criticized the polling methods of Fox News, suggesting they need to find a new pollster due to the negative results [3] - Other media outlets also report a negative perception of the economy, with CBS and NBC polls showing 56% and 61% dissatisfaction with the government's handling of economic issues, respectively [3] Group 1 - Recent polls indicate that 52% of respondents believe the Trump administration has worsened the economy, while only 30% think it has improved [3] - Trump claims that the economic impact of his administration's policies will be felt once new factories are operational [3] - The Trump administration's tariffs and immigration policies have negatively affected the agricultural sector, contributing to rising grocery prices [4] Group 2 - Trump's comments reflect a broader trend of dissatisfaction with economic conditions among the American public, as indicated by multiple polls [3][4] - The article highlights a disconnect between the administration's claims of economic improvement and public sentiment, which remains largely negative [4]

Core Insights - The conflicting results from U.S. retail sales and non-farm payroll reports have led to market uncertainty regarding the true state of the economy [1][2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is highly anticipated for insights on economic conditions [1] Retail Sales Data - July retail sales report indicates resilience in U.S. consumer spending, with a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 2% even after adjusting for inflation [2] - Despite previous weak sales in imported categories like furniture and electronics, July saw a rebound in furniture sales, while electronics continued to show negative growth [2] - Bank of America reported a nearly 2% increase in debit and credit card spending in July, marking the fastest growth since January [2] Employment Data - Non-farm payroll data for July showed an addition of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations and marking a nine-month low, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 [2] - The decline in employment growth contrasts sharply with stable consumer spending, raising questions about the underlying economic fundamentals [2] Analytical Frameworks for Data Discrepancy - Analysts propose four potential explanations for the divergence between consumption and employment data: 1. Job declines may reflect a reduction in labor supply rather than weak demand, which would not be evident in consumer spending [3] 2. Consumer spending may increasingly be driven by high-income groups, potentially underestimating economic weakness reflected in employment reports [3] 3. Strong household balance sheets allow families to maintain spending levels despite slowing economic and job growth, as indicated by declining delinquency rates in various loan categories [3] 4. Ultimately, consumption is expected to slow to align with employment trends, as weak labor markets and rising prices for tariff-affected goods may lead to stagnant real incomes [3]

Group 1 - Investors are assessing the US economic conditions under moderate inflation and recent trade agreements, leading to a slight increase in US Treasury prices and a decline in yields [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.011%, the 10-year yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.475%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 2.5 basis points to 4.918% [1] - Mortgage demand in the US has risen for the second consecutive week, indicating that potential buyers are attracted by the increased supply of homes for sale [3] Group 2 - The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.84% to 6.86%, which is 22 basis points higher than the same period last year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below economists' expectations of 2.4% and reflects the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - Housing costs were the main driver of inflation in April, despite a decrease in gasoline prices [3] Group 3 - Economists are looking for early signs of tariffs affecting US households, as tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation data is still not fully reflected and may become apparent by June [4] - The UK central bank's chief economist expressed concerns that inflation in the UK may be stronger than expected, potentially requiring higher interest rates than investors anticipate [5] Group 4 - The US Treasury is set to issue a $60 billion 17-week short-term debt on May 14, with additional bonds totaling $160 billion to be issued on May 15 [7]

Core Insights - A majority of small businesses in the U.S. are pessimistic about the current economic conditions, with only 30% rating the economy as excellent or good [1] - Concerns over trade policies and tariffs are prevalent, with 51% of small business owners expecting negative impacts on their operations in the next 12 months [1] - Financial pressure is significant among small business owners, with 60% feeling some level of stress regarding their financial situation [1] Economic Sentiment - 70% of small business owners perceive the current economic situation as average or poor [1] - Only 30% of small business owners believe the economy is in excellent or good condition [1] Trade Policy Impact - 66% of small business owners have already felt or anticipate being affected by tariff policies [1] - 51% expect changes in trade policies to negatively impact their businesses within the next year [1] Financial Pressure - 60% of small business owners report feeling significant or some financial pressure recently [1] - 63% express that they feel significant or some pressure regarding their financial situation [1] - Inflation and tariffs are identified as the primary factors contributing to this financial stress [1]