The U.S. economy is looking stronger than many people previously thought, which is giving way to a reconsideration by traders of how low interest rates might need to go into next year. ...

据报道，特朗普18日在英国接受美国福克斯新闻节目专访。特朗普谈论政府正在增加制造业就业岗位时，节目主持人玛莎·麦卡勒姆对特朗 普说，"你认为人们什么时候能够感受到效果？我们确实看到经济领域的民调数据不佳。福克斯最近的民调显示，52%的受访者认为本届政 府执政期间经济状况恶化。失业率已达近四年新高，食品价格大幅上涨。总统先生，您刚才提到的这些计划何时能让民众感受到效果？" 对此，特朗普回答说，"等工厂开始运转的时候。现在我们正在建设新的工厂。至于福克斯民调，我必须说这是我见到过的最差劲民调，我 以前就提过，大选期间他们说我以微弱优势领先，而不是大幅领先。我已告诉过鲁伯特·默多克：快找个新民调员，现在这个简直烂透了。 这种情况持续很多年了。" 【环球网报道】据美国《新闻周刊》报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间9月18日接受福克斯新闻网采访，主持人提到近期民调显示过半受访者 认为本届政府执政期间美国经济状况恶化。对此，特朗普要求福克斯新闻网换个民意调查员。 据报道，福克斯新闻网9月6日至9日进行的全国民调显示，52%受访者认为特朗普政府使经济状况恶化，30%的受访者认为特朗普政府改善 了经济，18%的人则认为没有变化。值 ...

美国零售销售与非农报告的结果自相矛盾，引发市场对经济真实状况的分歧判断。美联储主席鲍威尔将 于周五在怀俄明州发表讲话，市场密切关注其对经济形势的最新表态。 市场分析师提出四种可能解释消费与就业数据背离的框架。 第一，就业下降可能反映工人供给减少而非潜在需求疲软，因此不会在消费支出中体现。 第二，消费支出越来越多地由最富裕消费群体推动，销售数据可能低估了就业报告中反映的经济疲软。 美国银行按收入水平细分的信用卡和借记卡支出数据支持了这一观点。 分析师指出，消费支出主要由高收入群体推动可能掩盖了经济中的潜在疲软，而家庭资产负债表的韧性 使消费者能够在就业增长放缓的情况下维持正常支出水平。 消费与就业数据释放矛盾信号 据见闻稍早前文章，7月零售销售报告显示美国消费支出保持韧性。尽管此前6月数据显示进口依赖类别 如家具和电子产品销售疲软，但7月报告中家具销售出现反弹，电子产品销售仍然负增长。即使调整通 胀因素，零售销售仍以约2%的年增长率增长。 美国银行数据显示，其借记卡和信用卡支出在7月增长近2%，创今年1月以来最快增速。这一私人数据 与官方零售销售数据相互印证了消费支出的稳定性。 然而非农就业数据呈现截然不同的趋 ...

Group 1 - Investors are assessing the US economic conditions under moderate inflation and recent trade agreements, leading to a slight increase in US Treasury prices and a decline in yields [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.011%, the 10-year yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.475%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 2.5 basis points to 4.918% [1] - Mortgage demand in the US has risen for the second consecutive week, indicating that potential buyers are attracted by the increased supply of homes for sale [3] Group 2 - The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.84% to 6.86%, which is 22 basis points higher than the same period last year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below economists' expectations of 2.4% and reflects the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - Housing costs were the main driver of inflation in April, despite a decrease in gasoline prices [3] Group 3 - Economists are looking for early signs of tariffs affecting US households, as tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation data is still not fully reflected and may become apparent by June [4] - The UK central bank's chief economist expressed concerns that inflation in the UK may be stronger than expected, potentially requiring higher interest rates than investors anticipate [5] Group 4 - The US Treasury is set to issue a $60 billion 17-week short-term debt on May 14, with additional bonds totaling $160 billion to be issued on May 15 [7]

Core Insights - A majority of small businesses in the U.S. are pessimistic about the current economic conditions, with only 30% rating the economy as excellent or good [1] - Concerns over trade policies and tariffs are prevalent, with 51% of small business owners expecting negative impacts on their operations in the next 12 months [1] - Financial pressure is significant among small business owners, with 60% feeling some level of stress regarding their financial situation [1] Economic Sentiment - 70% of small business owners perceive the current economic situation as average or poor [1] - Only 30% of small business owners believe the economy is in excellent or good condition [1] Trade Policy Impact - 66% of small business owners have already felt or anticipate being affected by tariff policies [1] - 51% expect changes in trade policies to negatively impact their businesses within the next year [1] Financial Pressure - 60% of small business owners report feeling significant or some financial pressure recently [1] - 63% express that they feel significant or some pressure regarding their financial situation [1] - Inflation and tariffs are identified as the primary factors contributing to this financial stress [1]