Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is expected to face significant challenges in 2026, with a potential severe contraction in the labor market that could weaken economic prospects and compel the Federal Reserve to implement drastic interest rate cuts [1] Labor Market Trends - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has risen from 4% at the beginning of last year to 4.6% by November [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to exceed 5% soon, with a possibility of testing the 6% mark by the end of the year [1] - A recent report indicated that the layoff rate in the U.S. reached 1.2% in October of last year, the highest level in a year, suggesting that the labor market's bottom has been reached and an upward trend is emerging [1] - The trend of layoffs is described as moderately increasing, while the hiring rate is sharply declining [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than the market expectation of 3.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 2.6%, marking the lowest level since March 2021 [1] - The White House's National Economic Council Director, Kevin Hassett, indicated that the CPI report reflects a favorable scenario of high growth and low inflation, suggesting significant room for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since September 2021 [1] - A report from Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the unemployment rate has increased for three consecutive months, surpassing a historical warning threshold, which typically leads to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within 6-12 months [1] - Industrial research from Industrial Bank supports this view, stating that ongoing employment pressure and declining inflation could prompt the market to anticipate earlier interest rate cuts [1] Market Expectations - Following the CPI data release, traders estimated a 28.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in January [1]

Group 1 - Silver TD is currently trading above 15,251, with an opening price of 14,655 and a current price of 15,415, reflecting a 5.05% increase [1] - The highest price reached was 15,453, while the lowest was 14,620, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the silver market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, which has heightened market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] - Following the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate for November, U.S. Treasury prices saw a slight increase, with the two-year yield dropping by 5 basis points to 3.45%, marking a new low since October 24 [2] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's January policy decision indicate a 20% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, with complete pricing of rate cuts by mid-2026 [2] Group 3 - The daily chart for silver TD shows a slight decline yesterday, but a strong upward trend today, indicating it is in a positive range with potential for further increases [3] - The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, suggesting an upward trajectory, although the KDJ indicator signals a weakening of upward momentum [3] - Key support levels for silver TD are between 14,000 and 14,500, while resistance levels are between 15,300 and 16,000 [3]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump anticipates a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting, marking the first reduction since December of the previous year [3][6]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, which has intensified market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - Private sector employment increased by only 54,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and well below the revised figure of 106,000 for July, indicating a weakening labor market [7][8]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, all three major U.S. stock indices fell, while the dollar index and long-term U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply, reflecting growing concerns about slowing economic growth [7]. - The price of gold futures surged significantly as a result of the market's reaction to the employment data and the anticipated Fed rate cut [7]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by at least 25 basis points in September is currently estimated at 99% according to market prediction platforms [8]. - Analysts from Bank of America expect the Fed to shift its focus from inflation to the labor market, predicting rate cuts of 25 basis points in both September and December, with the possibility of larger cuts if labor market conditions worsen [8]. Political Commentary - Democratic lawmakers have criticized the rising unemployment rate, attributing it to the Trump administration's tariff policies and economic management, suggesting that these factors have directly impacted job opportunities and inflation levels [9].

Group 1 - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to three individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [3] - President Trump has expressed ongoing dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, and has threatened to remove him from his position [3] Group 2 - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking a nearly four-year high, which has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5][6] - The private sector added only 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 106,000 jobs added in July [5] - The weak labor market data has led to a decline in U.S. stock indices, a drop in the dollar index, and a significant increase in gold futures prices [5] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding $4500, if central bank gold reserves reach half of their historical high of 75% [1][2] - Gold prices have recently reached historical highs, with spot prices surpassing $3600, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are influenced by a projected downward revision of non-farm employment data, which could lead to a higher unemployment rate in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The political interference in the Federal Reserve, particularly with President Trump's actions, is undermining market confidence in the Fed's independence, which may accelerate rate cuts and weaken the dollar [2] - The increase in gold prices has led to a situation where global central bank reserves in gold have surpassed U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years [2]