【要闻速递】 法国外贸银行北美分公司美国利率策略主管约翰.布里格斯表示，市场关注点在于失业率，该数据已升 至4.6%，为2021年以来最高水平。 今日周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于15251一线上方，今日开盘于14655元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报15415元/千克，上涨5.05%，最高触及15453元/千克，最低下探14620元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 日图来看，昨日白银td小幅下跌，连续两日收跌，今日白银td走势强势上涨，目前处于正值区间，布林 带向上开口，显现处于上涨轨道，仍有上涨空间，但KDJ顶背离发出上涨动能减弱的预警信号，短线仍 然看涨，白银td走势下方关注14000-14500支撑；上方关注15300-16000阻力。 随后，收益率收窄跌幅，基本回到此前水平。对于美联储明年1月的政策决定，与会议结果挂钩的掉期 合约定价显示，市场预计约有5个基点的宽松幅度，即降息25个基点的概率约为20%。到2026年中，降 息已被完全定价。 【最新白银td行情解析】 随着美国11月失业率超预期上升，这增强了市场对美联储将在2026年进一步降息的预期，美国国债价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump anticipates a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting, marking the first reduction since December of the previous year [3][6]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, which has intensified market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - Private sector employment increased by only 54,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and well below the revised figure of 106,000 for July, indicating a weakening labor market [7][8]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, all three major U.S. stock indices fell, while the dollar index and long-term U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply, reflecting growing concerns about slowing economic growth [7]. - The price of gold futures surged significantly as a result of the market's reaction to the employment data and the anticipated Fed rate cut [7]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by at least 25 basis points in September is currently estimated at 99% according to market prediction platforms [8]. - Analysts from Bank of America expect the Fed to shift its focus from inflation to the labor market, predicting rate cuts of 25 basis points in both September and December, with the possibility of larger cuts if labor market conditions worsen [8]. Political Commentary - Democratic lawmakers have criticized the rising unemployment rate, attributing it to the Trump administration's tariff policies and economic management, suggesting that these factors have directly impacted job opportunities and inflation levels [9].

Group 1 - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to three individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [3] - President Trump has expressed ongoing dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, and has threatened to remove him from his position [3] Group 2 - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking a nearly four-year high, which has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5][6] - The private sector added only 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 106,000 jobs added in July [5] - The weak labor market data has led to a decline in U.S. stock indices, a drop in the dollar index, and a significant increase in gold futures prices [5] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding $4500, if central bank gold reserves reach half of their historical high of 75% [1][2] - Gold prices have recently reached historical highs, with spot prices surpassing $3600, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are influenced by a projected downward revision of non-farm employment data, which could lead to a higher unemployment rate in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The political interference in the Federal Reserve, particularly with President Trump's actions, is undermining market confidence in the Fed's independence, which may accelerate rate cuts and weaken the dollar [2] - The increase in gold prices has led to a situation where global central bank reserves in gold have surpassed U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years [2]