Core Viewpoint - President Trump anticipates a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting, marking the first reduction since December of the previous year [3][6]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, which has intensified market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - Private sector employment increased by only 54,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and well below the revised figure of 106,000 for July, indicating a weakening labor market [7][8]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, all three major U.S. stock indices fell, while the dollar index and long-term U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply, reflecting growing concerns about slowing economic growth [7]. - The price of gold futures surged significantly as a result of the market's reaction to the employment data and the anticipated Fed rate cut [7]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by at least 25 basis points in September is currently estimated at 99% according to market prediction platforms [8]. - Analysts from Bank of America expect the Fed to shift its focus from inflation to the labor market, predicting rate cuts of 25 basis points in both September and December, with the possibility of larger cuts if labor market conditions worsen [8]. Political Commentary - Democratic lawmakers have criticized the rising unemployment rate, attributing it to the Trump administration's tariff policies and economic management, suggesting that these factors have directly impacted job opportunities and inflation levels [9].

Group 1 - The list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to three individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [3] - President Trump has expressed ongoing dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, and has threatened to remove him from his position [3] Group 2 - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking a nearly four-year high, which has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5][6] - The private sector added only 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 68,000 and a sharp decline from the revised 106,000 jobs added in July [5] - The weak labor market data has led to a decline in U.S. stock indices, a drop in the dollar index, and a significant increase in gold futures prices [5] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates a 99% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding $4500, if central bank gold reserves reach half of their historical high of 75% [1][2] - Gold prices have recently reached historical highs, with spot prices surpassing $3600, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are influenced by a projected downward revision of non-farm employment data, which could lead to a higher unemployment rate in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The political interference in the Federal Reserve, particularly with President Trump's actions, is undermining market confidence in the Fed's independence, which may accelerate rate cuts and weaken the dollar [2] - The increase in gold prices has led to a situation where global central bank reserves in gold have surpassed U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years [2]