Group 1 - UBS analysts maintain a bullish outlook on gold, viewing it as an effective diversification tool and hedge, with a 12-month price target of $4,200 per ounce, potentially rising to $4,700 if political and financial market risks increase significantly [1] - JPMorgan Private Bank analyst Alex Wolf is more optimistic, projecting gold prices could reach $5,200 to $5,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, over 25% higher than current prices, driven by continued accumulation of gold by emerging market central banks [1] - FP Markets analyst Aaron Hill believes the current consolidation around the $4,000 level is a "pause" in a strong trend, with gold prices having risen over 48% this year, and expects a year-end target of $4,200 per ounce [1] Group 2 - GF Futures notes that the U.S. economy and job market are impacted by government shutdowns and trade tensions, with increased uncertainty in short-term policies due to the Fed's hawkish signals, while geopolitical risks and central banks' gold accumulation may drive a bull market similar to the 1970s [3] - The market liquidity is affected by the timing of the U.S. government ending the shutdown and Fed officials' statements, leading to a stronger dollar and price correction pressure, but buying support remains, suggesting a volatile short-term outlook for gold [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - The Fed is expected to cut rates two more times this year before pausing, indicating a shift in focus from inflation risks to labor market concerns [1][1] - The Fed's economic forecast highlights this change in stance, confirming market expectations for two additional rate cuts this year [1][1] Group 2 - Future rate predictions for 2026 may see increased cuts, especially with a potential new chairperson taking over in May 2026, which could conflict with the 2% inflation target [1] - Recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggest a desire for broader reforms within the Federal Reserve, indicating that future responses may differ significantly from past actions [1][1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the July FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The statement shifted from "solid growth" to "moderated," indicating acknowledgment of economic slowdown[5] - Two officials voted against the decision, suggesting increased internal calls for rate cuts[5] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The expectation for a rate cut has been adjusted to one cut in Q4 2025 due to anticipated tariff increases and moderate inflation recovery[4] - Inflation is projected to rise to around 3.4% in early Q4, which may hinder rate cuts[18] - The labor market is expected to show limited decline, with unemployment rates remaining below 4.4% due to slowed immigration[18] Group 3: Market Reactions - Market perceptions shifted towards a hawkish stance, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 41.2%[25] - The US dollar index rose by 1.06% to 99.9684, while 10-year Treasury yields increased by 4.57 basis points to 4.368%[25] - Equity markets experienced a pullback following the FOMC meeting, indicating cautious investor sentiment[25]

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动市场稳固，整体保持平衡，目前并未对通胀产生压力。 ...