劳动市场

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富达国际:预期美国今年会再减息两次 未来美联储反应预测难度或加大
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 03:45
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - The Fed is expected to cut rates two more times this year before pausing, indicating a shift in focus from inflation risks to labor market concerns [1][1] - The Fed's economic forecast highlights this change in stance, confirming market expectations for two additional rate cuts this year [1][1] Group 2 - Future rate predictions for 2026 may see increased cuts, especially with a potential new chairperson taking over in May 2026, which could conflict with the 2% inflation target [1] - Recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggest a desire for broader reforms within the Federal Reserve, indicating that future responses may differ significantly from past actions [1][1]
7月FOMC会议:鹰派发布会降低9月降息预期
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-31 07:41
Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the July FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The statement shifted from "solid growth" to "moderated," indicating acknowledgment of economic slowdown[5] - Two officials voted against the decision, suggesting increased internal calls for rate cuts[5] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The expectation for a rate cut has been adjusted to one cut in Q4 2025 due to anticipated tariff increases and moderate inflation recovery[4] - Inflation is projected to rise to around 3.4% in early Q4, which may hinder rate cuts[18] - The labor market is expected to show limited decline, with unemployment rates remaining below 4.4% due to slowed immigration[18] Group 3: Market Reactions - Market perceptions shifted towards a hawkish stance, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 41.2%[25] - The US dollar index rose by 1.06% to 99.9684, while 10-year Treasury yields increased by 4.57 basis points to 4.368%[25] - Equity markets experienced a pullback following the FOMC meeting, indicating cautious investor sentiment[25]
美联储主席鲍威尔:劳动市场稳固,整体保持平衡,目前并未对通胀产生压力
news flash· 2025-04-16 17:35
美联储主席鲍威尔:劳动市场稳固,整体保持平衡,目前并未对通胀产生压力。 ...