start uh chairman. No, Governor Waller. Let me just call me Chris. >> Chris.Okay. Chris. Um let me start with uh the uh jobs data we got yesterday, which I think is uh people are wondering how uh the Federal Reserve is processing and how you're personally processing this data here.We had a tick up to the unemployment rate at 4.6%. Uh return to job growth in November after job losses in October. What's the state of the labor market in your opinion.Well, earlier this summer when the jobs numbers were looking ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve appears to be in no rush to further cut interest rates, with a focus on labor market conditions and a belief that inflation is temporary [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, with a split decision among FOMC members [1] - The latest economic forecasts show an increase in GDP growth from 1.8% to 2.3% for 2026, a decrease in inflation forecast from 2.6% to 2.4%, and an unchanged unemployment rate forecast at 4.4% [1] - The median policy rate forecast remains unchanged, indicating one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Powell emphasized that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed significantly, although labor demand has noticeably slowed [2] - Recent rate cuts are seen as stabilizing the labor market, with service sector inflation showing signs of decline [2] - Overall, Federal Reserve officials maintain an optimistic view on strong consumer spending, fiscal support, and investment, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector [2]

Group 1 - DWS's chief U.S. economist Christian Scherrmann comments on the upcoming December FOMC meeting, indicating that the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma due to limited and potentially distorted official data from the government shutdown [1] - Private labor market data shows a continued slowdown in employment, while official unemployment claims data remains moderate, suggesting that the weak labor market is primarily due to the normalization post-pandemic and changes in cost structures due to tariffs [1] - Concerns about rising healthcare costs potentially increasing labor costs, especially for small businesses, are contributing to recent employment weakness, although widespread layoffs are not imminent [1] Group 2 - The lack of real-time official data on inflation complicates decision-making for policymakers, with the latest available data from September showing inflation remaining at a high level of around 3% [2] - Consumer sentiment is low, primarily affected by inflation and weakening income prospects, particularly among low-income groups, while high-income earners seem unaffected by strong asset market performance [2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing hawkish and dovish stances, with potential implications for financial conditions and short-term consumption depending on their decisions [2] Group 3 - DWS expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, but acknowledges that a decision to hold off until January for more data collection would also be understandable [3] - The responsibility for effective communication and balance will fall on Chairman Powell, as the Fed's credibility may be challenged by either hawkish or dovish decisions [3]

Group 1 - UBS analysts maintain a bullish outlook on gold, viewing it as an effective diversification tool and hedge, with a 12-month price target of $4,200 per ounce, potentially rising to $4,700 if political and financial market risks increase significantly [1] - JPMorgan Private Bank analyst Alex Wolf is more optimistic, projecting gold prices could reach $5,200 to $5,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, over 25% higher than current prices, driven by continued accumulation of gold by emerging market central banks [1] - FP Markets analyst Aaron Hill believes the current consolidation around the $4,000 level is a "pause" in a strong trend, with gold prices having risen over 48% this year, and expects a year-end target of $4,200 per ounce [1] Group 2 - GF Futures notes that the U.S. economy and job market are impacted by government shutdowns and trade tensions, with increased uncertainty in short-term policies due to the Fed's hawkish signals, while geopolitical risks and central banks' gold accumulation may drive a bull market similar to the 1970s [3] - The market liquidity is affected by the timing of the U.S. government ending the shutdown and Fed officials' statements, leading to a stronger dollar and price correction pressure, but buying support remains, suggesting a volatile short-term outlook for gold [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - The Fed is expected to cut rates two more times this year before pausing, indicating a shift in focus from inflation risks to labor market concerns [1][1] - The Fed's economic forecast highlights this change in stance, confirming market expectations for two additional rate cuts this year [1][1] Group 2 - Future rate predictions for 2026 may see increased cuts, especially with a potential new chairperson taking over in May 2026, which could conflict with the 2% inflation target [1] - Recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggest a desire for broader reforms within the Federal Reserve, indicating that future responses may differ significantly from past actions [1][1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the July FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The statement shifted from "solid growth" to "moderated," indicating acknowledgment of economic slowdown[5] - Two officials voted against the decision, suggesting increased internal calls for rate cuts[5] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The expectation for a rate cut has been adjusted to one cut in Q4 2025 due to anticipated tariff increases and moderate inflation recovery[4] - Inflation is projected to rise to around 3.4% in early Q4, which may hinder rate cuts[18] - The labor market is expected to show limited decline, with unemployment rates remaining below 4.4% due to slowed immigration[18] Group 3: Market Reactions - Market perceptions shifted towards a hawkish stance, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 41.2%[25] - The US dollar index rose by 1.06% to 99.9684, while 10-year Treasury yields increased by 4.57 basis points to 4.368%[25] - Equity markets experienced a pullback following the FOMC meeting, indicating cautious investor sentiment[25]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the labor market remains solid and overall balanced, currently not exerting pressure on inflation [1] Group 1 - The labor market is described as stable, indicating a healthy employment environment [1] - There is no current inflationary pressure stemming from the labor market, suggesting that wage growth and employment levels are not contributing to rising prices [1]