1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the Iran - related geopolitical situation, with different trends in various sectors. The prices of many futures varieties have fluctuated, and the market is in a state of high volatility. It is necessary to closely monitor the development of the situation in the Middle East, especially the situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the production and export of Iran [7][11]. - The prices of most commodities are expected to be in a state of high - volatility. Some commodities may continue to rise under the influence of geopolitical factors, but if the situation eases, there may be significant corrections [7][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Market - After the news that Iran did not block the Strait of Hormuz on March 5, the bullish sentiment in the container shipping European line quickly declined, with concentrated exits of long - position funds and a sharp drop in futures prices, especially in the far - month contracts [7]. - The situation between the US and Iran is still evolving, and the Strait of Hormuz is still de facto not open, and Red Sea navigation is difficult to resume in the short term. It is currently the off - season for container shipping demand, and the war has disrupted the supply - demand structure. Shipping companies have announced price increases, but it is uncertain whether they will be implemented. Maersk has temporarily stopped accepting cargo bookings to and from some Middle Eastern countries [7]. - The EC2604 contract still has the possibility of rising but with large fluctuations. If the situation in Iran eases, there may be a significant decline [7]. 3.2 Crude Oil Market - After the news that the Chinese naval escort fleet successfully escorted three Chinese - owned oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on March 5, the bullish sentiment in the domestic crude oil market declined, and the price gap between domestic and foreign crude oil began to narrow [11]. - Iran has stated that it will selectively strike ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration is considering measures to deal with the soaring oil prices, such as using the national emergency oil reserve. The US has a limited tolerance for long - term significant increases in oil prices. The IEA believes that the current supply is sufficient and has not launched a reserve - release plan [11]. - The US military has increased intelligence personnel for operations against Iran, and the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is expected to last longer, with Brent crude oil prices breaking through $85 per barrel. It is expected that crude oil prices will be in a strong - side shock in the short term, and it is difficult to continue to rise significantly. The domestic oil price increase is expected to be weaker than that of foreign markets, and the price gap will tend to normalize [11]. 3.3 Chemicals Market 3.3.1 Fuel Oil - After the suspension of the Strait of Hormuz, the deliverable high - sulfur fuel oil supply in Asia has tightened, with a reduction of 43,500 tons in fuel oil warehouse receipts. Asian refineries have shifted to importing high - sulfur fuel oil from Russia and Venezuela, reducing their dependence on Middle Eastern raw materials [14]. - Iran's statement of restricting the passage of ships from the EU, Israel, and their allies has cooled the speculative enthusiasm for chemicals. The fuel oil price has risen slightly following the crude oil price, and the bullish sentiment in the market has declined. If the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, the futures market may quickly give back some of the geopolitical premium, and high volatility due to capital games should be vigilant [14]. 3.3.2 Asphalt - In the North China region, mainstream refineries have stopped producing and shipping asphalt, resulting in a contraction of regional spot supply. Shandong refineries have continuously raised prices and are strongly committed to price control. The rigid demand in the northern region is weak, and bad weather restricts terminal construction. The market trading is mainly for arbitrage and inventory, and the storage of high - priced resources has slowed down. In the southern region, the prices of major refineries remain firm, but the actual rigid demand support is limited. Overall, the market is in a state where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the subsequent development of the conflict should be monitored [17]. 3.3.3 LPG - The rise in crude oil prices has driven market sentiment. Domestic refineries have limited supply and still have a certain willingness to raise prices. In the East China region, prices have risen across the board, and in Fujian, prices have remained stable. For imported gas, although the arrival of ships at the terminal has increased and the supply is not tight, due to the impact of the conflict on the arrival of ships in the second half of the month, importers are reluctant to sell. Some upstream refineries have reduced production or stopped production, and the supply of LPG is expected to decrease. On the demand side, some downstream plants in South China have stopped production, and there is an expectation of production reduction. It is recommended to pay close attention to the production dynamics of Middle Eastern crude oil and the navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz. The price is expected to be in a high - volatility state [20]. 3.3.4 Methanol - Urea - The domestic methanol market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Due to the spill - over risk of the Middle East geopolitical situation, many global refineries have reduced production or stopped production, and the production and shipment of Iranian methanol plants have been affected. Only a small part of the methanol production capacity in Iran is currently operating. Urea is mainly priced domestically, with both supply and demand increasing and inventory rising. The overseas urea price has risen significantly due to the geopolitical conflict, but it has little impact on the domestic market due to export restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the production and shipment of Iranian methanol plants. The price is expected to be in a high - volatility state, and methanol prices are likely to rise [23]. 3.3.5 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The chemical futures sector has been strong, with many varieties reaching the daily limit. The aromatics series (pure benzene/styrene) is directly downstream of crude oil and naphtha, and is supported by cost - side and supply - shortage factors. The domestic pure benzene market has a slightly improved pattern of reduced supply and increased demand, and April is the maintenance season. The domestic styrene market has a healthy supply - demand situation, with an expected increase and then decrease in the operating rate, and the export volume in March is expected to be optimistic. Some domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production or stopped production in advance. In the context of the ongoing Middle East war, the prices of pure benzene and styrene are likely to rise [27]. 3.3.6 Polyethylene - Polyvinyl Chloride - The polyethylene industry has three main production processes. The geopolitical impact has brought double benefits of cost and import to the domestic polyethylene market. The polyvinyl chloride has two main production methods, and the ethylene - based method is more affected. The domestic polyethylene market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with high inventory after the Spring Festival and difficulty in cost transfer. The polyvinyl chloride market has a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, with high operating rates, increased inventory, and weak demand recovery. Some domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production or stopped production in advance. In the context of the ongoing Middle East war, the prices of polyethylene and polyvinyl chloride are likely to rise, but the increase may be less than that of other oil - related chemicals [30][31]. 3.3.7 Propylene - Polypropylene - Propylene is a key downstream product of LPG, and China mainly produces it domestically with multiple production processes. Due to the transportation risk in the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction of Middle Eastern crude oil production, the supply of LPG is expected to shrink, which will affect propylene production. The propylene market is in a game situation, with sellers wanting to raise prices but the proportion of premium transactions decreasing, and buyers being cautious. The polypropylene market has strong cost support due to the rising crude oil price, and the spot price has risen rapidly. The downstream factories have resumed production and have purchasing demand [34]. 3.3.8 Polyester Series (PX - EG - PTA - PR - PF) - Short - term trend: As long as the geopolitical tension in the Middle East does not ease, the high - risk premium of crude oil prices will continue, providing strong cost support for the polyester chain. PX, PTA, and EG prices are expected to be in a strong - side shock. Among them, ethylene glycol (EG) may have the greatest price elasticity, PTA may follow the cost but its processing margin may be squeezed, and short - fiber (PF) may have relatively weak upward persistence. If the Middle East situation eases, the polyester series will decline with the cost. If the crude oil price remains high for 1 - 2 weeks and the downstream demand does not recover, the polyester chain may turn from a strong trend to a shock - decline [36]. - Operational suggestions: For the single - side strategy, be cautiously bullish and avoid chasing high prices. For the arbitrage strategy, consider going long on PTA and short on PF, or going long on EG and short on PTA. For the option strategy, investors who are bullish but worried about a significant decline can consider buying call options or constructing a bull - spread portfolio. For risk management, reduce positions, increase trading flexibility, and industrial customers can use futures for hedging [38][39]. 3.3.9 Rubber Series - Natural rubber: The overall trend of RU and NR this week is weaker than that of BR. The supply in the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory has been increasing after the Spring Festival. The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the overseas export orders of tire factories have been affected by the geopolitical conflict. The short - term market is expected to be in a shock - consolidation state. - Synthetic rubber: BR has continued to strengthen this week. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to an expected reduction in crude oil supply, and the market is worried about the increase in raw material costs due to the decline in the load of domestic cracking plants. There is a shortage of raw material supply. The short - term bullish expectation for butadiene rubber still exists, but the export situation has some uncertainties, and the support from the natural rubber market is weakening. It is not recommended to chase high prices. Operational suggestions: Wait and see or build long positions at low prices for RU and NR; for BR long positions, consider buying out - of - the - money put options for hedging [42]. 3.4 Aluminum Industry Chain 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Alumina - Since the intensification of the Middle East situation last weekend, the non - ferrous metal sector represented by copper has fully priced in geopolitical risks and declined significantly. However, electrolytic aluminum has performed well. The suspension of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the supply capacity of Middle Eastern electrolytic aluminum, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract rising by more than 5% this week and the LME London aluminum rising by more than 7%. The structural contradiction between the large electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the low alumina self - sufficiency rate in the Middle East has been exacerbated by the suspension of the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact has been reflected in the production reduction of Middle Eastern electrolytic aluminum [46]. - As the suspension of the Strait of Hormuz continues, concerns about inflation and economic recession in the Shanghai aluminum market have restricted the upward space of electrolytic aluminum. The domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price has risen significantly this week, but the downstream support is limited, and the operating rates of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils need to be further restored [46]. - In the long term, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is supported by the acceleration of new energy and power grid investment, and there is a supply gap due to geopolitical factors and rising power costs. It is recommended to be bullish on Shanghai aluminum and go long at low prices [47]. 3.4.2 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures market has risen significantly this week. The market trading logic is still related to the spill - over impact of the Middle East situation, which has led to the reduction of PVC plant loads in East and Southeast Asia and an increase in overseas caustic soda procurement. The domestic futures market sentiment has been boosted [50]. - The domestic caustic soda market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. The demand is restricted by the limited growth of alumina production capacity and the surplus situation of alumina. The supply is unlikely to decrease in the short term due to the increase in the enthusiasm for chlor - alkali co - production. The inventory is at a high level in recent years. In the long term, the domestic caustic soda production capacity is growing rapidly, and the downstream demand needs to be further recovered. It is recommended to be bearish on caustic soda in general, but be cautious in the short term due to the impact of sentiment and funds, and consider shorting the far - month contracts at high prices [50][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 11, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Carbonate lithium led the gains, while container shipping European routes led the losses. The capital flow varied among different contracts [5][6]. - Different futures products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and geopolitical situations, and their prices are expected to move within a certain range in the short term [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 11, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Carbonate lithium rose over 9%, and沪镍 rose over 4%. Container shipping European routes fell over 1%, and coke, glass, and palm oil fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.13%, IH rose 0.08%, IC rose 0.43%, and IM rose 0.01%. Among bond futures, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.05%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.05%. In terms of capital flow, IM 2603,沪金 2604, and carbonate lithium 2605 had capital inflows, while ten - year bond 2603, 30 - year bond 2603, and CSI 300 2603 had capital outflows [5][6]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Futures - **沪铜**: It opened low and closed high, with strong intraday fluctuations. In January, production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and in February, it is expected to return to normal. The expected production in February decreased by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a 3.04% decline, but increased by 8.06% year - on - year. The demand decreased marginally during the holiday. The copper price is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the spot trading was light before the holiday [8]. - **Carbonate lithium**: It opened high and closed high, rising over 9%. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased. The supply in February will decrease. The export of Chilean carbonate lithium in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory is moving downstream. The retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand is in the off - season, but the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The global crude oil floating storage is high, and the supply is in surplus. The price of Arabian light crude oil to Asia was lowered. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The geopolitical situation in Iran is uncertain, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased slightly week - on - week, and the expected production in February decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate mostly declined, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is restricted, and the production and cost of domestic asphalt are affected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [13][15]. - **PP**: The downstream production rate of PP decreased week - on - week, and the enterprise production rate increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: The plastic production rate increased, and the downstream production rate decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC production rate increased slightly, and the downstream production rate decreased. The export order decreased after the price increase, and the social inventory increased. The real estate market is still in adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Coking coal**: It opened low and closed high, with a late - session decline. The supply of coking coal shrank significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will be restricted during the holiday. The downstream inventory is still increasing, but the replenishment is approaching the end. It is expected to be weak and fluctuate before the holiday [21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed high, rising in a volatile manner. Most factories have completed order collection, and the spot price will be stable during the holiday. The daily production has reached 215,000 tons. The futures market sentiment is strong, and the inventory decreased significantly this week but is expected to increase slightly next week. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range before the holiday [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is disturbed by geopolitical risks, and the chemical industry as a whole continues to fluctuate. The Venezuelan situation affects the supply of crude oil, and the market prices of various energy and chemical products show different trends under multiple factors such as supply - demand, cost, and geopolitics [1][3]. - The trading logic of the chemical market is disturbed by multiple favorable factors, and the strength - weakness relationship between varieties has changed significantly. The rebound of polyolefins has opened the import arbitrage window for polyethylene, and the current rebound may overdraw the future maintenance benefits of the industry [2]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical factors continuously disturb, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. The supply of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to gradually normalize, and the global crude oil supply pressure continues. However, geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors guiding the crude oil supply expectation. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of supply surplus and frequent geopolitical disturbances [1][8]. - **Main Logic**: EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week of January 2, and the weekly production estimate decreased slightly. The refinery operating rate remained high, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased seasonally. If the US - Venezuelan crude oil trade volume increases and sanctions are reduced, the supply of Venezuela may recover slightly this year [8]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and it is regarded as short - term fluctuation [8]. Asphalt - **View**: The US is dealing with the sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter. Venezuela is expected to transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US. The interruption expectation of Venezuelan crude oil exports is gradually alleviated, and the asphalt raw material supply interruption expectation is also relieved. The asphalt cracking spread is under pressure. The asphalt production in Hainan has increased significantly, and the inventory pressure is still large. The asphalt is overvalued compared with fuel oil [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The Venezuelan situation is controllable, and the fuel oil futures price drops. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter, and the supply of heavy oil will surge. The energy crisis in Iraq may lead to the resumption of fuel - oil power generation. However, the high - sulfur fuel oil demand is suppressed by the high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and the demand for fuel - oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates and declines. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage, and it is expected to face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand. Currently, the valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and the lack of high - sulfur substitution demand space, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [11]. Methanol - **View**: The inventory accumulation along the coast slows down, and methanol is expected to be stable and slightly strong under the expectation of inventory reduction. - **Main Logic**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is rational. The port inventory is in an accumulation state, but the growth rate has slowed down, indicating that the reduction of imports is beneficial. However, the current MTO profit is not good, and the operation of some projects needs attention [29]. - **Outlook**: It is regarded as short - term stable and slightly strong [29]. Urea - **View**: The new order transactions push up the price close to the pressure level, and urea is regarded as fluctuating. - **Main Logic**: The supply side has high daily production and operation rate to meet previous orders. The demand side is cautious about high - price goods. The inventory is flat, and the sustainability of new order transactions near the price of 1800 yuan/ton needs attention [30]. - **Outlook**: It is regarded as short - term fluctuation [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The general rise of the coal - chemical industry boosts the atmosphere, but the increase is limited due to fundamental pressure. - **Main Logic**: The coal price rises, and the coal - chemical industry is supported by cost. However, the ethylene glycol's own inventory accumulation cycle is difficult to reverse, so the rebound space is limited [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price will fluctuate within the range, and the long - term inventory accumulation pressure is still large, with an operation range of [3700 - 3900] [22]. PX - **View**: The sector sentiment is warm, and the downstream demand still has support, so it maintains range consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the overall rise of downstream PTA is strong, which limits the decline of PX. The supply - demand variables are limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range [13]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range, and the positive - spread logic is maintained [13]. PTA - **View**: The cost guidance is limited, but the enthusiastic sentiment of chemical products supports the price to be firm. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is average during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the domestic chemical product sector sentiment is high. The demand is expected to weaken, but the overall sentiment is warm, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. The overall supply - demand is in a tight pattern, and the spot market will fluctuate within a range [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate with the cost. The TA05 contract can be bought on dips in the medium - term, and short - sold in the range of 5200 - 5300. The TA05 - 09 can be positively spread on dips [15]. Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost provides certain support, but the demand sustainability is insufficient, and the profit is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate without a clear direction. The downstream demand is continuously insufficient, and some terminal enterprises may enter the holiday state after the middle of the month. The chemical product sentiment is warm, and the short - fiber price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is slightly under pressure [26]. Bottle - Chip - **View**: More devices are under maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. - **Main Logic**: The commodity market rises as a whole, and the cost support is acceptable. However, the downstream terminal replenishment willingness is not high, which restricts the increase. It is expected that the market center of polyester bottle - chips will fluctuate and adjust [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw material, and the support for the processing fee increases [27]. Propylene (PL) - **View**: There is an expectation of PDH maintenance, and PL rises slightly. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance boosts the price. The enthusiasm of market participants has increased, and the enterprise inventory is low. The powder profit has been slightly repaired, but the downstream demand in the off - season has limited support [36]. - **Outlook**: PL fluctuates in the short term [36]. PP - **View**: The coal price indirectly boosts, but the basis support is limited, and PP rises cautiously. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the actual reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports is uncertain. The coal price rebounds in the short term, which indirectly boosts PP. It is the off - season for PP downstream, and the trading volume has decreased after the futures price rebound. The short - term maintenance has increased [35]. - **Outlook**: PP fluctuates in the short term [35]. LLDPE - **View**: The downstream trading volume has decreased, and the upward space of LLDPE is limited. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the supply of crude oil is disturbed in the short term. The futures price rebounds slightly under the repair of macro - expectations, but the spot is weak, and the basis is weak. It is the off - season for plastic demand, and the demand support is limited [34]. - **Outlook**: LLDPE fluctuates in the short term [34]. PVC - **View**: There are frequent supply disturbances, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. From a domestic perspective, the marginal device operation rate has increased slightly, and the profit repair may increase the supply elasticity. From an overseas perspective, some PVC production capacity has withdrawn from the market. The downstream is in the off - season, and the export orders are average [39]. - **Outlook**: Supported by factors such as "anti - involution", spring maintenance expectations, and overseas device disturbances, PVC runs strongly. If the sentiment fades, the adjustment pressure on the disk will increase [39]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The market sentiment is positive, and caustic soda is driven up. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. The expected increase in the electricity cost of restricted - capacity caustic soda in Shaanxi boosts the market sentiment. The alumina marginal device profit is poor, and the demand for caustic soda has marginal support. The upstream production is stable, and the caustic soda cost is expected to increase [41]. - **Outlook**: The disk may fluctuate. The support comes from positive market sentiment and the expectation of cost increase, while the pressure comes from high inventory and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [41].