华福证券表示，复盘2025年，化工行业经历了盈利与估值的探底，展望2026年，盈利有望触底回升。行业处于供需再平衡的新起点：供给侧的反内卷政策正 在重塑竞争格局，而以AI算力、半导体先进制造、人形机器人为代表的新质生产力将引领新一轮成长。 如何把握化工板块反弹机遇？借道化工ETF（516020）布局效率或更高。公开资料显示，化工ETF（516020）跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，成份股覆盖 AI算力、反内卷、机器人、新能源等热门主题。其中近5成仓位集中于大市值龙头股，包括万华化学、盐湖股份等，分享强者恒强投资机遇；其余5成仓位 兼顾布局磷肥及磷化工、氟化工、氮肥等细分领域龙头股，全面把握化工板块投资机会。场外投资者亦可通过化工ETF联接基金（A类012537/C类012538） 布局化工板块。 来源：沪深交易所等，截至2026.1.15。 风险提示：化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于2012.4.11。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其 回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举，不作为任何个股推荐，不代表基金管理人和基金 ...

化工板块午后领涨两市，截至发稿，基础化工板块涨幅在30个中信一级行业中高居首位，反映化工板块 整体走势的化工ETF（516020）场内价格涨0.99%。 成份股方面，橡胶助剂、磷化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，彤程新材涨停，宏达股份大涨超 5%，广东宏大、博源化工、华鲁恒升等亦涨幅居前。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘玩 盛加 九转 图纸 工具 @ 0 | | 化工ETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 516020(化工ETF) 14:21 价 0.917 图表 0.009(0.99%) 均价 0.920 版交量 590 IOPV 0.9166 2026 | | | | | | | | | | | | MAN | | | | | | 0.917 | | +0.009 +0.99% | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 14:21:48 文明 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the critical role of EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography materials in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of rising import tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Japanese high-end materials, which could reshape the supply chain landscape [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global photolithography market is entering a structural growth phase, with the market value expected to reach approximately $6.5 to $7 billion by 2025, accounting for about 8 to 10% of the global semiconductor materials market [4]. - The EUV photolithography segment is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35%, significantly outpacing other mature products like ArF and KrF, which are expected to grow at 4 to 5% [4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - If the U.S. imposes tariffs of 10 to 25% on EUV and ArF photolithography materials from Japan, it could lead to an increase in import prices by 10 to 24%, with potential cost increases of nearly $400 per gallon of EUV materials by 2025 [3]. - The reliance of major manufacturers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung on Japanese suppliers for EUV materials means they may have to accept higher costs, creating a challenging environment for advanced manufacturing [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Japanese companies such as JSR, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, and Shin-Etsu Chemical dominate the EUV photolithography market, holding over 90% market share, while U.S. companies like DuPont and Dow struggle to compete in this high-value segment [5]. - Taiwanese companies have the opportunity to transition from being agents to suppliers if they can manage material reserves and customer validation processes effectively, with TSMC's expansion potentially benefiting local suppliers [6]. Group 4: Future Trends - The article emphasizes the importance of materials in determining manufacturing stability and yield, suggesting that the competition for advanced materials will be a key battleground in the semiconductor industry [7]. - The ability to adapt to supply chain restructuring, cost transfer capabilities, and the transition from agency to supply roles will be critical for companies looking to capitalize on the evolving landscape of semiconductor manufacturing [7].