公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源 ：内容 编译自 semi 。 半导体行业正面临前所未有的悖论：人工智能需求蓬勃发展，晶圆厂投资不断增加，但晶圆出货量却 依然停滞不前。是什么导致了这种脱节？这种脱节何时才能打破？ 截至2025年中，全球硅片市场表面上看似平静，但潜在的结构性紧张局势正在悄然加剧。人工智能半 导体的需求依然坚挺，某些高价值供应链仍在接近满负荷运转。然而，硅片出货量却几乎没有出现任 何明显复苏的迹象——这种背离引发了人们对传统供需格局的质疑。 SEMI最新的硅晶圆市场监测报告首先提出了一个结构性假设：当前的市场动态不能仅仅用需求疲软 或订单延迟来解释。相反，我们认为晶圆厂运营本身的需求模式已经发生了根本性的变化。 （原文： SEMI's latest Silicon Wafer Market Monitor Report begins with a structural hypothesis: that the current market dynamics cannot be explained solely by weak demand or delayed orders. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of photoresist in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the risks posed by the current reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly Japan, which dominates 90% of the high-end photoresist market. The potential for supply disruptions could severely impact China's semiconductor capabilities, especially in advanced processes below 14nm [2][11][23]. Group 1: Importance of Photoresist - Photoresist is described as an essential material in semiconductor manufacturing, likened to a precision tool that enables the creation of intricate circuit patterns on silicon wafers [4][11]. - The production of high-end photoresist involves complex chemical formulations and stringent manufacturing processes, making it a highly specialized field with significant technical barriers [7][23]. Group 2: Current Market Situation - China's domestic production of high-end photoresist is alarmingly low, with KrF photoresist at 15% and ArF photoresist below 5% [2][11]. - The article outlines various types of photoresist used in semiconductor manufacturing, including G-line, I-line, KrF, ArF, and EUV photoresists, each serving different technological nodes [8][10]. Group 3: Risks of Supply Disruption - The article discusses potential scenarios of supply disruption due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of a comprehensive technology embargo from the U.S. and its allies, which could lead to a halt in semiconductor production in China [27][28][29]. - The impact of such disruptions would be felt across various sectors, including automotive, consumer electronics, and advanced computing, leading to significant economic repercussions [33][34][38]. Group 4: Strategies for Mitigation - The article suggests immediate emergency strategies, such as inventory management, global sourcing through gray channels, and temporary use of lower-performance alternatives to maintain production [42][44][45]. - Long-term strategies include building a self-sufficient photoresist supply chain through national collaboration, technological innovation, and investment in research and development [51][55][58]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that while the current situation poses severe challenges, it also presents an opportunity for China to strengthen its semiconductor industry by investing in domestic capabilities and reducing reliance on foreign technology [62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The U.S. government has released the "AI Action Plan," which includes over 90 policy measures aimed at consolidating AI dominance and strengthening technology restrictions against China [1] - Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. is set to begin trial production of its first fully domestic production line in the second half of 2025, with plans to increase monthly production capacity from 130,000 wafers to 150,000 wafers by 2025 [2] - Alphabet's Q2 revenue increased by 14% year-on-year, with a net profit of $28.196 billion, leading to a $10 billion increase in capital expenditure for 2025 [3] Industry Performance - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 2.85%, ranking 13th out of 31 sectors [4][30] - The semiconductor sub-sector had the highest weekly increase of 4.65%, while the components sub-sector experienced a decline of 0.85% [31][33] - As of July 26, 2025, the electronic industry PE ratio is 55.97, with a 10-year PE percentile of 76.84% [38] Investment Recommendations - For the computing power industry chain, companies such as Shenghong Technology, Huadian Co., and others are recommended for investment [9] - In the semiconductor industry chain, companies like North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The global and Chinese photoresist market is experiencing growth driven by the semiconductor and display panel industries, with future demand expected to increase significantly despite recent fluctuations in specific sectors [5][10]. Group 1: Global Photoresist Market Overview - The global photoresist market size is expected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 5% from 2022 to 2027, despite a 2% decline in 2022 due to decreased demand in the new display industry [5]. - In the semiconductor sector, the global market size reached $573.5 billion in 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and photoresist consumption in this sector was approximately 23.8 billion yuan, growing by 8% [6]. - The new display panel market saw a decline in 2022, with a total shipment area of 237 million square meters, down 4.3%, leading to a 19% decrease in photoresist consumption to about 12.6 billion yuan [7]. - The PCB industry is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4% from 2022 to 2027, with photoresist consumption in this sector reaching approximately 16.3 billion yuan in 2022, a 2% increase [9]. Group 2: Chinese Photoresist Market Overview - China's photoresist demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 7% from 2022 to 2027, despite the market size remaining stable in 2022 compared to 2021 [12]. - In the semiconductor sector, China's photoresist consumption reached 4.6 billion yuan in 2022, with a growth rate of 15%, and is expected to grow at 10% annually over the next five years [13]. - The new display sector in China saw a decline in photoresist consumption to 6.1 billion yuan in 2022, down 13%, but is projected to grow at 8% annually in the coming years [14]. - The PCB industry in China had a total output value of $43.6 billion in 2022, with photoresist consumption reaching approximately 10.1 billion yuan, a 3% increase [16]. Group 3: Development Status of China's Photoresist Industry - The domestic production rate of photoresists is relatively low, with significant reliance on imports for semiconductor and display panel photoresists [19]. - Several domestic companies have made progress in the production of G/I line photoresists, with KrF photoresists seeing some successful local production [25]. - The market for TFT positive photoresists is dominated by foreign companies, with domestic production accounting for about 20% of the total market [32]. - The PCB photoresist market is characterized by a growing domestic supply of wet film photoresists and imaging solder masks, with a current domestic production rate of approximately 55% [36]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Prospects - The high technical barriers in the photoresist industry and the need for collaboration with lithography equipment manufacturers pose challenges for rapid domestic development [19]. - There is a significant opportunity for domestic companies to increase their market share in high-end photoresists, as the current production capabilities are still limited [42]. - Ongoing projects in China aim to enhance the production capacity of photoresists and related materials, indicating a strong push towards achieving greater self-sufficiency [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent acceptance announcement of Hangzhou Hanya Microelectronics Technology Co., Ltd.'s high-end photoresist new material project, highlighting its significance in the semiconductor industry and the company's ambitions in this field [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project involves an investment of 101.5 million yuan, aiming to produce 3 tons of high-end photoresist new materials annually, with completion expected in December 2024 and trial operations starting in January 2025 [2]. - The initial acceptance includes 2.62 tons of high-end photoresist materials, specifically 2.5 tons of KrF photoresist and 0.5 tons of ArF photoresist [2]. Group 2: Company Background - Hangzhou Hanya Microelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. was established in June 2023 in Qiantang District, Hangzhou, with a registered capital of 6.25 million yuan and has completed its Series A financing [3]. - The company aims to become the first domestic enterprise with commercial production capabilities for high-end deep ultraviolet photoresist KrF (248nm) and ArF (193nm) core resin materials, as well as next-generation EUV (13nm) extreme ultraviolet photoresist resin materials [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - Photoresists, also known as photoresist agents, are essential in semiconductor manufacturing, comprising components like photoinitiators, resins, monomers, solvents, and additives [4]. - The semiconductor photoresist market is categorized by exposure wavelength, including g-line (436nm), i-line (365nm), KrF (248nm), ArF (193nm), and EUV photoresists (13.5nm), with EUV photoresists currently being entirely imported [4]. - Domestic production of KrF and ArF photoresists has been achieved by several companies, but their market share remains low, with competitors including Nanda Optoelectronics, Jingrui Electric Materials, and others [4].

Group 1 - The global photoresist market is expected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 5% from 2022 to 2027, despite a 2% decline in 2022 due to a drop in demand from the new display industry [4][9] - In the semiconductor sector, the global market size reached $573.5 billion in 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and the consumption of photoresist was approximately 23.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8% [5] - The new display panel market saw a decline in output area by 4.3% in 2022, leading to a 19% decrease in photoresist consumption in this sector [6] Group 2 - China's photoresist demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7% from 2022 to 2027, despite a stagnation in 2022 [9] - In the semiconductor field, China's actual production capacity for 12-inch wafers reached 1.37 million pieces per month in 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 32% [10] - The consumption of photoresist in China's semiconductor industry was 4.6 billion yuan in 2022, reflecting a 15% increase [10] Group 3 - The domestic photoresist production capacity is significantly lower than market demand, with most production focused on PCB photoresist [14] - High-end photoresist products are still largely dependent on imports, with the most advanced domestic semiconductor photoresist being KrF photoresist [15][19] - The key raw materials for photoresist production are primarily imported, leading to a low domestic production rate for these materials [16][31] Group 4 - Several domestic companies have achieved breakthroughs in the production of G/I line photoresists, with KrF photoresist seeing some mature products [19][23] - The TFT positive photoresist market is dominated by foreign companies, with domestic suppliers achieving a 20% market share [26] - The PCB photoresist market is characterized by a tripartite structure among Japan, Taiwan, and mainland China, with domestic companies achieving a 55% localization rate for wet film photoresist [29][30] Group 5 - The Chinese photoresist industry faces significant challenges, including a large technological gap and weak engineering capabilities [37] - The reliance on single-source imports for key raw materials and equipment poses a high supply chain risk for the industry [38]

Core Viewpoint - Photoresist is a critical material in semiconductor manufacturing, often referred to as the "brush" for chip production, but it presents significant challenges for domestic companies due to high technical barriers and market monopolies by international giants [2][24]. Group 1: Challenges in Photoresist Production - High technical barriers exist due to complex chemical formulations required for different types of photoresists, such as EUV photoresist, which demands exceptional sensitivity and resolution [4][6]. - Strict purity requirements for photoresist directly impact chip yield and performance, necessitating control at ppb (parts per billion) or even ppt (parts per trillion) levels [7][8]. - Advanced production equipment is essential for photoresist manufacturing, but most of this technology is monopolized by foreign companies, making it difficult for domestic firms to acquire [9]. Group 2: Raw Material Supply Issues - Resin, a core raw material in photoresist, constitutes 10%-40% of the total weight and varies by type, with high-end resins primarily imported due to complex synthesis technologies [11][12]. - Photoinitiators, crucial for initiating photochemical reactions, are predominantly supplied by foreign firms, creating a gap in domestic production capabilities [14]. - Solvents used in photoresist must meet high purity standards, with domestic companies needing to enhance quality control to meet the demands of high-end photoresists [15]. Group 3: Market Landscape - The global photoresist market is dominated by a few international giants, with the top five companies holding over 85% market share, creating significant entry barriers for domestic firms [16][29]. - The domestic photoresist market is growing, with a projected CAGR of about 10% from 2024 to 2029, but high-end products remain largely reliant on imports [28][30]. Group 4: Opportunities for Domestic Companies - National policies are increasingly supportive of the semiconductor industry, including funding and technical guidance for photoresist development [33][34]. - Domestic companies are making strides in the mid-to-low-end photoresist market and are beginning to penetrate the high-end segment, with firms like Nanda Optoelectronics and Beijing Kehua achieving significant milestones [30][31]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - The growing demand for photoresist driven by advancements in semiconductor technology presents investment opportunities, particularly in high-end products [41][42]. - Investors should focus on companies with strong technical capabilities, market competitiveness, and experienced management teams to maximize returns [48][49][50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the revenue from photolithography materials is expected to grow by 7% to reach $5.06 billion by 2025, driven by the recovery of the semiconductor market and increased demand for advanced photolithography resists, particularly EUV resists which are projected to grow by 30% year-on-year [1] - In 2024, photolithography material revenue is forecasted to have a modest growth of 1.6%, reaching $4.74 billion, with photolithography resists growing by 1% and EUV resists showing a notable increase of 20% [1] - The market is benefiting from the steady growth in demand for photolithography resists due to advancements in node processes, especially EUV resists, while traditional resists like KrF and ArF are also seeing increased applications in 3D NAND [1] Group 2 - According to TECHCET's report, the photolithography materials market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6% until 2029, influenced by trends in supply chain localization with new facilities being established in the US, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly restrictions on advanced materials and China's advancements in photolithography technology, will impact material supply [2] - Innovative technologies such as dry photolithography resist deposition and nanoimprint lithography are deemed crucial for meeting advanced node demands, while the industry is also addressing challenges like the phased-out use of PFAS-related chemicals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor market is expected to perform better in 2024 compared to 2023, driven by inventory replenishment, advancements in AI and HPC, and increased demand in automotive electronics and new energy sectors [4][5]. Market Overview - The global semiconductor market sales are projected to reach $627.6 billion in 2024, marking a significant growth of 19.1% compared to 2023 [4]. - The global photoresist market is anticipated to grow by 16.15% year-on-year in 2024, with specific growth rates for different types of photoresists: I-line (10.22%), G-line (14.06%), KrF (17.89%), ArF (16.74%), and EUV (21.26%) [5]. Photoresist Market in China - China's semiconductor photoresist market is expected to reach $771 million in 2024, becoming the largest in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 42.25% [5]. - The growth rates for different types of photoresists in China are as follows: G/I-line (29.8%), KrF (42.61%), and ArF (45.84%) [5]. Production Capacity of Photoresist Companies - A survey of 15 companies in mainland China reveals their design production capacities for semiconductor photoresists, with notable capacities including: - Tongcheng New Materials: 1,000 tons/year for G-line, KrF, and ArF [5] - Jingrui Electric Materials: 2,800 tons/year [5] - Feikai Materials: 5,000 tons/year [5] - The continuous investment in new production capacities supports steady growth in the photoresist market [5]. Upcoming Industry Events - The 2025 TrendBank (5th) Photoresist Industry Conference will be held from July 8-10 in Hefei, focusing on new applications, trends, and supply chain discussions [6][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the critical role of EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography materials in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of rising import tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Japanese high-end materials, which could reshape the supply chain landscape [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global photolithography market is entering a structural growth phase, with the market value expected to reach approximately $6.5 to $7 billion by 2025, accounting for about 8 to 10% of the global semiconductor materials market [4]. - The EUV photolithography segment is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35%, significantly outpacing other mature products like ArF and KrF, which are expected to grow at 4 to 5% [4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - If the U.S. imposes tariffs of 10 to 25% on EUV and ArF photolithography materials from Japan, it could lead to an increase in import prices by 10 to 24%, with potential cost increases of nearly $400 per gallon of EUV materials by 2025 [3]. - The reliance of major manufacturers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung on Japanese suppliers for EUV materials means they may have to accept higher costs, creating a challenging environment for advanced manufacturing [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Japanese companies such as JSR, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, and Shin-Etsu Chemical dominate the EUV photolithography market, holding over 90% market share, while U.S. companies like DuPont and Dow struggle to compete in this high-value segment [5]. - Taiwanese companies have the opportunity to transition from being agents to suppliers if they can manage material reserves and customer validation processes effectively, with TSMC's expansion potentially benefiting local suppliers [6]. Group 4: Future Trends - The article emphasizes the importance of materials in determining manufacturing stability and yield, suggesting that the competition for advanced materials will be a key battleground in the semiconductor industry [7]. - The ability to adapt to supply chain restructuring, cost transfer capabilities, and the transition from agency to supply roles will be critical for companies looking to capitalize on the evolving landscape of semiconductor manufacturing [7].