从缅甸看全球锡供需基本面与展望 20260302 摘要 2025 年锡价大幅波动，上半年受刚果（金）地缘政治和缅甸地震影响 一度冲高，二季度后因矿山复产预期回落，全年价格重心上移，年末受 供应和宏观因素影响突破年内高点。 2025 年国内现货基差整体升水，年末至 2026 年初升水走高，主因春 节前市场可流通货源紧张，库存多为难以流通的"沉淀库存"，导致现 货升水维持并走强。 全球锡资源静态储采比不足 15 年，引发市场对中长期供给偏紧的担忧， 吸引资金关注。中国锡精矿产量稳定在 7.2 万吨左右，大型矿山配额稳 定，边际变化来自中小矿山，受环保和价格影响。 2025 年锡精矿加工费（TC）持续探底后上调，并非因矿端供给宽松， 而是锡价上涨后矿商与冶炼厂利润再分配，矿端让渡利润以改善冶炼端 经营压力。 缅甸锡矿进口占比持续下滑，2025 年不足 20%，刚果（金）成为最大 来源国。2026 年 4 月缅甸提出复产，但实际进口增量在 7 月至年底才 逐步体现，目前月均进口量仍低于历史正常水平。 Q&A 2025 年锡价在不同阶段的核心驱动因素是什么，价格运行中枢与高点分别位 于什么水平？ 2025 年锡价整体呈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to limited changes in the fundamentals, a recovery in supply, and a significant drop in downstream demand, leading to a correction of previously rapid price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - Tin prices fell by 5.98%, closing at 389,500 yuan/ton, following a period of price increases driven by speculative trading and surrounding commodity influences [1]. - The recent price drop is a correction after a rapid increase, with the market responding to high prices that have suppressed downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Demand Analysis - Downstream consumption remains weak, with overall consumption this year slightly lower than in previous years; short-term recovery in photovoltaic demand is expected, but production in January is anticipated to continue declining [1]. - Feedback from downstream users indicates a lack of new orders and a decrease in inventory turnover efficiency, as many end-users are hesitant to purchase due to high prices and are controlling inventory levels [1]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The supply side remains stable, with no significant adjustments in the production pace of smelters; the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan was reported at 87.09%, consistent with the previous week [1]. - Tin ore supply from Myanmar is gradually recovering, supporting high operating rates in Yunnan, but low processing fees are pressuring profits and limiting production increases [1]. - Some smelters in Jiangxi are facing production constraints due to a shortage of recycled materials, leading to continued low output of refined tin, with some manufacturers even reducing production slightly last week [1]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term price declines are influenced by tightened risk controls by exchanges, which have suppressed speculative trading, and a significant increase in warehouse receipts ahead of contract delivery [2]. - The supply-demand balance remains tight, with expectations of a supply squeeze in the future, particularly with Indonesia's tin export quota projected at 60,000 tons for 2026 [2]. - There is a potential for improved inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises following the recent price correction, although the focus remains on essential stockpiling [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in tin prices due to macroeconomic caution, regulatory measures to curb speculation, and a shift in market sentiment towards actual supply and demand dynamics [1][2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price dropped by 9.49%, closing at $47,765, with a trading volume of 1,509 contracts and an open interest of 23,747 contracts [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin futures also experienced a substantial drop, with the main contract opening at 393,700 CNY and falling to 392,550 CNY, marking a decrease of 21,720 CNY [1] Group 2 - Current market conditions show a lack of trading activity in the spot market, with downstream participants adopting a cautious stance [2] - The overall sentiment across the industry chain is one of caution, with expectations that tin prices will continue to exhibit weak fluctuations in the short term due to ongoing macro pressures and a lack of new fundamental drivers [2] - The increase in visible inventory indicates a trend towards looser supply, while demand from end-use electronics remains weak, particularly during the traditional off-season [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends investors to continue holding long positions or to add to them on dips [10][12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 12, 2026, tin prices surged, breaking through 375,000 yuan/ton during trading hours, hitting a new high for the year due to supply disruptions and high - market sentiment [4][6] - Tin prices may show a strong and volatile trend, with a short - term focus on the SHFE Tin fluctuation range of 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton. If prices break through, the upper limit could shift to around 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [10][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Review - Indonesia's tin supply may be constrained in Q1 2026 due to RKAB approvals, and as of January 7, 2026, the tin trading volume on its two major exchanges was 0 [4][6] - In Africa, political instability and underdeveloped infrastructure limit tin mine production and exports, with high - risk levels. For example, on January 8, 2026, the Chinese Embassy in the Democratic Republic of Congo reported security issues in South Kivu Province, and there were protests in key mining cities [5][6] Market Outlook Supply Side - The domestic mine tightening situation remains unresolved, constraining refined tin production. As of January 9, 2026, the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton [8][11] - China's cumulative refined tin production from January - December 2025 was 0.1787 million tonnes, down 2.8% year - on - year, and the single - month production in December 2025 was 1.60 tonnes, down 1.8% year - on - year [8][11] - Tin inventories have decreased recently. As of January 9, 2026, domestic tin ingot social inventory was 7,478 tons, down 1,042 tons from the previous period. By the end of December 2025, domestic tin ingot company inventory was 3,950 tons, down 1,400 tons from the previous period and 2,070 tons year - on - year [8][11] - Ongoing mine tightening will cause raw material shortages for smelters and low tin concentrate processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin production [9][12] Demand Side - The US and Europe are in interest - rate cut cycles and have fiscal expansions, which are expected to positively impact the global economy [9][12] - The semiconductor sector is growing rapidly, and consumption in photovoltaics and electric vehicles is expected to rise further. Considering the need to rebuild the supply chain inventory, tin ingot demand will grow sustainably [9][12]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing significant gains, with Shanghai tin futures showing a strong performance, reaching a high of 330,130.00 CNY/ton and a current increase of 2.06% [1] - The overall market supply and demand for tin is weak, with a decline in orders from tin processing companies and a decrease in operating rates, despite stable supply from domestic smelters [2] - Domestic tin inventory continues to rise but remains at a manageable level, not exerting significant pressure on prices, leading to a cautious short-term outlook for tin prices [2] Group 2 - Short-term demand for tin is weak, but there is an expectation of improved supply; however, low downstream inventory limits bargaining power, suggesting price fluctuations will follow market sentiment [2] - The domestic main contract for tin is expected to operate within the range of 300,000 to 335,000 CNY/ton, while the overseas tin price is projected to range from 39,000 to 43,000 USD/ton [2] - Increased tin exports from Indonesia last month are being monitored, along with the safety situation in the two largest importing countries in Africa, indicating ongoing market vigilance [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent fluctuations in tin prices are mainly affected by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin exports. Although the domestic price may open higher after the holiday, the probability of continuous strengthening is considered low. Attention should be paid to tariff risks [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 was at a discount of $61.99 per ton, and the domestic spot was at a premium of 300 yuan per ton [8][9]. - Overseas premium has declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14]. 1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17][18]. 1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 104 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 268 tons [23][24]. - This week, the LME inventory increased by 205 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants dropped to 9.96% [29]. 1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 2.04013 billion yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in an inflow direction [34][35]. 1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin slightly decreased, while the open interest slightly increased [36][37]. - This week, the trading volume of LME tin slightly decreased, and the open interest continued to decline [41][42]. 1.6 Position - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin slightly rebounded [46]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, 10,267 tons were imported, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [50]. - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton. The profitability of tin ore imports slightly rebounded [51]. 2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [53][54]. - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces slightly rebounded to 29.72% [55]. 2.3 Import - In August 2025, 1,296 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,640 tons were exported, with a net export of 344 tons. Among them, 501 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profitability was - 15,038 yuan per ton [60]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,843 tons [68]. 3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee slightly decreased. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises rebounded in August to 73.2%. The output and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises slightly decreased in July [70]. 3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products showed mixed performance. The output of integrated circuits decreased in August, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines slightly increased [77]. - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [79]. - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as tin prices [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is neutral, with a price range of 270,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the LME tin price soared by over 4%, reaching a high of $37,695. The recent main factor affecting tin prices is Indonesia's plan to close 1,000 illegal tin mines. However, it is currently believed that the probability of continuous price increases is low [5] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was $8/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 300 yuan/ton [9] - Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14] 1.2 Spread - This week, the inter - monthly structure of tin changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17] 1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory decreased by 563 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 523 tons [23] - This week, LME inventory increased by 270 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rose to 15.5% [28] 1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the funds invested in SHFE tin were 1,561,140,000 yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in an inflow direction [33] 1.5 Trading Volume and Open Interest - This week, the trading volume of SHFE tin decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly [35] - This week, the trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the open interest continued to decline [41] 1.6 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE tin increased slightly [46] 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, the import volume was 10,267 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [50] - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore increased slightly [51] 2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [53] - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 30.13%, a slight increase from last week [55] 2.3 Import - In August 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,296 tons, exports were 1,640 tons, resulting in a net export of 344 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 501 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 15,038 yuan/ton [60] 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption Volume - In August 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 15,843 tons [68] 3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fees decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises increased to 73.2% in August. The production and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises decreased slightly in July [70] 3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products varied. The output of integrated circuits decreased, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly [77] - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [79] - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased, in line with the performance of tin prices [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Tuesday afternoon may be related to smelter production cut expectations, but both macro and fundamental factors have limited impact. Macroscopically, the US retail sales data in July met expectations. Fundamentally, the repeated delay of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has been providing obvious support for tin prices and may have a continuous impact. In the short term, tin prices may remain volatile, with a stable macro environment and room for speculation on supply - side topics [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.36%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 268,090 yuan/ton, 268,320 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The latest price of LME Tin 3M is 33,770 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 100 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.3%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.92, with a daily increase of 0.01 and a daily increase rate of 0.13% [6] - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, etc. have weekly declines, with the Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot price at 266,200 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 4,400 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.63% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import Data**: The latest tin import profit and loss is - 18,244.92 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 855.39 yuan and a daily decline rate of 4.92%. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [16] - **Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,513 tons, with a daily decline of 74 tons and a daily decline rate of 0.98%. The total LME tin inventory remains unchanged at 1,655 tons [18]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - Latest Closing Price of Tin: 264,950 yuan/ton [2] - Monthly Price Range Forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 14.36% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 26.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline [2] - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase [2] - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Tin price declined slightly during the week as expected due to limited macro - impact [3] - Myanmar's tin mine mining licenses are mostly approved, expected to resume work in late August, which is a major factor for tin fundamentals but unlikely to affect short - term supply - demand [3] - If Myanmar's resumption is below expectations again, previous negative factors may turn into short - term positives [3] - Tin price may fluctuate in the next week, and supply - side topics still have room for speculation [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Semiconductor sector is still in an expansion cycle [4] - Myanmar's production resumption is below expectations [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals [5] - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China [5] - Slowdown of semiconductor sector expansion and transition from expansion to contraction cycle [5] Group 6: Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 265,220 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,215 | 530 | 1.62% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.12 | 0.1 | 1.25% | [6] Group 7: Spot Market Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 264,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.4% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 500 | - 200 | - 28.57% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 252,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.51% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 256,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.47% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 172,250 | - 3,500 | - 1.99% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 179,750 | - 3,500 | - 1.91% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 270,750 | - 6,500 | - 2.34% | [11] Group 8: Inventory Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 7,286 | - 143 | - 1.92% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Guangdong) | tons | 4,853 | 22 | 0.46% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Shanghai) | tons | 1,562 | - 165 | - 9.55% | | LME Tin Inventory (Total) | tons | 1,855 | 35 | 1.92% | [19] Group 9: Other Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 14,300.05 | 1,473.25 | - 9.34% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | - 500 | - 4.74% | [20]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core View - The report believes that the 7.9 - magnitude earthquake in Myanmar on March 28, although the epicenter is some distance from the main tin - mining areas, is likely to delay the resumption of production in the tin mines. The tin price volatility may remain high in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to decline slightly as the earthquake has caused an over - increase in the price, and it is expected to give back some of the irrational gains. The overall view is a slight decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - The Shanghai Tin Index opened high and closed low on Monday, finally stabilizing at 282,000 yuan per ton [2] 2. Industrial Performance - The fundamentals of the tin industry remain stable [2] 3. Futures Price - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 282,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 282,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 282,290 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME Tin 3M is 35,895 US dollars/ton, up 640 US dollars or 1.82%; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.8, down 0.11 or 1.39% [3] 4. Spot Price - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 282,200 yuan/ton, up 5,200 yuan or 1.88% week - on - week; 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 100% week - on - week; 40% tin concentrate is 269,700 yuan/ton, up 5,200 yuan or 1.97% week - on - week; 60% tin concentrate is 273,700 yuan/ton, up 5,200 yuan or 1.94% week - on - week; 60A solder bar is 182,750 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan or 1.67% week - on - week; 63A solder bar is 190,750 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan or 1.87% week - on - week; lead - free solder is 288,750 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan or 1.76% week - on - week [7] 5. Import Profit and Processing Fee - The tin import profit is - 23,395.74 yuan/ton, down 2,911.56 yuan or 14.21% day - on - day; the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan or 23.39% [11] 6. Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,946 tons, up 116 tons or 1.31% day - on - day; the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,435 tons, up 81 tons or 1.86% day - on - day; the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 3,346 tons, up 35 tons or 1.06% day - on - day; the total LME tin inventory is 3,050 tons, down 55 tons or 1.77% [15]