锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：印尼影响锡价上涨 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：270000-285000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01-03 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-08 03-19 03-31 04-12 04-23 05-07 05-19 05-29 06-11 06-24 07-07 07-17 07-29 08-09 08-20 09-01 09-11 09-23 10-11 10-22 11-03 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-17 12-30 吨 全球锡总库存 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 01-02 01-14 01-26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Tuesday afternoon may be related to smelter production cut expectations, but both macro and fundamental factors have limited impact. Macroscopically, the US retail sales data in July met expectations. Fundamentally, the repeated delay of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has been providing obvious support for tin prices and may have a continuous impact. In the short term, tin prices may remain volatile, with a stable macro environment and room for speculation on supply - side topics [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.36%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 268,090 yuan/ton, 268,320 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The latest price of LME Tin 3M is 33,770 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 100 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.3%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.92, with a daily increase of 0.01 and a daily increase rate of 0.13% [6] - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, etc. have weekly declines, with the Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot price at 266,200 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 4,400 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.63% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import Data**: The latest tin import profit and loss is - 18,244.92 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 855.39 yuan and a daily decline rate of 4.92%. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [16] - **Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,513 tons, with a daily decline of 74 tons and a daily decline rate of 0.98%. The total LME tin inventory remains unchanged at 1,655 tons [18]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - Latest Closing Price of Tin: 264,950 yuan/ton [2] - Monthly Price Range Forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 14.36% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 26.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline [2] - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase [2] - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Tin price declined slightly during the week as expected due to limited macro - impact [3] - Myanmar's tin mine mining licenses are mostly approved, expected to resume work in late August, which is a major factor for tin fundamentals but unlikely to affect short - term supply - demand [3] - If Myanmar's resumption is below expectations again, previous negative factors may turn into short - term positives [3] - Tin price may fluctuate in the next week, and supply - side topics still have room for speculation [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Semiconductor sector is still in an expansion cycle [4] - Myanmar's production resumption is below expectations [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals [5] - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China [5] - Slowdown of semiconductor sector expansion and transition from expansion to contraction cycle [5] Group 6: Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 265,220 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,215 | 530 | 1.62% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.12 | 0.1 | 1.25% | [6] Group 7: Spot Market Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 264,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.4% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 500 | - 200 | - 28.57% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 252,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.51% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 256,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.47% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 172,250 | - 3,500 | - 1.99% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 179,750 | - 3,500 | - 1.91% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 270,750 | - 6,500 | - 2.34% | [11] Group 8: Inventory Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 7,286 | - 143 | - 1.92% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Guangdong) | tons | 4,853 | 22 | 0.46% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Shanghai) | tons | 1,562 | - 165 | - 9.55% | | LME Tin Inventory (Total) | tons | 1,855 | 35 | 1.92% | [19] Group 9: Other Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 14,300.05 | 1,473.25 | - 9.34% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | - 500 | - 4.74% | [20]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core View - The report believes that the 7.9 - magnitude earthquake in Myanmar on March 28, although the epicenter is some distance from the main tin - mining areas, is likely to delay the resumption of production in the tin mines. The tin price volatility may remain high in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to decline slightly as the earthquake has caused an over - increase in the price, and it is expected to give back some of the irrational gains. The overall view is a slight decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - The Shanghai Tin Index opened high and closed low on Monday, finally stabilizing at 282,000 yuan per ton [2] 2. Industrial Performance - The fundamentals of the tin industry remain stable [2] 3. Futures Price - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 282,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 282,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 282,290 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME Tin 3M is 35,895 US dollars/ton, up 640 US dollars or 1.82%; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.8, down 0.11 or 1.39% [3] 4. Spot Price - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 282,200 yuan/ton, up 5,200 yuan or 1.88% week - on - week; 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 100% week - on - week; 40% tin concentrate is 269,700 yuan/ton, up 5,200 yuan or 1.97% week - on - week; 60% tin concentrate is 273,700 yuan/ton, up 5,200 yuan or 1.94% week - on - week; 60A solder bar is 182,750 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan or 1.67% week - on - week; 63A solder bar is 190,750 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan or 1.87% week - on - week; lead - free solder is 288,750 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan or 1.76% week - on - week [7] 5. Import Profit and Processing Fee - The tin import profit is - 23,395.74 yuan/ton, down 2,911.56 yuan or 14.21% day - on - day; the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan or 23.39% [11] 6. Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,946 tons, up 116 tons or 1.31% day - on - day; the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,435 tons, up 81 tons or 1.86% day - on - day; the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 3,346 tons, up 35 tons or 1.06% day - on - day; the total LME tin inventory is 3,050 tons, down 55 tons or 1.77% [15]