证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 27 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数涨跌不一。截止收盘，沪指上涨 0.39%，收 报 4162.88 点；深证成指跌 0.06%，收报 14495.09 点；创业板指跌 1.04%， 收报 3310.3 点；科创 50 指数涨 0.15%，收报 1488.02 点。总体上，全天个股 涨多跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3267 只个股上涨，2066 只个股下跌，146 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 24880 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 504 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，钢铁、煤炭、有色金属、公用 事业、农林牧渔等行业领涨，涨幅分别为 3.37%、3.20%、3.10%、2.27%、2.06%， 建筑材料、通信、电子、汽车、家用电器等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 1.45%、1.38%、 0.71%、0.41%、0.39%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前的概念板块为稀有金属精选、稀土、培育 钻石、小金 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 25 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20260225 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数普遍收涨。截止收盘，沪指上涨 0.72%，收 报 4147.23 点；深证成指涨 1.29%，收报 14475.87 点；创业板指涨 1.41%， 收报 3354.82 点；科创 50 指数涨 0.54%，收报 1473.28 点。总体上，全天个 股涨多跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3742 只个股上涨，仅 1609 只个股下跌， 127 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 24625 亿元，较上个交易日放量 2605 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，钢铁、有色金属、建筑材料、 房地产、基础化工等行业领涨，涨幅分别为 4.69%、3.48%、2.75%、2.53%、 2.16%，仅有传媒、银行领跌，跌幅分别为 1.15%、0.46%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前的概念板块为稀土、稀有金属精选、磷化 工、小金属、稀土永磁、 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - On January 19, the A-share market showed a shrinking and fluctuating trend with differentiated performances among major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.29% at 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.02%, the STAR 50 fell 0.48%, the Wind All-A rose 0.41%, the Wind A500 rose 0.28%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.28%. The UHV and AVIC concepts exploded with many stocks hitting the daily limit, while the petrochemical and catering tourism sectors performed well. The CPO, OCS, semiconductor silicon wafers, and consumer electronics sectors led the decline. The A-share market's total trading volume for the day was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Index closing prices and changes: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 closed at 3075.9357, down 0.12%; the CSI 300 closed at 4734.4556, up 0.05%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8265.6462, up 0.40%. Their trading volumes were 55.87 billion, 267.61 billion, and 326.69 billion respectively, and their turnovers were 1661.80 billion yuan, 6551.49 billion yuan, and 5816.76 billion yuan respectively [3] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - Option trading volume and position: For the SSE 50, the call option trading volume was 2.84 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 1.88 million contracts, the daily trading volume was 5.25 million contracts, the call option position was 3.23 million contracts, the put option position was 2.02 million contracts, and the PCR was 0.62. For the CSI 300, the call option trading volume was 8.50 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 5.48 million contracts, the daily trading volume was 15.38 million contracts, the call option position was 9.17 million contracts, the put option position was 6.20 million contracts, and the PCR was 0.68. For the CSI 1000, the call option trading volume was 22.71 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 13.04 million contracts, the daily trading volume was 27.10 million contracts, the call option position was 13.94 million contracts, the put option position was 13.16 million contracts, and the PCR was 0.94 [3] Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility and volatility cone charts for the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, as well as their next-month at-the-money implied volatility and volatility smile curves [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market is characterized by a structural trend. On January 19, the four major index futures contracts for the current month showed mixed performance. On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. The positions of the four major index futures also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of various index futures showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4734.5, up 0.05%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3075.9, down 0.12%; the CSI 500 index closed at 8288, up 0.67%; and the CSI 1000 index closed at 8265.7, up 0.40% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of different index futures and their contracts also varied. For instance, the basis of IF2602 was -1.66, and that of IH2602 was 0.46 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each index futures contract changed. For example, the trading volume of IF2602 decreased by 5290 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1168 lots [1]. 3.2 Market Activity - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 34310 lots, IH by 18564 lots, IC by 21181 lots, and IM by 35971 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of index futures also changed. The total open interest of IF decreased by 4289 lots, IH by 1610 lots, IC increased by 6196 lots, and IM increased by 1234 lots [3]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions The positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts changed. For example, in the IF2601 contract, the long - position decreased by 1007 lots, and the short - position decreased by 724 lots [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - **A - share Market**: A - shares were in a shrinking and volatile state. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%, and the total trading volume of A - shares was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: Hong Kong stocks opened lower and closed lower. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.24%, and the total trading volume was 2256.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, down from 2550.79 billion Hong Kong dollars the previous day [7]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In 2025, China's GDP was 1401879 billion yuan, a 5% increase compared to the previous year. The national population at the end of 2025 was 1404890000, a decrease of 3390000 from the previous year, with a natural population growth rate of - 2.41‰ [7][8].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to close at 4114.00 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% to 14294.05 points. In contrast, the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 0.48% to 1506.86 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.70% to 3337.61 points. Overall, 3526 stocks rose while 1826 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 27083 billion yuan, down by 3179 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included basic chemicals (up 2.70%), petroleum and petrochemicals (up 2.08%), electric equipment (up 1.84%), automobiles (up 1.70%), social services (up 1.63%), and building materials (up 1.61%). Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines were computers (down 1.55%), communications (down 0.96%), and banking (down 0.60%) [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included ultra-high voltage, AVIC system, Hainan Free Trade Port, fluorine chemicals, charging piles, virtual power plants, selected chemical raw materials, selected animal health, selected chemical fibers, ice and snow tourism, general aviation, large aircraft, aircraft carriers, and selected rare metals [2].

Market Performance - The three major stock indices closed mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation Index decreased by 0.21% [1] Sector Performance - The sectors leading the gains included ultra-high voltage, smart grid, and general aviation [1] - Conversely, the sectors with the largest declines were CPO, OCS, semiconductor silicon wafers, and consumer electronics [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.71 trillion yuan, which represents a decrease of 317.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hu Silicon Industry, anticipates a significant loss in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a loss between -1.53 billion to -1.28 billion yuan, which represents an increase in losses compared to the previous year [1] Industry Overview - The global semiconductor market is expected to reach a size of 772 billion dollars in 2025, reflecting a growth of 22.5% year-on-year, driven primarily by AI applications and data center infrastructure demand, while consumer electronics and industrial electronics remain weak [1] - In the silicon wafer sector, global semiconductor silicon wafer shipment area is projected to grow by approximately 5.4% year-on-year in 2025, with 300mm wafers benefiting from advanced processes and AI chip demand, while 200mm and below wafers are expected to decline by about 3% due to weak demand [2] Company Performance - Hu Silicon Industry's sales of 300mm silicon wafers increased by over 25% compared to the same period in 2024, but revenue growth was limited to about 15% due to competitive pricing pressures [2] - The company is currently in a capacity ramp-up phase for its expansion projects, which is affecting short-term profitability but is expected to support long-term sustainable development through investments in high-spec and specialized products [3] - The company has faced challenges with its subsidiaries, Okmetic OY and Shanghai Xin'ao Technology Co., Ltd., which primarily deal with 200mm and below silicon wafers, leading to performance below expectations and potential goodwill impairment [3] Strategic Focus - The company aims to continue focusing on 300mm silicon wafer technology advancements and accelerate the development of high-end silicon-based materials through ongoing projects [4] - The completion of recent financing efforts is expected to inject new momentum into the company's technological breakthroughs, capacity enhancement, and market expansion [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance today, with major indices mostly closing higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% to close at 4085.77 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.06% to 14030.56 points. The ChiNext Index saw a gain of 0.31%, closing at 3329.69 points. Overall, there were 2164 stocks that rose, 3188 that fell, and 107 that remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 285.41 billion yuan, an increase of 47.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the sectors that performed well included Comprehensive, Coal, Electronics, and Communications, with increases of 3.86%, 2.47%, 1.25%, and 1.24% respectively. Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines were Oil & Petrochemicals, Non-bank Financials, Beauty Care, Computers, and Banks, with decreases of 1.73%, 1.13%, 1.03%, 0.81%, and 0.72% respectively [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that saw the most significant gains today included Semiconductor Equipment, Lithography Machines, the SMIC International Supply Chain, Semiconductor Materials, Industrial Gases, Rare Earths, Semiconductor Wafers, CRO, Wafer Industry, Nuclear Fusion, Selected Coal Mining, Cobalt Mining, Optical Modules (CPO), National Big Fund, and Aquaculture [2].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have issued a notice regarding a 625 billion yuan special government bond plan to support the consumption of old goods in 2026 [2] - The new policy on individual sales of housing capital gains tax states that individuals selling homes purchased within two years will pay a 3% tax, while those selling homes purchased for over two years will be exempt from the tax starting January 1, 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released a digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry, aiming for significant integration of digital technologies by 2027 and achieving a high level of overall digital development by 2030 [3] Group 2 - Changjiang Electric Power announced a cash dividend distribution plan, proposing a payout of 2.1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 5.138 billion yuan [4] - Dongjie Intelligent has decided to terminate its major asset restructuring plan involving the acquisition of a controlling stake in Aobo (Beijing) Intelligent Technology, with no adverse impact on its business operations [4] - Mingde Biological has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Wuhan Bikaier Rescue Supplies Co., which will enhance its emergency medical service capabilities [4] Group 3 - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wukuang Salt Lake Co. for 4.605 billion yuan, which will make Wukuang a subsidiary and included in the consolidated financial statements [9] - Guotou Zhonglu intends to purchase 100% of China Electronic Engineering Design Institute for 6.026 billion yuan through a share issuance, expanding its business into the electronic information industry [9] - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a positive outlook for domestic semiconductor silicon wafer companies due to increasing demand driven by capital expenditure and technological advancements [10]

Group 1: Government Policies and Initiatives - The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds for the 2026 consumer goods replacement subsidy plan has been allocated in advance [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new policy on personal sales of housing value-added tax, effective from January 1, 2026, imposing a 3% tax for properties sold within two years and exempting those sold after two years [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry, aiming for significant integration of digital technologies by 2027 and achieving a high level of digital development by 2030 [6] Group 2: Company News - Dongjie Intelligent announced the termination of its major asset restructuring plan to acquire a controlling stake in Aobo (Beijing) Intelligent Technology, with no adverse impact on its business operations [4] - Mingde Biological signed an equity acquisition intention agreement to acquire 100% of Wuhan Bikaier Rescue Supplies Co., which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [4] - Changjiang Electric Power reported a net profit of 28.193 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025 and announced a cash dividend of 2.10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 5.138 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - Citic Securities highlighted that silicon wafer demand is expected to continue increasing due to the expansion of wafer fab capacities, with domestic manufacturers likely to benefit from next-generation 3D stacked chip products [10] - CICC expressed an optimistic outlook for domestic and overseas wind power demand in 2026, driven by rising prices for onshore wind turbines and accelerated industry exports [10]