卢比国际化
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印度突然反水!向特朗普承诺断购俄石油后,6000万桶原油却还在运
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-18 14:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conflicting narratives between the U.S. and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil, highlighting India's strategic position between U.S. pressure and its reliance on discounted Russian oil amidst geopolitical tensions [1][3][25]. Group 1: U.S.-India Relations - Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil after a certain grace period, but the Indian Foreign Ministry denied any such conversation took place [1][3]. - The U.S. is India's largest trading partner, with a trade volume of $128.8 billion in 2024, and India has a trade surplus of $45.8 billion with the U.S. [9]. - Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50% if India did not cease its Russian oil purchases, which would severely impact India's textile and electronics industries [11]. Group 2: India's Oil Dependency - Prior to the Ukraine conflict, Russian oil accounted for less than 3% of India's imports, but this figure surged to 39% by 2025 due to discounted prices [5][7]. - In 2024, India saved $5 billion by purchasing Russian oil at prices 15% lower than international rates, and it has also been reselling processed Russian oil to sanctioned European countries [7][9]. Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - Russia has shifted to using the Chinese yuan for oil trade settlements due to Western sanctions, which poses challenges for India as it has been trying to internationalize the Indian rupee [13][15]. - The yuan's stability and convertibility have made it an attractive option for Russia, while the Indian rupee's lack of free convertibility limits its utility in international trade [15]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The article suggests that India's dual approach of publicly denying U.S. claims while continuing to import Russian oil reflects its historical diplomatic strategy of balancing relations between major powers [19][25]. - The ongoing situation has implications for the global oil market, as it may lead to a shift away from the dollar in oil transactions, with more countries considering the yuan as a viable alternative [25].
印度银行向尼泊尔居民开放卢比贷款
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-10-11 05:50
印度储备银行(RBI)近日宣布新政策,允许尼泊尔、不丹和斯里兰卡居民通过印度银行及其境外分行 直接获得印度卢比贷款。此举旨在推动卢比国际化,减少对美元的依赖,并促进南亚地区的跨境贸易结 算。对尼泊尔而言,此政策影响复杂。积极一面在于,当中小企业在尼泊尔国内面临信贷紧缩时,或可 更便捷地获得融资。然而,经济学家也发出警告:这可能导致尼泊尔从印度的进口进一步增加,从而加 剧该国已有的巨额贸易逆差。同时,尼泊尔国内银行的贷款业务可能受到冲击,国家金融独立性和外汇 储备管理也将面临新挑战。目前,尼泊尔央行已获悉该政策,并表示正在研究其潜在影响,后续将制定 相应的监管措施予以应对。 ...
金砖出现杂音,印度开首枪后,普京也不反美元,中国加速增持黄金
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 04:34
Core Viewpoint - The BRICS nations are experiencing internal disagreements regarding "de-dollarization," particularly between India and Russia, which poses challenges to their cooperation [1] Group 1: India's Position - India was one of the first BRICS countries to express reluctance towards aggressively pursuing "de-dollarization" [4] - In 2025, India's Foreign Minister stated that India does not intend to undermine the dollar's status but aims to promote the rupee as an international currency [4] - The effectiveness of India's policy allowing international settlements in rupees has been limited, with less than 10% of external trade settled in rupees by August 2025 [4] Group 2: Russia's Attitude Shift - Russia was previously a strong advocate for "de-dollarization," significantly reducing the dollar's share in its foreign exchange reserves after the 2014 Crimea crisis [5] - In October 2025, Putin indicated that Russia does not plan to be "anti-dollar," suggesting that previous efforts were driven by U.S. sanctions rather than voluntary choice [5] - Russia's need to price oil in dollars and the challenges of settling trade with India in rupees have led to a more pragmatic approach [5][8] Group 3: China's Stable Strategy - Unlike India and Russia, China has maintained a stable strategy by increasing gold reserves and promoting digital currency [10] - As of August 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.02 million ounces, the highest on record, aimed at diversifying away from dollar assets [10] - China is also advancing the "BRICS Digital Currency Bridge" project to facilitate cross-border payments and reduce reliance on the dollar [11] Group 4: Underlying Reasons for Disagreements - The differing positions on "de-dollarization" among BRICS nations stem from their unique national interests [13] - India seeks to internationalize the rupee without antagonizing the U.S., which is crucial for its IT and agricultural exports [13] - Russia's compromise is influenced by U.S. sanctions, while China leverages its strong economic foundation to gradually promote the internationalization of the renminbi [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite differing attitudes towards "de-dollarization," cooperation among BRICS countries continues [16] - Each country may adopt distinct strategies based on their circumstances, with India likely to pursue rupee settlements while relying on the dollar [16] - The BRICS New Development Bank plans to issue $5 billion in green bonds in 2025, denominated in renminbi and euros, as a compromise to avoid direct confrontation with the dollar [19]