国际市场上根本没人认卢比，你拿着卢比想去买其他国家的东西，人家理都不理你。俄罗斯本来想拿着 这些卢比从印度买点急需的商品，结果一看，印度除了神油、咖喱，也没啥能入得了俄罗斯眼的硬货。 而且卢比汇率还特别不稳定，贬值得飞快，俄罗斯手里的卢比越放越不值钱，这换谁谁不憋屈啊？ 其实卢比之所以这么没存在感，核心问题就是印度的生产力不行。你想啊，货币的信用说到底得靠实体 经济撑着，人家拿着你的钱，得能买到实实在在的东西才行。中国为啥能成为"世界工厂"，人民币能越 来越吃香？就因为全球各国拿着人民币，小到手机、衣服，大到汽车、机械设备，几乎啥都能买到。 可印度呢，连自己国内的很多商品都得靠进口，造不出别人需要的东西，货币自然没人愿意要，全球对 卢比的需求量极小，这也导致过去3年俄罗斯与印度的贸易合作始终处于被动接受的状态。 不过风水轮流转，现在轮到印度求着俄罗斯了。之前印度一直跟在美国屁股后面，想借着美国的势力在 亚太地区搞事情，可后来美印因为贸易摩擦、技术封锁闹得不可开交，关系彻底破裂。这时候印度才发 现，自己在国际上没啥靠山了，只能转头求俄罗斯，甚至想拉上中国一起制衡美国。 普京对印度的信任程度其实有限，为啥这么说呢 ...

你平时在海淘时，是否习惯性地选择美元付款？或者在给国外亲朋转账时，总是默认为先换成美元？过去几十年，美元一直是国际交易的"默认货币"，很多 人觉得跨境支付就应该用美元，似乎没有别的选择。 然而，最近的新闻里，出现了一些不同寻常的动向。印度表示外贸可以用卢比结算，澳大利亚开始收取人民币支付铁矿石款项，甚至连俄罗斯，也开始用人 民币收天然气款项。这些现象让人不禁思考：美元作为"世界通用货币"的地位，真的会动摇吗？这场"货币转换"的热潮，是短期的跟风，还是全球货币格局 正在发生改变？ 一、为何连美国的盟友也开始放弃美元？ 比如俄罗斯，作为能源大国，原本用美元做外贸结算，但随着美国将其踢出SWIFT结算系统、冻结外汇储备，俄罗斯不再能依赖美元进行正常交易。于是， 俄罗斯自己建立了一个结算系统，甚至宣布开始用人民币收取天然气款项。这样一来，印度、土耳其等天然气进口国可以直接用人民币支付，避免了换汇的 麻烦，也减少了汇率波动带来的风险。 更让人意外的是，长期以来和美国关系密切的澳大利亚也开始"务实"地改变做法。今年，澳大利亚首次在铁矿石交易中使用人民币结算。铁矿石是澳大利亚 经济的重要支柱，之前的交易几乎全部使用美元，而 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee has become one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia this year, primarily due to mixed signals from U.S. President Trump regarding tariffs on India, which could lead to further depreciation if the trade war with the U.S. is not resolved [1][6] - The Indian Rupee hit a historical low of 88.491 against the U.S. dollar on September 11, exacerbated by a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S., the highest in Asia, leading to foreign investor withdrawals and a negative economic outlook [1][4] - Economists predict that if the U.S. maintains the 50% tariff, the Rupee could depreciate to 89 per dollar by early next year, while a resolution to the tariff dispute could stabilize it around 88 per dollar [1][3] Group 2 - The high tariffs are impacting multiple sectors in India, including textiles, apparel, and seafood, with some exporters lobbying the central bank to allow them to exchange profits at a rate of approximately 103 Rupees per dollar [4][6] - The Indian economy's growth rate could decline by 50 to 60 basis points if the tariffs persist, with the GDP growth rate for the last fiscal year slowing to 6.5% from 9.2% the previous year [6][7] - Despite the challenges, India is projected to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, but it must enhance its resilience against external shocks, as highlighted by the ongoing tensions with the U.S. [7][8] Group 3 - The Indian government aims for an average annual economic growth rate of around 7.8% over the next few decades to become the world's third-largest economy by 2047 [7][8] - To achieve these goals, India needs to diversify its trade relationships and reduce protectionist barriers, which currently account for about 40% of its trade barriers [8] - Reforming the internal market is essential for India to respond effectively to external pressures, such as the tariffs imposed by the U.S., and to attract private capital for growth [8]

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee has depreciated to a historic low against the US dollar, reaching 88.1712 Rupees per dollar, influenced by concerns over a 50% tariff imposed by the US, which is expected to impact India's economic growth and corporate earnings [1][4] - The depreciation of the Rupee is exacerbated by ongoing foreign selling of Indian equities, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia this year [1] - Citigroup estimates that the new tariffs on export-oriented sectors such as textiles, footwear, and jewelry could reduce India's annual growth rate by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The increase in US tariffs poses a new threat to India's already fragile economic recovery, with the depreciation of the Rupee heightening the risk of imported inflation [4] - Global funds have withdrawn over $13 billion from the Indian stock market this year amid weak corporate earnings, while the Reserve Bank of India’s three interest rate cuts have diminished support for the Rupee [4] - The upcoming data is expected to show a 6.7% growth in India's GDP for the second quarter, potentially driven by exporters rushing to ship goods following the suspension of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump [4]

交易员：印度央行可能出售美元以支撑卢比。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to sell US dollars to curb the depreciation of the Indian Rupee [1] Group 1 - The Indian Rupee has been experiencing significant depreciation, prompting the RBI to consider intervention measures [1] - Selling US dollars is a strategy that the RBI may employ to stabilize the currency and prevent further decline [1] - The potential sale of dollars indicates the RBI's proactive approach to managing currency fluctuations and maintaining economic stability [1]

Group 1 - The dollar index has fallen below 100, while the 30-year Treasury yield has surged past 5%, leading to an additional $50 billion in annual interest payments [2] - The U.S. is experiencing a wave of de-dollarization, primarily driven by actions from the Trump administration, including a recent executive order imposing 100% tariffs on key exports from 23 countries [2][4] - Countries like Russia, Brazil, and Iran are increasingly using alternative currencies for trade, with 92.3% of Russia's trade with BRICS partners now settled in currencies other than the dollar [4] Group 2 - The U.S. sanctions have prompted a significant shift away from the dollar, with China selling $74 billion in U.S. Treasuries, marking a 16-year low in holdings [4] - The SPFS system in Russia, which bypasses SWIFT, is now connected to 159 countries, indicating a growing trend towards alternative payment systems [5] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped below 55%, the lowest level since 1995, signaling a decline in dollar dominance [7]

Core Viewpoint - A silent financial revolution is unfolding globally, with multiple countries moving away from the US dollar towards local currency settlements, initiated by Russia and followed by China, Brazil, India, and Saudi Arabia [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Sanctions on Global Financial Systems - The freezing of approximately $300 billion of Russian foreign reserves by the US and its allies marked a significant shock to the global financial system, demonstrating the vulnerability of assets held in the dollar system [3][5]. - The International Monetary Fund reported a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 71.14% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2024, indicating a growing trend of countries distancing themselves from dollar dominance [7]. Group 2: Shift to Local Currency Settlements - Russia's "ruble settlement order" mandated that natural gas trade with "unfriendly countries" must be conducted in rubles, leading to European countries reluctantly opening ruble accounts to facilitate payments [9]. - Brazil's decision to implement direct trade settlements in local currencies with China in March 2023 marked a significant shift in Latin America, challenging the necessity of the dollar as an intermediary [10][12]. - India's establishment of a local currency settlement mechanism with the UAE and subsequent agreements with 18 other countries to support trade in rupees reflects a strategic move to create a currency trade network independent of the dollar [14]. Group 3: Changes in Oil Trade Dynamics - Saudi Arabia's decision not to renew its 50-year oil dollar agreement has raised concerns about the future of the dollar's role in oil pricing, with reports suggesting a potential shift to transactions in yuan [16][20]. - The implementation of "oil-for-goods" agreements between Iran and Iraq signifies a growing trend of bypassing dollar settlements in oil trade, establishing new trade paradigms in the Middle East [22]. Group 4: Digital Currency Innovations - Russia's adoption of a digital currency for cross-border payments, effective from September 2024, represents a significant technological shift that could undermine traditional banking systems and US financial oversight [24]. - The mBridge project, involving multiple countries, aims to facilitate direct digital currency cross-border payments, further reducing reliance on the dollar [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India may be selling dollars to support the rupee amid rising oil prices [1] Group 1 - Traders indicate that the Indian central bank's actions are a response to the increasing oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum among various countries, particularly in Asia, driven by factors such as trade agreements and increased investment in alternative assets like gold and digital currencies [1][3]. Group 1: Indicators of De-dollarization - A recent study by Forex Complex identified three main indicators of de-dollarization: the decreasing share of the dollar in national reserves, the increasing share of gold, and the growing use of alternative currencies in bilateral trade [3]. - Countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and Japan are leading the efforts in de-dollarization, indicating a systematic shift away from reliance on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Regional Developments - ASEAN has established an agreement prioritizing local currency transactions to mitigate risks associated with U.S. monetary policy changes and trade restrictions [3]. - Indonesia has reported that approximately 15% of its trade with China and Japan is conducted using alternative currencies, including the use of the Indonesian rupiah for transactions with Japan [3]. Group 3: Impact of the Pandemic - The trend towards reducing dependence on the dollar has become particularly pronounced following the COVID-19 pandemic, as many Asian countries seek to lessen their reliance on a dollar-denominated financial system [5]. - The rise of the Chinese yuan is notable, with China establishing closer ties with ASEAN and Middle Eastern countries through yuan-denominated trade [5]. Group 4: Current Currency Shares - As of March, the yuan accounted for approximately 4.1% of global payment shares, significantly lower than the dollar's 49%, but its growth potential is considerable given China's economic size and growth prospects [5].