与此同时，国际货币基金组织的最新数据显示，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比已经跌破了60%，创下30年来的新低。 这些数字背后，是一场正在全球范围 内悄然发生的货币格局重构。 乌拉圭央行在2025年12月27日宣布了一系列旨在提升本国比索使用比例的措施。 这些措施包括提高银行对美元贷款的资本金要求，同时取消部分比索存款 的准备金规定，以激励银行增加本币放贷。 当局还在考虑强制要求以外国货币标价的商品必须同时标注比索价格。 这些政策出自一个超过三分之二银行存款都以美元持有的国家。 乌拉圭人对美元的依赖始于20世纪下半叶的高通胀和货币贬值时期，数十年的经济不稳定 让国民对本国货币失去信心。 时至今日，自动取款机同时提供比索和美元，汽车、房产等大额交易仍以美元定价。 托洛萨行长指出，这种深度美元化给国家货币政策带来了严重制约。 本币存款不足限制了信贷供给，因为监管规定限制银行向收入以比索计价的家庭和企 业发放美元贷款。 就在宣布去美元化措施的前几天，乌拉圭央行意外降息50个基点。 这一决策的背景是乌拉圭11月通胀年率为4.1%，低于4.5%的官方目标水平。 乌拉圭央行 还下调了短期通胀预测，预计在国内进口价格走弱的背景下 ...

"如果卢比会说话，它一定会请假休息一年，因为2025年卢比是如假包换的全亚洲最差货币……" "（印度卢比）是今年亚洲表现最糟糕的货币，在全球最差货币中也名列前茅。" 以上内容来自印度发行量最大、历史最悠久的英文日报《印度时报》的报道，而最近关于印度卢比"拉 胯"表现的讨论还有不少。 今年以来，印度卢比已累计贬值5.5%，卢比对美元汇率跌至历史新低。多家财经媒体对印度总理莫 迪"卢比国际化"的梦想表达了担忧，比较含蓄的说法是"前路坎坷"，耿直者则干脆直言"不切实际的想 法还是放在一边吧"。 美国关税政策是卢比承压的直接原因。 当地时间8月25日，美国国土安全部发布预告，拟自8月27日零时起对印度商品加征50%的关税，该关税 将适用于"所有进口供消费或仓储提取供消费的印度商品"。 如此"关税大棒"砸碎了国际社会对印度市场的信心：根据花旗研报的估算，此轮关税可能导致印度国内 生产总值（GDP）年度增长率调降0.6个至0.8个百分点；摩根士丹利股票市场数据则显示，明晟 （MSCI）印度指数已连续4个月跑输MSCI新兴市场指数，"今年以来的相对表现落后超过15个百分点， 正走向20多年来最差的相对年度表现"。多家机构纷 ...

另一名消息人士说，卢比兑美元汇率跌破90卢比兑换1美元这一重要心理关口引发关注，且可能助长投机行为，但央行在必要时可以介入以打击 投机行为。 路透社报道，印度是资本外流最严重市场之一，外国投资者今年以来已抛售价值170亿美元的印度股票。与此同时，外国直接投资、贸易和离岸 融资流动均放缓。 《印度教徒报》4日报道，外汇交易员认为，投资者在印度与美国贸易关系持续紧张期间将采取谨慎态度。 CR外汇咨询公司执行董事阿米特·帕巴里说："外汇市场如今不再根据关联经济增长的头条消息交易。它需要稳定，明确的政策指引，以及一份不 会一再推迟的（印美）贸易协议。" 新华社北京12月4日电 路透社4日援引三名知情人士的话报道，印度中央银行将容忍印度货币卢比贬值，主要缘于印度经济面临多重风险，包括 贸易逆差扩大和资本外流等。 报道说，印度央行印度储备银行至11月一直通过积极抛售美元来支撑卢比，但在过去7个交易日中，印度央行已允许卢比对美元汇率下跌1.3%。 印度卢比对美元汇率3日首次跌破90卢比兑换1美元关口，创历史新低。 2023年4月26日，人们聚集在印度新德里的一处市场。新华社发（贾韦德·达尔摄） 消息人士说，印度央行释放容忍 ...

路透社4日援引三名知情人士的话报道，印度中央银行将容忍印度货币卢比贬值，主要缘于印度经济面 临多重风险，包括贸易逆差扩大和资本外流等。 报道说，印度央行印度储备银行至11月一直通过积极抛售美元来支撑卢比，但在过去7个交易日中，印 度央行已允许卢比对美元汇率下跌1.3%。印度卢比对美元汇率3日首次跌破90卢比兑换1美元关口，创 历史新低。 消息人士说，印度央行释放容忍卢比走弱的信号表明其干预措施将主要用于抑制汇率剧烈波动或投机性 交易积聚的迹象，而非捍卫卢比的任何特定汇率水平。 其中一名不愿公开姓名的消息人士说："当基本面一切因素都对该货币不利时，消耗外汇储备没有意 义。" 另一名消息人士说，卢比兑美元汇率跌破90卢比兑换1美元这一重要心理关口引发关注，且可能助长投 机行为，但央行在必要时可以介入以打击投机行为。 路透社报道，印度是资本外流最严重市场之一，外国投资者今年以来已抛售价值170亿美元的印度股 票。与此同时，外国直接投资、贸易和离岸融资流动均放缓。 《印度教徒报》4日报道，外汇交易员认为，投资者在印度与美国贸易关系持续紧张期间将采取谨慎态 度。 CR外汇咨询公司执行董事阿米特·帕巴里说："外汇市场如今 ...

Core Insights - The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, the lowest in nearly 30 years, and has not exceeded 60% for eleven consecutive quarters [1][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) attributes this decline primarily to exchange rate fluctuations, stating that the actual drop in dollar share is only 0.13 percentage points when adjusted for these factors [3] - There is a significant shift in investment strategies, with central banks reducing their purchases of US long-term securities by 94% in the second quarter, and instead opting to buy US stocks [5][10] Investment Trends - The US stock market has rebounded by 11% in the second quarter, contributing an estimated $189.4 billion in valuation gains to global dollar reserves [5] - Central banks are increasingly favoring gold, with global official gold reserves surpassing US Treasury holdings for the first time, reaching $3.86 trillion, which accounts for 23.56% of total global reserves [13] - The demand for gold has hit record levels, with purchases exceeding the average of the past decade by 41% [13] Currency Dynamics - The share of "other currencies" in global reserves has increased by 1.42 percentage points since 2022, indicating a trend of countries bypassing the dollar in trade settlements [16][20] - The Chinese yuan has gained prominence, becoming the fourth largest payment currency globally, with over 80 countries including it in their foreign exchange reserves [20] - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" is reshaping the global financial landscape, moving towards a more diversified currency system [21][23] Future Outlook - The shift from a dollar-dominated system to a multi-currency framework is expected to enhance flexibility and stability in the global economy [23] - The process of transitioning away from dollar reliance will be gradual, but the trend towards a diversified monetary system is becoming increasingly clear [23]

Core Viewpoint - The 2008 international financial crisis revealed inherent flaws and potential risks in the US dollar-dominated international monetary system, prompting emerging economies represented by BRICS nations to seek systemic reforms, including currency internationalization, to mitigate various risks. However, due to differences in economic structure, openness, and financial systems, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa exhibit varying degrees of enthusiasm and methods for currency internationalization. This article analyzes the processes and characteristics of these countries' currency internationalization to provide insights for advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][3]. Group 1: Russia's Ruble Internationalization - Russia has strategically prioritized the internationalization of the ruble to enhance the global competitiveness of its financial system, especially in the context of the Ukraine conflict, linking it to sanctions mitigation and economic independence [4][6]. - The ruble's internationalization process can be divided into four phases, starting from the post-Soviet era, where Russia aimed to restore the ruble's international status through reforms and establishing a market-based exchange rate system [4][5]. - Following the 2008 financial crisis, Russia actively promoted the ruble's international use through regional and bilateral agreements, with a focus on the Eurasian Economic Union and increasing ruble trade settlements [6][7]. Group 2: India's Rupee Internationalization - India's approach to rupee internationalization has been cautious, evolving through two main phases, with a focus on promoting foreign trade and better integration into international markets [8][9]. - Initially, India adopted a gradual and cautious strategy, emphasizing bilateral invoicing and settlements in rupees, while only fully liberalizing international investments in 2014 [9][10]. - Post-Ukraine conflict, India has become more proactive in promoting rupee internationalization, establishing direct settlement mechanisms and engaging in regional cooperation frameworks to enhance the rupee's global acceptance [10]. Group 3: Brazil's Real Internationalization - Brazil's strategy for the internationalization of the real is characterized by a lack of a defined timeline, focusing instead on enhancing international and regional trade shares [11][12]. - Brazil implemented earlier reforms in exchange rate policy and capital account liberalization, transitioning to a floating exchange rate system in 1999 and promoting capital account openness [11][12]. - The internationalization of the real is facilitated through regional cooperation, particularly within the Southern Common Market, promoting trade settlements in local currencies and exploring the possibility of a unified currency among member states [12]. Group 4: South Africa's Rand Internationalization - South Africa has not set explicit goals or timelines for rand internationalization, but emphasizes the currency's stability and convertibility as crucial for economic support [13][14]. - The rand's internationalization has been primarily focused on regional usage, leveraging South Africa's influence in Africa to expand the currency's reach [13][14]. - Following the end of apartheid, South Africa's economic policies shifted towards market liberalization, enhancing the rand's trading volume and market activity [13]. Group 5: Insights and Implications - The currency internationalization efforts of these countries have shown some success, with increases in global foreign exchange trading shares for the rupee, real, and rand from 2010 to 2022 [15]. - Economic strength and stability are foundational for currency internationalization, with challenges such as inflation and political instability affecting the global acceptance of these currencies [16]. - The process of currency internationalization is also a de-dollarization effort, with a focus on regional expansion as a strategic approach to reduce reliance on the US dollar [18].

Group 1 - Russian oil traders have demanded that Indian state-owned refineries conduct transactions exclusively in RMB, indicating a shift away from accepting Indian Rupees [2][8] - The inability of the Indian Rupee to be recognized internationally limits its utility, as it cannot be easily exchanged for goods from other countries [4][6] - India's reliance on imports for many domestic goods undermines the credibility of the Rupee, leading to a lack of demand for it globally [6][8] Group 2 - The current geopolitical landscape has forced India to seek closer ties with Russia, especially after deteriorating relations with the US due to trade disputes [6][8] - Russia is leveraging India's dependence on its oil by requiring India to find its own sources of RMB for transactions, reflecting the changing dynamics in international trade [8][10] - The decline of US dollar dominance is evident as countries look for alternatives, with the RMB gaining traction due to China's strong production capabilities [8][15] Group 3 - The historical context shows that countries like Brazil had to rely on the US dollar due to a lack of alternatives, highlighting the impact of military power on currency dominance [11] - China's rise as a manufacturing powerhouse has allowed it to push for the internationalization of the RMB, reducing reliance on the US dollar [13][15] - The ultimate goal for China is to increase the RMB's share in global reserves to surpass that of the US dollar, marking a significant shift in global economic power [15]

Group 1 - The article discusses the emerging trend of countries moving away from the US dollar as the default currency for international trade, with nations like India, Australia, and Russia exploring alternative currencies for transactions [1][3][5] - Countries are seeking "dollar alternatives" due to a desire to maintain control over their financial systems and avoid reliance on the US, especially after incidents like the freezing of foreign reserves [3][11] - Australia has begun accepting payments in Chinese yuan for iron ore, indicating a shift towards prioritizing transaction convenience and security over the traditional use of the dollar [5][9] Group 2 - The decline in the dollar's appeal is attributed to the perception of "money insecurity," as countries fear their reserves could be frozen or restricted, leading to a loss of trust in the dollar [11][14] - The US's monetary policy, including frequent money printing and interest rate hikes, has contributed to inflation in other countries, prompting them to seek reduced dependence on the dollar [14][21] - Despite the trend towards de-dollarization, the dollar's dominance is expected to persist in the short term due to the US's comprehensive power in economic, military, and technological domains [16][19] Group 3 - The article suggests that while the dollar's hegemony is weakening, it is unlikely to collapse entirely, and a multi-currency system may emerge where different currencies play significant roles in various sectors [21][23] - The shift away from the dollar could impact everyday transactions, such as cross-border shopping, potentially allowing consumers to use their local currencies directly, thus reducing exchange rate risks [27]

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee has become one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia this year, primarily due to mixed signals from U.S. President Trump regarding tariffs on India, which could lead to further depreciation if the trade war with the U.S. is not resolved [1][6] - The Indian Rupee hit a historical low of 88.491 against the U.S. dollar on September 11, exacerbated by a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S., the highest in Asia, leading to foreign investor withdrawals and a negative economic outlook [1][4] - Economists predict that if the U.S. maintains the 50% tariff, the Rupee could depreciate to 89 per dollar by early next year, while a resolution to the tariff dispute could stabilize it around 88 per dollar [1][3] Group 2 - The high tariffs are impacting multiple sectors in India, including textiles, apparel, and seafood, with some exporters lobbying the central bank to allow them to exchange profits at a rate of approximately 103 Rupees per dollar [4][6] - The Indian economy's growth rate could decline by 50 to 60 basis points if the tariffs persist, with the GDP growth rate for the last fiscal year slowing to 6.5% from 9.2% the previous year [6][7] - Despite the challenges, India is projected to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, but it must enhance its resilience against external shocks, as highlighted by the ongoing tensions with the U.S. [7][8] Group 3 - The Indian government aims for an average annual economic growth rate of around 7.8% over the next few decades to become the world's third-largest economy by 2047 [7][8] - To achieve these goals, India needs to diversify its trade relationships and reduce protectionist barriers, which currently account for about 40% of its trade barriers [8] - Reforming the internal market is essential for India to respond effectively to external pressures, such as the tariffs imposed by the U.S., and to attract private capital for growth [8]

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee has depreciated to a historic low against the US dollar, reaching 88.1712 Rupees per dollar, influenced by concerns over a 50% tariff imposed by the US, which is expected to impact India's economic growth and corporate earnings [1][4] - The depreciation of the Rupee is exacerbated by ongoing foreign selling of Indian equities, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia this year [1] - Citigroup estimates that the new tariffs on export-oriented sectors such as textiles, footwear, and jewelry could reduce India's annual growth rate by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The increase in US tariffs poses a new threat to India's already fragile economic recovery, with the depreciation of the Rupee heightening the risk of imported inflation [4] - Global funds have withdrawn over $13 billion from the Indian stock market this year amid weak corporate earnings, while the Reserve Bank of India’s three interest rate cuts have diminished support for the Rupee [4] - The upcoming data is expected to show a 6.7% growth in India's GDP for the second quarter, potentially driven by exporters rushing to ship goods following the suspension of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump [4]