1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - From January 5th to February 6th, the main contract of urea futures presented a game pattern of "high supply and off - season demand", with a fluctuation range of 1756 - 1830 yuan/ton. In the short term, affected by weak pre - holiday demand and abundant supply, the futures price may fluctuate. In the long run, the expectation of Indian tenders, the start of spring plowing fertilizer preparation, and the inventory depletion trend will provide support, and the price center is expected to gradually move up. Attention should be paid to the implementation of export orders and the recovery rhythm of agricultural demand [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract of urea showed a "first decline then rise" trend this month. It declined in early January due to increased supply, rebounded in mid - January with inventory depletion, and fell since February due to weakening pre - holiday demand. The capital sentiment was cautious. The spot premium pattern was stable, and the basis fluctuated slightly. The basis was significantly repaired compared with the average in January, indicating stronger support on the spot side [3] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Supply side**: The production remained at a high level, and the operating rate increased steadily. On February 4th, the daily output was 20.99 tons, rising to 21.40 tons on February 5th, a year - on - year increase of 1.57 tons (+7.9%). The average operating rate in January was 85.78%, 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. On February 4th, the operating rate reached 89.14%, a new high for the year. The supply pressure was difficult to ease in the short term [5][6] - **Demand side**: It was the end of pre - holiday stockpiling, and regional price differentiation occurred. The top - dressing of winter wheat in the north was gradually ending, the number of advance orders of enterprises decreased, and there was resistance to high - priced purchases. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises remained low, the demand for melamine recovered but the volume was small. Overall, downstream purchases were mainly for rigid needs, and new orders were scarce [6] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a low level. As of February 4th, the urea enterprise inventory was 91.85 tons, a decrease of 2.63 tons (-2.79%) from the previous week, with an 8 - week consecutive decline and a year - on - year decrease of 53.16 tons. The port inventory was 17.2 tons, remaining at a low level, and export shipments were mainly based on previous orders [6] - **Import and export**: The export resilience remained, and the expectation of Indian tenders increased. In 2025, the cumulative export was 489.35 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1678.3%. In December, the export was 27.83 tons, maintaining high - level prosperity. The market expected that India might announce a new round of import tenders in February (with a scale of about 1.5 million tons), and the international price was rising, so the export window was expected to open [6] 3.3 Associated Variety Linkage - **Coal and crude oil**: Coal - based urea accounted for more than 70%, and the price fluctuation of thermal coal directly affected the production cost. The average WTI crude oil price in January was 58.4 US dollars per barrel, and the rising energy cost provided bottom - line support for urea [7] - **Compound fertilizer**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was positively correlated with the urea purchase volume. The compound fertilizer production in January increased by 3.2% year - on - year, but short - term demand was difficult to expand due to the end of pre - holiday stockpiling [7] - **International urea**: The FOB price in Egypt rose from 452.51 US dollars per ton on January 8th to 477.51 US dollars per ton on January 29th, a rise of 5.5%. The high international price might drive domestic exports and spot sentiment [7] 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2026, the new production capacity was limited, and the elimination of old production capacity accelerated, with the annual supply growth rate likely to drop below 3%. From March to July was the peak season for domestic spring plowing fertilizer use, and the agricultural demand in the second quarter was expected to increase by 15% - 20% quarter - on - quarter, which would support the price center to rise. If the Indian tender in February was successfully implemented, the export volume was expected to rebound to over 500,000 tons. The traditional maintenance season of gas - based urea enterprises (February - March) might lead to a short - term supply contraction, and coal price fluctuations needed continuous attention. In the short term, the urea futures were suppressed by high supply and weak pre - holiday demand, and the futures price might fluctuate in a range. In the medium and long term, the results of Indian tenders, the progress of spring plowing fertilizer preparation, and the inventory depletion speed needed to be tracked [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Urea**: The urea futures price showed a firm and volatile trend on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1788 yuan/ton, a 0.68% increase. The spot market mostly rose, with prices in Shandong and Henan reaching 1790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively. The supply level of urea is continuously recovering, with the daily output reaching 21.56 tons, a0.16 - ton increase. Demand is still differentiated. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is no sign of a trend - like upward movement due to policies and other factors [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures price showed a weak and volatile trend on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1181 yuan/ton, a 1.01% decrease. The spot price and trader quotes remained stable. The industry load increased as some maintenance enterprises resumed production, with the operating rate reaching 86%, a 2.5 - percentage - point increase. Demand was weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range, with a slightly weak intraday sentiment [1]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price showed a strong and volatile trend on Monday, with the closing price of the main 05 contract at 1078 yuan/ton, a 0.56% increase. The spot price was strong. The supply level has been stable since the weekend, with the daily melting volume at 14.98 tons. The demand sentiment declined significantly, and the spot sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream areas dropped to the 40% - 70% range. The futures price is expected to continue the wide - range volatile trend at a high level, with the possibility of increased volatility due to macro - policies and other factors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On February 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 10,860, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 325 valid forecasts. The daily output of the urea industry was 21.56 tons, a 0.16 - ton increase from the previous working day and 1.64 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 91.56%, 2.60 percentage points higher than 88.96% in the same period last year. The spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions in China showed an upward trend [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On February 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 4,076, an increase of 549 from the previous trading day, with 883 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided. The operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86%, up from 83.5% on the previous working day. The average price of the float glass market was 1,107 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase from the previous day, and the daily output was 14.98 tons, unchanged [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report presented multiple charts, including the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, as well as the price spread between different contracts, the spot price trend, and the price spread between different varieties. All chart data were sourced from iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [9][11][13][17][19][21] Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for the research of urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, engaged in the research of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. They have rich experience and many honors [24]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on August 19, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply of urea in China is loose, with the daily average output still at a high level. Although some devices are under maintenance, the daily output is around 190,000 tons, the highest in the same period. The demand side shows a downward trend, with low enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China, and few grass - roots orders. However, the new Indian tender of 2 million tons has a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment. In the short term, the domestic demand is limited, but the futures market has risen due to news stimulation. It is expected that the domestic urea price will remain firm [5]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures increased in volume and price in the afternoon, closing at 1817 (+62/+3.53%) [3] - Spot Market: The ex - factory price was weakly stable, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1630 - 1640 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1620 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase compared with 76.31% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was average, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas were stable, but the transaction weakened. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes rebounded slightly, the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate increased slightly, but the raw material inventory was sufficient, the finished product inventory was high, and the new order transaction was weak. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, the ex - factory quotes were stable, and the new order transaction was weak. In the areas around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled down [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily output decreased to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period [5] - Demand: A new round of Indian tender was announced, with India tendering 2 million tons again, closing on September 2 and with a shipping date at the end of October. The domestic and foreign price difference was large, which had a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment. The enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, the grass - roots had no intention to stock up, and the compound fertilizer factories' operating rate increased slightly, but the demand for raw materials was low. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 68,900 tons to around 957,400 tons, at a high level [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Go long on dips [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [9]