1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the US-Iran conflict, the chemical sector has risen strongly. The urea futures price has increased, and the spot price has also risen. Although the weekly urea production load has slightly decreased, the overall market supply is still at a relatively high level. With the approaching of the spring plowing season, the agricultural fertilizer demand continues to increase, the compound fertilizer production capacity operation rate has increased, and the raw material replenishment has increased the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low year-on-year, and the inventory reduction is smooth. Affected by the US-Iran incident, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Changes - The urea futures price opened higher and then fell back, but the price center continued to move up. On March 13, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,889 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton or 3.22% from the previous week. The highest price during the period was 1,954 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1,831 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,852 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton or 1.7% from the previous week [2][5]. - The main urea basis weakened compared with the previous week. On March 13, the main basis in the Henan market was -37 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operation range was (-63) - (-13) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly. On March 13, the 5 - 9 spread was -23 yuan/ton, and the weekly operation range was (-28) - (-13) yuan/ton [2][9]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The urea production load rate was 93.23%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the production load rate of gas - based enterprises was 83.5%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average urea output was 219,700 tons. Some installations in regions such as Henan and Shandong were under maintenance or short - stopped, and the production load decreased slightly. Although some installations will be adjusted next week, the overall market supply level is still relatively high [2][12]. Cost - The price of anthracite coal fluctuated slightly. As of March 12, the含税 price of anthracite washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton; the含税 price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 780 - 840 yuan/ton, both of which were flat compared with the closing price of the previous week [2][15]. Demand - Agricultural demand: As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually released. The average pre - collection of major urea production enterprises is 6.5 days, and the weekly production and sales rate of urea enterprises is 101.3% [18]. - Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer enterprise production capacity operation rate was 45.56%, an increase of 8.54 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 748,900 tons, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points from the previous week. The melamine enterprise production load rate was 56.96%, an increase of 7.56 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 31,980 tons. It is expected that the production load rate of the melamine industry will gradually increase to over 60% next week. The demand support in the panel market has weakened [22][25][26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 721,000 tons, a decrease of 149,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 439,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 269,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,055, totaling 161,100 tons, an increase of 2,369 receipts or 47,380 tons compared with the same period last year [2][29]. Main Operating Logic - Although the weekly production load has slightly decreased, the overall market supply level is still relatively high. The agricultural fertilizer procurement in various regions, the increase in the compound fertilizer production capacity operation rate, and the increase in raw material replenishment support the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low year - on - year, and the inventory reduction is smooth. Affected by the US - Iran incident, the price fluctuates strongly [2]. Key Points to Watch - The operation of compound fertilizer production, the reduction and maintenance of urea installations, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with the phosphate chemical sector surging due to its essential demand characteristics, attracting attention from retail investors [1][3] - A joint implementation plan by eight government departments has classified phosphate rock as a strategic non-metallic mineral, providing policy support across the entire supply chain, which includes mining, processing, and environmental protection [1][3] - The demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to peak during the spring farming season, with prices for phosphate rock stabilizing at 1,060 yuan per ton, leading to increased profits for companies in the sector [3][4] Group 2 - Three small-cap phosphate chemical companies, with stock prices around 3 yuan, have attracted significant investment from foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, indicating strong long-term confidence in these firms [4][5] - These companies possess integrated mining and power generation advantages, ensuring stable profitability and aligning well with current policy and demand trends [4][5] - The overall price-to-earnings ratio of the phosphate chemical sector is currently below the 30th percentile of the past five years, indicating that these small-cap stocks are undervalued and present a low-risk, high-upside investment opportunity [5][6] Group 3 - The low stock price of around 3 yuan makes these companies accessible for retail investors, allowing for gradual investment without requiring large capital [6] - The combination of foreign investment, long-term price stability, and supportive policies creates a favorable environment for valuation recovery in the phosphate chemical sector [6] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong fundamentals, such as resource availability and consistent orders, while maintaining a long-term investment perspective to benefit from the sector's growth [6]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.92%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.99% as of February 24 [2] - The Grain ETF from GF Securities (159587) increased by 2.84%, with several component stocks such as Andong Biological (603077.SH) and Chuanfa Longmang (002312.SZ) hitting the daily limit [2] - The current winter wheat is entering the greening phase, which is crucial for spring management, with the national supply and marketing cooperative system having procured 20 million tons of fertilizers to ensure timely supply [2] Group 2 - By the end of 2025, genetically modified corn planting is expected to expand to 13 provinces, with an annual planting area of 3 to 5 million acres, accounting for 10% to 15% of the national corn area [3] - The promotion of traits such as pest resistance and herbicide tolerance will increase the demand for certain herbicides and insecticides [3] - The agricultural sector is characterized by domestic supply shortages and historically low asset prices, making it an attractive investment opportunity due to its unique attributes and the need to protect farmers' income [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, urea showed an oscillating upward trend and rose significantly with increased positions due to market news rumors. It is advisable to hold no positions during the holiday as there may be news disturbances in the external market during the Spring Festival [1]. - After the holiday, the urea market will enter the agricultural demand peak season, with a tight supply - demand balance and a generally strong market, but the increase may be limited by supply - guarantee and price - stabilization measures during the spring plowing period. Also, the bullish sentiment of spring plowing fertilizer storage has been partially digested before the holiday, so be cautious about post - holiday market judgment [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, urea had an oscillating upward trend and rose with increased positions due to market news. During the holiday, order collection was completed smoothly with strong futures sentiment. The upstream factory production is stable during the holiday, with a daily output of 210,000 tons, which is relatively high year - on - year and month - on - month. Although the high output has been factored into the price, the inventory is relatively low at the beginning of the year. During the holiday, the downstream will stop production and transportation will be hindered, so inventory is likely to accumulate. After the holiday, it will be the agricultural demand peak season, but the price increase may be limited [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2605 contract opened at 1,797 yuan/ton, rose with oscillations, and closed at 1,843 yuan/ton, up 2.79%. The trading volume was 260,406 lots, an increase of 36,313 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 30,843 lots and short positions increased by 29,515 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Pre - orders are basically completed. After the futures price rose, the spot price increased steadily. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,740 - 1,780 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on the Henan region, the basis of the May contract was - 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7]. - **Supply Data**: On February 12, 2026, the national daily urea output was 215,600 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.41% [8]. - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of February 11, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 834,700 tons, a decrease of 83,800 tons or 9.12% compared to the previous week. The pre - order days were 11.12 days, an increase of 2.3 days or 26.08% compared to the previous period [12]. - **Downstream Data**: From February 6 to February 13, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points compared to the previous week [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - From January 5th to February 6th, the main contract of urea futures presented a game pattern of "high supply and off - season demand", with a fluctuation range of 1756 - 1830 yuan/ton. In the short term, affected by weak pre - holiday demand and abundant supply, the futures price may fluctuate. In the long run, the expectation of Indian tenders, the start of spring plowing fertilizer preparation, and the inventory depletion trend will provide support, and the price center is expected to gradually move up. Attention should be paid to the implementation of export orders and the recovery rhythm of agricultural demand [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract of urea showed a "first decline then rise" trend this month. It declined in early January due to increased supply, rebounded in mid - January with inventory depletion, and fell since February due to weakening pre - holiday demand. The capital sentiment was cautious. The spot premium pattern was stable, and the basis fluctuated slightly. The basis was significantly repaired compared with the average in January, indicating stronger support on the spot side [3] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Supply side**: The production remained at a high level, and the operating rate increased steadily. On February 4th, the daily output was 20.99 tons, rising to 21.40 tons on February 5th, a year - on - year increase of 1.57 tons (+7.9%). The average operating rate in January was 85.78%, 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. On February 4th, the operating rate reached 89.14%, a new high for the year. The supply pressure was difficult to ease in the short term [5][6] - **Demand side**: It was the end of pre - holiday stockpiling, and regional price differentiation occurred. The top - dressing of winter wheat in the north was gradually ending, the number of advance orders of enterprises decreased, and there was resistance to high - priced purchases. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises remained low, the demand for melamine recovered but the volume was small. Overall, downstream purchases were mainly for rigid needs, and new orders were scarce [6] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a low level. As of February 4th, the urea enterprise inventory was 91.85 tons, a decrease of 2.63 tons (-2.79%) from the previous week, with an 8 - week consecutive decline and a year - on - year decrease of 53.16 tons. The port inventory was 17.2 tons, remaining at a low level, and export shipments were mainly based on previous orders [6] - **Import and export**: The export resilience remained, and the expectation of Indian tenders increased. In 2025, the cumulative export was 489.35 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1678.3%. In December, the export was 27.83 tons, maintaining high - level prosperity. The market expected that India might announce a new round of import tenders in February (with a scale of about 1.5 million tons), and the international price was rising, so the export window was expected to open [6] 3.3 Associated Variety Linkage - **Coal and crude oil**: Coal - based urea accounted for more than 70%, and the price fluctuation of thermal coal directly affected the production cost. The average WTI crude oil price in January was 58.4 US dollars per barrel, and the rising energy cost provided bottom - line support for urea [7] - **Compound fertilizer**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was positively correlated with the urea purchase volume. The compound fertilizer production in January increased by 3.2% year - on - year, but short - term demand was difficult to expand due to the end of pre - holiday stockpiling [7] - **International urea**: The FOB price in Egypt rose from 452.51 US dollars per ton on January 8th to 477.51 US dollars per ton on January 29th, a rise of 5.5%. The high international price might drive domestic exports and spot sentiment [7] 3.4 Market Outlook - In 2026, the new production capacity was limited, and the elimination of old production capacity accelerated, with the annual supply growth rate likely to drop below 3%. From March to July was the peak season for domestic spring plowing fertilizer use, and the agricultural demand in the second quarter was expected to increase by 15% - 20% quarter - on - quarter, which would support the price center to rise. If the Indian tender in February was successfully implemented, the export volume was expected to rebound to over 500,000 tons. The traditional maintenance season of gas - based urea enterprises (February - March) might lead to a short - term supply contraction, and coal price fluctuations needed continuous attention. In the short term, the urea futures were suppressed by high supply and weak pre - holiday demand, and the futures price might fluctuate in a range. In the medium and long term, the results of Indian tenders, the progress of spring plowing fertilizer preparation, and the inventory depletion speed needed to be tracked [9]