原木周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 行情走势：到货下降库存低位，现货价格稳中偏强 ◼ 短期：港口到货下降，库存低位，现货价格稳中偏强； ◼ 中期：二月供给回升，需求进入春节淡季，库存即将进入累库阶段；原木供给参考船期节奏， 预计维持正常水平，需求端地产新开工偏弱，持续拖累原木需求。 资料来源 ： 千里目资讯 、 国泰君安期货研究所 资料来源：千里目资讯、国泰君安期货研究所 730 740 750 760 770 780 790 800 810 820 元/方 DCE：原木：03合约：收盘价（日） DCE：原木：05合约：收盘价（日） DCE：原木：07合约：收盘价（日） -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 元/方 03-05 03-07 05-07 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 现货价格走势 | 价格指标 | 树种规格 | 地 区 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a chemical research report on log market, specifically the Log Daily Report dated February 11, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis - Log prices (daily) and wood square prices (daily) for different types of logs and wood squares at various ports are presented, with all prices showing 0.00% day - on - day and week - on - week changes [2] - Futures volume and price data for LG2603, LG2605, and LG2607 contracts are provided, including closing prices, changes, and volume/position changes [2] Group 3: Market Review - On February 10, the log spot market was stable. Prices of different grades of radiata pine logs in Rizhao remained unchanged [4] - The closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 777 yuan/cubic meter, up 5.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous trading day [5] Group 4: Important Information - In January 2026, 74 coniferous log ships arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a month - on - month decrease of 14.94%. The total arrival volume was about 166.81 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.80%. Among them, 45 ships were from New Zealand, with an arrival volume of about 147.45 million cubic meters, accounting for 88% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.69% [7] - From February 2 to February 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 5.15 million cubic meters, a 16.53% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 3.28 million cubic meters, a 15.68% decrease, and that at Jiangsu ports was 1.29 million cubic meters, an 18.87% decrease [7] Group 5: Logic Analysis - Supply pressure is increasing marginally; demand is dragged down by the Spring Festival off - season, with the average daily outbound volume decreasing by 16.53% month - on - month. The foreign market price in February increased by 3 - 5 US dollars, raising the procurement cost. The increase in supply and weak demand will suppress prices in the short term, but the rising cost forms a bottom support. Also, the low inventory buffers the supply shock. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the post - festival demand resumption rhythm needs to be monitored [7] Group 6: Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7] - For arbitrage, take profit on the 3 - 5 reverse spread [8] - For options, wait and see [9] Group 7: Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing log and wood square prices, import CFR prices, port log inventory, and other related data [11][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, port arrivals are decreasing, and some traders are closing their warehouses, causing the spot price to be stable with a slight upward trend [3] - In the medium - term, supply will increase in February, demand will enter the Spring Festival off - season, and inventory is about to enter the accumulation stage. Log supply is expected to maintain a normal level according to the shipping schedule, while the weak new construction in the real estate sector on the demand side continues to drag down log demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - Short - term: Port arrivals decline, some traders close warehouses, and spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend [3] - Medium - term: Supply increases in February, demand enters the Spring Festival off - season, inventory accumulates. Log supply follows the shipping schedule, and real - estate new construction weakness drags down demand [3] 3.2 Spot Price Trends - For different tree species, specifications, and regions, most prices remained stable from 2026/1/16 to 2026/2/6. Only the 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 1.4% and the 5.9 - meter 20+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 1.4% compared to the previous week [7] 3.3 Supply: New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data - Multiple log shipments from various origins are expected to arrive at Chinese and South Korean ports between February 7 and February 21, 2026, with different carrying capacities [19] 3.4 Demand and Inventory: Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Average Shipment - Port inventory: In some ports like Lanshan Port, Xinminzhou, and Jiangdu Port, inventory increased compared to the previous week, while in Taicang Port, it decreased. For example, the total inventory in Lanshan Port increased by 2.7%, and in Xinminzhou, the total inventory increased by 20.6% [23] - Daily average shipment: The total shipment in some ports like Lanshan Port and Taicang Port increased compared to the previous week, while in Jiangdu Port, it decreased. For example, the total shipment in Lanshan Port increased by 8.0%, and in Jiangdu Port, it decreased by 60.0% [23] 3.5 Other Direct Price - Affecting Factors - Freight: The dry bulk BDI decreased by 10.5% compared to the previous week, the handy - sized BHSI increased by 3.2%, the crude oil BDTI decreased by 0.6%, and the SCFI composite index decreased by 3.8% [27] - Exchange rate: The USD/CNY decreased by 0.5%, and the USD/NZD decreased by 1.5% [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - As of January 16, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The market continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the marginal changes in the fundamentals were relatively small [18] Summary by Directory Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9-meter 30+ radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week, while the Jiangsu market quoted 760 yuan/cubic meter, a 30 yuan/cubic meter increase from the previous week. The price difference between the two regions was -20 yuan/cubic meter. The European spruce and fir were still in short supply in the Jiangsu market [4] Supply - As of January 11, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in January, all of which were headed to mainland China. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in January and 0 in February, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.34 million cubic meters in January [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 16, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 20,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and at Taicang Port was 13,800 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.7493 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [6][12] Market Trends - As of January 16, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The monthly spread (negative value) narrowed slightly this week. The 03-05 monthly spread was -11.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 03-07 monthly spread was -22.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 05-07 monthly spread was -11 yuan/cubic meter [18] Other - As of the week of January 17, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 1,532.00 points, a decrease of 152 points (-9.24%) from the previous week. Its related sub-index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was recorded at 589 points, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was recorded at 1,647.39 points [6][55] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was recorded at 6.966, a 0.54% decrease from the previous week, while the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.54% to 1.741 [6][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot prices of mainstream delivery products remained stable this week, and the fundamentals changed little. The futures market continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the positive spread month - to - month difference weakened further [4][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of January 3, there was 1 ship departing from New Zealand in January, all going to the Chinese mainland, with an expected arrival of about 1080000 cubic meters in January and 0 in February [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 9, the average daily shipment of Lanshan Port was 20300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1400 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 13800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 400 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1242000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 29000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 307000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 36500 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 122200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 5200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 78100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 32900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1749300 cubic meters, a decrease of 93200 cubic meters from the previous week [6][14]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of January 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 774.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.1% increase from last week. The futures market continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. The positive spread month - to - month difference weakened further. The 03 - 05 month - to - month difference was - 12.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 03 - 07 month - to - month difference was - 23.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 month - to - month difference was - 11 yuan per cubic meter [20]. 3.4 Other - As of the week of January 10, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1718.00 points, a decrease of 164 points (- 8.71%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was 613 points, a decrease of 10.51% from last week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1647.39 points, a decrease of 0.5% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index rebounded slightly after the New Year's Day. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.985, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.1% to 1.738 [57].

1. Market Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with some prices remaining flat and others increasing; the total inventory of the four major ports has decreased; the price of the main contract has declined, and the negative value of the positive spread monthly difference has expanded [4][12][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of August 10, there were 11 ships departing from New Zealand in August, 9 of which were bound for mainland China, and 2 were for unloading in Taiwan, China and South Korea; it is expected that about 11 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival of 1.47 million cubic meters in August [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 8, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 18,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 11,900 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 500 cubic meters); the total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1291 million cubic meters, a decrease of 74,700 cubic meters from the previous week [6][12] 3.3 Market Trends - As of August 15, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 815 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week; the negative value of the positive spread monthly difference has expanded, with the 09 - 11 monthly difference being - 11 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly difference being - 15 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly difference being - 4 yuan per cubic meter [18] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of different tree species and specifications in different regions show different trends, with some remaining flat and some increasing [22][24] - **Regional Spread**: The price differences of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions vary [25][35] - **Species and Specification Spread**: The price differences between different tree species and specifications in Shandong region are presented [42][50] 3.5 Other - As of the week of August 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2044 points, a decrease of 7 points (- 0.3%) from the previous week; its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 698 points, an increase of 2.2% from the previous week; the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous week; the US dollar index weakened again, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.182, basically the same as the previous week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased slightly by 0.4% to 1.687 [6][56][57]