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国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 11:42
1. Market Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with some prices remaining flat and others increasing; the total inventory of the four major ports has decreased; the price of the main contract has declined, and the negative value of the positive spread monthly difference has expanded [4][12][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of August 10, there were 11 ships departing from New Zealand in August, 9 of which were bound for mainland China, and 2 were for unloading in Taiwan, China and South Korea; it is expected that about 11 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival of 1.47 million cubic meters in August [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 8, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 18,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 11,900 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 500 cubic meters); the total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1291 million cubic meters, a decrease of 74,700 cubic meters from the previous week [6][12] 3.3 Market Trends - As of August 15, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 815 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week; the negative value of the positive spread monthly difference has expanded, with the 09 - 11 monthly difference being - 11 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly difference being - 15 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly difference being - 4 yuan per cubic meter [18] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of different tree species and specifications in different regions show different trends, with some remaining flat and some increasing [22][24] - **Regional Spread**: The price differences of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions vary [25][35] - **Species and Specification Spread**: The price differences between different tree species and specifications in Shandong region are presented [42][50] 3.5 Other - As of the week of August 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2044 points, a decrease of 7 points (- 0.3%) from the previous week; its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 698 points, an increase of 2.2% from the previous week; the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1460.19 points, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous week; the US dollar index weakened again, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.182, basically the same as the previous week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased slightly by 0.4% to 1.687 [6][56][57]