原木周报： 冬储备货，需求表现分化 20260107 弘业金融研究院 数据来源：钢联、弘业金融研究院 姜周曦琳 从业资格号：F03114700 投资咨询号：Z0022394 原木产业数据 ➢ 期现货： • 现货端，日照港3.9米中A辐射松原木740元/方，较上期持稳；本周太仓港4米中A辐射松原木730元/方，较上期上涨。整体来看，原木现货价 格偏弱运行，江苏市场普涨。 • 期货端，截至1月7日收盘，原木主力2603报收782元/方，震荡偏强。2026年1月上旬，进口针叶原木散货船海运费（新西兰→中国）25美元 /JAS方，较2025年12月下旬下跌1美元/JAS方，环比下跌3.85%。 ➢ 供应： • 2025年12月，新西兰原木离港船只约55条，月环比增加6条，总发货量约204万方，较11月189.2万方增加8%。其中，42条船发往中国，发货量 约152.1万方，占比75%，较11月145.2万方增加5%。近期发中国船数仍有增幅，1月中旬到港集中，海外供应减量尚未体现。 • 本周13港原木预计到港量：2025/12/29-2026/1/4，中国13港新西兰针叶原木预计到船15条，较上周增加6条，周环比增加6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The log spot price is running weakly, and the prices of multiple specifications of logs in major ports have generally been lowered by 10 - 30 yuan/cubic meter. The futures price has also declined, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium and long term. The supply side has high inventory and high arrival volume, which puts pressure on prices, but the arrival volume has decreased recently, and the supply - side pressure has been improved. The demand side is weak, and the downstream actual demand is less than expected, and the real estate industry has not shown substantial benefits [2][3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - On the spot side, the prices of medium - A radiata pine logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port have declined compared with the previous period. The freight rate of imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand to China) in late November 2025 was flat compared with the beginning of November. As of November 24, the FOB price range of New Zealand 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine was 112 - 119 US dollars/JAS cubic meter. On the futures side, as of November 25, the log main contract 2601 closed at 764.5 yuan/cubic meter and continued to decline [2] 2. Log Industry Data - Supply - From November 15 - 21, 2025, the total departure and shipment of logs from New Zealand ports were 14 ships with 510,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 7 ships and 220,000 cubic meters. Among them, 9 ships with 320,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a week - on - week increase of 3 ships and 80,000 cubic meters. The arrival volume has decreased since this week, and the seasonal decline in New Zealand's shipments has occurred in the long term. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China is 6 ships, a week - on - week decrease of 7 ships (54%); the total arrival volume is about 217,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 201,000 cubic meters (48%). In October 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04% [2] 3. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 21, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 20,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.51 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 80,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, the same as last week. The high arrival volume has continuously pressured the port log inventory and spot prices. Although the inventory is high, the decrease in arrival volume in mid - November has created initial conditions for inventory reduction. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and high inventory suppresses prices [3] 4. Log Industry Data - Demand - From November 17 - 23, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 1.83% compared with last week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 35,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.18% compared with last week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 23,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.28% compared with last week. The continuous high arrival pressure and the suppression of downstream demand by seasonal factors have increased the sales pressure of traders, and they have generally reduced prices for promotion [3] 5. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's imported radiata pine shows obvious resource concentration, and the proportion from New Zealand has further increased. The anti - involution policy has had a certain indirect boost. The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, and the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days in July has been extended. The EU will impose higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood, and Mexico has made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Chinese cardboard. The General Administration of Customs has decided to abolish the notice on suspending the import of US logs. The freight cost in Russia has increased by up to 50%, and the wood price has increased by 11% - 14% [4] 6. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - Since its listing for one year, the trading and holding volume of log futures and options has steadily increased. The total trading volume of the two is about 7.87 million lots, with a trading amount of about 464 billion yuan, an average daily trading volume of about 32,400 lots, and an average daily holding volume of about 53,400 lots. The LG2507 and LG2509 contracts have completed a total of 1,412 lots of delivery, equivalent to about 127,100 cubic meters of log spot, with a total cargo value of about 104 million yuan [5] 7. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%. As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The real estate data shows a downward trend, and the log demand side is still weak [5] 8. Strategy and Suggestions - The 2509 contract declined continuously in the off - season of the second quarter and rose significantly from July to August. The 2511 contract rose first and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The 2601 contract first oscillated strongly and then declined rapidly and oscillated at a low level. The downstream actual demand is less than expected, and there is no substantial benefit from tariffs and real estate. The near - month contract maintains a low level after entering the delivery month, and the far - month contract may enter the delivery with a discount structure again. The high arrival pressure of logs has been realized, and the supply - side pressure of the current fundamentals has been improved [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log spot price is running weakly, mainly due to a large short - term arrival volume, a decline in demand, and radiation pine inventory accumulation. The futures price continues to oscillate weakly. The supply side pressure has improved, but the downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news in tariffs and real estate. In the short term, logs will continue to oscillate weakly [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that at Taicang Port is 760 yuan/cubic meter, both down from the previous period. In October 2025, the FOB price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [2] - Futures: As of the close on November 18, the main log contract 2601 closed at 785 yuan/cubic meter, continuing its weak oscillation [2] 2. Supply - New Zealand port shipments: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters [2] - Expected arrival volume at 13 ports: From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 ships or 30% week - on - week; the total arrival volume is about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters or 48% week - on - week [2] - Actual arrival volume at 13 ports last week: From November 10 - 16, 2025, 10 ships of New Zealand logs arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 6 ships or 38% week - on - week; the total arrival volume was about 315,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 214,000 cubic meters or 40% week - on - week [2] - Import volume: In October 2025, China imported 4.19 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber; from January to October, the import volume was 46.366 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [2] 3. Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters [3] - High arrival volume continues to put pressure on port log inventory and spot prices. After the arrival volume decreases in mid - November, inventory accumulation may ease after 1 - 2 weeks [3] 4. Demand - Domestic port log outbound volume: From November 7 - 14, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters; among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,700 cubic meters, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,400 cubic meters [3] - The national log outbound volume rebounded, especially in Shandong. The core problem is that the port arrival pressure is large, while downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors, leading to increased sales pressure on traders [3] 5. Recent News and Outlook Tariffs and Imports/Exports - China's radiata pine imports are concentrated in New Zealand, increasing the risk of relying on a single source. The anti - involution policy has an indirect impact on the log market. The May Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement is beneficial for wood product exports, but the terminal market is currently sluggish [4] - The EU will impose higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood from December 7, 2025. Mexico has made a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Chinese cardboard. Since November 10, 2025, the suspension of US log imports has been lifted, but the arrival volume will be limited in the short term [4] - Russian freight costs have increased by up to 50%, and wood prices have risen by 11% - 14%. China's demand market is currently weak [4] Trading and Delivery - Since its listing one year ago, the trading and holding volume of log futures and options has increased steadily. A total of 8 futures contracts and 164 option contracts have been listed, with a combined trading volume of about 7.87 million lots, a trading value of about 464 billion yuan, an average daily trading volume of about 32,400 lots, and an average daily holding volume of about 53,400 lots [5] - The LG2507 and LG2509 contracts have expired, with a total delivery of 1,412 lots, equivalent to about 127,100 cubic meters of log spot, with a total value of about 104 million yuan [5] Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%; from January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1,044.801 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [5] - As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The real estate data shows a downward trend, and the log demand side remains weak [5] 6. Strategies and Suggestions - The 2509 contract weakened in the second - quarter off - season and rose significantly from July to August, mainly driven by shortages of some specifications, rising FOB prices, and pre - delivery stocking demand. After entering the delivery month, the near - and far - month contracts showed different trends [6] - In September, the 2511 contract price rose and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand was average, and the futures price回调 after the holiday in October, reflecting market pessimism about downstream demand [6] - The previous main contract 2601 continued to oscillate strongly when the 2511 contract declined. Currently, the downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news. The log market will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The log spot price is running weakly, mainly due to a large short - term arrival volume, a decline in demand, and inventory accumulation of radiata pine. The futures price is also in a weak state, and the log market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium and long term [4]. - The supply of logs from New Zealand has increased, and the recent arrival volume is large. Although the expected arrival volume in some periods has decreased, the overall import volume in October continued to decline and is at a low level over the years [4]. - The downstream demand for logs is weak. The daily average outbound volume of logs in ports has decreased, and the contradiction between high arrival pressure and weak downstream demand is prominent [5]. - There are many uncertainties in tariff and trade policies, which may affect the import and export of logs and the export of wood products. The lifting of the suspension of importing US logs may have limited short - term impact [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, both lower than the previous period. In October 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [4]. - Futures: As of November 12, the log main contract 2601 closed at 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, continuing the weak oscillation [4]. Log Industry Data - Supply - In October 2025, about 54 vessels departed from New Zealand with logs, a monthly increase of 8 vessels, and the total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [4]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, 12 vessels carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 4 fewer than last week, a 25% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume is about 395,000 cubic meters, 136,000 cubic meters less than last week, a 26% week - on - week decrease [4]. - From November 3 - 9, 2025, 16 vessels carrying New Zealand logs actually arrived at 13 Chinese ports, 1 more than last week, a 7% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume was about 531,000 cubic meters, 37,000 cubic meters more than last week, a 7% week - on - week increase [4]. - In October 2025, China imported 4.19 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to October, the import volume was 46.366 million cubic meters, a 12.4% year - on - year decrease [4]. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 7, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters from last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters from last week; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week [5]. - The high arrival volume continues to put pressure on port log inventory and spot prices. The inventory accumulation is expected to last until mid - November and may ease after 1 - 2 weeks [5]. Log Industry Data - Demand - From October 27 to November 2, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a 9.89% decrease from last week; that at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, a 4.29% increase from last week [5]. - The national log outbound volume continues to decline. There is a risk of some log ships being stranded at Taicang Port and may be diverted to other ports such as Shandong [5]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's radiata pine imports are concentrated in New Zealand, and the risk of over - dependence on a single source is increasing [6]. - The "anti - involution" policy has an indirect impact on the log futures market. The adjustment of the construction industry structure is beneficial to the log futures market sentiment [6]. - The Geneva Joint Statement between China and the US in May is beneficial to wood product exports, but the current terminal market is sluggish [6]. - In July, the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days was extended again, and the uncertainty of China's wood product export costs remains [6]. - In October, there were news of various tariff changes, which may affect global trade directions [6]. - The EU and Mexico have taken anti - dumping measures against Chinese wood products [6]. - China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs since November 10, 2025, but the short - term arrival volume will be limited [6]. - The freight cost of Russian logs has increased, and the price of Russian logs has risen by 11% - 14% [6]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - The first - batch delivery of the 07 contract in various regions was successful, and the 5.9 - meter medium A specification is considered a cost - effective delivery product [7]. - The 09 contract had its first delivery in multiple places, ensuring the stable operation of the market [7]. - Attention should be paid to the delivery of domestic cryptomeria in Chongqing for the 11 contract this week [7]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a 23.84% month - on - month increase and an 8.02% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1.044801 trillion yuan, a 3.75% year - on - year decrease [7]. - As of November 4, the capital in - place rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, with a month - on - month increase. The capital in - place situation of real estate projects has improved, but the log demand side is still weak [7]. Log Industry Data - Strategies and Suggestions - The 2509 contract was weak in the off - season of the second quarter and rose from July to August. After entering the delivery month, the near - and far - month contracts showed different trends [8]. - The 2511 contract rose in September and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The demand in the traditional peak season this year was average, and the futures price quickly corrected after the holiday in October [8]. - The 2601 contract was relatively strong when the 2511 contract declined. Recently, it began to decline rapidly and then oscillated at a low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the log price is under pressure [8].

Report Title and Details - Report title: Log Weekly Report: Weak Demand, Price Under Pressure [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [1] - Research institution: Hongye Financial Research Institute [1] - Analyst: Jiang Zhou Xilin [1] - Qualification number: F03114700 [1] - Investment consulting number: Z0022394 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The log market is currently facing the pressure of high arrivals and weak demand, with spot prices continuing to be under pressure and expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. If the November foreign market price is slightly adjusted upwards as expected, it may provide some cost support for spot prices [8] Summary by Directory Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter Medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained at 760 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period. The price of 4 - meter Medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port decreased. In October 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter Medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month. Overall, the spot price of logs is running weakly, and the price - cut specifications are mainly knot - free timber, Medium A, Small A, and pulpwood [3] - Futures: As of the close on November 6, the main log contract 2601 closed at 779 yuan/cubic meter, showing a weak oscillation after a decline [3] Log Industry Data - Supply - In October 2025, about 54 vessels departed from New Zealand with logs, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month, and the total shipment volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from 1.766 million cubic meters in September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from 1.472 million cubic meters in September. The recent arrival volume is relatively large, at a high level in the same period over the years [3] - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, 17 vessels carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 2 compared to the previous week, a 13% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume is about 571,000 cubic meters, an increase of 77,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 16% week - on - week increase [3] - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, 15 vessels carrying New Zealand logs actually arrived at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 compared to the previous week, a 25% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume was about 494,000 cubic meters, an increase of 46,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 10% week - on - week increase [3] - In September 2025, China imported 4.669 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber; from January to August, the import volume of logs and sawn timber was 42.176 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Overall, the import volume in September continued to decline, significantly reduced compared to 2024, and at a low level over the years [3] Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 6, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.36 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as the previous week [4] - Overall, supported by the peak downstream demand season, the inventory is weakly stable. Due to the overall low previous arrival volume, the national coniferous log inventory is in a destocking state. The inventory of radiata pine, the main inventory tree species in China, continues to be destocked, and the North American timber inventory remains at a low level [4] Log Industry Data - Demand - From October 27 to November 2, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.48% compared to the previous week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 9.89% compared to the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, an increase of 4.29% compared to the previous week [4] - The national log outbound volume continues the downward trend. According to MULIAN news, some log vessels at Taicang Port are at risk of being stranded at the port and may be diverted to other ports such as Shandong. The core contradiction is that the port arrival pressure continues to be relatively large, while the downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors, resulting in increased sales pressure on traders, who generally offer price promotions [4] Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's radiata pine imports show an obvious characteristic of resource concentration, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing. Domestic demand is accelerating towards high - cost - performance timber species. However, the risk of over - reliance on a single source continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the impact of international price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions on domestic processing enterprises [5] - The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost during the off - season this year. Log downstream products and black futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between log downstream construction timber and coke reaches 0.9. To a certain extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry is beneficial to boosting the sentiment of the log futures market. The previous indirect boost and decline of the anti - involution policy have been reflected in the market [5] - The May China - US Geneva Joint Statement will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for glued laminated timber and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby driving the accelerated destocking of logs. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback, and it is expected that the log market will fluctuate at a low level in the medium and long term [5] - In July, the suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariff and counter - tariff for 90 days in the China - US economic and trade talks was extended again. There is still uncertainty about the export cost of Chinese wood products [5] - In October, there were various tariff change news again. The US - EU trade agreement included timber in the scope of a 15% tariff ceiling, marking a structural reduction in the US - EU timber trade barriers. The new tariff imposed by the United States on timber took effect on Tuesday (October 14). The new tariff imposes an ad - valorem tariff of 10% on the import of softwood timber and lumber and 25% on some upholstered wood products, and the tax rate will increase again next year. This news mainly affects Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico on the one hand and may also have an impact on the global trade direction on the other hand [5] - The European Commission announced the imposition of higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, which will take effect on December 7, 2025. The Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an announcement making a positive preliminary anti - dumping determination on cardboard originating from China [5] Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - The first - batch delivery of the 07 contract progressed smoothly in various regions. The market believes that the cost - effective delivery product is the 5.9 Medium A specification, which can have a premium of 50 yuan/cubic meter compared to the benchmark product for delivery. Multiple regions attempted the first delivery of the 09 contract, providing strong support for the stable operation of the market [6] - Summary of the 09 contract delivery: The log 2509 contract had 136 paired delivery lots, a decrease of 89% compared to the 1281 paired lots of the 07 contract; 131 lots were successfully delivered, with a delivery success rate of 96.3%. According to MULIAN news, as the delivery month approaches, some processing factories said that they will reduce the spot purchase of logs in the near future and wait for the delivery goods of the 11 contract to flow out. The downstream generally recognizes the overall quality of the delivery standard products [6] Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%; from January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1.044801 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [6] - In terms of real estate data, the shipment and outbound volume continue to be poor year - on - year. Indicators such as new construction starts and funds in place all reflect the downward trend of the real estate market. In September, the funds in place for real estate development were 1.19281 trillion yuan, showing an improving trend compared to the summer off - season, but with a relatively large decline compared to the same period in previous years. The demand side of logs remains weak [6] Strategy and Suggestions - Looking back at the previous trends, the 2509 contract continued to weaken during the off - season in the second quarter, but had a large increase from July to August, mainly driven by the shortage of some specifications, the increase in foreign market quotes, and the inventory - building demand brought by the approaching delivery of the 09 contract. The spot price also strengthened synchronously. However, due to the still cautious market expectation for future real estate demand, the near - and far - month contracts showed a differentiated trend after entering the delivery month [8] - In September, the main contract was 2511. The price increased and then quickly decreased before approaching the delivery month. The increase was driven by the foreign market price adjustment on the one hand and the expectation of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" on the other hand. Although September and October are the traditional peak seasons for wood processing and furniture production, the peak - season demand performance this year was average, with the average daily outbound volume stable at around 60,000 cubic meters, without a significant increase. After the National Day holiday in October, the futures price quickly corrected, reflecting that the market's pessimistic expectation for downstream demand has not been reversed. The weak fundamentals of the real estate industry continue, and coupled with the end of pre - holiday inventory building, the price was under pressure to decline [8] - The previous main contract 2601 continued to oscillate strongly when the 2511 contract declined rapidly. The decline of the 2511 contract was relatively large, and the price difference structure between the near - and far - month contracts was significantly differentiated. On the one hand, some markets were trading on the expectation that "China's special port dues on US ships will increase the log import cost", but with the progress of the China - US economic and trade consultations in late October, the futures price quickly corrected. On the other hand, the log procurement peak season is usually earlier than the real estate peak season. As the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" comes to an end, furniture and export - oriented timber orders are likely to decrease, and the demand for glued laminated timber and knot - free timber will decrease. In the short term, the 2601 contract began to decline rapidly and then oscillated at a low level [8] - The current downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news in terms of tariffs and real estate. The far - month contracts may enter the delivery period with a discount structure again. The log market still faces the fundamental pressure of high arrivals and weak demand in the future, and the spot price will continue to be under pressure, fluctuating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see. According to Ganglian news, the foreign market price in November may be between 115 - 118 US dollars. If the slight increase is realized, it may provide some cost support for the spot price [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in the Jiangsu market remained flat. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. - As of September 14, there were 21 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 16 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September. - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port increased by 0.34 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port increased by 0.07 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 increased by 0.7% compared to last week, and the market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. [19] 3. Summary by Directory Overview - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was 755 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 765 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 850 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 14, 21 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 16 going to mainland China and 5 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.02 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.34 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.19 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.07 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1379 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 464,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,200 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 321,400 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 154,700 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 52,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0789 million cubic meters, an increase of 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 805 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.7% from last week. The market showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread changes this week were small [19]. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged. The prices of other specifications and varieties in different regions showed little change or slight decreases compared to four weeks ago [22]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spread of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine between the two regions [25]. - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30+ and 40+ radiata pine [39]. Other - **Freight Index**: As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,203.00 points, up 77 points (+3.6%) from last week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 815 points, up 1.4% from last week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,198.21 points, down 14.3% from last week. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.115, down 0.1% week - on - week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.707 [54].

Group 1: Report Summary - This is a log data daily report from the Research Institute of Guomao Futures, dated August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Price Information Spot Prices - In Shandong, for radiata pine, 3.9m medium A is 750 yuan/m³, 5.9m medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9m small A is 720 yuan/m³, 5.9m small A is 730 yuan/m³; in Jiangsu, 4m medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6m medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4m small A is 720 yuan/m³, 6m small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4] Outer - Disk Quotes - The price range of 4m medium A radiata pine in July is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS m³, up 6 dollars from June's 110 - 111 dollars/JAS m³ [4] Futures Prices - LG2511 contract is 845.5 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan from the previous period; LG2509 contract is 824.5 yuan/m³, down 8 yuan from the previous period [4] Downstream Timber Prices - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the price of 4000*50*100 wood squares is 1270 yuan and 1260 yuan respectively, unchanged from the previous period [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Information Supply - In June 2025, New Zealand's log import volume was 1710000 m³, North American timber was 101000 m³, and European timber was 131000 m³; in July, New Zealand's was 1673000 m³, North American timber was 95000 m³, and European timber was 190000 m³. The shipping volume from New Zealand to China from July 14 - 20 and July 21 - 27 was 320000 JAS m³ [4] Inventory - On August 1, the total inventory was 3170000 m³, with Shandong inventory at 1930000 m³ and Jiangsu inventory at 960000 m³ [4] Demand - On August 1, the daily average outbound volume was 64200 m³, with Shandong's at 35700 m³ and Jiangsu's at 23200 m³ [4] Group 4: Core View - The log spot market was basically stable this week, port inventory and outbound volume were stable, and spot prices rose due to the increase in the price of futures - spot merchants. The current market price of 5.9m medium A is 790 - 800 yuan/m³, and the delivery cost is about 820 - 830 yuan/m². It is expected that the log 09 contract will operate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [4]