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国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250921
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 08:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in the Jiangsu market remained flat. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. - As of September 14, there were 21 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 16 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September. - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port increased by 0.34 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port increased by 0.07 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 increased by 0.7% compared to last week, and the market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. [19] 3. Summary by Directory Overview - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was 755 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 765 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 850 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 14, 21 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 16 going to mainland China and 5 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.02 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.34 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.19 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.07 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1379 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 464,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,200 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 321,400 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 154,700 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 52,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0789 million cubic meters, an increase of 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 805 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.7% from last week. The market showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread changes this week were small [19]. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged. The prices of other specifications and varieties in different regions showed little change or slight decreases compared to four weeks ago [22]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spread of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine between the two regions [25]. - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30+ and 40+ radiata pine [39]. Other - **Freight Index**: As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,203.00 points, up 77 points (+3.6%) from last week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 815 points, up 1.4% from last week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,198.21 points, down 14.3% from last week. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.115, down 0.1% week - on - week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.707 [54].
原木数据日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:06
Group 1: Report Summary - This is a log data daily report from the Research Institute of Guomao Futures, dated August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Price Information Spot Prices - In Shandong, for radiata pine, 3.9m medium A is 750 yuan/m³, 5.9m medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9m small A is 720 yuan/m³, 5.9m small A is 730 yuan/m³; in Jiangsu, 4m medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6m medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4m small A is 720 yuan/m³, 6m small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4] Outer - Disk Quotes - The price range of 4m medium A radiata pine in July is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS m³, up 6 dollars from June's 110 - 111 dollars/JAS m³ [4] Futures Prices - LG2511 contract is 845.5 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan from the previous period; LG2509 contract is 824.5 yuan/m³, down 8 yuan from the previous period [4] Downstream Timber Prices - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the price of 4000*50*100 wood squares is 1270 yuan and 1260 yuan respectively, unchanged from the previous period [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Information Supply - In June 2025, New Zealand's log import volume was 1710000 m³, North American timber was 101000 m³, and European timber was 131000 m³; in July, New Zealand's was 1673000 m³, North American timber was 95000 m³, and European timber was 190000 m³. The shipping volume from New Zealand to China from July 14 - 20 and July 21 - 27 was 320000 JAS m³ [4] Inventory - On August 1, the total inventory was 3170000 m³, with Shandong inventory at 1930000 m³ and Jiangsu inventory at 960000 m³ [4] Demand - On August 1, the daily average outbound volume was 64200 m³, with Shandong's at 35700 m³ and Jiangsu's at 23200 m³ [4] Group 4: Core View - The log spot market was basically stable this week, port inventory and outbound volume were stable, and spot prices rose due to the increase in the price of futures - spot merchants. The current market price of 5.9m medium A is 790 - 800 yuan/m³, and the delivery cost is about 820 - 830 yuan/m². It is expected that the log 09 contract will operate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [4]