1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with some remaining flat and some increasing. The European timber spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. [4] - In August, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand, with 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of some ports has changed, and the total inventory of the four major ports has decreased by 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 has increased by 1.7% compared with last week, and the market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level. The monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. [16] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of August 3rd, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand in August, 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 17,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 6,000 cubic meters). [6][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1,245,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 cubic meters), Taicang Port is about 376,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 59,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou is about 390,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 30,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 191,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2,203,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] 3.3 Market Trends - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 830.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 1.7% increase compared with last week. The market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 10 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 11 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 1 yuan per cubic meter. [16] 3.4 Price and Spread - The spot price of logs shows different trends in different regions and specifications, with some remaining flat and some increasing. [20] - The downstream building wood square spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu regions has mostly remained flat compared with last week. [22] - The report presents the regional price differences of mainstream timber species and the price differences between tree species and specifications through data and charts. [23][40] 3.5 Other - As of the week of August 8th, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index BDI was recorded at 2051 points, a 1.6% increase compared with last week; the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was recorded at 683 points, a 0.7% increase compared with last week; the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was recorded at 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decrease compared with last week. [6][54][55] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has fluctuated narrowly this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate has decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 7.184, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate has decreased by 0.6% to 1.680. [6][54][55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The log market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have generally declined slightly this week. The futures market shows a high - level volatile trend, with the closing price of the main contract rising, and the monthly spread tends to narrow [4][15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of July 13, there were 19 vessels departing from New Zealand in July, among which 17 were bound for the Chinese mainland, and 2 were for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 16 vessels will arrive in July and 3 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - **Daily shipment volume**: As of the week of July 11, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 19,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 11,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters) [6][12]. - **Port inventory**: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.1808 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 18,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 506,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 410,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 217,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 21,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.3147 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 7,100 cubic meters [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trend - The log contract market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. This week, the monthly spread tends to narrow. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 3 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 9.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 6.5 yuan per cubic meter [15]. - As of July 18, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 828.5 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 6.0%. This week, the market showed a high - level volatile trend, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot price**: The prices of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter compared with last week; the price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged, and that in Jiangsu also remained unchanged; the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter [4][19]. - **Regional spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spreads of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23][27] - **Tree species and specification spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, like the spreads between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [38][40][42] 3.5 Other - **Freight and exchange rate**: As of the week of July 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,052 points, a week - on - week increase of 389 points (23.4%); the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 673 points, a week - on - week increase of 4.3%; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,646.90 points, a week - on - week decrease of 5.0%. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.182, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 0.8% to 1.677 [6][52][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract LG2507 of logs closed at 812 yuan per cubic meter as of June 20, up 5.8% from the previous week. The market performance was relatively strong this week, while the fundamental changes were marginal. The monthly spreads widened this week, with the 07 - 09 spread at 14.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread at 18 yuan per cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread at 3.5 yuan per cubic meter [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of June 15, a total of 17 vessels departed from New Zealand in June, with 13 bound for mainland China and 4 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among the vessels departing in June, about 10 are expected to arrive in June and 7 in July. The expected arrival volume in June is 1.51 million cubic meters [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of June 13, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, the inventory at Lanshan Port was about 1.1646 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 8,000 cubic meters), at Taicang Port was about 501,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,800 cubic meters), at Xinminzhou was about 421,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 11,700 cubic meters), and at Jiangdu Port was about 214,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.3017 million cubic meters, a decrease of 7,700 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of June 20, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 812 yuan per cubic meter, up 5.8% from the previous week. The monthly spreads widened, with the 07 - 09 spread at 14.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread at 18 yuan per cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread at 3.5 yuan per cubic meter [16]. 3.4 Other - As of the week of June 20, the Baltic Dry Index recorded 1,689 points, down 279 points (-14.2%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), recorded 624 points, up 3.3% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) recorded 1,869.59 points, down 10.5% from the previous week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index slightly increased after hitting a bottom in the past week. The US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was recorded at 7.180, basically flat week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 0.8% to 1.677 [56][57].

Core Insights - The study published in "Nature Plants" indicates that birch trees, once dominant in the Himalayas, are being gradually replaced by slower-growing coniferous trees, specifically firs, which may reshape habitats for other species and alter the Himalayan ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Research Findings - The research focused on forests near Mount Everest and the western Annapurna Conservation Area, selecting sites with minimal human disturbance and similar climatic conditions [1]. - Fir trees have shown more active reproduction in recent decades, while birch trees peaked in reproduction between 1920 and 1970, with lower rates in recent years [2]. - The tree line for firs is moving upward approximately 11 centimeters per year, compared to 6 centimeters for birch trees [2]. Group 2: Climate Change Impact - The researchers compared three climate warming scenarios (low, medium, and high) against pre-industrial levels to predict changes in tree lines by 2100 [2]. - Fir trees thrive better in warmer and drier conditions, while birch trees struggle to adapt, suggesting that firs may continue to ascend and occupy higher territories under most warming scenarios [2]. Group 3: Societal and Ecological Implications - The shift in tree species may negatively impact local wildlife, such as snow leopards, which prefer open terrains for hunting [3]. - The encroachment of forests into grazing lands has led to conflicts with pastoral interests, prompting locals to cut down trees to reclaim pasture for yaks and sheep [3]. - The research aims to provide tools for local residents and forestry managers to predict how tree lines will shift with climate change, aiding in future planning [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread widened slightly this week [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of June 15, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in June, all going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in June and 0 in July, with an expected arrival volume of 310,000 cubic meters in June [5][8][9]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 100 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 125,180 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 535,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 34,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 373,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 19,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 246,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 41,900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4077 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 58,300 cubic meters from the previous week [6][14]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 07 - 09 spread was - 17 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread was - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread was - 3.5 yuan/cubic meter [17]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market quoted 775 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 810 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [21][24][31] - **Species and Specification Spread**: It shows the price differences between different species and specifications, like the difference between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [45][46][50] 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of June 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1968 points, up 335 points (20.5%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 604 points, up 0.7% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 6.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index hit a new low this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.1% from last week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.1% from last week [58][59].

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 ◆ 现货价格走势：对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价750元/方，较上周持平，江苏市场报价775元/方， 较上周持平，目前两地区价差为-25。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价810元/方，较上周持平；山东地区5.9米30+ 辐射松报价760元/方，较上周持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。（千里目 数据） ◆ 供应：截止到6月1日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有1条，其中有1条去往中国大陆，0条去往中国台 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery products has declined, and the European timber market is in short supply. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.52 million cubic meters in May. The total inventory of four major ports has decreased slightly, and the market is in a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Spot price**: For 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong is 755 yuan/cubic meter (down 15 yuan from last week), and in Jiangsu is 775 yuan/cubic meter (down 5 yuan from last week). The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remains unchanged at 830 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong drops 15 yuan to 765 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4]. - **Supply**: As of May 18, 25 ships departed from New Zealand in May, with 21 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 14 ships will arrive in May and 11 in June, with an expected arrival volume of 1.52 million cubic meters in May [4][7]. - **Demand and inventory**: As of the week of May 16, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port is 2.32 million cubic meters (down 0.04 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port is 1.20 million cubic meters (up 0.17 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.3676 million cubic meters, with a slight decrease of 77,100 cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. - **Other factors**: As of the week of May 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1340 points (down 48 points or 3.5% from last week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) is 581 points (up 4.9% from last week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1586.12 points (up 7.2% from last week). The US dollar index weakens, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.4% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.3% from last week [5][56]. 2. Supply - As of May 18, 25 ships departed from New Zealand in May, with 21 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 14 ships will arrive in May and 11 in June, with an expected arrival volume of 1.52 million cubic meters in May. Detailed ship - schedule data is provided [7][8]. 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 16, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port is 2.32 million cubic meters (down 0.04 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port is 1.20 million cubic meters (up 0.17 million cubic meters week - on - week). The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2468 million cubic meters (up 38,000 cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port is about 499,200 cubic meters (down 52,300 cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou is about 400,000 cubic meters (down 6600 cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port is about 221,600 cubic meters (up 19,800 cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.3676 million cubic meters, with a slight decrease of 77,100 cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. 4. Market Trends - As of May 23, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 775 yuan/cubic meter (down 1.0% from last week). The market continues to fluctuate weakly, and the fundamentals remain in a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads have widened, with the 07 - 09 monthly spread at - 15.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 monthly spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 monthly spread at - 4 yuan/cubic meter [15]. 5. Other - **Price and spreads**: Detailed data on spot price trends, regional price differences of mainstream timber species, and price differences between tree species and specifications are provided [18][20][22]. - **Price - influencing factors**: As of the week of May 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1340 points (down 48 points or 3.5% from last week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) is 581 points (up 4.9% from last week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1586.12 points (up 7.2% from last week). The US dollar index weakens, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.4% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.3% from last week [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with a slight decline in Shandong and stability in Jiangsu. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.19 million cubic meters in May. The demand and inventory situation varies among ports, with overall de - stocking in the four major ports. The futures market is in a weak and volatile state with a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For the mainstream delivery product of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quotes 770 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly from last week, and the Jiangsu market quotes 785 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong is 830 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong is 780 yuan/cubic meter, down 15 yuan/cubic meter from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4] - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all going to the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival of 1.19 million cubic meters [4][7] - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 0.1547 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] - As of the week of May 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1373 points, up 112 points (+8.9%) from last week, and its related sub - index BHSI is 568 points, down 0.2% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1347.84 points, down 1.7% from last week. The US dollar index rebounds, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.5% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.6% from last week [5][55] 2. Supply - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all headed for the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.19 million cubic meters [7] - Details of New Zealand log shipping schedules are provided, including departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters) [5][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2658 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 26,000 cubic meters, - 2.01%), Taicang Port is about 0.5515 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 80,700 cubic meters, - 12.76%), Xinminzhou is about 0.2746 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 47,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 0.2171 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 154,700 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] 4. Market Trends - As of May 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.3% from last week. The futures market continues to be weak and volatile, and the fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern. The month - spread changes are small this week, with the 07 - 09 month - spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 month - spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 month - spread at - 5 yuan/cubic meter [15] 5. Price and Spread - The spot price of logs and downstream construction timber shows different trends in different regions and specifications. Most prices remain stable compared to last week, with some showing slight decreases or increases over a four - week period [19][21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications of logs are presented graphically [22][23][28] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications of logs are also presented graphically [40][42][44] 6. Other - The freight index and exchange rate data are provided. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Handysize Bulk Carrier Index (BHSI), the Crude Oil Tanker Index (BDTI) show different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has a small change. The US dollar - RMB and US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rates also change [54][55]