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国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20260104
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-04 08:31
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with a price difference of 0 yuan/m³ for 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - As of the week of December 26, the daily average shipment volume and inventory of the four major ports remained unchanged from the previous week, with a total inventory of 1.9131 million cubic meters [6]. - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern with a weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 26 of which were going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for partial unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - Detailed information on the departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time of 33 ships from New Zealand in December is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2668 million cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [12]. - A table shows the inventory and daily shipment volume of major domestic ports over multiple time periods, including inventory changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan/m³, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 22.5 yuan/m³, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/m³ [18]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot price data of various tree species and specifications of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu regions, showing that most prices remained unchanged from the previous week [21]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of mainstream tree species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - **Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 40 + radiata pine [41]. 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of January 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1877.00 points, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 719 points, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.003, a 0.06% decrease from the previous week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.3% to 1.736 [56]. - A table shows the changes in freight - related indices and exchange rates over multiple time periods, including the comparison with the previous week and four weeks ago [55].
国泰君安期货·黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251214
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-14 10:44
CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势: 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松,山东市场报价 750 元/方,较上周 持平,江苏市场报价 740 元/方,较上周 持平,目前两地区价差为 10。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 855 元/方,较上周 持平;山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 760 元/方,较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市场上 的交易量较少,仍处于缺货状态。 截止到12月7日,12月从新西兰出发的船只总共有8条,其中有7条去往中国大陆,1条去往中国台湾、韩 国减载。12月出发的船只中,预计12月到港的约为8条,1月到港的有0条。预计11月到货128万方。 供应: 国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号:Z0020198 日期:2025年12月14日 Guota ...
国泰君安期货·黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251207
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-07 08:29
Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Log Weekly Report - Report date: December 7, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo - Company: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable compared to last week. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply. - The supply of logs from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, with 29 ships expected to arrive in that month. - The demand for logs in ports decreased, with the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port decreasing week-on-week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 78,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - The log futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, with the fundamentals maintaining a weak supply-demand pattern. The monthly spread marginally changed this week. [4][5][14][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Supply - As of November 30, 41 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 34 bound for the Chinese mainland and 7 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. Among them, about 12 ships were expected to arrive in November and 29 in December. The expected arrival volume in November was 1.41 million cubic meters. [5][8] 2. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 10,200 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,100 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 900 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.3688 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 6,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 452,400 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 50,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 274,100 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 35,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 160,200 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 13,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2555 million cubic meters, a week-on-week increase of 78,600 cubic meters. [6][14] 3. Market Trends - As of December 5, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 765.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.3% increase from last week. The futures market continued its weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a weak supply-demand pattern. The monthly spread marginally changed this week, with the 01 - 03 monthly spread at -13 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread at -24.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread at -11.5 yuan per cubic meter. [20] 4. Other - As of the week of December 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,814.00 points, a 254-point (9.9%) increase from last week. Its related sub-index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 841 points, a 1.7% increase from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,397.63 points, a 0.4% decrease from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate at 7.071, a 0.11% week-on-week decrease, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreasing by 0.8% to 1.73. [6][56]
黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251130
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 11:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market for logs is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. The prices of mainstream log varieties have remained stable, and the inventory in major ports has generally increased. Shipping schedules indicate a certain volume of log arrivals in the near future, and factors such as freight rates and exchange rates are also showing corresponding changes [4][6][20] Summary by Section Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the quotes in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from last week at 755 yuan/cubic meter, with a regional price difference of 0. The prices of other specifications of radiata pine in Shandong also remained stable. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4] Supply - As of November 23, there were 29 ships departing from New Zealand in November, with 23 bound for the Chinese mainland and 6 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea (with reduced loads). Among them, about 12 ships are expected to arrive in November, and 17 in December. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.41 million cubic meters [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 23,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,400 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 13,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,300 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.3628 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 70,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 401,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 30,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 238,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 25,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 173,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 7,700 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1769 million cubic meters, an increase of 66,900 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] Market Trends - As of November 27, the closing price of the main contract LG2601 was 765 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 1.7% from last week. The market continued to fluctuate weakly this week, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spread changes this week were relatively small, with the 01 - 03 monthly spread at - 11.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread at - 25 yuan/cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread at - 13.5 yuan/cubic meter [20] Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of various specifications of radiata pine and spruce in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from last week, but there were different degrees of decline compared to four weeks ago [24] - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [24][27] - **Species and Specification Spread**: It shows the price differences between different tree species and specifications, such as the price difference between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [38][39] Other - As of the week of November 30, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2480.00 points, an increase of 205 points (+9.0%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 825 points, an increase of 0.6% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.13 points, an increase of 0.7% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.079, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 2.4% to 1.748 [6][53]
原木周度报告:国泰君安期货·黑色与建材-20251123
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-23 09:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat compared to last week, and European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of November 16, 17 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 16 bound for mainland China, and it is expected that 1.41 million cubic meters will arrive in November [5][8]. - As of the week of November 14, the daily average shipment volume of major ports decreased, and the total inventory of four major ports increased by 29,200 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][13]. - As of the week of November 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 7.1% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate rising by 0.15% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rising by 1.6% [6][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - As of November 16, 17 ships departed from New Zealand in November, 16 of which were headed for mainland China, and 12 ships were expected to arrive in November and 5 in December. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.41 million cubic meters [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 20,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 10,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters) [6][13]. - Inventory: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2928 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 27,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 371,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 24,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 264,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 9,900 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 181,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 32,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.11 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 29,200 cubic meters [6][13]. Market Trends - As of November 21, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 768.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 2.3% compared to last week. The monthly spread (absolute value) widened this week [19]. Price and Spread - Spot price: The prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat compared to last week, with varying degrees of decline compared to four weeks ago [22]. - Regional spread: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [22][24][29]. - Tree species and specification spread: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications of radiata pine [41][43][45]. Other - Freight and exchange rate: As of the week of November 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 7.1% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate rising by 0.15% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rising by 1.6% [6][55][56].
黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251116
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-16 12:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery-grade 3.9-meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 755 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while in Jiangsu it decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 755 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9-meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 855 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9-meter 30+ radiata pine decreased by 5 yuan/cubic meter to 780 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - As of November 9, there were 11 vessels departing from New Zealand in November, with 10 bound for mainland China and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8]. - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2658 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 5,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 346,400 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 42,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's was about 254,600 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 55,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 214,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 15,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 2,125 points, an increase of 21 points (+1.0%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was recorded at 819 points, an increase of 1.1% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was recorded at 1,451.38 points, an increase of 3.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has recently remained around 99 - 100. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was recorded at 7.098, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 9, 11 vessels departed from New Zealand in November, with 10 going to mainland China and 1 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8] - A table shows the detailed information of New Zealand log vessel schedules, including departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [9] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports (Lanshan, Taicang, Xinminzhou, and Jiangdu) was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] - A table provides detailed inventory and shipment data of domestic main ports, including inventory and shipment volume at different time points and changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13] 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 14, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 788.5 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week. The main contract on the futures market rebounded this week, while the fundamental supply - demand situation remained weak. The monthly spreads (in absolute value) tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 7 yuan/cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 21.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter [18] 3.4 Other - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,125 points (+1.0% week-on-week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 819 points (+1.1% week-on-week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,451.38 points (+3.6% week-on-week). The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.098 (-0.34% week-on-week), and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50] - A table presents the changes in freight rates and exchange rates, including the Baltic freight index, container shipping index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and RMB, and the US dollar and New Zealand dollar, compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [49]
黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251026
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-26 11:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream delivery products remained stable this week, and the European timber spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still out of stock. The supply is expected to reach 1.77 million cubic meters in October. The demand has increased, and the total inventory of the four major ports has increased. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the monthly spread has a weakening trend [4][5][6][20] Summary by Directory Overview - The price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 765 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 775 yuan/cubic meter, both remaining flat compared to last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 910 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 805 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat. The European timber spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were out of stock [4] Supply - As of October 19, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in October, with 26 going to the Chinese mainland and 7 going to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 20 ships will arrive in October and 13 in November, with an expected arrival of 1.77 million cubic meters in October [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.18 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.92 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 0.91 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.05 million cubic meters). The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2338 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.052 million cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 0.3928 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.0123 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 0.3736 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.0162 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 0.1185 million cubic meters (no change). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1187 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.0559 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][14] Market Trend - As of October 24, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 829 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.1% compared to last week. The market first rose and then fell, and the market was in a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread had a weakening trend, with the 01 - 03 monthly spread at - 5 yuan/cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread at - 6 yuan/cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread at - 1 yuan/cubic meter [20] Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of various tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged compared to last week [26] - **Regional Spread**: The price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications were presented in corresponding charts [27][28][33][37] - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: The price differences between different tree species and specifications in Shandong were presented in corresponding charts [45][47][49][51][53][55] Other - As of the week of October 26, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1991 points, a decrease of 78 points (- 3.8%) compared to last week, and its related sub - index BHSI was 878 points, a decrease of 0.8% compared to last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.46 points, an increase of 7.1% compared to last week. The US dollar index was volatile. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.122, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.2% to 1.740 [60]
国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250921
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 08:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in the Jiangsu market remained flat. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. - As of September 14, there were 21 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 16 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September. - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port increased by 0.34 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port increased by 0.07 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 increased by 0.7% compared to last week, and the market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. [19] 3. Summary by Directory Overview - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was 755 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 765 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 850 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 14, 21 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 16 going to mainland China and 5 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.02 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.34 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.19 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.07 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1379 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 464,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,200 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 321,400 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 154,700 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 52,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0789 million cubic meters, an increase of 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 805 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.7% from last week. The market showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread changes this week were small [19]. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged. The prices of other specifications and varieties in different regions showed little change or slight decreases compared to four weeks ago [22]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spread of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine between the two regions [25]. - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30+ and 40+ radiata pine [39]. Other - **Freight Index**: As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,203.00 points, up 77 points (+3.6%) from last week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 815 points, up 1.4% from last week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,198.21 points, down 14.3% from last week. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.115, down 0.1% week - on - week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.707 [54].
国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250810
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 07:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with some remaining flat and some increasing. The European timber spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. [4] - In August, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand, with 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of some ports has changed, and the total inventory of the four major ports has decreased by 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 has increased by 1.7% compared with last week, and the market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level. The monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. [16] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of August 3rd, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand in August, 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 17,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 6,000 cubic meters). [6][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1,245,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 cubic meters), Taicang Port is about 376,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 59,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou is about 390,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 30,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 191,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2,203,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] 3.3 Market Trends - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 830.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 1.7% increase compared with last week. The market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 10 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 11 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 1 yuan per cubic meter. [16] 3.4 Price and Spread - The spot price of logs shows different trends in different regions and specifications, with some remaining flat and some increasing. [20] - The downstream building wood square spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu regions has mostly remained flat compared with last week. [22] - The report presents the regional price differences of mainstream timber species and the price differences between tree species and specifications through data and charts. [23][40] 3.5 Other - As of the week of August 8th, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index BDI was recorded at 2051 points, a 1.6% increase compared with last week; the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was recorded at 683 points, a 0.7% increase compared with last week; the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was recorded at 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decrease compared with last week. [6][54][55] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has fluctuated narrowly this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate has decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 7.184, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate has decreased by 0.6% to 1.680. [6][54][55]
国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 12:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The log market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have generally declined slightly this week. The futures market shows a high - level volatile trend, with the closing price of the main contract rising, and the monthly spread tends to narrow [4][15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of July 13, there were 19 vessels departing from New Zealand in July, among which 17 were bound for the Chinese mainland, and 2 were for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 16 vessels will arrive in July and 3 in August, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - **Daily shipment volume**: As of the week of July 11, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 19,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 11,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters) [6][12]. - **Port inventory**: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.1808 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 18,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 506,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 410,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 217,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 21,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.3147 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 7,100 cubic meters [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trend - The log contract market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. This week, the monthly spread tends to narrow. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 3 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 9.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 6.5 yuan per cubic meter [15]. - As of July 18, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 828.5 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 6.0%. This week, the market showed a high - level volatile trend, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot price**: The prices of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter compared with last week; the price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged, and that in Jiangsu also remained unchanged; the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter [4][19]. - **Regional spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spreads of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23][27] - **Tree species and specification spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, like the spreads between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [38][40][42] 3.5 Other - **Freight and exchange rate**: As of the week of July 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,052 points, a week - on - week increase of 389 points (23.4%); the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 673 points, a week - on - week increase of 4.3%; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,646.90 points, a week - on - week decrease of 5.0%. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.182, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 0.8% to 1.677 [6][52][53]