原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 04 后市研判 报告P摘AR要T 01 （1）乌克兰收到美和平计划草案，地缘局势缓和。 市场焦点 （2）美国EIA当周原油库存去库。 重点数据 （1）美国至11月14日当周EIA原油库存 -342.6万桶，预期-60.3万桶，前值641.3万桶。 （2）美国至11月14日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -69.8万桶，前值-34.6万桶。 （3）美国至11月14日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 53.3万桶，前值79.8万桶。 主要观点 本周油价先涨后跌，整体呈现震荡偏弱的走势。原油的影响因素多空交织，周初地缘政治扰动为油价提供支撑， 乌克兰袭击俄罗斯港口一度导致原油出口暂停，供应收紧的担忧支撑油价上涨。随后市场消息称美俄秘密达成俄乌停 火协议框架，随后乌克兰总统泽连斯基证实收到美国和平计划草案，美国短期对俄罗斯态度的转变，令市场预期美国 放松对俄罗斯能源领域的制裁，供应宽松预期推动油价下跌。后续来看，原油供应过剩的预期仍是市 ...

Report Summary - The report is a weekly crude oil report from AVIC Futures dated November 14, 2025 [2] - This week, oil prices first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile and weak trend. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. Geopolitical disturbances provided support for oil prices at the beginning of the week, but the OPEC monthly report's shift in market expectations from tight to surplus intensified concerns about oversupply, causing sharp price fluctuations. In the short term, the expectation of oversupply is the main pressure on the market, but OPEC+'s suspension of the production increase plan for the first quarter of next year, strong demand, and geopolitical uncertainties provide support. The report expects crude oil to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [7] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $57 - 62 per barrel [8] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors include geopolitical disturbances [10] - Bearish factors include the shift in OPEC market expectations and EIA inventory accumulation [10] Macroeconomic Analysis OPEC Report - OPEC's latest monthly report on November 12 shows that the global crude oil market expectation has shifted from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC supply growth expectations for this year are raised by 110,000 barrels per day, and the demand for OPEC crude in 2026 is lowered, indicating a pessimistic view on next year's demand [11] - In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+'s production was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September, showing a slowdown in the pace of OPEC+ production increase [11] - The global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day, and for 2026 is 1.38 million barrels per day. From January to September this year, global oil inventories increased by 304 million barrels, with about 156 million barrels being marine crude oil [11] Geopolitical Situation - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with large - scale attacks on Ukrainian military and energy facilities. Short - term negotiations are unlikely as Russia is ready for talks but Ukraine has stopped relevant dialogues until the end of this year [12] - The US - Venezuela relationship remains uncertain, with the Trump administration not planning to launch an attack in Venezuela currently [12] - The global geopolitical situation is complex and uncertain. Although it has not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply in the short term, it affects market sentiment and increases oil price volatility [12] Data Analysis Supply Side - As of the week ending November 7, US domestic crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 211,000 barrels. There is a probability of further increase in production, and supply pressure will gradually emerge as the peak consumption season for refined oil ends [13] - As of the week ending November 7, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 414, the same as the previous value. Due to factors such as capital expenditure contraction, resource grade decline, and policy adjustment, it is expected to remain at a low level this year [15] Demand Side - As of the week ending October 31, the US refinery utilization rate was 86%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The decline rate has slowed down, and it may reach a seasonal inflection point [18] - As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil demand decreased by 843,000 barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand increased by 189,000 barrels per day [22] - In September, the refinery utilization rate of 16 European countries was 82.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.48 percentage points, and it is expected to face downward pressure at the beginning of the fourth quarter [24] - As of November 13, the operating rate of domestic state - owned refineries was 78.31%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the previous period, entering the seasonal maintenance stage. The operating rate of local independent refineries was 61.97%, a decrease of 0.97 percentage points. The operating rate of state - owned refineries is expected to decline, while local refineries are expected to operate stably [30] - As of November 14, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic state - owned refineries was 704.12 yuan/ton, a recovery of 175.13 yuan/ton from the previous period, ending the continuous decline. The comprehensive refining profit of local independent refineries was 176.59 yuan/ton, a recovery of 41.64 yuan/ton [34] Inventory - As of the week ending November 7, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 6.413 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 1.96 million barrels and the previous value of 5.202 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 798,000 barrels, compared with the previous value of 498,000 barrels. EIA crude oil inventory may reach a phased inflection point [41] - As of the week ending November 7, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 346,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory was 205 million barrels, a decrease of 9.4 million barrels from the previous period [46] Crack Spread - As of November 12, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, US Gulf was $24.76 per barrel, showing a continuous increase. It indicates that although the refinery utilization rate has decreased, downstream consumption demand is still strong, which supports the crack spread. Attention should be paid to whether refineries will increase the utilization rate due to profit incentives [47] Market Outlook - The factors influencing crude oil remain mixed. OPEC+'s suspension of the production increase plan, geopolitical factors, and shale oil costs support the market, but OPEC's market expectation shift intensifies concerns about oversupply. The market lacks a clear driving force and is expected to continue a wide - range volatile trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $57 - 62 per barrel [51]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail prices of refined oil in China have been reduced for the eighth time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, leading to lower costs for consumers and logistics companies [1][2][3]. Price Adjustment Summary - The recent price adjustment results in a decrease of approximately 0.06 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel. This year, there have been 20 rounds of price adjustments, including 6 increases, 6 pauses, and 8 decreases [2][3]. - For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up will cost 3 yuan less, while for large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by 2.4 yuan [3]. Market Trends - Market analysts expect a high probability of further price reductions in the next round of adjustments due to the overall weak demand in the refined oil market [4]. - During the current price adjustment cycle, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have shown a downward trend, with limited replenishment intentions from downstream industries [5][6]. Demand and Supply Analysis - The demand for gasoline has weakened as consumers return to regular commuting, while diesel demand remains sluggish due to adverse weather conditions affecting outdoor work [6]. - Analysts suggest that while diesel demand may see some improvement due to upcoming logistics activities, gasoline prices are likely to remain under pressure without significant holiday demand [7]. International Oil Price Dynamics - The international crude oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production plans, but later declining as geopolitical premiums receded [8][9]. - Current market conditions indicate a cautious growth in global oil supply, with expectations of oversupply reinforcing downward pressure on oil prices [9][10].