1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, international oil prices rebounded significantly. The OPEC+ is expected to continue the policy of suspending crude oil production increase in February. Although the traditional demand peak season continues, the upward momentum of oil prices is not strong due to the background of supply - demand surplus. [5][124][127] - The polyester industry chain is affected by the Spring Festival. In February, the demand will decline first and then rebound rapidly. The decline in demand has limited negative impact on prices, and the main influencing factor lies in the supply side. If the supply does not increase significantly, the price decline due to seasonal demand drop is a buying opportunity. [8][10] - In the short - term, the profits of PX, PTA, and bottle chips are still strong in February, while the profits of filament are difficult to improve in the short - term. In the long - term, the new production capacity of filament and staple fiber will increase in 2026, and the production profits may be under long - term pressure. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol improved in January and still has room for improvement in the future. [128] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In January, the prices of polyester industry chain varieties fluctuated greatly. PX price was relatively weak, while PTA and bottle chips were relatively strong. Ethylene glycol, which performed poorly in 2025, rebounded significantly in January. [16] - **PX**: The PX price was affected by the tight PTA supply since the fourth quarter of 2025. In January 2026, the PX price was weakly correlated with crude oil. The PX futures had a maximum cumulative increase of 23.2% from the lowest point in October 2025 to the highest point in January 2026. [17][19] - **PTA**: In January, the PTA average monthly operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points compared with December 2025. The PTA social inventory changed from destocking to stocking, but the stocking speed was relatively moderate. The PTA futures price increased slightly more than PX from the low point in October 2025 to the high point in January 2026. [20][22][24] - **MEG**: In January, the ethylene glycol operating rate decreased slightly. The oil - based ethylene glycol profit improved slightly, and the coal - based ethylene glycol profit approached the break - even point. The ethylene glycol price rebounded rapidly from a low level. The maximum cumulative increase from the lowest point in late December to the highest point in January was 12%. [25][26] - **Staple Fiber**: In January, the staple fiber operating rate increased significantly. Affected by the price increase of PTA and ethylene glycol, the staple fiber processing fee was poor. The staple fiber price increased, but the increase was slightly lower than the increase in polymerization cost. [27][32] - **Bottle Chips**: In January, the bottle chip operating rate continued to decline, reaching a low level in recent years. Although the domestic bottle chip demand was in the off - season, the supply contraction offset the weak demand, and the bottle chip profit was relatively strong. [33][35] 3.2 OPEC+ Suspends Production Increase Policy, but the Expectation of Supply Surplus Remains - **Geopolitical Instability and Weather Factors**: In early January 2026, the OPEC+ meeting confirmed the policy of suspending crude oil production increase in the first quarter of 2026. It is expected that the meeting on February 1 will maintain this policy. Geopolitical factors such as the relations between the US and Venezuela and Iran will affect the crude oil supply expectation, but the impact on supply is weak under the background of global crude oil supply surplus. The cold weather in January affected the oil production in the US and Kazakhstan, but the impact is short - term. [36][37] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: The EIA raised the global crude oil production forecast for 2026 to 10765000 barrels per day in January, an increase of 23000 barrels per day compared with the December forecast. The EIA significantly lowered the 2026 demand forecast by 34000 barrels per day compared with the December forecast. The EIA predicted a supply surplus of 2830000 barrels per day in 2026 and 2080000 barrels per day in 2027. [37][39][42] - **Oil Price Trends**: In January, international oil prices rebounded significantly, with a cumulative increase of more than 14%. The winter heating demand will continue in February, and oil prices are still expected to rise. However, under the background of supply surplus, attention should be paid to the risk of oil prices falling after rising. [43][50][52] 3.3 Low Operating Rates in Multiple Links, with a Decline Expected in Spring Maintenance - **No New Production Capacity Pressure in the Short - Term, but Many Equipment Maintenance Plans**: In the first quarter of 2026, there are no new production plans for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. The operating rate changes will affect the supply. The spring maintenance of petrochemical equipment around March usually has a greater impact on the operating rates of PX and PTA. Currently, the PX operating rate is high, and the PTA operating rate is low. [53][54][61] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply Expected to Decline, and Import Cost May Rise**: In 2026, there are three new ethylene glycol production devices planned to be put into operation, but there is a possibility of delay. The ethylene glycol operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and the supply is expected to decrease. The import cost may rise due to the increase in natural gas prices. [69][71][79] 3.4 Demand Affected by Seasonal Factors, Polyester Operating Rate to Decline First and Then Rebound - **Demand Fluctuations Concentrated in February, with Good Long - Term Demand**: In January 2026, the demand for the polyester industry chain continued to decline. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates of polyester and looms will decline first and then rebound rapidly. In the long - run, the industry chain demand is generally good. [80] - **PTA Expected to Stock Moderately, Ethylene Glycol Inventory Still under Pressure to Increase**: In January, the PTA social inventory changed from destocking to stocking, and the ethylene glycol inventory continued to increase, but the stocking speed slowed down. In February, the PTA stocking speed may accelerate, but it is expected to be moderate. The ethylene glycol inventory still has the pressure to increase, but the decline in the operating rate may offset the stocking pressure. [91][92][94] - **Poor Profits of Polyester Products, Difficult to Improve in the Short - Term**: In January, the polymerization cost increased, and the demand for polyester products first increased and then decreased. The processing fees of filament and staple fiber were poor, while the processing fee of bottle chips increased slightly. In the short - term, the profits of filament and staple fiber are expected to be relatively poor, and the pressure on the profits of filament and staple fiber is still high in the long - term. [95][96][97] - **Seasonal Stocking of Filament, Supply Decline to Offset Stocking Pressure**: In 2025, the export volumes of major polyester products such as filament, bottle chips, and staple fiber increased year - on - year. In January 2026, the filament inventory showed a differentiation trend, and the stocking situation will continue in February. The staple fiber inventory was relatively good in January, but there is still stocking pressure in February. [101][103][109] - **Greater Fluctuations in Loom Operating Rate, and the Downstream Prosperity May Increase**: Before the Spring Festival, the operating rates of pure polyester yarn and looms will decline to the lowest point, and then rebound rapidly after the festival. The average operating rate of looms in 2026 is expected to be higher than that in 2024. [112][113] 3.5 Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Expected to Increase, and the Export Market May Improve - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Demand in 2025, Expected to Accelerate in 2026**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, and the growth rate in December was 0.9%. The domestic retail sales of textile and apparel in December 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year. With the implementation of domestic demand - promoting policies, the domestic demand for textile and apparel is expected to grow faster in 2026. [118][120] - **Easing of Global Economic and Trade Relations Conducive to the Recovery of Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, China's total export value increased by 5.5% year - on - year. The total export value of textile and apparel decreased by 2.4% year - on - year, with textile exports increasing by 0.5% and clothing exports decreasing by 5%. Affected by the US tariff policy, clothing exports decreased in 2025, and are expected to recover in 2026. [121][122] 3.6 Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In January 2026, international oil prices strengthened. PX and PTA prices were weak at the beginning of the oil price rebound due to the decline in polyester industry chain demand. The sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices boosted the ethylene glycol price. In January, the PX operating rate was stable, the PTA average monthly operating rate increased, the ethylene glycol average monthly operating rate decreased slightly, and the polyester operating rate continued to decline. The PTA inventory changed from destocking to stocking, and the ethylene glycol inventory continued to increase. The profits of PX and PTA were good, and the profits of filament were poor. [124][125][126] - **Outlook**: In February 2026, the OPEC+ may continue to suspend crude oil production increase. The traditional demand peak season continues, but the upward momentum of oil prices is not strong. The polyester industry chain demand will decline due to the Spring Festival, and the operating rates of polyester and looms will decline first and then rebound. The price decline due to seasonal demand drop is a buying opportunity. The ethylene glycol inventory may continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline in the operating rate. In the short - term, the profits of PX, PTA, and bottle chips are still strong, while the profits of filament are difficult to improve. In the long - term, the profits of filament and staple fiber may be under pressure. [127][128]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates an oversupply of oil by early 2026 due to the U.S. declaring it will "market" Venezuelan crude oil, while progress in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia may lead to the end of the conflict in the first half of 2026, causing a short-term drop in oil prices [1] PX Market Summary - PX prices have recently surged to seasonal highs, supported by a favorable MX supply environment and increased overseas restart plans due to improved profitability [1] - Domestic and international PX facilities are operating smoothly, with expectations of increased supply despite some fluctuations in factory operations [1] - Upcoming maintenance plans for PX in Q2 next year may support prices, but risks of supply increases and declining polyester demand are emerging [1] TA Market Summary - TA main contract spot basis is at -48 CNY/ton, with PTA spot processing fees at 390 CNY/ton, reflecting a positive change [2] - PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the medium term as the capacity expansion cycle ends, with a focus on potential device restarts due to recent improvements in processing fees [2] - Polyester operating rates are at 90.8%, but there are signs of weakening demand, with potential for accelerated production cuts in January [2] PF and PR Market Summary - PF production profits are at -4 CNY/ton, with weak downstream demand leading to increased inventory [3] - Bottle chip processing fees are at 458 CNY/ton, with supply recovering but short-term fluctuations expected due to planned maintenance [3] Strategy Overview - The strategy for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral, with expectations of increased supply and potential price corrections in the short term [4] - Monitoring of downstream polyester load changes and financial movements is crucial, as the market faces risks from increased supply and declining demand [4] - The medium-term outlook for PTA processing fees is positive, with a focus on device restart situations as the market stabilizes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a potential decrease of 95 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.07-0.09 yuan per liter, with an increased expected drop of 15 yuan per ton compared to last Friday, suggesting a significant downward trend in oil prices [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The market anticipates a continued decline in oil prices due to expectations of oversupply in crude oil, influenced by the International Energy Agency's report and ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [3]. - As of last Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell by 0.69% to $57.34 per barrel, while Brent crude oil decreased by 0.62% to $61.17 per barrel [3]. - Current WTI crude oil prices show a slight increase of 0.24%, reaching $57.67 per barrel [3]. Group 2: Regional Fuel Prices - The price of 92 octane gasoline in Beijing is 6.84 yuan, while 95 octane is 7.28 yuan, and 98 octane is 8.78 yuan [1][4]. - In Shanghai, the prices are 6.81 yuan for 92 octane, 7.24 yuan for 95 octane, and 9.14 yuan for 98 octane [1][4]. - Other regions, such as Guangdong and Jiangsu, show similar pricing trends, with 95 octane gasoline priced at 7.43 yuan and 7.25 yuan respectively [4][5].

Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the crude oil market, covering macro - analysis, multi - empty focus, supply - demand analysis, and future market judgment [8]. - This week, the oil price first rose and then fell, showing an overall weak and volatile trend. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. Geopolitical disturbances provided support for the oil price at the beginning of the week, while the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and the expectation of supply surplus put pressure on the oil price [8]. - It is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $56 - 61 per barrel [9]. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement and refined oil entering the off - season of demand [11]. Macro Analysis - The US and Russia are discussing a framework plan to end the conflict. The plan requires Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia, but the Russian side says it has not received relevant information through official channels. Ukrainian President Zelensky has received a peace plan draft from the US [12]. - The discussion of the framework plan for ending the conflict between the US and Russia makes the market expect the US to relax sanctions on the Russian energy sector, which drives the oil price down. However, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [12]. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of the week ending November 14, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day. Since August, US crude oil production has rebounded month - on - month, and there is still a probability of further increase [13]. - As of the week ending November 14, the total number of US oil rigs was 417, the same as the previous value. It is expected to remain at a low level this year due to factors such as the contraction of US oil capital expenditure, the decline of resource grade, and policy adjustment [15]. Demand - As of the week ending November 14, the operating rate of US refineries was 90%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, indicating that US refineries have ended the seasonal maintenance phase and are expected to drive the recovery of crude oil consumption [17]. - As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil implied demand decreased by 843,000 barrels per day month - on - month, while the implied demand for motor gasoline production increased by 189,000 barrels per day [24]. - In October, the operating rate of 16 European refineries was 80.74%, a 3 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, and it is expected to recover by the end of the fourth quarter [25]. - As of November 20, the operating rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a 2.62 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period, entering the seasonal maintenance phase. The operating rate of domestic independent refineries was 62.97%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [30]. - As of November 21, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 854.72 yuan per ton, a 150.6 - yuan increase from the previous statistical period. The comprehensive refining profit of domestic independent refineries was 183.13 yuan per ton, a 6.54 - yuan increase from the previous period [35]. Inventory - As of the week ending November 14, the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.426 million barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 533,000 barrels. The decrease in US crude oil production and the increase in refinery operating rate led to a month - on - month decrease in EIA crude oil inventory [42]. - As of the week ending November 14, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 698,000 barrels, and the EIA gasoline inventory increased by 2.327 million barrels [46]. Crack Spread - As of November 19, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, US Gulf, was $24.47 per barrel, showing a month - on - month decline. Downstream consumer demand is still relatively strong, which supports the crack spread to some extent [47]. Future Market Judgment - The expectation of crude oil supply surplus remains the main pressure source in the market. In the short term, the oil price may continue to be under pressure. Although the oil price is expected to show an overall weak and volatile pattern, considering the repeatability of geopolitics, the sustainability of the geopolitical easing drive is not strong [51].

Report Summary - The report is a weekly crude oil report from AVIC Futures dated November 14, 2025 [2] - This week, oil prices first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile and weak trend. The influencing factors of crude oil are mixed. Geopolitical disturbances provided support for oil prices at the beginning of the week, but the OPEC monthly report's shift in market expectations from tight to surplus intensified concerns about oversupply, causing sharp price fluctuations. In the short term, the expectation of oversupply is the main pressure on the market, but OPEC+'s suspension of the production increase plan for the first quarter of next year, strong demand, and geopolitical uncertainties provide support. The report expects crude oil to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [7] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $57 - 62 per barrel [8] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors include geopolitical disturbances [10] - Bearish factors include the shift in OPEC market expectations and EIA inventory accumulation [10] Macroeconomic Analysis OPEC Report - OPEC's latest monthly report on November 12 shows that the global crude oil market expectation has shifted from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC supply growth expectations for this year are raised by 110,000 barrels per day, and the demand for OPEC crude in 2026 is lowered, indicating a pessimistic view on next year's demand [11] - In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+'s production was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September, showing a slowdown in the pace of OPEC+ production increase [11] - The global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day, and for 2026 is 1.38 million barrels per day. From January to September this year, global oil inventories increased by 304 million barrels, with about 156 million barrels being marine crude oil [11] Geopolitical Situation - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with large - scale attacks on Ukrainian military and energy facilities. Short - term negotiations are unlikely as Russia is ready for talks but Ukraine has stopped relevant dialogues until the end of this year [12] - The US - Venezuela relationship remains uncertain, with the Trump administration not planning to launch an attack in Venezuela currently [12] - The global geopolitical situation is complex and uncertain. Although it has not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply in the short term, it affects market sentiment and increases oil price volatility [12] Data Analysis Supply Side - As of the week ending November 7, US domestic crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 211,000 barrels. There is a probability of further increase in production, and supply pressure will gradually emerge as the peak consumption season for refined oil ends [13] - As of the week ending November 7, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 414, the same as the previous value. Due to factors such as capital expenditure contraction, resource grade decline, and policy adjustment, it is expected to remain at a low level this year [15] Demand Side - As of the week ending October 31, the US refinery utilization rate was 86%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The decline rate has slowed down, and it may reach a seasonal inflection point [18] - As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil demand decreased by 843,000 barrels per day week - on - week, while gasoline demand increased by 189,000 barrels per day [22] - In September, the refinery utilization rate of 16 European countries was 82.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.48 percentage points, and it is expected to face downward pressure at the beginning of the fourth quarter [24] - As of November 13, the operating rate of domestic state - owned refineries was 78.31%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from the previous period, entering the seasonal maintenance stage. The operating rate of local independent refineries was 61.97%, a decrease of 0.97 percentage points. The operating rate of state - owned refineries is expected to decline, while local refineries are expected to operate stably [30] - As of November 14, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic state - owned refineries was 704.12 yuan/ton, a recovery of 175.13 yuan/ton from the previous period, ending the continuous decline. The comprehensive refining profit of local independent refineries was 176.59 yuan/ton, a recovery of 41.64 yuan/ton [34] Inventory - As of the week ending November 7, the US EIA crude oil inventory was 6.413 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 1.96 million barrels and the previous value of 5.202 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 798,000 barrels, compared with the previous value of 498,000 barrels. EIA crude oil inventory may reach a phased inflection point [41] - As of the week ending November 7, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 346,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory was 205 million barrels, a decrease of 9.4 million barrels from the previous period [46] Crack Spread - As of November 12, the crack spread of low - sulfur crude oil in Louisiana, US Gulf was $24.76 per barrel, showing a continuous increase. It indicates that although the refinery utilization rate has decreased, downstream consumption demand is still strong, which supports the crack spread. Attention should be paid to whether refineries will increase the utilization rate due to profit incentives [47] Market Outlook - The factors influencing crude oil remain mixed. OPEC+'s suspension of the production increase plan, geopolitical factors, and shale oil costs support the market, but OPEC's market expectation shift intensifies concerns about oversupply. The market lacks a clear driving force and is expected to continue a wide - range volatile trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $57 - 62 per barrel [51]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail prices of refined oil in China have been reduced for the eighth time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, leading to lower costs for consumers and logistics companies [1][2][3]. Price Adjustment Summary - The recent price adjustment results in a decrease of approximately 0.06 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel. This year, there have been 20 rounds of price adjustments, including 6 increases, 6 pauses, and 8 decreases [2][3]. - For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up will cost 3 yuan less, while for large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by 2.4 yuan [3]. Market Trends - Market analysts expect a high probability of further price reductions in the next round of adjustments due to the overall weak demand in the refined oil market [4]. - During the current price adjustment cycle, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have shown a downward trend, with limited replenishment intentions from downstream industries [5][6]. Demand and Supply Analysis - The demand for gasoline has weakened as consumers return to regular commuting, while diesel demand remains sluggish due to adverse weather conditions affecting outdoor work [6]. - Analysts suggest that while diesel demand may see some improvement due to upcoming logistics activities, gasoline prices are likely to remain under pressure without significant holiday demand [7]. International Oil Price Dynamics - The international crude oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production plans, but later declining as geopolitical premiums receded [8][9]. - Current market conditions indicate a cautious growth in global oil supply, with expectations of oversupply reinforcing downward pressure on oil prices [9][10].