证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业周报 "双支柱"加强促进银行稳健经营 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | | % | 1 | 个月 | 3 | 个月 | 12 | 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -0.6 | | -3.4 | | | -3.1 | | 绝对收益 | -1.5 | | -0.6 | | | 13.8 | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号中 国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 央行推动完善双支柱体系，促进提升银行经营稳健性 2. 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 行业评级：增持（维持） 央行行长潘功胜发表署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面 的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to support high-quality financial development and the establishment of a financial power in China [3][4][5]. Group 1: Importance of Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Management - The dual objectives of maintaining currency stability and financial stability are foundational for the central bank's macro-management tools [4]. - The construction of these systems is essential for adapting to changes in social contradictions and promoting high-quality development [4][5]. - The need for a robust monetary policy and macro-prudential management framework is highlighted as a response to the complexities of the current economic environment [5][6]. Group 2: Building a Scientific and Robust Monetary Policy System - The monetary policy system aims to achieve a balance between currency stability, economic growth, full employment, and international balance of payments [7]. - Key tasks include optimizing the mechanism for basic currency issuance, improving market-based interest rate formation, and enhancing the structural monetary policy tool system [9][10]. - The focus is on maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals and ensuring effective financing for the real economy [9][10]. Group 3: Comprehensive Macro-Prudential Management System - The macro-prudential management system aims to monitor and assess systemic financial risks and implement preventive measures [11][12]. - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to cover macroeconomic operations, financial markets, and systemically important financial institutions [12][13]. - The system should also address external economic and financial market risks, ensuring resilience against external shocks [12][13]. Group 4: Key Tasks for Macro-Prudential Management - Strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks is crucial for proactive risk management [13][14]. - Implementing risk prevention measures in key sectors and enhancing the regulatory framework for systemically important financial institutions are essential [14][15]. - The article calls for a rich toolbox of macro-prudential policy instruments to address various financial challenges effectively [15][16].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system as strategic measures for promoting high-quality financial development and building a financial powerhouse during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][5][6]. - It highlights that the dual objectives of maintaining currency stability and financial stability are foundational tools for the central bank's macro-management, which are essential for achieving the goals of modernizing the economy [5][6][7]. Group 2 - The construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system is deemed necessary for accelerating the establishment of a high-level socialist market economy, addressing unbalanced and insufficient development, and supporting high-quality development [5][6][8]. - The article outlines the need for a well-structured monetary policy framework that includes optimizing the mechanism for basic currency issuance and maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates [10][11]. Group 3 - The macro-prudential management system aims to observe, assess, and respond to financial risks from a macro and counter-cyclical perspective, preventing systemic financial risks that could disrupt macroeconomic stability [12][13]. - It stresses the importance of monitoring systemic financial risks and implementing preventive measures to ensure the stability of key financial institutions and markets [15][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to establish a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system as strategic measures for promoting high-quality financial development and building a strong financial nation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1][2][3] Group 2 - The construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system is essential for maintaining currency stability, economic growth, full employment, and balance of international payments [5][6] - The relationship between short-term and long-term economic needs must be balanced through various monetary policy tools to smooth economic fluctuations [6][7] - The importance of enhancing the efficiency of fund allocation and ensuring the health of financial institutions while supporting economic growth is highlighted [6][9] Group 3 - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system aims to observe, assess, and respond to financial risks from a macro and counter-cyclical perspective [9][10] - The need to strengthen monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, focusing on key areas such as cross-border capital flows and real estate markets, is emphasized [11][12] - The construction of a financial stability guarantee system is crucial for reinforcing risk management and governance within financial institutions [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of establishing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system as strategic measures for promoting high-quality financial development and building a financial powerhouse during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2][3]. Group 2 - The construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system is essential for maintaining the stability of currency value and financial stability, which are the dual objectives of the central bank [2][3]. - The need for a high-level socialist market economy system requires further improvement of the dual pillar system to balance economic growth, structural adjustment, and systemic financial risk prevention [2][3]. - The transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development necessitates enhancing the robustness of financial institutions and markets, thereby improving the quality of financial services to the real economy [3][4]. Group 3 - The monetary policy system and macro-prudential management system are core components of the modern central bank system, which need to be mutually supportive and complementary [4]. - The 2008 financial crisis highlighted that price stability does not equate to financial stability, necessitating the construction of a macro-prudential management system to prevent systemic financial risks [4][5]. - The dual pillar system has been preliminarily established in China, with monetary policy being relatively mature while macro-prudential management requires further refinement [4][5]. Group 4 - The main tasks for constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system include optimizing the mechanism for basic currency issuance and monetary supply regulation, enhancing the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, and improving the structural monetary policy tool system [7][8][9]. - The focus should be on maintaining reasonable growth of financial totals while ensuring the effective financing needs of the real economy are met [7][8]. - Continuous improvement of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is necessary to maintain exchange rate flexibility and prevent excessive fluctuations [9]. Group 5 - The comprehensive macro-prudential management system aims to observe, assess, and respond to financial risks from a macro and counter-cyclical perspective, preventing systemic financial risks that could destabilize the macroeconomic environment [11][12]. - The system should cover the interconnections between macroeconomic operations and financial risks, as well as the key areas of financial markets and activities [11][12]. - Strengthening the monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks is crucial, focusing on key areas such as cross-border capital flows and the real estate market [13][14]. Group 6 - The construction of a financial stability guarantee system is essential, which includes enhancing corporate governance and risk management of financial institutions, and ensuring effective early warning mechanisms for financial risks [15]. - The financial security capabilities should align with the level of openness in the financial sector, ensuring the safety of critical financial institutions and foreign exchange reserves [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The freight rate market is currently highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended that investors exercise caution, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC2512 closed at 1851.700, down 30.2; EC2602 closed at 1592.2, up 8.5. The spread between EC2512 - EC2602 was 259.50, up 9.10; the spread between EC2512 - EC2604 was 667.30, up 24.40. The EC contract basis was -538.99, down 47.70. The EC main contract open interest was 29320, down 2045 [1]. Spot Market Data - The SCFIS (European Line) was 1208.71, down 104.00 week - on - week; the SCFIS (US West Line) was 1107.32, up 159.83 week - on - week. The SCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1550.70, up 147.24 week - on - week. The CCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1021.39, up 28.65 week - on - week; the CCFI (European Line) was 1323.81, up 30.69 week - on - week. The Baltic Dry Index was 1966.00, up 17.00 day - on - day; the Panamax Freight Index was 1821.00, up 28.00 day - on - day. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 23368.00, down 882.00 [1]. Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system", including optimizing the base money supply mechanism, improving the market - oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, etc. [1] - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded positively [1]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung - gun to discuss maintaining the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain and strengthening regional and multilateral cooperation [1]. Market Analysis - The freight rate support has weakened as the latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index decreased by 104 points week - on - week, a 7.9% decline. However, mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November, and Maersk's successful price support in mid - to - late October has boosted market confidence [1]. - The container handling business at the Port of Rotterdam has come to a complete standstill, increasing regional supply chain uncertainties. The positive results of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have improved the market's expectations for the trade war situation [1]. - Geopolitically, there are attempts to start cease - fire negotiations, but the external mediation is at a deadlock. The eurozone economy shows resilience, and the German investor confidence index is expected to continue to improve in November [1]. Key Data to Watch - On November 4, the release of the US September trade balance (in billions of dollars) and the US September factory orders month - on - month rate are to be determined [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Economic fundamentals' continuous recovery and the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term rates down. However, the potential upward pressure on long - term rates due to a rise in risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL are the main contracts of 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and ultra - long - term (TL) treasury bond futures respectively. T's closing price rose 0.01% to 108.680, with a trading volume of 65,902 (down 276). TF's closing price fell 0.01% to 106.050, with a trading volume of 52,682 (up 1,537). TS's closing price fell 0.03% to 102.516, with a trading volume of 24,640 (down 6,201). TL's closing price fell 0.11% to 116.510, with a trading volume of 98,827 (down 4,923) [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes. For example, the TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.24 (down 0.02), and the T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.83 (up 0.17) [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T's main position increased by 1,313 to 243,868. TF's main position increased by 1,862 to 151,286. TS's main position decreased by 1,209 to 71,166. TL's main position decreased by 4,976 to 137,774 [2]. 2. Cash Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed. For example, the net price of 220017.IB (4y) rose 0.0332 to 106.7458, while the net price of 250018.IB (4y) fell 0.0417 to 99.0955 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: Yields of active treasury bonds showed different trends. The 1 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.38%, the 3 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.41%, the 5 - year yield rose 0.75bp to 1.53%, the 7 - year yield fell 0.75bp to 1.63%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1.00bp to 1.7925% [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates declined. The overnight silver - pledged repo rate fell 3.99bp to 1.3101%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate fell 6.00bp to 1.4000% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The issuance scale was 783 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 3373 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 2590 billion yuan. The interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 5. Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The central bank governor detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system". The finance minister proposed measures for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including using special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, optimizing income distribution, and dealing with local government debt [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On November 3 at 23:00, the US October ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. On November 5 at 21:15, the US October ADP employment data (in ten thousand people) will be released [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market information. It shows that the economy has both positive and negative factors, such as the mixed performance of PMI data, the upward trend of some metal prices, and the complex situation in the energy and agricultural markets. At the same time, various policy regulations and market reforms are also underway, which will have an impact on different sectors [1][2][5][16]. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In Q3 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2%. In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - In September 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 7.2% and 8.4% year - on - year respectively, with M1 significantly higher than the previous year's - 3.3%. The CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year [1]. - In September 2025, exports and imports increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, showing strong foreign trade performance [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - In October 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI entered the expansion range. In 2026, the export quota management of phosphate rock and silver will be suspended, and export license management will be implemented [2]. - The soybean meal and corn series option contracts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange will be listed for trading on February 2, 2026. The China Futures Association has issued the "Futures Market - Making Transaction Business Management Rules" [2]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration have issued a gold tax policy, exempting value - added tax for standard gold transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange under certain conditions [3]. Metals - London's basic metals mostly rose. Due to the tight supply of copper ore and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, copper prices are on an upward trend. The price of LME copper has reached a record high [5]. - In Q3 2025, the global gold demand reached 1313 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase, and the demand value soared 44% to $146 billion, both hitting single - quarter records [5]. - As of October 30, 2025, the aluminum, tin, and nickel inventories in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the lead inventory reached a new low [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's steel production and consumption continued to decline, with the decline in consumption greater than that in production. The average CSPI in the first three quarters was 93.6 points, a 9.64% year - on - year decrease [7]. - As of October 27, 2025, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants was 2.2 billion tons, sufficient for over 35 days. The underground gas storage has completed the annual gas injection task [8]. Energy and Chemicals - The main contract of US crude oil rose. OPEC + members are inclined to slightly increase oil production in December. Turkey's refineries are buying more non - Russian oil [10]. - In October 2025, Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to Europe increased by 5% month - on - month, and its LNG exports in October increased by 21% [10]. Agricultural Products - In October 2025, Ukraine's grain exports decreased from 3.7 million tons in October 2024 to 2.5 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture will release multiple key agricultural reports in November [13][14]. - Poland will maintain the import ban on some Ukrainian agricultural products [14]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On October 31, 2025, the central bank conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 187.1 billion yuan on that day. This week, 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [15]. Important News and Information - The central bank governor proposed to optimize the basic currency issuance mechanism and the intermediate variables of monetary policy. The finance minister pointed out that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be used to boost consumption and resolve local government debt [16][17]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated 200 billion yuan of new special bond quotas from the 500 billion yuan local government debt balance limit. The National Bureau of Statistics released the October PMI data [17]. - The CSRC and the Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds, aiming to standardize the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds [18]. Bond Market Summary - The sentiment in the inter - bank bond market was positive, with long - term bonds performing better. The prices of treasury bond futures rose, and the yields of secondary and perpetual bonds declined [23]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds such as "23 Tai Cai Yuan" rose significantly, while some bonds such as "25 Gong Tou 1A" fell [24]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1135 on October 31, 2025, down 28 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.18% [28]. Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed - Income analyzed the convertible bond holdings of fixed - income + funds in Q3 2025, indicating that the proportion of convertible bonds held by public funds continued to reach new highs, but the overall position of fixed - income + products decreased [29]. - CITIC Securities believed that the expansion of the pilot area for pension wealth management products to the whole country will promote the improvement of the multi - level pension insurance system [29]. Stock Market Important News - After the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points, the A - share market fluctuated and adjusted last week. Institutions suggest investors start to layout low - valued sectors with expected profit recovery [33]. - As of October 31, 2025, 5446 domestic listed companies disclosed their Q3 reports, with a total operating income of 53.46 trillion yuan and a net profit of 4.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.36% and 5.5% respectively [33]. - Many foreign - funded public funds have performed well this year, and fund managers are still optimistic about the allocation value of high - quality technology, manufacturing, and resource - related assets in the fourth quarter [34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability in global supply chains and expresses concern over the Dutch government's interference in corporate affairs, which has contributed to current disruptions [2]. Group 1: Government Response - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has previously addressed concerns regarding Anshi Semiconductor and welcomes companies facing difficulties to reach out for assistance [2]. - The Ministry will consider the actual circumstances of companies and may grant exemptions for exports that meet certain conditions [2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The interference by the Dutch government is highlighted as a factor leading to chaos in the global supply chain, indicating potential risks for companies operating internationally [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that a U.S.-China trade agreement could be signed as early as next week, with China expressing willingness to work with the U.S. to implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state [1] - The public fund industry in China, valued at over 36 trillion yuan, is undergoing significant reforms, including guidelines for performance benchmarks that may lead to reduced compensation for fund managers whose long-term performance falls below benchmarks [1] Group 2 - The State Council is focusing on deepening reforms in key areas and expanding institutional openness, aiming to enhance market access and optimize regulatory frameworks for factor markets [2] - The People's Bank of China is working on optimizing the monetary policy framework and addressing market "herding effects," while also preparing policy tools to respond to macroeconomic and financial market fluctuations [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize special bonds and long-term government bonds effectively to encourage private capital participation in major projects and improve income distribution [2] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that 2 trillion yuan of the 5 trillion yuan local government debt limit will be allocated for new special bonds to support investment in certain provinces [3] - China's manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.1 [3] - A new action plan for smart city development aims to establish over 50 fully digital transformation cities by the end of 2027 [3] Group 4 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is emphasizing the need for a more inclusive and adaptable capital market system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] - The CSRC has taken a strict stance against misinformation in the capital market, reinforcing a "zero tolerance" policy towards false information dissemination [5] - A-shares experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.81% at 3954.79 points, while small-cap stocks saw a rebound [6] Group 5 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.43%, with technology stocks continuing to struggle, while healthcare stocks performed well [6] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for listed companies in Q3, with significant growth in mergers and acquisitions since the introduction of new policies [6] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced an expansion of the "Southbound ETF Connect" list, increasing the number of ETFs available for trading [7] Group 6 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is reforming the real estate development and sales system to prevent delivery risks and protect buyers' rights [10] - The top 100 real estate companies in China reported a sales amount of 253 billion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 41.9% [10] - The China Automotive Dealers Association reported an increase in the inventory warning index for October, indicating improved conditions in the automotive circulation industry [11]