高端装备半月谈-12 月份重要观点更新 20251207 摘要 杰瑞股份新增海外订单抵消俄罗斯业务影响，未来两年盈利预测保持稳 定。股价上涨主要由估值驱动，从 2026 年的 15 倍 PE 上升至 20 倍左 右。 杰瑞股份数据中心燃气轮机发电机组业务增长空间巨大，北美市场需求 量级在 10 至 20 吉瓦，市场规模达 1,000 至 2000 亿元人民币。产能扩 张至 2026 年底预计达 200 兆瓦，但增长受限于机头供应稳定性，正与 西门子、贝克休斯等洽谈合作。 美国可能重启国家级机器人战略，重点关注特斯拉及其 Figure AI 链、 电商仓储物流机器人，以及中国和日本作为硬件参与企业或系统集成端 的潜在受益。 特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人采用视频提取数据策略，加速数据采集规 模化，降低成本，提高训练效率。硬件方面，灵巧手探索陶瓷球替代钢 丝球，电机散热优化考虑氮化镓材料。 AI PCB 推动电镀技术升级，用铜量显著提升，传统直流电镀逐步发展为 脉冲电镀，对铜粉的粒径分布和溶解效率提出更高要求，加工费用也随 之增加。 Q&A 如何看待杰瑞股份近期获得的北美数据中心燃气轮机发电机组订单及其对公司 ...

Core Insights - The commercial space industry is rapidly evolving, with a clear short to medium-term outlook driven by the deployment of large satellite constellations for internet connectivity and other applications [1][2] - China's commercial rocket companies are facing challenges in launching satellites due to insufficient rocket capacity and the need for large, cost-effective, and reliable rockets [1][3] - The upcoming launch of China's new generation of large liquid reusable rockets is highly anticipated, as reusability is key to reducing launch costs [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The satellite internet infrastructure is seen as a strategic asset for nations, with various countries planning large-scale low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations [2][3] - The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has established rules that require operators to launch satellites within specific timeframes to secure frequency and orbital positions, creating pressure on satellite deployment [2][3] - China's "Qianfan Constellation" and "National Grid Constellation" are set to begin network deployment in 2024, but their launch cadence is currently lagging behind SpaceX's Starlink [2][3] Group 2: Technical Challenges - The core issue in the industry is the urgent need for satellite launches while facing a significant shortage of rocket capacity [3][4] - Current rockets used for satellite launches are also tasked with other national missions, leading to tight schedules and delays in satellite deployment [3][4] - The industry consensus is that the true mass deployment of satellite internet will depend on the involvement of commercial rockets to meet the launch demand [3][4] Group 3: Reusability and Cost Reduction - SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket exemplifies the benefits of high-frequency, low-cost launches enabled by reusability, with plans for 132 launches in 2024 [4][5] - Domestic companies are following SpaceX's lead in developing large liquid reusable rockets, but progress varies among different firms [5][6] - Achieving cost reduction through reusability requires a systematic approach involving rapid turnaround and operational efficiency, rather than relying on single technological breakthroughs [5][6] Group 4: Future Development Strategies - Experts suggest a dual-track approach to bridge short-term needs with mid-term goals, focusing on scaling production and operationalizing reusability [9] - The first track emphasizes maximizing production capacity to meet urgent satellite deployment needs, while the second track aims to establish a sustainable process for rocket reuse [9][10] - A successful launch of new rockets is seen as a critical step towards achieving stability and reliability in the commercial space sector [7][8]