2026 年 02 月 12 日 合成橡胶：节前震荡运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 13,020 198,743 | 12,860 195,331 | 160 3412 | | | （03合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 24,037 | 25,458 | -1421 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,288,417 | 1,261,013 | 27404 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -420 | -260 | -160 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -225 | -80 | -145 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 12,350 | 12,300 | | | | | 华东顺丁 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is rated as "1", which means it is "strong" in the range of [-2, 2], indicating a relatively bullish view [3] Core View of the Report - In the short term, with the macro - narrative of incremental funds overweighting the chemical sector, butadiene and butadiene rubber are expected to run strongly. The reasons are that the overall synthetic rubber industry chain has neutral spot trading volume, maintaining high apparent demand, and butadiene's strong short - term fundamentals push up the cost of synthetic rubber [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract), the daily closing price increased from 11,915 yuan/ton to 12,270 yuan/ton, a rise of 355 yuan/ton; the trading volume increased from 128,058 lots to 182,757 lots, an increase of 54,699 lots; the open interest increased from 93,726 lots to 96,682 lots, a rise of 2,956 lots; the trading volume increased from 750,670 ten - thousand yuan to 1,104,674 ten - thousand yuan, a rise of 354,004 ten - thousand yuan [1] Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract decreased from - 265 to - 420, a drop of 155; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 (private) decreased from - 100 to - 110, a drop of 10 [1] Spot Market - The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, Shandong, and the prices of butadiene styrene rubber (Qilu 1502, Qilu 1712), and butadiene (Jiangsu mainstream, Shandong mainstream) all increased. For example, the price of North China butadiene rubber increased from 11,300 yuan/ton to 11,550 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 74.599%. The theoretical full - cost of butadiene rubber increased from 12,388 yuan/ton to 12,697 yuan/ton, a rise of 309 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased from - 687 yuan/ton to - 697 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton [1] 2. Industry News - As of January 21, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%. The inventory of some sample producers increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] - On January 21, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons compared with the previous period, mainly due to limited arrival of imported ships and high operating rates of major downstream industries [2][3]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 6, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9150 (+200) RMB/ton; CIF China price is 975 (+0) USD/ton; the market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11750 (+100) RMB/ton, with a price difference of -3300 (-100) RMB/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber - Thai mix, and a basis difference of -80 (-85) RMB/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production was 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 144,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%; semi-steel tire production was 58.39 million units, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; full-steel tire production was 12.86 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - As of January 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 71.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.8%; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 77.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 66.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 57.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [2] Inventory Levels - As of January 2, butadiene port inventory was 44,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,400 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%; trader inventory was 7,180 tons, an increase of 1,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on January 6, a 50,000 tons/year unit at Maoming Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on January 5, expected to restart at the end of January; another 100,000 tons/year unit is currently under maintenance, expected to restart around January 21 [4] Market Analysis - On January 6, following the New Year holiday, the rubber sector showed a strong performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closing at 11,830 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous day's settlement price. From the cost side, three domestic butadiene units are expected to restart in the second half of January, with expectations of reduced net imports due to increased exports and decreased imports, but overall supply remains ample, and port inventory is expected to remain high. On the supply side, Maoming Petrochemical's styrene-butadiene rubber units will gradually restart, and the profit margins for styrene-butadiene rubber are favorable, with other units operating at high levels. On the demand side, tire and other rubber product industries are expected to have stable operating rates, although there may be some stocking demand before the Spring Festival, a concentrated shutdown may occur from late January to February. Overall, cost support is limited, and supply-demand dynamics are weakening, providing limited fundamental support for BR price increases, with attention needed on macroeconomic disturbances [5]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 5, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 8950 (+200) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 965 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical is 11650 (+50) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3200 (+0) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 5 (+25) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production was 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 144,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%; semi-steel tire production was 58.39 million units, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; full-steel tire production was 12.86 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [1] - As of January 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 71.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.8%; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 77.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 66.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 57.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [1] Inventory Levels - As of January 2, butadiene port inventory was 44,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,400 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%; trader inventory was 7,180 tons, an increase of 1,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.2% [2] Industry Insights - On January 5, following the New Year holiday, the rubber sector showed a strong performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closing at 11,645 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.82% compared to the previous day's settlement price [2] - Starting from the second half of January, three domestic butadiene facilities are expected to gradually restart, influenced by anticipated increases in exports and decreases in imports, which may lead to a reduction in net import volumes; however, overall supply is expected to remain ample, and port inventories are projected to stay at high levels [2] - The styrene-butadiene rubber facility at Maoming Petrochemical is expected to undergo maintenance and restart in mid to late January 2026 [2] - Demand from the tire and other rubber product industries is expected to remain stable, with some pre-Spring Festival stocking demand; however, a concentrated shutdown may occur from late January to February [2] - Overall, limited cost support and weakening supply-demand dynamics suggest significant resistance to price increases for BR in January, with attention needed on macroeconomic disturbances [2] Short-term Outlook - The short-term price range for BR2602 is expected to fluctuate between 11,200 and 12,000 CNY/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "neutral" view. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the price center of synthetic rubber moves up, and in the medium - term, it enters a volatile phase. The price of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may follow the upward trend of the oil product sector in the short - term due to the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the New Year's Day holiday. The current situation of butadiene is neutral with strong expectations. Cis - butadiene rubber has no obvious fundamental contradictions and mainly fluctuates with the cost side [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market of Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber 02 contract was 11,565 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the trading volume was 121,267 lots, down 30,873 lots; the open interest was 49,563 lots, down 9,640 lots; and the trading volume was 700.548 million yuan, down 183.493 million yuan [2]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber and the futures main contract was - 115 yuan, up 35 yuan; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 was - 65 yuan, down 35 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 yuan. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while that in Shandong increased by 50 yuan [2]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: The operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 78.8006%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 11,152 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 348 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. The price of cis - butadiene rubber increased due to cost support, and some production enterprises significantly reduced inventory [3]. - **Butadiene Inventory**: As of December 31, the inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 44,700 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous period. Importers expect a reduction in imports in January [3][4]. - **Short - term Market Outlook**: Due to the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the New Year's Day holiday, international energy prices may be strong. Butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may follow the upward trend of the oil product sector. The supply of domestic butadiene is at a high level, while the international supply is slightly reduced. The demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber remains high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The rating range is [-2, 2], where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, multiple factors including improved macro - sentiment and low valuation drive the synthetic rubber to rebound. In the medium - term, due to the weak demand in the rubber sector and sufficient supply of natural and synthetic rubber, the fundamental pressure is relatively high [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals have weak driving force for synthetic rubber. In the context of low valuation, the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (07 contract) increased from 10,960 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton; the trading volume rose from 99,659 lots to 159,507 lots; the open interest decreased by 1396 lots to 24,880 lots; and the trading value increased by 348,970 ten - thousand yuan to 897,361 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased from 440 to 350; the monthly spread (BR06 - BR07) dropped from 115 to 15. The prices of butadiene in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) increased by 250, 200, and 250 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 250 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) both increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 100 and 350 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 0.87% to 64.3305%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,285 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 685 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - **Butadiene Situation**: The Asian butadiene price is stable, and the domestic butadiene price fluctuates around 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton. The butadiene industry operating rate is still high year - on - year but has decreased month - on - month due to ethylene plant maintenance. Short - term import arrivals have increased. The butadiene procurement volume of butadiene rubber has declined, while the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS remains. The inventory of butadiene producers has slightly increased, and the port inventory has decreased. Overall, butadiene has rigid demand at low prices but lacks fundamental driving force, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [3]. - **Butadiene Rubber Situation**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber is approaching the break - even point. The supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year but decline month - on - month. The apparent demand of butadiene rubber remains high this week, and the substitution demand supports the total demand. The butadiene rubber inventory is continuously at a high level year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Market**: In the short - term, on Thursday, the macro - sentiment improved due to the Sino - US leaders' call, driving the rubber sector to rebound at a low - valuation level. Butadiene rubber, as a low - valuation variety in the rubber sector and with the requirement of warrant cancellation on June 30, had a large rebound. In the medium - term, the main contradiction in the market is the weak demand in the rubber sector, leading to a downward fundamental driving force [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a neutral view on the industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals currently have a neutral driving force on synthetic rubber. Although there is no significant upward or downward driving force in the fundamentals, the valuation provides some support for the price due to the lack of obvious inventory accumulation and the improvement in apparent demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber (BR) main contract (06 contract) decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 11,370 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 14,549 lots to 106,954 lots, the open interest decreased by 1,070 lots to 24,034 lots, and the trading value decreased by 85.122 million yuan to 603.27 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong BR - futures main contract decreased by 45 to 230, and the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 (private) increased by 115 to 80 [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong BR (deliverable) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,600 yuan/ton. The prices of BR in North China, East China, and South China (private) remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) (types 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of BR remained unchanged at 74.2678%, the theoretical full - cost of BR remained unchanged at 11,873 yuan/ton, and the profit of BR remained unchanged at - 173 yuan/ton [1] 3.2. Industry News - **Butadiene Situation**: The price of Asian butadiene remained stable, and the domestic butadiene fundamentals improved with support around 9,000 yuan/ton. The operating rate of the butadiene industry was still at a high level year - on - year but decreased month - on - month due to the centralized maintenance of some ethylene plants. Short - term import arrivals were limited. The demand from BR for butadiene increased, and the rigid demand from SBR, ABS, and SBS for butadiene was maintained. The inventory of butadiene producers decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [1][3] - **Butadiene Rubber Situation**: With the decline in the cost side, the processing profit of BR increased, and the operating rate of the supply side was expected to increase. The apparent demand for BR increased significantly, and the substitution demand supported the total demand for BR. The inventory was at a high level year - on - year, and the fundamentals were in a neutral pattern [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view on the industry trend [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of synthetic rubber currently have a neutral driving force, but due to the lack of significant inventory accumulation of butadiene rubber, the spot price has support at the valuation level after a sharp decline [1][3] - Although the fundamentals of butadiene rubber have no driving force, due to its relatively low valuation, the downward support has increased [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (06 contract) was 11,375 yuan/ton, with a volume of 121,503 lots, an open interest of 25,104 lots, and a turnover of 688.392 million yuan. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 60 yuan/ton, the volume increased by 7,538 lots, the open interest decreased by 639 lots, and the turnover increased by 48.626 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 was -35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (deliverable product) was 11,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged; the mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 250 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate was 74.2678%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points compared with the previous day; the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,873 yuan/ton, and the profit was -173 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - **Butadiene Situation**: The price of Asian butadiene remained stable, and the domestic butadiene fundamentals improved. The operating rate of the butadiene industry was still at a high level year - on - year, but decreased month - on - month due to the centralized maintenance of some ethylene plants. Short - term import arrivals were limited. The demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber increased, and the rigid demand from styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS was maintained. The inventory of butadiene production enterprises decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [1][3] - **Butadiene Rubber Situation**: With the decline of the cost side and the increase of processing profit, the operating rate of the supply side is expected to increase. The apparent demand for butadiene rubber has significantly strengthened, and the substitution demand still supports the total demand. The current fundamentals are in a neutral pattern, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals currently provide neutral support for synthetic rubber. Although there is no significant upward driver, due to the relatively low valuation after a sharp decline, the downside support has increased, and it will mainly move in a range in the short - term. Future trends depend on the fluctuations of crude oil and the rubber sector [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber (BR) main contract, the daily closing price was 11,335 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 182,590 lots, an increase from 150,950 lots the day before; the open interest was 42,499 lots, up 769 lots; and the trading volume was 1.035589 billion yuan, an increase of 193.017 million yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong BR - futures main contract was 365 yuan, the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 (private) was 65 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The prices of North China, East China, and South China BR (private) remained unchanged at 11,450 yuan, 11,550 yuan, and 11,650 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong BR (delivery product) remained at 11,700 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) models 1502 and 1712 remained at 12,000 yuan and 11,000 yuan respectively [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 300 yuan and 200 yuan respectively, reaching 9,250 yuan and 9,450 yuan [1]. 3.1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 72.2629%, up 0.87 percentage points; the theoretical full cost was 11,873 yuan/ton, up 309 yuan; the profit was - 173 yuan/ton, down 309 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry News 3.2.1 Butadiene Market - The price of Asian butadiene rebounded slightly, and the domestic butadiene fundamentals improved, with support at around 8,800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of the butadiene industry remained high, but the expectation of increased maintenance volume rose due to the weakening of ethylene cracking profits. Short - term import arrivals were limited. Demand from butadiene rubber increased, and the rigid demand from SBR, ABS, and SBS remained. Inventories at production enterprises and ports decreased, and the short - term port inventory was expected to show a de - stocking pattern, strengthening price support [1][4]. 3.2.2 Butadiene Rubber Market - On the supply side, as the cost decreased and processing profit increased, the operating rate was expected to rise. On the demand side, the apparent demand increased significantly, and substitution demand supported the total demand. The inventory was at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the fundamentals were neutral, providing support for the price after the previous sharp decline [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].