成橡胶期货日报 成文日期: 20250930 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:合成橡厂 研究员：何宁 （从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250930）合成橡胶期货震荡下跌。其中合成橡胶 2511 (BR2511) 开盘价 11325 元/吨, 最高价 11335 元/吨, 最低价 11100 元/吨,收盘价 11100 元/吨,较上一个交易日结算价下跌 185 元/吨, 跌幅 1.64%，成交量 11 万手，较上日减少 4.78 万手，持仓量 3.32 万手,较上目减少 5336 手。 图 1：合成橡胶 2511（BR2511）分时图 1.2 品种价格 表 1：合成橡胶期货日行情表 20250930 | 合约名称 | 开盘 最高 【 最低 最新 涨跌 涨幅% 成交量 持仓量 | | --- | --- | | BR橡胶2510 == | 11375 11375 | | BR橡胶2511ª 11325 11335 11100 11100 -185 -1.64% 110443 33214 | | | BR橡胶2512 | | | BR橡胶 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Synthetic rubber [1] - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of report: September 18, 2025 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, with supply, inventory, and cost factors influencing the market. Future price movements depend on pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 18, 2025, synthetic rubber fluctuated and declined. The BR2511 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton, reached a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,355 yuan/ton, and closed at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton or 1.76% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 116,100 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 74,500 lots, an increase of 7,604 lots [2] - **Variety price**: The BR2510 contract opened at 11,610 yuan/ton with a high of 11,660 yuan/ton; the BR2512 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton with a high of 11,590 yuan/ton; the BR2601 contract opened at 11,605 yuan/ton, closed at 11,440 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.59%, with a trading volume of 19,247 lots and an open interest of 22,233 lots [4] - **Spot price**: On September 18, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market decreased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Some arbitrage resources had lower prices, and the mainstream supply price was affected [5] 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry information**: As of September 17, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous period. However, trader inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and there is still pressure on total social inventory. Butadiene port inventory has dropped to 25,600 tons, but 50,000 tons of shipments are expected to arrive in October, weakening cost - side support [6] - **Policy and market dynamics**: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 18, China's rubber tire exports in August were 870,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase [6] 4.3 Market Outlook - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities. Although there are disruptions in the natural rubber tapping process due to rainfall and high raw material prices, the spot trading sentiment has weakened. Supply and inventory pressures dominate the market. The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, and future price movements need to pay attention to pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【8月25日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格或探涨但幅度受限】上周五，国内高顺顺丁橡胶市场现货价格偏弱运 行。华北、华东地区BR9000市场价格在11525 - 11650元/吨附近，华南地区为11600 - 11650元/吨。合成 橡胶期货价格区间整理，顺丁市场现货持货商报盘多让价，部分牌号惜售。 顺丁橡胶现货供应补充， 买盘刚需询盘，交投重心窄幅回落。预计近日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格偏强。今日原料丁二烯价格区间整 理，胶价与成本价差偏窄，价格底部支撑仍存。期货夜盘拉涨提振现货交投，持货商成本偏高，报盘重 心偏强。 不过，市场货源供应充裕，下游轮胎产能释放不足，原料采买观望，压价商谈为主，基本面 承压。预计今日现货市场价格探涨，但幅度受限。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market is slightly bullish with oscillations, while in the medium - term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The low - valuation of cis - butadiene rubber makes the market less willing to short. This is due to the long - term policy orientation of "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization supporting the overall commodity valuation, and the neutral fundamentals of the rubber and butadiene sectors. There are short - term speculative rallies at the lower end of the fundamental valuation, but limited upside in the medium - term due to lack of fundamental upward drivers [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract) was 11,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 41,370 lots, a decrease of 18,741 lots; the open interest was 25,625 lots, a decrease of 831 lots; and the trading volume was 237.957 million yuan, a decrease of 107.947 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 35 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 105 yuan, an increase of 175 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The price of North China private cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the prices of East China and South China private cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton; the market price of Shandong delivery - grade cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton and 9,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.6381%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit was - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - **Production**: This week, the output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.29 percentage points. Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week. It is expected that Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda's cis - butadiene rubber plants will restart next week, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber will increase [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025 (week 32), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Although some production plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week, the inventory of sample production enterprises increased due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream customers and slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Price and Market Trends - As of July 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9350 (-150) CNY/ton, while the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1100 (+0) USD/ton [1] - The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong is 11900 (-250) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2700 (-150) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 65 (-130) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, down 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The operating rate for the butadiene industry is 70%, up 3% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.6%, up 5.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 23, butadiene port inventory is 15,700 tons, down 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 24,850 tons, down 800 tons, a decrease of 3.1% [3] - Trader inventory stands at 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons, up 13.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 29, Qixiang Tengda (002408) has its 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit operating normally, with plans for a 10-day maintenance shutdown in early August [4] Market Analysis - On July 29, commodity bullish sentiment has cooled, with BR continuing to decline; the main contract BR2509 closed at 11,835 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous settlement price [5] - Despite low port inventory supporting butadiene prices, multiple domestic facilities are set to restart, leading to an expected increase in butadiene supply [5] - Demand for tires remains weak, with high inventory levels hindering tire operating rates; overall, short-term cost support exists, but BR supply-demand is loose, limiting upward potential [5]

西南期货分析称，原料端，丁二烯价格回调，合成橡胶加工回正；供应端，中国高顺顺丁橡胶行业周度 产能利用率持稳在66%附近，同比处于偏高水平需求端，轮胎企业成品库存高企，出口订单受关税压 制，内需受制于基建投资放缓，购难有增量；库存端，厂家库存环比去库，同比处于偏高水平，贸易商 库存环比累库，同比处于偏高水平。总结：等待企稳参与反弹。 瑞达期货（002961）指出，近期原料丁二烯挺价出货阻力显现，顺丁胶成本面支撑减弱，叠加7月中下 旬国内多数顺丁检修装置重启，供应面存增加预期。上周宏观情绪提振下，主流供价一度明显走高，带 动顺丁胶生产企业库存下降，贸易企业库存小幅提升，本周部分装置重启后产能释放，国内供应预计增 加，而下游持续压价采购，等跌情绪或带动生产企业库存走高。需求方面，上周国内轮胎检修企业排产 逐步提升至常规水平，带动企业整体产能利用率恢复性提升，目前企业排产趋于平稳，中下旬订单存一 定上量，对整体开工仍存小幅带动预期，企业间多根据自身库存及订单情况，灵活调整生产，短期预计 开工率整体波动不大。br2509合约短线预计在11500-12000区间波动。 方正中期期货表示，成本端支撑走强，宏观及板块看涨情绪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing downward pressure due to increased social inventory and mixed market sentiment, despite some short-term strength expected from supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 23, the synthetic rubber futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 12,015.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,080.0 CNY before dropping to a low of 11,810.0 CNY, resulting in a decrease of 2.10% [1]. - The social inventory of synthetic rubber recorded 32,800 tons for the week ending May 21, an increase of 60 tons or 1.86% from the previous week [1]. - Over the past month, the cumulative increase in social inventory was 50 tons, reflecting a rise of 1.55% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecast - As of May 22, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 61,700 long positions and 64,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.95 and a net position of -3,181 contracts, which increased by 2,042 contracts compared to the previous day [1]. - Southwest Futures indicated that while supply pressure continues, demand is expected to improve due to easing tariff expectations and a significant rebound in costs, leading to a short-term bullish outlook, although the upward potential is limited [2]. - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals of synthetic rubber prices are primarily driven by supply and demand rather than external trade tensions, with recent maintenance season disruptions causing a spike in butadiene prices, which may not be sustainable [2].

Raw Materials and Spot Market - As of April 21, the price of high cis-butadiene rubber in Shandong, based on Daqing BR9000, closed at 11,450 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY/ton compared to the previous period, contrary to earlier expectations [1] - The trading atmosphere has slightly improved compared to last week, although most prices remain in a backwardation state [1] Production and Operating Rates - In March, China's butadiene production was 460,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.9%; the production of high cis-butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, up 14.8% month-on-month [2] - The operating rates for the butadiene industry were 74.1%, down 0.6%; for high cis-butadiene rubber, the rate was 62.8%, up 3.3% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 74.2%, down 0.3%, while for full-steel tire manufacturers, it was 67.4%, up 0.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of April 16, butadiene port inventory was 35,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the factory inventory of high cis-butadiene rubber was 27,710 tons, up 560 tons, a 2.1% increase [3] - The inventory held by traders was 4,370 tons, a decrease of 330 tons, down 7% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on April 21, Shandong Weite Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to restart its 50,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit within the week [4] Market Analysis - On April 21, the rubber sector rebounded along with commodities, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2505 closing at 11,195 CNY/ton, a rise of 1.77% [5] - The supply of butadiene remains ample, with two butadiene units scheduled for maintenance in late April, but new capacities from ExxonMobil and Wanhua are expected to supplement the market [5] - Demand for new orders is weak, compounded by high finished product inventories, leading to a decline in semi-steel tire operating rates and low full-steel tire operating rates [5] - Natural rubber production in Yunnan is normal, and the tapping process in Hainan is in line with seasonal expectations, with overall tapping expectations in Thailand remaining strong [5] - The ongoing "tariff war" adds to market uncertainty, which is expected to remain high [5] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation for short-term trading is to short BR2505 on rallies, with a short-term outlook indicating a downward trend [6]