本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【8月25日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格或探涨但幅度受限】上周五，国内高顺顺丁橡胶市场现货价格偏弱运 行。华北、华东地区BR9000市场价格在11525 - 11650元/吨附近，华南地区为11600 - 11650元/吨。合成 橡胶期货价格区间整理，顺丁市场现货持货商报盘多让价，部分牌号惜售。 顺丁橡胶现货供应补充， 买盘刚需询盘，交投重心窄幅回落。预计近日高顺顺丁橡胶市场价格偏强。今日原料丁二烯价格区间整 理，胶价与成本价差偏窄，价格底部支撑仍存。期货夜盘拉涨提振现货交投，持货商成本偏高，报盘重 心偏强。 不过，市场货源供应充裕，下游轮胎产能释放不足，原料采买观望，压价商谈为主，基本面 承压。预计今日现货市场价格探涨，但幅度受限。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market is slightly bullish with oscillations, while in the medium - term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The low - valuation of cis - butadiene rubber makes the market less willing to short. This is due to the long - term policy orientation of "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization supporting the overall commodity valuation, and the neutral fundamentals of the rubber and butadiene sectors. There are short - term speculative rallies at the lower end of the fundamental valuation, but limited upside in the medium - term due to lack of fundamental upward drivers [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract) was 11,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 41,370 lots, a decrease of 18,741 lots; the open interest was 25,625 lots, a decrease of 831 lots; and the trading volume was 237.957 million yuan, a decrease of 107.947 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 35 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 105 yuan, an increase of 175 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The price of North China private cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the prices of East China and South China private cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton; the market price of Shandong delivery - grade cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton and 9,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.6381%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit was - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - **Production**: This week, the output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.29 percentage points. Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week. It is expected that Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda's cis - butadiene rubber plants will restart next week, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber will increase [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025 (week 32), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Although some production plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week, the inventory of sample production enterprises increased due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream customers and slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Price and Market Trends - As of July 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9350 (-150) CNY/ton, while the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1100 (+0) USD/ton [1] - The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong is 11900 (-250) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2700 (-150) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 65 (-130) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, down 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The operating rate for the butadiene industry is 70%, up 3% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.6%, up 5.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 23, butadiene port inventory is 15,700 tons, down 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 24,850 tons, down 800 tons, a decrease of 3.1% [3] - Trader inventory stands at 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons, up 13.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 29, Qixiang Tengda (002408) has its 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit operating normally, with plans for a 10-day maintenance shutdown in early August [4] Market Analysis - On July 29, commodity bullish sentiment has cooled, with BR continuing to decline; the main contract BR2509 closed at 11,835 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous settlement price [5] - Despite low port inventory supporting butadiene prices, multiple domestic facilities are set to restart, leading to an expected increase in butadiene supply [5] - Demand for tires remains weak, with high inventory levels hindering tire operating rates; overall, short-term cost support exists, but BR supply-demand is loose, limiting upward potential [5]

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing downward pressure due to increased social inventory and mixed market sentiment, despite some short-term strength expected from supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 23, the synthetic rubber futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 12,015.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,080.0 CNY before dropping to a low of 11,810.0 CNY, resulting in a decrease of 2.10% [1]. - The social inventory of synthetic rubber recorded 32,800 tons for the week ending May 21, an increase of 60 tons or 1.86% from the previous week [1]. - Over the past month, the cumulative increase in social inventory was 50 tons, reflecting a rise of 1.55% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecast - As of May 22, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 61,700 long positions and 64,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.95 and a net position of -3,181 contracts, which increased by 2,042 contracts compared to the previous day [1]. - Southwest Futures indicated that while supply pressure continues, demand is expected to improve due to easing tariff expectations and a significant rebound in costs, leading to a short-term bullish outlook, although the upward potential is limited [2]. - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals of synthetic rubber prices are primarily driven by supply and demand rather than external trade tensions, with recent maintenance season disruptions causing a spike in butadiene prices, which may not be sustainable [2].