Market Overview - On January 21, synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract rising significantly by 2.86% to 11,850.0 yuan/ton [1] - In the Shanghai market, high-grade polybutadiene rubber prices increased by 100-150 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, indicating a tentative rise in pricing [1] - As of January 20, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in the inventory of butadiene rubber futures to 24,330 tons, down by 1,700 tons from the previous trading day [1] Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures noted a decline in butadiene production, with upstream profits expanding. Although polybutadiene production remains high, weak spot prices are compressing profits. Rising overseas butadiene prices provide some support for polybutadiene rubber prices. The market is expected to remain volatile under pressure, with a potential stabilization in the short term, but external macro risks such as tariffs should be monitored [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted that domestic polybutadiene production facilities have seen minimal shutdowns, maintaining high supply levels. Strong demand for butadiene and rumors of export transactions have significantly increased production costs. However, downstream resistance to high prices has led to notable discrepancies in negotiations. Both production and trade inventories have increased, and while production profits are under pressure, there are no signs of supply reductions. The operating rate of domestic tire manufacturers has improved significantly week-on-week, with expectations for stable production schedules [3]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 5, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 8950 (+200) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 965 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical is 11650 (+50) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3200 (+0) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 5 (+25) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production was 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 144,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%; semi-steel tire production was 58.39 million units, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; full-steel tire production was 12.86 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [1] - As of January 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 71.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.8%; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 77.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 66.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 5.4%; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 57.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [1] Inventory Levels - As of January 2, butadiene port inventory was 44,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,400 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 2,550 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%; trader inventory was 7,180 tons, an increase of 1,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.2% [2] Industry Insights - On January 5, following the New Year holiday, the rubber sector showed a strong performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closing at 11,645 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.82% compared to the previous day's settlement price [2] - Starting from the second half of January, three domestic butadiene facilities are expected to gradually restart, influenced by anticipated increases in exports and decreases in imports, which may lead to a reduction in net import volumes; however, overall supply is expected to remain ample, and port inventories are projected to stay at high levels [2] - The styrene-butadiene rubber facility at Maoming Petrochemical is expected to undergo maintenance and restart in mid to late January 2026 [2] - Demand from the tire and other rubber product industries is expected to remain stable, with some pre-Spring Festival stocking demand; however, a concentrated shutdown may occur from late January to February [2] - Overall, limited cost support and weakening supply-demand dynamics suggest significant resistance to price increases for BR in January, with attention needed on macroeconomic disturbances [2] Short-term Outlook - The short-term price range for BR2602 is expected to fluctuate between 11,200 and 12,000 CNY/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and closed higher. However, due to the high - pressure background of the current supply environment and record - high inventory, it is still difficult for the synthetic rubber futures price to continue rising. Future market trends need to focus on factors such as new production capacity, domestic real estate and infrastructure policies, and crude oil price changes [2][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber 2601 (BR2601) opened at 10,690 yuan/ton, with a high of 10,755 yuan/ton, a low of 10,545 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 10,575 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 123,000 lots, a decrease of 48,600 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 39,000 lots, a decrease of 6,617 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Latest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Increase (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BR Rubber 2512 | 10,605 | 10,510 | - | 60 | 0.57 | 340 | 1,138 | | BR Rubber 2601 | 10,690 | 10,545 | 10,575 | 50 | 0.48 | 122,663 | 38,986 | | BR Rubber 2602 | 10,700 | 10,745 | - | - | - | - | - | [4] 3.2 Spot Movement - On December 3, the quotes of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market were as follows: Yanshan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Yangzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Dushanzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Daqing Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The trading method was self - pick - up [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - Recently, due to changes in the market environment, the port inventory of butadiene has significantly decreased, the available circulating supply has tightened, the cost support has gradually strengthened, and the synthetic rubber futures price has rebounded from a low level [5] 3.3.2 Policy and Market Dynamics - On December 3, data released by the Thai Rubber Administration showed that in Thailand's three major central rubber markets, Songkhla RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, Surat Thani RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, and Nakhon Si Thammarat RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - As of early December, the capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber reached a high of 76% for the year, and the capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber also increased to over 80%. The pressure on the butadiene supply side comes from both the abundant domestic production and the high level of imports [6]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for synthetic rubber showed positive performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber opening at 10,905.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 11,115.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.73% [1] - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic polybutadiene rubber in sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [1] - In the Shanghai market, high-grade polybutadiene rubber prices increased by 50-150 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day, indicating a more cautious market sentiment among traders [1] Group 2 - The futures warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber remained stable at 8,750 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - Southwest Futures noted that the price of butadiene has decreased, slightly narrowing the processing losses for synthetic rubber, while the weekly capacity utilization rate for high-grade polybutadiene rubber in China was around 74%, which is relatively high year-on-year [2] - According to Greeen DGH Futures, the slight recovery in synthetic rubber prices was supported by a temporary reduction in domestic production due to maintenance, alongside improved downstream demand [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily Report - Research Variety: Synthetic Rubber 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber market is expected to enter an oversupply cycle as supply growth far exceeds demand growth. The short - term synthetic rubber futures may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to factors such as butadiene unit maintenance progress, crude oil price fluctuations, EU anti - dumping investigation results, and tire export data [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 30, 2025, synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and declined. For the BR2511 contract, the opening price was 11,325 yuan/ton, the highest was 11,335 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,100 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,100 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.64% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 110,000 lots, a decrease of 47,800 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 33,200 lots, a decrease of 5,336 lots from the previous day [2] - **Variety Price**: The report provides the opening, highest, lowest, latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of some synthetic rubber contracts on September 30, 2025 [4] 3.2 Spot Market - In the Shanghai market, the quotes of high - cis butadiene rubber from different petrochemical companies such as Hushan Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, etc. were provided on September 30, with no price changes [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: The price of butadiene may continue to be weak, and the upward space of crude oil prices is limited under the medium - and long - term supply - demand loosening expectation. The cost support for synthetic rubber will be further weakened [5] - **Policy and Market Dynamics**: On September 30, most quotes in Thailand's three major central rubber markets were flat or down [6] 3.4 Market Outlook - Projects of Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) and Fushun Petrochemical (160,000 tons) will be put into production in the fourth quarter. The total production capacity is expected to reach 7.627 million tons by the end of the year, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. The market will enter an oversupply cycle, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure is difficult to be substantially alleviated [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Synthetic rubber [1] - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of report: September 18, 2025 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, with supply, inventory, and cost factors influencing the market. Future price movements depend on pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 18, 2025, synthetic rubber fluctuated and declined. The BR2511 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton, reached a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,355 yuan/ton, and closed at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton or 1.76% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 116,100 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 74,500 lots, an increase of 7,604 lots [2] - **Variety price**: The BR2510 contract opened at 11,610 yuan/ton with a high of 11,660 yuan/ton; the BR2512 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton with a high of 11,590 yuan/ton; the BR2601 contract opened at 11,605 yuan/ton, closed at 11,440 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.59%, with a trading volume of 19,247 lots and an open interest of 22,233 lots [4] - **Spot price**: On September 18, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market decreased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Some arbitrage resources had lower prices, and the mainstream supply price was affected [5] 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry information**: As of September 17, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous period. However, trader inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and there is still pressure on total social inventory. Butadiene port inventory has dropped to 25,600 tons, but 50,000 tons of shipments are expected to arrive in October, weakening cost - side support [6] - **Policy and market dynamics**: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 18, China's rubber tire exports in August were 870,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase [6] 4.3 Market Outlook - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities. Although there are disruptions in the natural rubber tapping process due to rainfall and high raw material prices, the spot trading sentiment has weakened. Supply and inventory pressures dominate the market. The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, and future price movements need to pay attention to pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic high styrene-butadiene rubber market is experiencing weak price movements, with expectations of a slight increase in prices, although the extent of this increase is limited due to various market factors [1] Price Trends - The market prices for BR9000 in North and East China are around 11,525 - 11,650 CNY/ton, while in South China, prices are between 11,600 - 11,650 CNY/ton [1] - The synthetic rubber futures prices are stabilizing, with spot sellers offering discounts and some grades being withheld from sale [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a sufficient supply of spot styrene-butadiene rubber, but downstream tire production capacity is not fully utilized, leading to cautious raw material purchasing and price negotiations [1] - The market is expected to see a slight price increase today, but the extent of this increase will be limited due to the pressure from the fundamental market conditions [1] Cost Factors - The price of raw material butadiene is stabilizing, and the gap between rubber prices and cost prices is narrowing, indicating that there is still some bottom support for prices [1] - The futures market's night session has seen a rise, which is expected to boost spot trading, although sellers are facing high costs [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market is slightly bullish with oscillations, while in the medium - term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The low - valuation of cis - butadiene rubber makes the market less willing to short. This is due to the long - term policy orientation of "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization supporting the overall commodity valuation, and the neutral fundamentals of the rubber and butadiene sectors. There are short - term speculative rallies at the lower end of the fundamental valuation, but limited upside in the medium - term due to lack of fundamental upward drivers [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract) was 11,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 41,370 lots, a decrease of 18,741 lots; the open interest was 25,625 lots, a decrease of 831 lots; and the trading volume was 237.957 million yuan, a decrease of 107.947 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 35 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 105 yuan, an increase of 175 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The price of North China private cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the prices of East China and South China private cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton; the market price of Shandong delivery - grade cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton and 9,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.6381%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit was - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - **Production**: This week, the output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.29 percentage points. Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week. It is expected that Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda's cis - butadiene rubber plants will restart next week, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber will increase [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025 (week 32), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Although some production plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week, the inventory of sample production enterprises increased due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream customers and slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Price and Market Trends - As of July 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9350 (-150) CNY/ton, while the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1100 (+0) USD/ton [1] - The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong is 11900 (-250) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2700 (-150) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 65 (-130) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, down 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The operating rate for the butadiene industry is 70%, up 3% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.6%, up 5.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 23, butadiene port inventory is 15,700 tons, down 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 24,850 tons, down 800 tons, a decrease of 3.1% [3] - Trader inventory stands at 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons, up 13.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 29, Qixiang Tengda (002408) has its 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit operating normally, with plans for a 10-day maintenance shutdown in early August [4] Market Analysis - On July 29, commodity bullish sentiment has cooled, with BR continuing to decline; the main contract BR2509 closed at 11,835 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous settlement price [5] - Despite low port inventory supporting butadiene prices, multiple domestic facilities are set to restart, leading to an expected increase in butadiene supply [5] - Demand for tires remains weak, with high inventory levels hindering tire operating rates; overall, short-term cost support exists, but BR supply-demand is loose, limiting upward potential [5]

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,750.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,060.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.35% [1] - The cost support for synthetic rubber is strengthening, driven by rising macroeconomic sentiment and sector optimism, leading to an upward movement in prices [1] - The main contract support level is identified at 11,300-11,400 CNY, with resistance at 11,900-12,000 CNY [1] Group 2 - Recent price resistance for raw material butadiene is evident, leading to weakened cost support for styrene-butadiene rubber, while domestic supply is expected to increase due to the restart of several production facilities [2] - The overall production capacity utilization rate for tire manufacturers is recovering, with production levels stabilizing and a slight increase in orders expected in mid to late July [2] - The BR2509 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,500-12,000 CNY in the short term [2]