南华期货：后市预计合成橡胶维持偏强震荡 目前丁二烯抬价，利润空间扩大，氧化脱氢工艺毛利转正，或驱动部分装置重启节奏加快；丁二烯出口 空间随内盘走高而缩窄，供应紧张有所缓解；但短期顺丁橡胶提产仍受限。在国内宏观利好下顺丁橡胶 需求预期不弱，且下游轮胎产能海外扩张有望带动国内产量通过出口消化以减轻供应压力。后市预计合 成橡胶维持偏强震荡，但需警惕外部局势变化带来的风险，比如美伊局势升级或反转、突发关税等。 瑞达期货（002961）：br2603合约短线建议暂以观望为主 近期国内顺丁装置停车较少，供应延续高位，现货端流通资源充足导致下游采购持续压价，出货压力及 生产利润明显承压影响，本周部分生产企业库存仍增长，而套利资源价格优势显现，下游低价采购有所 跟进，贸易企业库存下降，预计短期生产企业库存及贸易企业库存变动有限。需求方面，上周国内轮胎 企业产能利用率涨跌互现，半钢胎部分企业外贸订单支撑，装置排产小幅提升，其他多数企业排产维持 稳定。全钢胎出货压力加大，部分企业存适度控产现象，拖拽产能利用率小幅走低，预计短期轮胎企业 产能利用率稳中偏弱运行。br2603合约短线建议暂以观望为主。 1月27日盘中，合成橡胶期货主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant price movements driven by supply-demand dynamics and cost factors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 22, the domestic futures market for synthetic rubber showed a significant increase, with the main contract opening at 11,935.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,215.0 CNY, marking a rise of 3.58% [1]. - The synthetic rubber market is currently characterized by a strong performance, with prices fluctuating upwards [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Huatai Futures, the supply-demand balance for polybutadiene rubber is stable, with high operating rates but limited room for further increases due to production losses [2]. - Downstream demand remains weak, leading to a cautious procurement attitude among buyers, while upstream prices for butadiene are expected to remain stable due to recent export boosts and high operating rates in downstream sectors [2]. Group 3: Cost and Price Drivers - Guoyuan Futures noted that the recent price surge in BR rubber futures is primarily driven by a rebound in international oil prices, supported by tight European spot markets and geopolitical tensions [3]. - The limited availability of butadiene resources in the domestic market has strengthened seller sentiment, contributing to cost support for BR rubber [3]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Xinhuh Futures maintains a bullish long-term outlook for synthetic rubber, predicting a favorable fundamental environment for polybutadiene rubber in the first half of 2026, with no new production capacity expected [3]. - There is an anticipated production gap for butadiene due to continuous underinvestment in capacity compared to downstream demand, which may lead to rising prices in the coming years [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and closed higher. However, due to the high - pressure background of the current supply environment and record - high inventory, it is still difficult for the synthetic rubber futures price to continue rising. Future market trends need to focus on factors such as new production capacity, domestic real estate and infrastructure policies, and crude oil price changes [2][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber 2601 (BR2601) opened at 10,690 yuan/ton, with a high of 10,755 yuan/ton, a low of 10,545 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 10,575 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 123,000 lots, a decrease of 48,600 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 39,000 lots, a decrease of 6,617 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Latest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Increase (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BR Rubber 2512 | 10,605 | 10,510 | - | 60 | 0.57 | 340 | 1,138 | | BR Rubber 2601 | 10,690 | 10,545 | 10,575 | 50 | 0.48 | 122,663 | 38,986 | | BR Rubber 2602 | 10,700 | 10,745 | - | - | - | - | - | [4] 3.2 Spot Movement - On December 3, the quotes of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market were as follows: Yanshan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Yangzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Dushanzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Daqing Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The trading method was self - pick - up [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - Recently, due to changes in the market environment, the port inventory of butadiene has significantly decreased, the available circulating supply has tightened, the cost support has gradually strengthened, and the synthetic rubber futures price has rebounded from a low level [5] 3.3.2 Policy and Market Dynamics - On December 3, data released by the Thai Rubber Administration showed that in Thailand's three major central rubber markets, Songkhla RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, Surat Thani RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, and Nakhon Si Thammarat RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - As of early December, the capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber reached a high of 76% for the year, and the capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber also increased to over 80%. The pressure on the butadiene supply side comes from both the abundant domestic production and the high level of imports [6]

Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Data Daily Report [3] Report Date - October 15, 2025 [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 14, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly. The previous low prices attracted better trading, prompting some suppliers to raise prices. However, due to the weak performance of major downstream products, the market buying sentiment remained cautious, and the slightly higher price quotes had poor trading, which limited the upward range of the market [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber was 78.99%, a 1.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was a small loss of 157 yuan/ton [4]. - Although the short - term shutdown of an upstream device in Shandong affected the market in the morning, the impact was considered limited in the afternoon. The butadiene end had a large amount of external resources and good trading performance. The downstream remained on the sidelines due to trade frictions and the slightly weak natural rubber market [4]. - Considering that the trading center of private resources was significantly lower than the current ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina, some industry players were cautiously waiting for the price policy adjustment of Sinopec and PetroChina [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The closing price of BR2511.SHF was 10,920 yuan/ton, down 1.28%; the settlement price was 10,825 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The trading volume was 65,011, down 42.59%; the open interest was 29,075, down 9.18% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The delivered price in the central Shandong region was around 8,550 - 8,650 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 8,200 - 8,300 yuan/ton. The market prices in Hangzhou, Jiangsu, and Shandong all decreased [4]. - **Crude Oil Market**: WTI was at 57.84 US dollars/barrel, down 5.24%; Brent was at 62.09 US dollars/barrel, down 4.81% [4]. Production and Profit - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 78.99% [4]. - **Production Profit**: The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was - 157 yuan/ton [4]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - **Market Sentiment**: Trade frictions and the weak natural rubber market made downstream players cautious. Some players were waiting for the price policy adjustment of Sinopec and PetroChina [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: BR was in a consolidation operation; Arbitrage: After the spread widened again, pay attention to going long on BR and short on RU or NR [4].

Group 1 - The main contract for synthetic rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 11,355.0 yuan, and is currently reported at 11,650.0 yuan, with a decrease of 1.81% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the market outlook, with Ruida Futures predicting a short-term fluctuation range for the br2510 contract between 11,300 and 12,000 yuan [1] - Green Dahu Futures suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for synthetic rubber due to general downstream demand pressure affecting prices [2] Group 2 - Ruida Futures notes that the cost support from the supply price of polybutadiene rubber remains, while inventory levels continue to decline, with some facilities expected to restart this week, potentially increasing domestic supply [1] - The tire production capacity utilization rate showed slight fluctuations, with some semi-steel tire manufacturers undergoing maintenance, impacting overall capacity utilization [1] - Full-steel tire manufacturers have resumed operations, bringing production back to pre-maintenance levels, which may lead to a slight increase in capacity utilization, although overall order performance remains average [1]

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing downward pressure due to increased social inventory and mixed market sentiment, despite some short-term strength expected from supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 23, the synthetic rubber futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 12,015.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,080.0 CNY before dropping to a low of 11,810.0 CNY, resulting in a decrease of 2.10% [1]. - The social inventory of synthetic rubber recorded 32,800 tons for the week ending May 21, an increase of 60 tons or 1.86% from the previous week [1]. - Over the past month, the cumulative increase in social inventory was 50 tons, reflecting a rise of 1.55% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecast - As of May 22, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 61,700 long positions and 64,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.95 and a net position of -3,181 contracts, which increased by 2,042 contracts compared to the previous day [1]. - Southwest Futures indicated that while supply pressure continues, demand is expected to improve due to easing tariff expectations and a significant rebound in costs, leading to a short-term bullish outlook, although the upward potential is limited [2]. - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals of synthetic rubber prices are primarily driven by supply and demand rather than external trade tensions, with recent maintenance season disruptions causing a spike in butadiene prices, which may not be sustainable [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from the institutions indicates that synthetic rubber is expected to experience a strong upward correction due to improved macroeconomic conditions and cost support from rising crude oil prices [1] - The recent US-China trade negotiations resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs to 10%, which is expected to enhance downstream demand for synthetic rubber, leading to an improved supply-demand dynamic [1] - The market sentiment for butadiene is bullish, with suppliers raising prices, which supports the upward trend of synthetic rubber [1] Group 2 - The br2506 contract is anticipated to show short-term strength, although caution is advised against blindly chasing price increases due to potential risks [2] - Domestic supply of raw materials is currently ample, leading to weaker price support, while inventories for both production enterprises and trading companies are slightly increasing [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire manufacturers has significantly decreased, but a gradual recovery is expected in the short term [2]