Group 1 - The main contract for synthetic rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 11,355.0 yuan, and is currently reported at 11,650.0 yuan, with a decrease of 1.81% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the market outlook, with Ruida Futures predicting a short-term fluctuation range for the br2510 contract between 11,300 and 12,000 yuan [1] - Green Dahu Futures suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for synthetic rubber due to general downstream demand pressure affecting prices [2] Group 2 - Ruida Futures notes that the cost support from the supply price of polybutadiene rubber remains, while inventory levels continue to decline, with some facilities expected to restart this week, potentially increasing domestic supply [1] - The tire production capacity utilization rate showed slight fluctuations, with some semi-steel tire manufacturers undergoing maintenance, impacting overall capacity utilization [1] - Full-steel tire manufacturers have resumed operations, bringing production back to pre-maintenance levels, which may lead to a slight increase in capacity utilization, although overall order performance remains average [1]

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing downward pressure due to increased social inventory and mixed market sentiment, despite some short-term strength expected from supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 23, the synthetic rubber futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 12,015.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,080.0 CNY before dropping to a low of 11,810.0 CNY, resulting in a decrease of 2.10% [1]. - The social inventory of synthetic rubber recorded 32,800 tons for the week ending May 21, an increase of 60 tons or 1.86% from the previous week [1]. - Over the past month, the cumulative increase in social inventory was 50 tons, reflecting a rise of 1.55% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecast - As of May 22, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 61,700 long positions and 64,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.95 and a net position of -3,181 contracts, which increased by 2,042 contracts compared to the previous day [1]. - Southwest Futures indicated that while supply pressure continues, demand is expected to improve due to easing tariff expectations and a significant rebound in costs, leading to a short-term bullish outlook, although the upward potential is limited [2]. - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals of synthetic rubber prices are primarily driven by supply and demand rather than external trade tensions, with recent maintenance season disruptions causing a spike in butadiene prices, which may not be sustainable [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from the institutions indicates that synthetic rubber is expected to experience a strong upward correction due to improved macroeconomic conditions and cost support from rising crude oil prices [1] - The recent US-China trade negotiations resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs to 10%, which is expected to enhance downstream demand for synthetic rubber, leading to an improved supply-demand dynamic [1] - The market sentiment for butadiene is bullish, with suppliers raising prices, which supports the upward trend of synthetic rubber [1] Group 2 - The br2506 contract is anticipated to show short-term strength, although caution is advised against blindly chasing price increases due to potential risks [2] - Domestic supply of raw materials is currently ample, leading to weaker price support, while inventories for both production enterprises and trading companies are slightly increasing [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire manufacturers has significantly decreased, but a gradual recovery is expected in the short term [2]