上周美糖震荡。由于前期降水不足，巴西甘蔗单产有所下降。截止到6月底，巴西中南部地区甘蔗累积单产为79.32吨/公顷，同 比下降11.04%。另外，今年生产进度也偏慢，导致甘蔗和食糖产量同比明显下降。不过，今年的甘蔗制糖比例同比继续增加， 而且从糖醇比价来看，比值依然处于历史震荡区间上沿，美糖上方仍面临一定压力。国内方面，郑糖震荡。产销方面，今年销 售节奏较快，库存同比减少，现货压力相对较轻。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易重心转向进口和下榨季的估产。今年搪浆进口 量大幅减少,国产糖的销售压力较小。不过,25/26榨季的产量预期存在不确定性,如果后期降雨不足可能会导致减产，关注后 续天气情况和甘蔗长势。 (苹果) 期价震荡。早熟苹果价格基本持稳、好货价格较高，客商采购积极性较好。冷库苹果方面，剩余货量不多，市场需求一般。库 存方面,卓创的数据显示,截止到8月22日,全国冷库苹果库存为40.42万吨,同比成少51.84%。上周全国冷库苹果去阵量为 5.71万吨，同比下降21.13%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易重心转向新李度的估产。今年西部产区受到实潮和花期大风的影 响，但是低温对产量的影响不太,主要增加了果锈的风险。另 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [28]. - For natural rubber, consider going long after a pull - back [31]. - PVC will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. - Urea will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [35]. - PX will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. - PTA may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - Ethylene glycol may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - grade chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - For soda ash, pay attention to controlling positions due to the increase in supply and weak demand [42]. - For glass, go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances before contract roll - over [43]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported ore on consumption and prices [45]. - For pulp, the supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability, and there is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [49]. - For copper, pay attention to buying opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - Tin and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [54][55]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [57]. - For palm oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them [62]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [65]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, showing interval - based fluctuations [69][70]. - Apple futures are expected to be affected by increased production [71]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [77]. - Corn prices have support at lower levels in the short - term and pressure at higher levels, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - Log prices are expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US retail sales data was stable, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly declined. Policy changes dominate the market in the short - term, and the prices are expected to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - term. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly pulled back. Policy is the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The high demand for hot metal supports prices, but the supply has increased. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted. Policy affects supply, and prices may continue to adjust in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply and prices have changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The supply is excessive, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards and was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. The "Double - Putin" talks and CFTC data indicate that crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market shows signs of improvement, but the supply in Singapore is still excessive. It is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. Wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and supply - side disruptions continue. Consider going long after a pull - back [29][31]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. It will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures closed flat. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it will fluctuate. It is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [33][35]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply has increased, and the cost support is weak. It will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has slightly increased, demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak. It may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated. It may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand has recovered. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [40][41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. Pay attention to controlling positions [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. Go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Supply has little change, and inventory has decreased. The use of imported ore may affect consumption and prices, and the price is expected to stabilize [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose slightly. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability. The inventory is high, and the price rebound space is limited [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48][49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper slightly fluctuated. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Pay attention to buying opportunities [51][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, and the market expects the tin ore to resume production in the fourth quarter. The supply is still in short supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The ore price has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the demand is weak. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The USDA report lowered the US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean supply is loose, and the import cost has increased. Consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [56][57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose. The export volume in the first half of August increased. The domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated. Consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China imposed anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed supply may be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing long positions and holding them [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US and global cotton supply - demand reports were favorable. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, and textile exports have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [63][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to observe [67][69]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production increase has been confirmed. The inventory has decreased, and the price of early - maturing apples has declined [71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average live - pig price declined. The supply in the north has increased, and the price is expected to be observed. The supply in the south is stable. The supply will increase in August, and it is advisable to consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price rose slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory has increased. The supply in August is expected to increase, and consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][77]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the price has pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market [78][80]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs has decreased, and the inventory has declined. The trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [81][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be put on hold for the time being [26]. - For fuel oil, the main contract should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. - For synthetic rubber, investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. - For natural rubber, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. - Short - fiber is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with costs, and risk control is necessary [45]. - Soda ash is expected to have high - level adjustments in supply, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [46]. - Glass is recommended for short - selling in the short term, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a stable and narrow - range adjustment in price, and the market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [51][52]. - Lithium carbonate trading is complex, and it is recommended that non - participants operate with a light position and control risks [53]. - For copper, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][57]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors should consider exiting long positions at high levels and then look for long - position opportunities at support levels [60][61]. - For palm oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [62][64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [65][66]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [70][71]. - Apples are recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [73][75]. - For live pigs, an inverse spread strategy is recommended [76][77]. - For eggs, a 9 - 10 inverse spread strategy is recommended [78][79]. - For corn and starch, the near - month contract of corn has support at low levels, and starch follows the corn market [80][81]. - Logs are expected to have some support for bullish sentiment in the short term [82][84]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan on the day. China's macro - economic data in July showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB deposits was 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. 2. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.02%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.78%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.77% [8]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 777.72, up 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 777.1; the closing price of the silver main contract was 9,300, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 9318. The US Treasury Secretary speculated that the Fed might cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing a new driving force for gold [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 4. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3080 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3240 - 3370 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3490 - 3500 yuan/ton. Policy changes are the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price of finished products is expected to return to the logic of industrial supply and demand. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor [13][14]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of PB fines at the port was 788 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special fines was 660 yuan/ton. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The daily output of hot metal remains above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import volume of iron ore has increased significantly since April, the import volume and domestic output in the first half of the year decreased year - on - year, and the port inventory is lower than last year. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [16]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures回调 significantly. On Wednesday night, affected by the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The policy of coal production verification has affected the supply, and some coal mines have stopped production, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in coking coal supply [18][19]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. 7. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon closed down 0.65% to 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron closed down 1.02% to 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased, with the port manganese ore inventory rising slightly to 4.49 million tons. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills increased slightly, and the output of ferroalloys continued to rise, but the demand recovery was weak, and the supply was still high. The high inventory of warrants exerts pressure on the spot and futures markets [21]. - After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. 8. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low in recent days. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The Baker Hughes report showed that the total number of US oil and gas rigs decreased by 1. The IEA monthly report raised the global oil supply growth forecast and lowered the global oil demand growth forecast, and it is expected that there will be a record - high oil supply surplus next year [24]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, and geopolitical risks have eased. The IEA monthly report is negative for crude oil prices. The main contract of crude oil should be put on hold for the time being [25][26]. 9. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, and its trend remained weak. The downstream demand in the Asian fuel oil market continued to be weak, and the expected increase in Western arbitrage inflows pressured the low - sulfur fuel oil market. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia was sufficient, and the power plant demand decreased. In the Singapore spot market, the trading was difficult to conclude due to the large gap between buyers' and sellers' quotes [27]. - The main contract of fuel oil should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed down 0.13%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11850 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The supply decreased due to increased losses, the macro - sentiment was positive, and the market stabilized. The price of butadiene oscillated, and the processing of synthetic rubber was in a loss. The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber industry fell to around 68%. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The manufacturer's inventory decreased month - on - month, and the trader's inventory increased month - on - month [29]. - Investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. 11. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.13%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.08%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at around 14400 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The macro - market sentiment improved, and there were continued disturbances on the supply side, with the market stabilizing and rising. Heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affected rubber tapping, and the raw material purchase price continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The natural rubber inventory in China decreased this week, with both dark and light rubber inventories falling. It is estimated that Thailand's rubber production will increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons in 2025 [31][32]. - Investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. 12. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down 0.38%, the spot price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The oversupply situation of PVC continued, but the room for further decline was limited, and it continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The number of domestic PVC enterprises under maintenance decreased week - on - week, and the supply increased. The operating rates of the main downstream pipe and profile industries continued to decline, and the operating rates of other products were relatively stable. The cost and profit were mainly affected by raw materials. Currently, the raw material price fell, while the PVC price rose slightly, and the PVC profit improved. The social inventory of PVC increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 7.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.52% [34][35]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. 13. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed flat. The price in Linyi, Shandong remained stable at 1720 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. In the short term, the fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. In the medium term, a bullish view was maintained. The supply side saw a slight decline in the overall industry operating rate, but the supply remained at a high level. The main downstream compound fertilizer for autumn was in the production season, and the operating rate increased steadily. The operating rate of melamine decreased slightly. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, lower than expected last week, and the inventory of urea ports was 483,000 tons, higher than expected last week [37][38]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. 14. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 fell 0.35%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate rose slightly to 82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. Some refineries increased their loads or restarted. In June, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 765,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 34.4%. The international oil price oscillated weakly [39]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. 15. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell 0.55%. The spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.06%. Some PTA plants restarted or reduced their loads, with the PTA operating rate at 76.2%. The operating rate of polyester increased to 88.8%. The profit of PTA processing improved slightly to around 200 yuan/ton [40]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 0.47%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increased by 0.14%. The inventory at the main ports in East China was about 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from August 11 to August 17 was about 141,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was adjusted to 88.8%, and the operating rate of terminal looms was adjusted locally [43]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. 17. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2510 fell 0.22%. The operating rate of short - fiber plants rose to around 90.6%. The sales of polyester yarn improved, and the operating rates of downstream drawing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 70%, 59%, and 65% respectively. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in Jiangsu and

近期，橡胶板块呈现偏强震荡格局。上周，沪胶期货2601合约小幅反弹，累计上涨1.88%，收报于 15440元/吨。8月11日，2601合约延续涨势，再度上涨1.39%，收报15715元/吨。 展望后市，陈栋认为，前期大幅下跌后橡胶板块的利空情绪已得到释放。在偏多因素支撑下，预计后市 沪胶期货价格偏强运行。 邸艺琳则认为，短期橡胶原料价格坚挺、易涨难跌，需求预期处于修复阶段，内需稳中有进，库存表现 平稳，因此短期沪胶期货价格预计偏强震荡运行。不过，她提示，中长期需进一步关注旺季产量的实际 兑现情况、中美贸易谈判等变量。 "随着地缘风险溢价回吐完毕，国内橡胶市场转入基本面多空博弈阶段。"宝城期货能化分析师陈栋表 示，近期国内橡胶板块表现偏强的主要驱动因素是宏观环境改善。具体来看，近日美国总统特朗普提名 了一位重要人物——史蒂芬·米兰进入美联储高层，旨在执行其降息意图。市场将米兰视为特朗普在美 联储内部埋下的一颗降息"炸弹"。同时，由特朗普提名的美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼也主张年内降息三 次。在美联储内部鸽派力量持续增强的背景下，以鲍威尔为代表的鹰派力量可能相应减弱。目前，市场 预期9月美联储降息25个基点的概率已高 ...

近期，橡胶板块呈现偏强震荡格局。上周，沪胶期货2601合约小幅反弹，累计上涨1.88%，收报于 15440元/吨。8月11日，2601合约延续涨势，再度上涨1.39%，收报15715元/吨。 "随着地缘风险溢价回吐完毕，国内橡胶市场转入基本面多空博弈阶段。"宝城期货能化分析师陈栋表 示，近期国内橡胶板块表现偏强的主要驱动因素是宏观环境改善。具体来看，近日美国总统特朗普提名 了一位重要人物——史蒂芬·米兰进入美联储高层，旨在执行其降息意图。市场将米兰视为特朗普在美 联储内部埋下的一颗降息"炸弹"。同时，由特朗普提名的美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼也主张年内降息三 次。在美联储内部鸽派力量持续增强的背景下，以鲍威尔为代表的鹰派力量可能相应减弱。目前，市场 预期9月美联储降息25个基点的概率已高达91.5%。受降息预期提振，期货市场的宏观因素得到显著改 善。 国内方面，中信期货农业组高级分析师魏宇认为，自7月初以来，市场开始交易"反内卷"题材。尽管橡 胶板块本身与"反内卷"题材并无直接关联，但随着宏观情绪回暖以及商品期货价格强势反弹，沪胶期货 价格得以从底部缓慢上行。"虽然近期市场情绪和沪胶价格同步回落，但由于其自身基本 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market. Be cautious about the stock index futures, but optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets. Consider going long on gold, and be cautious about other commodities with specific trading strategies for each [6][10][12] Group 3: Summaries by Categories Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed up. The current macro data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The yield is low, and the economy is steadily recovering. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, so stay cautious [5][6][7] Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the asset valuation is low, and the economy has resilience. Be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and consider going long on stock index futures [8][10][11] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to precious metals. The central banks' gold - buying and the Fed's possible rate - cut provide upward impetus. The long - term bull market is expected to continue, and consider going long on gold futures [12][13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. Policy changes are currently the dominant factor, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. In the medium - term, the prices will return to the supply - demand logic. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and the possible steel industry policy is a potential positive factor. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. Policy is the dominant factor, and the price follows coking coal. The high iron - water production supports the price, but the supply has increased, and the inventory is lower than last year. The short - term supply - demand is strong, but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. After the previous sharp fluctuations, the prices are back to the supply - demand logic. The coal production verification policy has affected the supply and pushed up the prices. The futures may continue to be strong. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18][19] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The manganese ore supply has fluctuations, and the inventory is low. The demand for ferroalloys has a slight rebound, but the supply is still high. The cost has limited downward space. Consider going long on the spot when it falls into the loss - making range [20][21][22] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil declined significantly. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the market focus shifted to the US - Russia talks. The geopolitical risk eased, leading to the decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the main crude oil contract [23][24][25] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil declined significantly. The ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil price difference turned to a discount, and the high - sulfur fuel oil discount narrowed. The market expects a large amount of arbitrage fuel oil in Singapore, which is negative for the price. Consider shorting the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26][27] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose slightly. The raw material price has rebounded, but the production is still slightly in loss. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment cooled, and the supply - side disturbance slowed down. The price has limited downward space. Consider going long after the price pull - back [30][31] PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. The market will continue to oscillate at the bottom [32][33] Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures declined. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand of urea has weakened recently. It will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to rise in the medium - term [34][35] PX - The previous trading day, PX futures declined. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in the short - term, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened. The downward space is limited. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to cost and policies [36] PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply change is small, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened. The processing fee is under pressure, and the large - scale producers are reducing production. Consider range - bound trading and control risks [37][38] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The domestic coal - based production has high capacity utilization, but the overseas production has more maintenance, and the inventory is decreasing. Consider range - bound trading and focus on inventory and imports [39] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has improved. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction. The price will fluctuate with the cost. Pay attention to cost and policies [40][41] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The recent device maintenance has increased, and the inventory is stable. The price is mainly supported by the cost. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost. Control risks [42] Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda - ash futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The spot price has limited upward momentum. The supply is expected to remain high, but there is cost support from coking coal in the short - term [43][44] Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line is stable, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The downstream demand is weak. The price will be stable. Pay attention to the trading and inventory reduction in the spot market [45] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic - soda futures rose slightly. The supply has increased after the previous device maintenance. The demand from non - aluminum industries is weak, and the price will be weakly stable. The market may shift from tight to loose. Pay attention to production and demand [46][47] Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures declined. The supply has a marginal change, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand is weak. The market is in a multi - dimensional contradiction. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [48][49] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose significantly. The mining suspension of Ningde Times has raised the cost and supported the price, but the supply - demand surplus has not been reversed. The trading logic has shifted. It is difficult for one - sided trading. Light - position operation is recommended [50] Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated slightly. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the smelting cost has no further downward space. The Chinese stimulus policy is not effective, but the Fed's possible rate - cut will support the price. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [52][53] Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, but the expectation of production resumption in the fourth quarter has increased. The overall supply is still short, and the consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [54] Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures declined slightly. The ore price has weakened, and the port inventory is increasing. The stainless - steel market is under pressure, and the consumption is weak. The refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to oscillate [55] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures declined. The US soybean production is expected to be good, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the import cost has increased. Consider going long on soybean meal after the price adjustment and exiting long positions on soybean oil at high prices [56][57][58] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the demand is expected to be strong in August. Consider going long on palm oil [59][60] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices declined. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory is at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed - related products [61][63] Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic terminal demand is weak. The new - season production is expected to increase. Wait and see in the short - term and consider shorting on price rebounds [64][66][67] Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures declined. The Brazilian sugar production is accelerating, and India and Thailand are expected to have a good harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but the import volume will be high before October. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [68][69][70] Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures rose slightly. The expected apple production reduction has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly. Consider shorting on price rebounds [70][71][72] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live - pig futures rose. The northern pig price may weaken, and the southern pig price may be stable with narrow fluctuations. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. Consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74][75] Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase in August, and the consumption is less than expected. Consider a 9 - 10 reverse - spread strategy [76][77][78] Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The US corn supply is abundant, and the domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. The consumption is recovering, and the inventory pressure has reduced. Consider buying out - of - money call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [79][80][81] Logs - The previous trading day, log futures declined. The import cost is stable, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream demand has increased, and the futures market sentiment is strong. The short - term bullish sentiment is expected to be strong [82][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamental analysis [5][7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract unchanged [5]. - The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan on the day [5]. - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook. China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy [5]. - China's exports and imports in July increased year - on - year. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend and require caution [6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [7]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. China's gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month in July. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the possible Fed rate cut, the long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [9]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. Policy changes currently dominate the market, and prices may return to the industrial supply - demand logic in the medium term. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses rebar prices, while potential steel industry policies may be positive. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [11]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. Policy affects the market, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but may weaken in the medium term. Technically, it is supported, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose. After previous fluctuations, they are returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. A coal production inspection policy has affected supply, and they may continue to be strong. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions [15]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. Manganese ore supply has fluctuations, and ferroalloy production is rising while demand is weak, with high inventory. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels [17]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil declined due to the progress of US - Russia negotiations. OPEC+ increased production, and the market is waiting for the September meeting. The US non - farm data was poor, and geopolitical risks decreased. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil declined, blocked by the 5 - day moving average. Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and Asian supply is abundant. The market expects more fuel oil arrivals, and the main contract is recommended to short the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [23]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber rose. Raw material prices recovered, and the industry's capacity utilization increased. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [25]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber rose. Supply disturbances slowed down, and the market corrected. The decline space is limited, and long positions can be considered on dips [27]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited, and it will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30]. Urea - Last trading day, urea fell. In the short term, it will fluctuate with the spot, and in the medium term, it is considered bullish [34]. PX - Last trading day, PX fluctuated. The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. It may fluctuate, and interval trading is considered [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA fell. Supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil weakens. However, due to the pressure on processing fees and increased production cuts by large manufacturers, the downside is supported, and interval trading is considered [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The overall supply is high, but overseas maintenance may reduce imports, and inventory is decreasing. Interval trading is considered, focusing on port inventory and imports [40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber fell. Supply is high, demand has improved, and it may follow cost fluctuations [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips fell. Raw material prices fluctuate, device maintenance increases, and inventory is stable. The market is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash fell. Production increased this week, and inventory rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to be stable in the short term [45]. Glass - Last trading day, glass fell. The number of production lines is stable, and inventory is increasing. The destocking speed slows down, and the downstream demand is weak [46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda fell. Production increased after previous maintenance, and inventory rose. The demand for aluminum products provides some support, and the market is returning to the fundamental logic [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp rose. High port inventory and international shipping suppress the market. The demand for household paper is weak, and the supply - demand balance is weak [49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply is uncertain due to mining license issues. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high production and consumption improving, but high inventory. It is recommended to observe and control risks [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the domestic smelting cost has no room to decline. The Chinese stimulus policy is not satisfactory, but the Fed rate - cut expectation supports the price. The main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production may increase in the fourth quarter. The overall supply is still short, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The price of nickel ore is weakening, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price is expected to fluctuate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The low price stimulates demand, and the soybean crushing volume is high. The inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil is rising. Consider long positions in soybean meal after adjustment and exiting long positions in soybean oil at high levels [58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell due to concerns about inventory and production increases and weak export demand. Consider long positions in palm oil [60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rebounded. China's imports of rapeseed decreased in June, while imports of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. Consider long positions in rapeseed products [62]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated, and overseas cotton fell. The global and domestic cotton supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [64]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas sugar fell due to crude oil. The sugar production in India and Brazil is expected to increase. China's sugar imports increased in June. It is recommended to observe [67]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production in the new season will increase slightly. Short positions are recommended after a rebound [69]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the summer. Consider reverse - spread strategies [72]. Eggs - Last trading day, the egg price was stable in the main production areas and fell in the main sales areas. The production cost is high, and the profit is low. The egg supply is expected to increase in August. Consider reverse - spread strategies [75]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is recovering. The new - season corn is expected to be abundant, and the price has pressure. Consider call options for old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows corn [77]. Logs - Last trading day, logs rose. The import of New Zealand logs is expected to increase, and the price is rising. The demand from downstream factories is increasing, and the short - term market sentiment is bullish [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Metals and Minerals - Gold, Silver, Zinc, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Logs: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [24] - Copper, Lead, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal: Neutral Outlook [0] [12] [18] Energy - Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Negative Outlook [-1] [4] Chemicals - PTA, MEG, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [4] Agricultural and Livestock - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, Peanut: Varying Degrees of Outlook [-1, 0] [4] Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Negative Outlook [-1] [4] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news. The trends of different commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and geopolitical events. For example, the weak non - farm payroll data in the US has led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, which has an impact on precious metals and other commodities [7] [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm data is weak, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, with some contracts having positive night - trading gains [2] [6]. - **Silver**: It has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also fluctuated, with some contracts having negative daily gains [2] [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot premium is firm, which limits price declines. The trend strength is 0. Macro - economic data and industry events such as project evaluations in Peru and tariff policies in the US have an impact on the copper market [12] [14]. - **Zinc**: It is in a downward oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has also changed [15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction limits price drops, and the trend strength is 0. The prices of lead futures and spot have shown little change, and inventory has decreased [18]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot have fluctuated, and inventory data has changed [20] [21]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has shifted downward. Alumina is in continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is - 1 [25] [27]. - **Nickel**: The multi - empty game has intensified, and nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of nickel futures and related products in the industrial chain have fluctuated [28] [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: It has returned to fundamentals, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have shown little change [29]. Energy - Related Commodities - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The sentiment has been realized, and they are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot have changed, and inventory and position data are also provided [54] [55]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption has recovered, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend strength is 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot in different regions are reported, and position data is also given [59] [61]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances still exist, and wide - range oscillations may continue. The trend strength is 0. The prices of carbonate - lithium futures and spot have fluctuated, and market data such as trading volume and open interest are provided [34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a weak pattern. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has changed [37] [38]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term sentiment continues to cool down. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and related products in the photovoltaic industry have fluctuated [38]. - **PTA**: The trend is weak, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differentials. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. Agricultural and Livestock Commodities - **Palm Oil**: With the ebb of macro and crude - oil factors, wait for low - level long - position building. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is mainly in an oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold short positions as appropriate, and it may continue to be weak. The trend strength is - 1 [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Most financial and commodity markets are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends and investment opportunities [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Fixed - Income (Bonds) - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and it is expected that treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, so one should remain cautious [5][6]. 2. Equity Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Although the previous trading day saw mixed results in stock index futures, considering that domestic asset valuations are low and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still favored, and one can consider going long on stock index futures [8]. 3. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. Due to factors such as the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and one can consider going long on gold futures [10]. 4. Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell sharply. The White House's decision to impose tariffs on imported semi - finished copper products led to a sharp decline in US copper, and Shanghai and London copper followed suit. The supply of spot goods is tight, but the support factors for copper prices are weakening [57]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the expectation of tin ore resumption of production in the fourth quarter has increased. The overall supply is still in short supply, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate [58]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The price of nickel ore has weakened, and the inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate. The consumption situation is not optimistic, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate [59]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the dominant factor in the market, and iron ore prices follow the trend of coking coal. In the short term, it may continue to correct, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels after the correction [14][15]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the main factor affecting the market. After short - term fluctuations, the prices of finished products are expected to return to the guidance of the supply - demand logic of the industry. The real estate downturn and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels after the correction [12]. 5. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards. Due to factors such as the US - South Korea trade agreement, geopolitical risks, and US sanctions on Iran, crude oil prices are expected to be supported, and one can consider going long on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The supply of fuel oil in Asia is sufficient, but the signing of trade agreements between the US and other countries is beneficial to the shipping market, so one can consider going long on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber fell. The raw material price has rebounded, but the production is still slightly in the red. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber fell. Supply is affected by rainfall, and demand is stable. It is expected that natural rubber will show a relatively strong oscillatory trend [30]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market will show a relatively strong oscillatory trend [32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea fell. In the short term, it will follow the spot market fluctuations, while in the medium term, a bullish view is maintained [37]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: On the previous trading day, PX fell. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It may oscillate and adjust, and one should participate with caution [39][40]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA fell. The short - term supply - demand situation has little change, and the cost of crude oil provides some support. It may oscillate, and one should participate within a range [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory decline provides some support. One should be cautious about the upside space and participate within a range [42][43]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber fell. The short - term supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It may follow the cost to oscillate, and one should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle chips fell. The recent increase in equipment maintenance has led to inventory reduction, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda ash fell. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [47]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass fell. The inventory is decreasing, but the market is still in a state of multi - empty game. One should continue to pay attention to spot trading and inventory changes [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda fell. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, while the demand growth is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [50][51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the supply from the mining end is uncertain. One should mainly watch and control risks [55]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal fell. The good weather in the main production areas has increased the expectation of a bumper harvest. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. One can consider going long on soybean meal after the adjustment and exiting long positions in soybean oil at high levels [60][61]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm oil fell. The export volume has decreased, but the domestic consumption is increasing. One can consider going long on palm oil [62][63]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: On the previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil showed relatively strong performance. The inventory of rapeseed is decreasing, and one can consider going long on rapeseed - related products [64][65]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fell. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic supply is expected to increase. One is advised to short the far - month contracts in batches at high levels [66][68]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar fluctuated. The expected global bumper harvest has put pressure on sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The expected reduction in production has been disproved, and the market is expected to be affected by anti - involution policies. It is recommended to wait and see [74][76]. - **Live Pigs**: On the previous trading day, live pig futures fell. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the demand in summer is weak. One can consider closing out short positions gradually [78][79]. - **Eggs**: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply of eggs is expected to increase in July, and one can consider a 9 - 10 spread reversal strategy [80][82]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The supply - demand of corn is approaching balance, and the price has support at low levels. Corn starch follows the corn market [83][84]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The inventory of logs is decreasing slightly, and relevant policies may drive the forestry market. [88][90]