2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.31%报 115.570 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.04%报 108.430 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.06%报 105.855 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.460 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，11 月 21 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3750 亿元 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market environments [5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. With the current macro - economic situation and market conditions, there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day showed mixed performance. Given the current domestic economic situation, market sentiment, and external factors, the risk of a significant decline is low, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day witnessed price increases. Considering the global trade and financial environment, central bank actions, and the current price level, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - position opportunity [10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Alumina supply is relatively loose, and aluminum needs to beware of seasonal consumption pressure and profit - taking, with a possible phased correction [49]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day remained flat. With tight supply of zinc concentrates and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Due to supply and demand factors, lead prices are expected to operate within a range [54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. With tight supply and certain demand support, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had an increase. Facing supply - demand contradictions, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Considering supply - demand relationships and technical aspects, prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With a weak supply - demand pattern and technical resistance, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a significant decline. Based on supply - demand changes and technical analysis, there may be a short - term correction, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during the correction [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had a decline. With high - level production decline, weak demand recovery, and cost support, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [18]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had an upward trend. Considering supply - demand factors and market news, there are concerns about supply surplus, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the short - term [20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With mixed supply - demand factors, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [23][24]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With improved downstream demand in some areas, investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With supply and demand factors, there is still room for short - term price increases, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. With an oversupply situation, attention should be paid to supply - side changes [33]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. It is expected that the market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. With improved short - term supply - demand structure, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. With low processing fees, low inventory, and cost factors, it is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and caution is needed [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had a decline. With increased supply and inventory, it is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high - level supply, stable demand, and enhanced cost - driving, it is expected to fluctuate with costs [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. With raw material price support and stable supply and demand, it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had a significant increase. With strong supply and demand, inventory is being depleted, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [45]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different performances. With sufficient soybean supply and improved demand for soybean oil, investors can focus on long - position opportunities for soybean oil and consider exiting long positions for soybean meal [59]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day had an increase. Affected by supply - demand factors, investors can consider long - position opportunities during corrections [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day had a decline. With supply - demand and external factors, investors can consider a long - position strategy for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With increased global and US production and inventory, and domestic supply and demand factors, cotton prices are expected to be weak [66]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had a decline. With global production expectations and domestic supply pressure, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [70]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had a high - level volatile operation. With current inventory and market conditions, apple prices are expected to operate strongly [74]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. With sufficient supply and uncertain demand, investors can consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had a price decline. With high - level supply and weak demand, investors can consider closing short positions gradually [79]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day had an increase. With new - season corn supply pressure and inventory factors, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [81].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire report industry are provided. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: The risk of a significant decline is low, and it is advisable to take long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17] - **Ferroalloys**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] - **Crude Oil**: In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: Focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - **Polyolefins**: Temporarily observe [28] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] - **PVC**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [36][37] - **PX**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] - **PTA**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] - **Copper**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] - **Aluminum**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] - **Zinc**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] - **Lead**: Will operate within a range [53][54] - **Tin**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] - **Nickel**: May oscillate [57] - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] - **Palm Oil**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] - **Cotton**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] - **Sugar**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] - **Apples**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] - **Hogs**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to observe for corn and wait for the release of supply pressure; corn starch may follow the corn market [83][86] Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw all treasury bond futures close higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **Open - Market Operations**: On November 18, the central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan [5] - **Policy News**: 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption infrastructure and the construction of the commercial circulation system [5] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures down 0.41%, 0.23%, 0.85%, and 0.69% respectively [8][9] - **Economic Data**: In October, the unemployment rates of different age - groups in the labor force were announced, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow [9] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures decline, with gold down 1.18% and silver down 1.96% [11] - **Positive Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals [11] - **Negative Factors**: The recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply is affected by poor profitability, and inventory is high [13] - **Outlook**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate [15] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has declined, but there was a recent increase in daily pig - iron output. Supply is abundant, and inventory is higher than last year [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and there may be resistance to rebounds [15] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures [17] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is weak. Coke supply has decreased, and demand may weaken [17] - **Outlook**: May continue to correct in the short term [17] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures decline [19] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Manganese ore supply has decreased, and costs have increased. Production is declining, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating [19] - **Outlook**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and close low [21] - **Industry News**: The CFTC report is suspended, the number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and Russia has been attacked [21] - **Outlook**: There are concerns about oversupply, but the attack on Russia is beneficial to prices. In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities [22][23] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned, but there is an analysis of supply and demand [24] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative, while Russia's sanctions and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive [24][25] - **Outlook**: Focus on shorting opportunities [25][26] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a weak and volatile PP market in Hangzhou and a stable LLDPE market in Yuyao [27] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PP downstream demand has a mixed performance, with some industries seeing an increase and others remaining weak [27] - **Outlook**: Temporarily observe [28] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main synthetic rubber contract rise 0.91% [29] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Raw material prices have rebounded, production capacity utilization has increased, and inventory has increased [29][30] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main natural rubber contract rise 0.33% [32] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [32] - **Outlook**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PVC contract decline 1.46% [34] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory has decreased slightly [34][35] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main urea contract rise 0.36% [36] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is at a certain level [36] - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36][37] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PX contract decline 0.53% [38] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, and imports have decreased slightly [38] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PTA contract decline 0.55% [40] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has adjusted, demand is stable, and processing fees have decreased [40] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main ethylene glycol contract decline 0.64% [41] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, inventory has increased, and demand is limited [41] - **Outlook**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main short - fiber contract decline 0.64% [42] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization is high, demand is weak, and processing fees are at a certain level [42] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main bottle - chip contract decline 0.56% [43] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, export growth has slowed, and processing fees are at a certain level [43] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lithium carbonate contract rise 0.93% [44] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving, with inventory decreasing [44][45] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main copper contract decline 0.03% [46] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by mine production problems, and demand is weak except for the copper - foil sector [46] - **Outlook**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main aluminum contract decline 0.16%, and the alumina contract decline 0.36% [48] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply is abundant, and aluminum demand is weakening [48] - **Outlook**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main zinc contract rise 0.11% [51] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply of zinc concentrate is tight, production has decreased, and demand is flat [51] - **Outlook**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lead contract decline 0.49% [53] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [53] - **Outlook**: Will operate within a range [53][54] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main tin contract rise 0.68% [55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is tight, and demand has shown some resilience [55][56] - **Outlook**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main nickel contract decline 0.02% [57] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are stable, production may be affected, and demand is weak [57] - **Outlook**: May oscillate [57] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw soybean meal down 0.33% and soybean oil up 0.60% [58] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil - mill压榨 is in a loss, and demand for both products has some improvement [58][59] - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures rose, and exports decreased in November [60] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Malaysian inventory is at a high level but may decrease, and domestic inventory is at a medium level [60] - **Outlook**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose [62] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Chinese rapeseed imports have decreased, and inventory is at different levels [62][63] - **Outlook**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures decline, and overseas cotton rose [65] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global and US cotton production and inventory have increased, and domestic supply pressure is high [65][67] - **Outlook**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic and overseas sugar futures decline [69] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Brazil is in the seasonal production - reduction period, India has strong production - increase expectations, and domestic imports are expected to be high [69][71] - **Outlook**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures oscillate at a high level [73] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is lower than last year, and quality is poor [73][74][75] - **Outlook**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] Hogs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main hog contract decline 1.16% [78] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is abundant, and demand is affected by the season. Inventory and cost are at certain levels [77][78] - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main egg contract decline 0.87% [82] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, but there are signs of improvement. Demand is weak [79][80][82] - **Outlook**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main corn contract decline 0.50% and the starch contract decline 0.96% [83] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Corn supply is abundant, and demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but inventory is high [83][84][86] - **Outlook**:

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock market, and various commodity markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their respective fundamentals [6][9][13]. Group 2: Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 0.33%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan on that day. From January to October, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. Group 3: Equities (Stock Index Futures) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures主力 contracts fell by 0.89%, 1.12%, 0.50%, and 0.26% respectively [8]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is low, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and there is room for repair. The risk of a sharp decline in the stock index is small, and investors can consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10][11]. Group 4: Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 929.46, down 2.49%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 11,933, down 3.57%. Japan's Q3 GDP showed a decline, while the EU raised its GDP growth forecast for the eurozone in 2025 [12]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see for long - entry opportunities [13][14]. Group 5: Ferrous Metals (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal and Coke, Ferroalloys) Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,090 - 3,230 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the price of rebar is likely to remain weak due to the weak demand from the real estate industry and high inventory. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound, and investors can consider shorting at high positions during the rebound [16]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot price of PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special powder was 680 yuan/ton [18]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, the rebound may face resistance. Investors can consider shorting at high positions [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, while the demand for high - priced coking coal has decreased. The fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price of coke has been implemented [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Technically, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can consider buying on dips [21]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.73% to 5,792 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 1.38% to 5,566 yuan/ton. The supply of manganese ore has decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Outlook**: The over - supply situation of ferroalloys has eased. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot is in the loss - making range [24]. Group 6: Energy (Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly and closed near the 5 - day moving average. The CFTC position report was suspended due to the US government shutdown. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased, and Russia was attacked, which affected the oil market [25]. - **Outlook**: Although the number of rigs has increased, the growth of US crude oil production is still uncertain. The attack on Russia is positive for oil prices, but there are still concerns about oversupply. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward. The expected supply of fuel oil is sufficient, but the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions have positive effects [28][29][30]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for the fuel oil主力 contract [31]. Group 7: Chemicals (Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Lithium Carbonate) Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed high - level loosening, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao adjusted. The average downstream industry start - up rate of domestic polypropylene increased slightly, and the demand for some packaging products increased [32]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [33]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract fell 0.14%. The price of raw material butadiene rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate of the high - cis butadiene rubber industry increased [34]. - **Outlook**: The price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate widely with limited downward space. Pay attention to the raw material and supply situation [34]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract rose 0.20%. The supply in domestic and overseas production areas is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year [35]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [35]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell 0.07%. The supply is still in excess, and the profit of the industrial chain has declined. The social inventory has decreased slightly [36]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the changes in exports and supply reduction after the festival [36]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract rose 0.79%. The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the industrial demand is insufficient. The inventory situation is different from the previous week's expectation [37]. - **Outlook**: The urea market is expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [37][38]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX主力 contract fell 0.76%. The PXN spread is relatively stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the cost is affected by the oil price [39]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX may fluctuate and adjust, with support at the bottom. Investors can participate in the range, pay attention to the oil price and macro - policies [39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601主力 contract fell 0.42%. The supply load has been adjusted, the demand of the polyester industry is relatively stable, and the processing fee has decreased [40][41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PTA may fluctuate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to the oil price [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 0.36%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand support is limited [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ethylene glycol may be under pressure. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602主力 contract fell 0.16%. The supply load is high, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2601主力 contract fell 0.24%. The processing fee has been adjusted, the supply load has decreased, the export growth has slowed down, but it is still at a high level [45]. - **Outlook**: In the future, bottle - chip is expected to fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks [45]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the主力 contract rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased [46]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Group 8: Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel) Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力 contract closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The US government shutdown ended, and China's economic data in October was weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the terminal demand is affected by high raw material prices [47][48]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [48][49]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力 contract closed at 21,625 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the alumina主力 contract closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The supply of bauxite is stable, the supply of alumina is loose, and the demand is weakening [50]. - **Outlook**: There may be a phased correction [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力 contract closed at 22,390 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the production of refined zinc has decreased, and the demand is average [52][53]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [53][54]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力 contract closed at 17,275 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The supply of primary lead is affected by maintenance, the production of recycled lead is growing slowly, and the demand is in the off - season [55]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to run within a range [55][56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the tin主力 contract fell 1.12% to 290,940 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows some resilience in emerging fields [57]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [57]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel主力 contract fell 0.71% to 116,990 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron is affected, and the demand is weak [58][59]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [59]. Group 9: Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil and Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal and Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn and Starch) Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.23% to 3,043 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.14% to 8,282 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower, and the US soybean production is slightly adjusted. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the inventory of soybean oil and meal has different trends [60]. - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, investors can consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise. For soybean oil, pay attention to long - entry opportunities at the low - cost support level [61]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by the exchange rate and export data. The domestic palm oil imports have decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level. The catering industry shows growth [62]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on dips [63]. Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by the US soybean market. The import of Canadian rapeseed has not restarted, and the inventory of rapeseed, meal, and oil in China has different trends [64]. - **Outlook**: For rapeseed oil, consider a long - biased strategy [65]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US Department of Agriculture raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and the demand is weak after the peak season [65][66]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to run weakly [66][67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Brazilian sugar production is in the seasonal decline period, while India has a strong production increase expectation. The domestic sugar production in the north has started, and the import volume is expected to be high in the fourth quarter [68][69][70][71]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [72]. Apple - **Market Performance**: The domestic apple futures are oscillating at a high level. The inventory is lower than last year, and the quality of this year's apples is poor [73]. - **Outlook**: Apple prices are expected to run strongly [74]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs has decreased. The supply may increase in the second half of the month, and the demand is expected to be weak in the short term [75][77]. - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds and pay attention to changes in consumption [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The price of eggs has decreased slightly. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level but may decline slightly in November. The consumption may be supported after the temperature drops [78]. - **Outlook**: Consider gradually closing short positions [79]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The corn主力 contract was flat, and the corn starch主力 contract fell 0.60%. The US corn production was adjusted downward, and the demand for corn shows a slight increase. The inventory of corn and starch has different trends [80][81]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [82].

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expect no trend - based market, maintain caution [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: Low risk of significant decline, consider buying at appropriate times [10][11] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term pricing is relatively full, take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [12][13] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices is hard to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to be weak in the short term. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Look for opportunities to buy on dips [18] - **Ferroalloys**: In the short term, supply may be in excess. Consider low - level long - buying opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [20][21] - **Crude Oil**: The Baker Hughes rig count has increased, but the increase in US crude oil production is still a long - term task. OPEC's suspension of production increase supports oil prices. Temporarily wait and see [23][24] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is expected to be sufficient, but there are also positive factors. Temporarily wait and see [25][27] - **Polyolefins**: Look for long - buying opportunities [28][29] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [30][32] - **Natural Rubber**: Look for long - buying opportunities [33][34] - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [35][36] - **Urea**: The downside space is limited [37][38] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: May fluctuate and adjust, with support below. Participate within the range and pay attention to crude oil changes [39][40] - **PTA**: May fluctuate. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [41] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42][43] - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate following costs. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Control risks [45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46][47] - **Copper**: Expected to fluctuate at a high level [48][49] - **Aluminum**: Expected to run at a high level [50][52] - **Zinc**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [53][54] - **Lead**: Expected to fluctuate strongly [55][56] - **Nickel**: Expected to fluctuate strongly [58] - **Tin**: Expected to fluctuate [57] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, look for long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range [59][61] - **Palm Oil**: Consider buying on dips [62][63] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Consider a buy - near and sell - far strategy for rapeseed meal [64][65] - **Cotton**: Expected to run weakly [66][67] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate [69][72] - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [73][76] - **Hogs**: Consider short - selling on rebounds [77][78] - **Eggs**: Hold short positions [79][82] - **Corn and Starch**: For corn, wait and see; for corn starch, it may follow the corn market [83][85] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 130 billion yuan [5] - **Analysis**: Macroeconomic data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Monetary policy is expected to be loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. Expect no trend - based market [5][6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results [8] - **Analysis**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and the risk of significant decline is low [10] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down 0.33%, and the silver main contract closed up 1.62% [12] - **Analysis**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The US labor market is slowing down, which is beneficial for precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the pricing is relatively full [12] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak fluctuations [14] - **Analysis**: In the long - term, the real estate industry is in a downward trend, and rebar demand is decreasing. In the medium - term, it is the traditional demand season, but inventory pressure is high [14] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly [16] - **Analysis**: Iron ore demand is falling, supply is increasing, and port inventory has exceeded last year's level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened [16] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to correct [18] - **Analysis**: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is weak. Coke supply is decreasing, and demand from steel mills is also weakening [18] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.41%, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.83% [20] - **Analysis**: Supply is in short - term excess, but costs are rising. Consider long - buying opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range [20][21] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward [22] - **Analysis**: The increase in US crude oil production is difficult, Russian production is below the quota, and OPEC's suspension of production increase supports oil prices [22][23] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward but was blocked by the 5 - day moving average [25] - **Analysis**: Long - term supply is abundant, and inventory is increasing. There are both positive and negative factors [25][26] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou mostly declined, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell [28] - **Analysis**: Terminal demand has increased due to e - commerce stockpiling, but new orders may decrease after the e - commerce event [28] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 1.51% [30] - **Analysis**: Raw material prices have fallen, supply is tight in some areas, and demand has slightly increased. Expected to fluctuate [30][31] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.56%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 0.12% [33] - **Analysis**: Supply is affected by typhoons, and demand from tire enterprises has slightly increased. Pay attention to production area conditions and demand expectations [33] PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.22% [35] - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied, but the downward space is limited. Pay attention to exports and supply reduction [35][36] Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.42% [37] - **Analysis**: Supply is increasing slightly, demand is affected by environmental protection, and profits are falling. Expected to decline slightly [37] Para - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX main contract fell 0.32% [39] - **Analysis**: Short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may oscillate and adjust with support below [39][40] PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract fell 0.17% [41] - **Analysis**: Supply and demand are in a state of mismatch, processing fees are low, and it may oscillate [41] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 0.77% [42] - **Analysis**: Supply is slightly reduced, inventory is increasing, and it may be under pressure in the short term [42][43] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 0.13% [44] - **Analysis**: Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is stable, and it may oscillate following costs [44] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract fell 0.35% [45] - **Analysis**: Raw material prices provide support, export growth is slowing down, and it may oscillate following the cost side [45] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.21% [46] - **Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, consumption is improving, and inventory is decreasing. Pay attention to consumption sustainability [46][47] Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.78% [48] - **Analysis**: Global copper mine supply is tight, demand is mixed, and it may oscillate at a high level [48] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 0.85%, and the alumina main contract fell 0.25% [50] - **Analysis**: Aluminum supply is in a complex situation, demand is differentiated, and it may run at a high level [50][51] Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.2% [53] - **Analysis**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are under pressure, demand is weak, and it may oscillate within a range [53] Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.8% [55] - **Analysis**: Lead concentrate processing fees are under pressure, supply recovery is affected, and demand has recovered slightly. It may oscillate strongly [55] Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 2.24% [58] - **Analysis**: Supply is tight, demand has some resilience, and it may oscillate strongly [58] Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.01% [57] - **Analysis**: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it may oscillate [57] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.03%, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.44% [59] - **Analysis**: Brazilian soybean planting progress is slow, oil factory压榨量 is falling, and inventory pressure is still large [59][61] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell after two days of gains [62] - **Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil exports are falling, inventory is at a high level, and it may decline seasonally. Consider buying on dips [62][63] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed rose slightly [64] - **Analysis**: There is no news of resuming the import of Canadian rapeseed. Inventory levels of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are different. Consider a buy - near and sell - far strategy for rapeseed meal [64][65] Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zheng cotton fell slightly, and international cotton fell 0.7% [66] - **Analysis**: China's cotton production is expected to be high, and international cotton is under seasonal pressure. It may run weakly [66][67] Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zheng sugar oscillated, and international raw sugar rebounded 2% [69] - **Analysis**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and China will face pressure from domestic and imported sugar. It may oscillate [69][72] Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [73] - **Analysis**: The opening price is higher than last year, inventory is lower, and the quality of late - maturing apples is poor. It may run strongly [73][76] Hogs - **Market Performance**: The national average hog price fell, and the main contract fell 0.55% [77][78] - **Analysis**: Supply pressure may increase in the second half of the month. Consider short - selling on rebounds [77][78] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas fell, and the main contract fell 3.25% [79][82] - **Analysis**: Egg production is at a high level, but supply may improve marginally. Consumption may be weak. Hold short positions [79][82] Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch main contracts rose slightly [83] - **Analysis**: New - season corn production is high, import may increase, and demand is slightly increasing. For corn, wait and see; for corn starch, it may follow the corn market [83][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It indicates that most products are expected to show a trend of oscillation, with some products having specific tendencies such as corn being expected to oscillate strongly, and pigs expected to oscillate weakly [1][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils - **Viewpoint**: Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was slightly higher than expected, while market sentiment improved. The market is expected to oscillate, with macro and industrial factors influencing the trend [5]. - **Logic**: Last Friday, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Recently, the expected domestic imported soybean arrivals are at a relatively high level in the same period, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. In terms of palm oil, the production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in October increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory was slightly higher than expected. In terms of rapeseed oil, as a large amount of Russian rapeseed comes on the market, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The double meal market oscillated, waiting for the guidance of the supply - demand report. It is expected that both US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will oscillate. One can buy on dips but not chase highs [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US government shutdown ended, and the supply - demand report may be released. The market expects that the US soybean yield may be lowered. Domestically, in the short term, the reduction of soybean meal inventory in oil mills is slow, and the spot and basis are weak. In the medium term, the procurement of December shipments is progressing, but the January imports are still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean gap in March 2026 [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: With downstream stocking and upstream reluctance to sell, the futures price broke through upwards. It is expected to oscillate strongly [7][8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices mostly rose. On the supply side, farmers' reluctance to sell increased due to cold weather, and the selling pressure has not been realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the increase in trade costs further supports the price. In the fourth quarter, the market is still in the stage of new grain listing pressure, and the selling pressure after "freezing" needs attention [7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price oscillates. It is expected to oscillate weakly, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, in the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of meat to pig price has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and the sustainability needs attention. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend [9][11]. - **Logic**: The rubber market rebounded in line with the commodity rebound rhythm. The macro - sentiment was positive, and the valuation of RU was lower than NR. The supply in overseas producing areas was affected by weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][13]. - **Logic**: The BR market rebounded slightly following natural rubber. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and temporarily stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the market atmosphere is still cautious [12][13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuated narrowly and oscillated. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range; in the long term, it may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the improvement of Sino - US trade relations is beneficial to cotton imports and textile exports in the long term but has limited short - term impact. In terms of supply and demand, the estimated output of Xinjiang cotton has been lowered, and the cost supports the cotton price, but there is a lack of new positive factors. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly. In the medium - long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production and export has ended, and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere has started. India, Thailand, and Brazil are all expected to increase production. Domestically, the sugar production in the new season is expected to increase, and the import is expected to be tightened, but the sugar price may decline as the new sugar supply increases [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures drive the spot, and the market is dominated by funds. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Logic**: The futures market is rising strongly, but the spot market shows insufficient follow - up. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the rise of packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, and the expected good production and sales of white cards and cultural papers. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, and the influence of warehouse receipts on pricing [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the new production capacity has increased the supply pressure, and the tender delay has limited support for the price. In the later stage, the concentrated start of tenders in November is expected to drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but the market may decline in December and January [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Domestic timber is being delivered successively, and the log market is operating at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. - **Logic**: The spot market of logs is under downward pressure due to factors such as traders' active inventory reduction and weak sales of integrated materials. The foreign quotation of New Zealand logs has been lowered, but the trading volume is still poor. After the peak season, the inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the downward space is limited [19].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 2.83% at $4123.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.70% at $50.41 per ounce [5] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil main contracts both rose 0.5%, at $60.05 and $63.95 per barrel respectively [6] - London base metals all rose, with LME copper up 1.47%, aluminum up 1.14%, tin up 1.00%, zinc up 0.95%, lead up 0.46%, and nickel up 0.27% [6] - As of the close on October 10 at 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with soda ash up nearly 2%, caustic soda and pulp up over 1%, and some falling, like rapeseed meal and glass down nearly 1% [6] 2. Important News Macro News - The State Council issued measures to support private investment, increasing support for eligible projects [9] - Fed's Daly said the U.S. economy may face weak demand, and tariff - related inflation is under control [9] - In October, new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 1.621 million, up 18.5% year - on - year and 8.5% month - on - month, with cumulative sales from January to October at 12.058 million, up 29.9% [9] - China and the U.S. suspended relevant 301 investigation measures for one year starting from November 10, 2025 [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 10, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory was 113,000 tons, down 6.61% from the previous period and up 7.62% year - on - year [12] - As of November 10, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7062 million tons, down 0.47% from last Thursday [14] - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market [14] - In September, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451,500 tons, down 5.45% from August and 1.78% year - on - year [14] - From November 10 at 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by 125 and 120 yuan per ton respectively [15] Metal Futures - In October 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 64.97%, down 1.05 percentage points month - on - month and 7.76 points year - on - year [17] - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 159,600 tons, with a slight increase [18] - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold ETFs added 79.015 tons, up 164.03% year - on - year, while gold consumption was 682.73 tons, down 7.95% [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain international board contracts from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026 [19] Black - Series Futures - From November 3 to 9, 2025, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2.7693 million tons, down 544,800 tons from the previous period [21] - In October 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 657,990 tons, down 26.52% month - on - month and 2.07% year - on - year [22] Agricultural Product Futures - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils was 2.2047 million tons, down 5.16% from last week and up 8.52% year - on - year [24] - In the 2024 - 2025 season, China's soybean imports were 109.37 million tons, and exports were 80,000 tons [25] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% (AmSpec) and 12.28% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [27][28] - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased 4.44% month - on - month, and production increased 11.02% [29] - From November 3 - 9, the average purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.21 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [30] 3. Financial Markets Finance - The Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on guidelines for public fund thematic investment style management [33] - On Monday, A - shares showed a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.53%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.18%, and ChiNext Index down 0.92%, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.55%, with southbound funds net buying HK$6654 million, and the cumulative net buying exceeded HK$5 trillion [33] - China Securities Index Company will release two new indices on November 11 [34] - Some people in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou were notified to pay additional taxes on overseas investment income [35] - TSMC's October revenue was NT$367.473 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year [36] Industry - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the seventh time this year [38] - Market regulators issued compliance tips for the "Double 11" online promotion [38] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a joint document on new - energy power systems [38] - In October, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, while new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales increased by 18.5% [38] - As of October, Shenzhen's second - hand housing transactions showed a stable trend [39] Overseas - The U.S. and Thailand reached a trade framework agreement [40] - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the U.S. to reduce tariffs to 15% [41] - Fed's Milan supported further interest - rate cuts [43] - San Francisco Fed President Daly said the U.S. economy may face demand decline [43] - U.S. container imports in October decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [43] - Japan's new government asked the central bank to postpone interest - rate hikes [43] - Japan plans to raise visa fees for foreign visitors in 2026 [44] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq up 2.27% [45] - European stocks rose, with the German DAX up 1.65%, French CAC40 up 1.32%, and UK FTSE 100 up 1.08% [47] - Goldman Sachs is bullish on Japanese and Indian stocks [47] - Vanguard increased its position in Tesla and Amazon in Q3 [47] Commodities - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 7.95% year - on - year, while ETFs added 79.015 tons [48] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain contracts and adjust the minimum redemption unit of "Bosera Gold ETF" [48] - International precious metal futures rose, and crude oil futures also rose [48] - London base metals all rose [50] Bonds - The domestic bond market strengthened, with the 30 - year Treasury futures up 0.22% [51] - The Ministry of Finance will issue up to 47.71 billion yuan of electronic savings bonds [51] - Hong Kong plans to issue multi - currency digital bonds again [52] - U.S. Treasury yields rose [52] Foreign Exchange - On Monday, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed up 50 points at 7.1175 at 16:30 [54] - Three RMB exchange - rate indices reached new highs since April [54] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close [54] 4. Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released on November 11, including Japan's September trade balance and UK's October unemployment rate [56] - There are also multiple events, such as central bank officials' speeches and industry forums [56]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire report are provided. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple sectors including bonds, stocks, commodities, and agricultural products, providing short - term trend forecasts and investment strategies for each sector. Overall, it suggests different stances such as caution, opportunistic trading, and waiting and watching depending on the market conditions of each sector [6][9][12]. 3. Summary by Sector Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. Given current macro data, economic recovery momentum, and market conditions, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day had mixed performance. With the domestic economy stable but weak recovery momentum, it is expected that there is little risk of a sharp decline, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had price increases in the previous trading day. Considering global economic trends, central bank actions, and market heat, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and watch [11]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day showed weak oscillations. In the medium - term, rebar prices are likely to remain weak due to supply - demand factors, and hot - rolled coil may follow a similar trend. Technically, there are signs of short - term stabilization, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day saw a sharp decline. The supply - demand situation has weakened, and the price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a slight correction. Technically, they may continue to be strong in the short - term, and investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had price declines. Supply is currently in excess, but there may be opportunities to go long at low levels considering cost and supply reduction expectations [21][22]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had a slight oscillation. Multiple factors affect the price, and it is recommended to wait and watch for the main contract [23][24][25]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a downward trend. Market supply expectations and external factors have different impacts on the price, and it is recommended to wait and watch for the main contract [26][27][28]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had different price trends in different markets. With the end of e - commerce activities, new orders may be insufficient, but there are still opportunities to go long [29][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. It is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space, and attention should be paid to raw material and supply changes [31][32]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had mixed performance. The price is expected to oscillate, and there are opportunities to go long [34][35]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [36][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected that the price will decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [38][39]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a range [40][41]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had an increase. The short - term supply is expected to decline slightly, but inventory may increase, and the price may be under pressure [43][44][45]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate following cost changes, and investors should pay attention to cost and policy adjustments [46]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. The price is expected to oscillate following cost changes, and investors should control risks [47]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high supply and improving demand, inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [48][49]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and there is a risk of short - term correction [50][51]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had mixed performance. The price is expected to run at a high level, but there is a risk of short - term correction [52][53][54]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day had a decline. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy can be adopted [55][56]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had an increase. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [57][58]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had an increase. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had a decline. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate [60]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different price trends. There are opportunities to exit long positions for soybean meal, and it is recommended to wait and watch for soybean oil [61][63]. - **Palm Oil**: The price has been falling. It is recommended to consider buying on pullbacks [64][65]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Canadian rapeseed increased. There are opportunities to buy near - term contracts and sell far - term contracts for rapeseed meal [66][67]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a stable trend. The price is expected to face pressure at high levels [68][70][71]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had an oscillating rebound. The price has support at low levels [72][74][75]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had an oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and watch [76][77]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. There are opportunities to short on rebounds [77][78]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had price increases. There are opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [79][80][81]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day had price increases. It is recommended to wait and watch for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [82][83][84].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given report Group 2: Core Views - The report covers various sectors including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing analyses and trading suggestions for each sector. For example, it expects that treasury bond futures may not have a trending market and advises caution; stock index futures are expected to have limited downside risk and suggests seizing opportunities to go long; precious metals are currently over - priced, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [6][9][11]. Group 3: Sector - Specific Summaries Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw mixed results for treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. China's October S&P manufacturing PMI showed a slowdown in the expansion trend. Given the current economic situation, treasury bond futures are expected to have no trending market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. With the release of new immigration and entry - exit policies, and considering the current economic situation (stable but with weak recovery momentum), combined with low domestic asset valuations and sufficient economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, it is expected that there is limited downside risk, and opportunities to go long can be seized [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures showed small increases. Fed officials' remarks suggest potential interest rate cuts. The complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the slowdown of the US labor market are all favorable for precious metals. However, due to the recent large increase in prices, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [11]. Commodities - **Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, steel product futures slightly declined. In the medium term, the price of steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still in a year - on - year decline, and the supply side has over - capacity issues. Considering the current high inventory, the price of rebar is expected to remain weak, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices during rebounds [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures significantly declined. The demand for iron ore has decreased, while the supply is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is rising. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the price of coke is facing an upward adjustment. From a technical perspective, the futures may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, ferroalloy futures showed small increases. The supply of ferroalloys is currently in a state of over - supply, but the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. There may be short - term disturbances in supply reduction expectations, and investors can consider long - position opportunities at low prices [21][22]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The increase in the number of US drilling rigs does not necessarily lead to an increase in production. US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC's decision to suspend production increases are all favorable for oil prices. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The recovery of Singapore's fuel oil supply is negative for prices, while the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26][27]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets showed some adjustments. In November, the impact of maintenance is expected to be high, and the inventory is low. November is the peak season for demand, so the market is expected to rebound. For now, it is recommended to wait and see [29]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The cost side is weak, and the price is expected to have limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes. The market is expected to oscillate [31][33]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply is affected by bad weather, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to production area conditions and demand expectations, and there may be long - position opportunities [34][35]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The current supply - demand situation is still oversupplied, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to export and supply reduction after the festival [36][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures declined. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to export policies and seasonal recovery signals of agricultural demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the downward space is limited [38]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures increased. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost side is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures increased. The supply side has some adjustments, and the demand side is relatively stable. The processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil prices [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. However, the demand is expected to improve, and the cost side sentiment is positive. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to port inventory and imports [41]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is improving, but the cost - driving force is limited. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle chip futures increased. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is increasing slightly, and the export growth is slowing down. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should control risks [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is also strong, with the inventory gradually decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation is in a stalemate, and the Fed's interest rate cut has a complex impact on copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and high prices suppress demand. The price is expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase [46][47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures showed mixed results. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter restrictions. High prices may suppress demand, but the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain at a high level [48][49][50]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures increased. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the production of refined zinc is limited. The demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [51][52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures increased. The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is recovering slowly. High prices suppress demand. The price is supported by low inventory and cost, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [53][54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand has certain support. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. The macro - environment has improved, but the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply of high - grade nickel ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [55]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal futures increased, and soybean oil futures decreased. Sino - US trade relations are expected to improve, and the Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is suppressed. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long - positions in soybean meal and wait and see for soybean oil [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the market is expected to be weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [61][62]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, cotton futures oscillated. Sino - US trade relations are favorable in the long - term, but short - term international cotton prices are under pressure. Domestic cotton has a strong production expectation, and the demand is neutral - weak. The price is expected to have limited upward space [63][64]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, sugar futures rebounded. Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts price rebounds. The domestic supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and the price has certain support at the bottom [65][66][67]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures declined. The quality of this year's apples is poor, and the opening price is higher than last year. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [69][70][71]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, live pig futures declined. The pig price is expected to be weak, and the supply is increasing. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [72][73]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [74][75]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and starch futures increased. The price of corn is affected by the rise in soybean prices. The inventory situation is complex, and the demand is growing slightly. The price of corn is expected to be under pressure, and starch may follow the trend of corn [76][77].