Core Insights - The main driver of rising yields is nominal economic growth, which is distinct from the yield increases caused by policy tightening [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current policy rates for an extended period, as indicated by Boston Fed President Susan Collins [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the December meeting outcomes is heightened due to a lack of official economic data, exacerbated by the government shutdown [1] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - Susan Collins emphasized that further easing should have a "high threshold" and suggested that policy rates may remain unchanged for a while [1] - Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson highlighted the need for caution as the Fed approaches neutral rates, indicating that the lack of data makes it prudent to be cautious [1] - There are currently 6 voting members supporting the maintenance of rates, while only 3 are in favor of a rate cut, with 3 non-voting members taking a wait-and-see approach [1] Market Reactions - The market's shift in expectations for rate cuts is driven more by the absence of data rather than positive economic indicators [1] - The current environment is characterized by a hawkish tilt in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) response mechanism, despite a lack of positive adjustments in economic outlook [1] - Risk assets are feeling uneasy due to this hawkish sentiment, contrasting with the ideal scenario of a dovish Fed and a strong economy [1] Economic Indicators - The stock market's recent performance has been supported by a loose Financial Conditions Index (FCI) and AI-related stocks [1] - A tightening FCI driven by hawkish tendencies, coupled with rising real yields, could lead to challenging times ahead for the market [1]

北京大学国家发展研究院教授卢锋表示，从长期供需结构来看，过去一段时间，中国供给能力持续跃 升，基础设施、新兴产业与高端制造等领域实现阶段性突破，体现了社会主义制度与市场机制协同发力 的优势，但供给快速扩张的同时也将长期隐藏的需求不足问题暴露出来。 为此，我国加大消费品以旧换新政策力度。统计显示，今年上半年，3000亿元专项债支持消费品以旧换 新助推社零提振。市场预计，此举对社零增速可以实现约0.7至0.8个百分点的提升作用。 《报告》提到，从国际比较来看，2024年中国的服务消费占比达到46%，基本恢复到2019年疫情前的水 平，但是跟美国、日本等发达国家相比，我国服务消费还有比较大的增长空间。"当前扩大服务消费应 建立'消费—物价—工资'良性循环，促进物价合理回升。"中国社会科学院金融研究所副研究员曹婧建 议。 展望未来，《报告》认为，宏观调控重心在于促进经济供需平衡和物价合理回升，提振名义经济增长。 一是提高名义财政赤字率，实施通货膨胀目标制货币政策，推动资源更多向中低收入群体、服务消费和 民营科创企业倾斜。二是房地产政策应出尽出，尽快稳定房价预期，化解头部房企流动性风险。三是促 增收、减负担、保休假，释 ...