展望2026年，中国资产具备全球相对配置吸引力，一方面中国股票尤其部分港股相对便宜，另一方 面当前全球整体低配中国，随着海外新一轮周期的启动，海外资金大概率会溢出到A股、港股优质股 票。同时，朱红裕也指出，居民风险偏好有待长期机制解决。过去一段时间老百姓的风险偏好没有明 显增加，数据显示权益方面增加的主要是波动相对较小的权益或是"固收+"，未来随着地产逐渐企 稳，有可能逐渐增加配置波动相对较大的权益资产。 日前，招商基金首席投资官朱红裕在红动中国2026财富前瞻论坛上发表了《预期差下的2026年权益 市场投资展望》的主题演讲。朱红裕认为，A股市场经过一轮周期性上涨，仍有部分板块与风格较为 低估，中国资产2026年具备全球配置吸引力，并重点关注四大主线机遇——具备全球竞争力的制造 业龙头、未来供需格局趋于改善的行业龙头、估值处于底部且基本面可能有较高变化的行业、长期盈 利回报较高且估值不匹配的行业龙头。 2026权益投资更注重安全边际与确定性 朱红裕指出，当前A股市场经过一轮周期性上涨后，部分板块与风格进入中后段。数据显示，当前A 股市场成交量和换手率比较活跃，但是现在这一轮行情中IPO发行、减持比较克制，因此 ...

回顾2025年，中国经济的底色没有改变，一直在延续修复式增长的状态。从短期运行看，2025 年前三 季度GDP累计同比增长 5.2%，尽管四季度面临高基数和外部冲击压力，但在政策加力支持下，全年将 实现 5%左右的增长目标。总体而言，2025 年宏观政策取向和经济运行基本符合此前预期，但通胀水平 明显低于预期。 展望2026年，作为"十五五"开局之年，内需扩张、政策持续宽松以及物价回升将共同支撑经济增长，预 计实际GDP增速仍可维持在5%左右。12 月 10 日至 11 日召开的中央经济工作会议分析了当前我国经济 运行面临的形势，并对2026年经济工作作出全面部署。会议指出，我国经济长期向好的基本趋势和支撑 条件并未改变；2026年要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合 理增长，保持社会大局稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 岁末年初，对于2026年，虽然宏观经济仍将维持修复增长的状态，但我们更加强调经济和政策层面的一 些新变化。那么，这种变化表现在什么方面呢？ 第一，名义经济增长明显改善。 从宏观基本面判断，虽然经济仍将继续延续修复增长的格局，但由于通胀回升，名义GDP增长将明显 ...

Core Insights - The main driver of rising yields is nominal economic growth, which is distinct from the yield increases caused by policy tightening [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current policy rates for an extended period, as indicated by Boston Fed President Susan Collins [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the December meeting outcomes is heightened due to a lack of official economic data, exacerbated by the government shutdown [1] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - Susan Collins emphasized that further easing should have a "high threshold" and suggested that policy rates may remain unchanged for a while [1] - Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson highlighted the need for caution as the Fed approaches neutral rates, indicating that the lack of data makes it prudent to be cautious [1] - There are currently 6 voting members supporting the maintenance of rates, while only 3 are in favor of a rate cut, with 3 non-voting members taking a wait-and-see approach [1] Market Reactions - The market's shift in expectations for rate cuts is driven more by the absence of data rather than positive economic indicators [1] - The current environment is characterized by a hawkish tilt in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) response mechanism, despite a lack of positive adjustments in economic outlook [1] - Risk assets are feeling uneasy due to this hawkish sentiment, contrasting with the ideal scenario of a dovish Fed and a strong economy [1] Economic Indicators - The stock market's recent performance has been supported by a loose Financial Conditions Index (FCI) and AI-related stocks [1] - A tightening FCI driven by hawkish tendencies, coupled with rising real yields, could lead to challenging times ahead for the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite facing external and internal challenges, China's economy showed a steady improvement in the second quarter, with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year, supported by resilient exports, recovering consumer demand, and the growth of new economic drivers [1][2][4] Group 2 - The main constraints on economic recovery are identified as persistent low prices and slow nominal economic growth, with CPI remaining around 0% for 27 months and PPI negative for 33 months, indicating a prolonged period of deflation [2][3] - The report highlights that while supply capacity has improved, it has also exposed long-standing demand deficiencies, prompting the government to enhance policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods, which is expected to boost retail sales growth by approximately 0.7 to 0.8 percentage points [3][4] Group 3 - Future macroeconomic policies should focus on balancing supply and demand, promoting reasonable price recovery, and boosting nominal economic growth through measures such as increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and implementing inflation-targeted monetary policies [4] - Recommendations include stabilizing housing prices, enhancing income, reducing burdens, and promoting service consumption, alongside a structured approach to urbanization and industry self-regulation [4]