文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 今年资本市场杀出一匹黑马，有色金属板块全年涨幅冲到行业第一，贵金属更是涨得让人眼花缭乱。 国际金价年内一度涨了不少，白银更夸张，单周就涨了15%，全年下来快翻倍了。 今天就来好好聊聊这波行情是怎么起来的，还有黄金市场现在吵得不可开交是咋回事。 说到有色金属这波上涨，金融属性的推动得先提一提。 美联储那边降息的风声从年初就没停过，到了年底预期越来越浓。 美元一弱，以美元计价的这些金属自然就水涨船高。 11月底还有个大消息，说鲍威尔可能要辞职，这一下市场直接炸了锅，都觉得2026年货币政策要更宽 松，贵金属当天就直线拉涨。 光有钱推动还不够，需求端也得跟上趟。 全球经济今年有点"再通胀"的意思，虽然复苏不算猛，但好歹是在往上走。 铜、铝这些工业金属的需求也就有了基础。 更关键的是，能源转型和人工智能这两个风口正好撞上了，电动汽车、光伏风电抢着要铜铝，AI数据 中心耗电厉害又得建电网，上游原材料想不火都难。 供给端这边更是把行情推上了高潮。 全球铜矿现在是老矿产量降，新矿又没几个能投产的，生产还老出问题。 国内的铝产能卡得更死，"双碳"政策把天花板钉得死死的。 这种供需失衡的情况，只要 ...

Summary of Huaxin Cement Conference Call Company Overview - Huaxin Cement is a leading domestic cement company with a major shareholder being LafargeHolcim, the largest cement company globally. The second-largest shareholder is the Hubei State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The management team is stable and experienced in industry operations. The total production capacity is approximately 126 million tons, including joint ventures. The company has established a presence in 12 countries, including Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Cambodia, Nepal, Tanzania, Libya, Botswana, Zambia, and Malawi, becoming a leader in the Central Asian and African markets. By the end of 2024, overseas production capacity is expected to reach 25 million tons [3][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Overseas Expansion**: Huaxin Cement has achieved an overseas production capacity of 25 million tons, with nearly 50% of total revenue coming from international markets, amounting to 8 billion yuan. The company is actively expanding through mergers and acquisitions and a light-asset model [2][6]. - **Aggregate Business**: The aggregate business is a significant profit source, contributing 50%-60% of total profits. Demand for aggregates is less correlated with the real estate cycle, making it more resilient. The company has a production capacity of approximately 285 million tons and sales of about 140 million tons, with 70% of sales coming from Hubei [2][4][5]. - **African Market Potential**: The African cement market has significant growth potential, with demand expected to increase by 2-3 times in the future. Huaxin Cement, leveraging advanced technology and management capabilities, is well-positioned for efficient expansion in Africa, supported by its major shareholder's international experience [2][6]. - **Acquisition in Indonesia**: The company announced an acquisition of an 80% stake in an Indonesian cement company for over 80 billion yuan, with a production capacity of 10 million tons and an expected annual output of 7 million tons. Although the static price-to-earnings ratio is high, there is substantial potential for profit improvement, with projections indicating profits could exceed 1 billion yuan by 2026 [2][8]. - **Strategic Development**: The company plans to continue expanding overseas through mergers and acquisitions and light-asset operations to reduce investment costs and improve returns. Projects in Nigeria are expected to contribute to profits by 2026, while the company aims to strengthen its presence in Central Asia and Southeast Asia [7][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Domestic Market Status**: The domestic cement industry is currently at a low point, with a 10% decline in production expected in 2024. However, improvements in profitability are anticipated due to falling coal prices and the implementation of production control measures. The company is well-positioned to benefit from regional demand increases driven by large infrastructure projects in Southwest China [10][11]. - **Profit Expectations**: The domestic cement industry is projected to turn from losses to slight profits in 2025, with profits per ton expected to recover to 10-15 yuan. The overseas market is expected to continue growing, supporting the company's positioning as a cyclical growth stock. The projected net profit for 2025 is 2.6 billion yuan, potentially reaching 3-3.5 billion yuan in 2026, indicating significant upside potential in valuation [12].

Summary of the Conference Call for Dekang Agriculture Industry Overview - The current period is considered a favorable time to invest in the pig farming sector as the downward price cycle has been resolved, with policy guidance and restored market confidence expected to drive stock prices higher [2][5] - The pig farming industry has completed initial scaling, with future competition focusing on leading enterprises, emphasizing management, breeding costs, and cash flow value creation capabilities [2][6] Company Profile: Dekang Agriculture - Dekang Agriculture is the sixth largest pig farming company and the third largest yellow chicken farming company in China, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 35% in pig output over the past three years, and an expected CAGR of nearly 25% over the next three years [2][7] - The company is projected to reach a pig output of approximately 11 million heads by 2025 and 15 million heads by 2026 [7] Business Model Innovation - Dekang has innovated a light asset model by outsourcing breeding to partner farmers, avoiding capital expenditures on sow farms while leveraging the same funds for greater operational leverage [2][10] - This model has resulted in a higher long-term return on assets, with an average return on equity (ROE) of nearly 12% from 2018 to 2024, compared to the industry leader at 19% [10][12] Financial Performance - In 2024, Dekang's net profit per pig was approximately 360 yuan, significantly above the industry average, with overall costs continuing to decline in 2025 [3][12] - The company’s sales net profit margin averaged around 10% from 2018 to 2024, with asset turnover rates being higher due to lower capital investment in sow farms [12] - The expected net profit before fair value adjustments for biological assets in 2025 is close to 3.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [14] Market Position and Valuation - Dekang's stock has shown significant growth in the Hong Kong agricultural sector, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 8 times for 2025, still below the industry average of 15 times [15][18] - The company is viewed as a cyclical growth stock with substantial valuation recovery potential, driven by rapid output growth and favorable pricing dynamics [16][18] Future Outlook - Dekang is expected to maintain rapid growth based on its innovative light asset farming model, supported by a favorable talent environment and strategic foresight [13] - The company’s poultry farming business is projected to maintain an output of around 90 million birds in 2025, with a conservative sales price expectation of 14.3 yuan per kilogram [13] Key Recommendations - Dekang Agriculture is recommended as a focus for investment due to its robust growth in poultry farming, reasonable sales price expectations, and significant growth in net profit before fair value adjustments [17][18] - The overall market confidence in the pig farming sector has improved, suggesting a potential catalyst for further growth in the coming months [16]