华新水泥 20250825 摘要 华新水泥在骨料市场上的表现如何？ 骨料是华新水泥的重要利润来源，占公司总利润的 50%至 60%。骨料需求结 构与水泥类似，但更偏向于非地产领域，占比约 87%，因此与地产经济周期联 动性较弱，需求韧性更强。骨料生产属于冷加工工艺，生产成本低且确定性强， 国内水泥行业受供给侧改革影响，产量下降，盈利能力改善主要来自煤 炭价格下跌和错峰生产。湖北地区在超产治理方面领先，西南地区基建 项目加速开工，有望拉动区域性需求，对华新水泥构成利好。 预计 2025 年国内水泥行业将扭亏为盈，海外市场持续增长。公司被定 位为周期成长股，具备向上期权。预计 2025 年净利润 26 亿元，2026 年可能达到 30-35 亿元，估值仍有上涨空间。 同时对矿产资源依赖较大。华新的优势在于其较早进入矿山资源布局阶段，使 得其拿矿成本显著低于同行业水平。例如，一些央企单吨矿泉成本约 7 元，而 华新的成本仅为 2 至 3 元。目前，华新的骨料产能约为 2.85 亿吨，销量约 1.4 亿吨，其中湖北占 70%。 华新水泥在非洲市场的发展前景如何？ 华新水泥海外产能达 2,500 万吨，已在中亚和非洲市 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Dekang Agriculture Industry Overview - The current period is considered a favorable time to invest in the pig farming sector as the downward price cycle has been resolved, with policy guidance and restored market confidence expected to drive stock prices higher [2][5] - The pig farming industry has completed initial scaling, with future competition focusing on leading enterprises, emphasizing management, breeding costs, and cash flow value creation capabilities [2][6] Company Profile: Dekang Agriculture - Dekang Agriculture is the sixth largest pig farming company and the third largest yellow chicken farming company in China, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 35% in pig output over the past three years, and an expected CAGR of nearly 25% over the next three years [2][7] - The company is projected to reach a pig output of approximately 11 million heads by 2025 and 15 million heads by 2026 [7] Business Model Innovation - Dekang has innovated a light asset model by outsourcing breeding to partner farmers, avoiding capital expenditures on sow farms while leveraging the same funds for greater operational leverage [2][10] - This model has resulted in a higher long-term return on assets, with an average return on equity (ROE) of nearly 12% from 2018 to 2024, compared to the industry leader at 19% [10][12] Financial Performance - In 2024, Dekang's net profit per pig was approximately 360 yuan, significantly above the industry average, with overall costs continuing to decline in 2025 [3][12] - The company’s sales net profit margin averaged around 10% from 2018 to 2024, with asset turnover rates being higher due to lower capital investment in sow farms [12] - The expected net profit before fair value adjustments for biological assets in 2025 is close to 3.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [14] Market Position and Valuation - Dekang's stock has shown significant growth in the Hong Kong agricultural sector, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 8 times for 2025, still below the industry average of 15 times [15][18] - The company is viewed as a cyclical growth stock with substantial valuation recovery potential, driven by rapid output growth and favorable pricing dynamics [16][18] Future Outlook - Dekang is expected to maintain rapid growth based on its innovative light asset farming model, supported by a favorable talent environment and strategic foresight [13] - The company’s poultry farming business is projected to maintain an output of around 90 million birds in 2025, with a conservative sales price expectation of 14.3 yuan per kilogram [13] Key Recommendations - Dekang Agriculture is recommended as a focus for investment due to its robust growth in poultry farming, reasonable sales price expectations, and significant growth in net profit before fair value adjustments [17][18] - The overall market confidence in the pig farming sector has improved, suggesting a potential catalyst for further growth in the coming months [16]