Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The beef price is expected to continue rising, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The pig industry is undergoing a "de-involution," which is likely to support long-term pig prices [1][3]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to benefit from seasonal demand recovery, with limited supply fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report highlights a steady increase in beef prices, with the average market price at 66.54 yuan/kg as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 8.83% [2][3]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 4% [1][3]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The report notes that the pig price is supported by industry adjustments, with a current price of 11.19 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 yuan/kg, down 0.45% week-on-week and down 24.13% year-on-year [1][3]. 2.2 Poultry - The price of broiler chickens is 7.19 yuan/kg, up 0.56% week-on-week, while chick prices are slightly down at 3.47 yuan/each [1][3]. - The report indicates that the supply of yellow chickens remains stable, with prices showing slight increases [1][3]. 2.3 Beef - The beef market is experiencing a new round of price increases, with expectations for a bullish cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decrease of 3% [2][3]. 2.4 Feed - The report emphasizes that the feed industry is benefiting from deeper industrialization and clearer division of labor, with leading companies expected to gain competitive advantages [3][4]. 2.5 Other Commodities - Soybean meal prices are stable, with a current price of 3100 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.98% [2][3]. - Corn prices are also on a mild upward trend, currently at 2254 yuan/ton, up 1.21% week-on-week [2][3]. 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Agriculture are rated as "Outperform" with respective prices of 4.36 yuan and 1.34 yuan [4]. - Mu Yuan Co. is highlighted with a projected EPS of 3.57 yuan for 2025, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [4].

行业产能去化动力持续增强，去化速度或加快。我国养猪行业产能近期略有下降，总体处于近年来较高 水平。据统计局数据，截至9月末，全国能繁母猪存栏4035万头，较上月末少3万头，较去年末高点少37 万头。行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养头均亏损135元，较前 一周多亏21元。 草根调研来看，由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫情防控，养殖业所面临 的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策信号，政策方面值得重 点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三重压力，行业去产能动 力预计将逐渐增强。 太平洋证券发布研报称，养猪行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养 头均亏损135元，较前一周多亏21元。由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫 情防控，养殖业所面临的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策 信号，政策方面值得重点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三 重压力，行业去产能动力预计将逐渐增强。 太平 ...

东莞证券指出，近期生猪价格回落，头均盈利持续亏损，有望倒逼能繁母猪产能去化，目前存栏仍处高 位，未来仍有较大去化空间。白羽肉鸡价格略有回升，关注养殖龙头盈利边际改善机会。种业方面，农 业农村部提出加快实现种业科技自立自强、种源自主可控。 太平洋证券指出，养殖业面临多重压力：生猪行业持续亏损，产能去化动力增强，能繁母猪存栏较去年 末高点减少37万头，自繁自养头均亏损114元，叠加非瘟疫情风险上升和政策引导减产能，行业去化加 速。白鸡方面，毛鸡价格低位震荡，祖代存栏处历史高位，但预计明年年中供给减少将带动价格反弹； 黄鸡受益消费旺季，产能低位支撑价格高位。动保行业景气回升，抗生素价格保持高位，国产疫苗增长 显著。 11月21日，截至9时54分，农牧渔ETF（159275）逆市上攻，场内价格现涨0.4%，成交额为143万元。 成份股方面，荃银高科20CM涨停，神农种业和中水渔业亦表现强势。另一方面，华英农业、益客食品 和冠农股份表现较弱。 消息面上，2025年11月14日行业数据显示生猪价格回落至11.74元/公斤，养殖利润持续承压，或加速上 游产能去化；同期白羽肉鸡价格回升至7.12元/公斤，养殖龙头盈利边际改善 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月17日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（182） 优于大市 肉牛价格有望持续上涨，奶牛产能或将去化加速 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 14 日生猪价格 11.73 元/ 公斤，周环比-1.5%；15kg 仔猪价格约 316.5 元/头，周环比+1%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 3.55 元/ 羽，周环比+3%；毛鸡价格 7.16 元/公斤，周环比+3%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。11 月 14 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 4.1/5.0/7.8 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +0.0%/-2.0%/+0.0%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。11 月 14 日，鸡蛋主 产区批发均价价 3.76 元/斤，周环比+2.31%，同比-27%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。11 月 14 日，牛 肉市场价为 66.63 元/kg，周环比-0.25%，同比+1 ...

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry in China is currently facing three pressures: declining market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy guidance, leading to an increased motivation for capacity reduction [1][2] - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month and 370,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] - The average price of live pigs was 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan from the previous week, while the average price of piglets increased to 23.62 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan [1][2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The price of broiler chickens is currently fluctuating at low levels, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.53 yuan/kg, while the average price of white feather broiler chickens is 13.8 yuan/kg [3] - The poultry industry is experiencing high production capacity, with the number of breeding chickens at historical highs, leading to increased supply and potential price stabilization in the medium term [3] - The yellow chicken prices have been relatively high due to seasonal demand recovery, with prices for Wen's yellow chicken at 13.33 yuan/kg and Lihua yellow chicken at 12.58 yuan/kg [4] Group 3: Animal Health Industry - The animal health industry has seen a recovery in market conditions since the beginning of the year, with major companies expected to report positive third-quarter results [6] - Prices for key antibiotics have remained high, with products like Tiamulin and Tylosin showing price increases compared to the first quarter [6] - There is a notable increase in sales of domestic cat trivalent vaccines, indicating growth potential in the market as domestic alternatives become more prevalent [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the large cycle in animal husbandry by 2025, with domestic beef and raw milk markets expected to experience upward momentum [2]. - The pig farming sector is supported by anti-involution measures, which are likely to stabilize long-term prices [2]. - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [2]. - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is expected to benefit from the recovery in aquaculture [2]. - The poultry sector is projected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from improved domestic demand [2]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Pig prices as of November 7 are 11.91 CNY/kg, down 5% week-on-week; 15kg piglet prices are approximately 314 CNY/head, up 4% week-on-week [1]. - Beef prices are on the rise, with the market price at 66.80 CNY/kg, up 0.85% week-on-week and 22% year-on-year [1][2]. Dairy - The average price of raw milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.01 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [2]. Feed - Domestic soybean prices are at 4012 CNY/ton, up 0.37% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices are at 3072 CNY/ton, up 0.85% week-on-week [2]. Poultry - White chicken prices are 6.95 CNY/kg, down 2% week-on-week, while yellow chicken prices are expected to benefit from improved domestic demand [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: Youran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Guangming Meat [3]. - Pig farming: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and others [3]. - Pet industry: Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [3]. - Feed: Haida Group [3]. - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and others [3].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 75.817 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.04% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.256 billion yuan, down 18.28% year-on-year. The net profit for Q3 alone was 1.78 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 65.02% year-on-year [1] Group 1 - The dual main business operations of pigs and chickens are performing well, effectively hedging against market risks associated with single business lines. The company sold 27.67 million pigs in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.3%. The total cost of pig farming in Q3 is estimated to be around 12.4 yuan/kg [2] - The company has seen stable growth in chicken sales, with 948 million chickens sold in the first three quarters, an increase of 9% year-on-year. A recovery in Q3 market conditions is expected to lead to a rebound in profits, with some recovery in the depreciation of chicken inventory [2] - The company's debt ratio decreased to 49.4% in Q3, enhancing financial safety and risk resilience. The dividend payout ratio of 38% reflects the company's confidence in navigating through cycles and its ability to return value to shareholders [2] Group 2 - The company has clarified its direction for international expansion in the chicken business and has organized a dedicated team to implement this plan. It is also working to boost the consumption and cultural promotion of traditional Chinese chickens [2] - The company is transitioning from a livestock farming enterprise to a food supply business, refining its operations into three main categories: livestock, ingredients, and food, based on the existing "Wens Food" brand [2] Group 3 - Long-term outlook remains positive for the company's dual main business model, with stable operations and a clear direction for future international expansion. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 91.449 billion, 109.772 billion, and 121.08 billion yuan, with net profits of 5.574 billion, 9.745 billion, and 13.621 billion yuan respectively. Corresponding PE ratios are expected to be 21.85, 12.50, and 8.94x, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3]

Core Insights - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Wens Foodstuff Group achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.256 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.29% [1] - In the third quarter, the company reported a net profit of 1.781 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 65.02%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.9% [1] Group 1: Performance Analysis - The continuous growth in live pig output has been noted, with the average price of pork experiencing a decline in the third quarter; however, the company's performance still showed a quarter-on-quarter increase, indicating robust profitability [1] - The chicken business is steadily expanding, with a recovery in chicken prices leading to improved profitability; specifically, the price of yellow chickens rose by 11% quarter-on-quarter, alleviating previous performance pressures caused by price declines [1] Group 2: Forecast Adjustments - Due to the current low prices of pigs and the expected proactive production adjustments, the forecast for profits in 2025 and 2027 has been revised downward, while the profit forecast for 2026 has been adjusted upward [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the adjustments in profit forecasts, reflecting confidence in its long-term performance potential [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to improve [4] - The pig industry is supported by a trend of "anti-involution," which is likely to stabilize long-term prices [4] - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [4] - The feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [4] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [4] Summary by Sections Swine - As of October 24, the price of live pigs is 11.82 CNY/kg, up 6.01% week-on-week [2] - The price of 15kg piglets is approximately 17.66 CNY/kg, down 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The industry is experiencing orderly progress in "anti-involution," which is expected to support profitability [14] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [2] - As of October 24, the price of chicken seedlings is 3.36 CNY/piece, up 2.13% week-on-week [15] - The price of broilers is 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [15] - Yellow chicken supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [15] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025 [2] - As of October 24, the average price of beef is 66.61 CNY/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week [16] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major production areas is 3.04 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates an acceleration in the reduction of dairy cows in Q3, potentially leading to a price turning point by year-end [3] Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium to long-term supply and demand are projected to strengthen [3] - As of October 24, the domestic soybean spot price is 3997 CNY/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week, and soybean meal is 2984 CNY/ton, down 0.86% week-on-week [3] Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain moderate increases [3] - As of October 24, the domestic corn spot price is 2249 CNY/ton, down 0.64% week-on-week, but up 0.10% year-on-year [3] Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on import rhythms and fluctuations in crude oil prices [3] - As of October 24, the spot price in Guangxi Nanning is 5750 CNY/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week [3] Rubber - Short-term prices are expected to stabilize, with a positive outlook for mid-term market conditions [3] - As of October 24, the price of Thai rubber is 1860 USD/ton, up 0.54% week-on-week [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to improve [4] - The pig industry is supported by a trend of "anti-involution," which is likely to stabilize long-term prices [4] - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [4] - The feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [4] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [4] Summary by Sections Swine - As of October 24, the price of live pigs is 11.82 CNY/kg, up 6.01% week-on-week [2] - The price of 15kg piglets is approximately 17.66 CNY/kg, down 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The industry is experiencing orderly progress in "anti-involution," which is expected to support profitability [14] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [2] - As of October 24, the price of chicken seedlings is 3.36 CNY/piece, up 2.13% week-on-week [15] - The price of eggs in major production areas is 3.69 CNY/jin, down 1.99% week-on-week and down 30.34% year-on-year [2][15] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025 [2] - As of October 24, the average price of beef is 66.61 CNY/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week [16] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major domestic production areas is 3.04 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2.88% year-on-year [3] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean spot price is 3997 CNY/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week, while soybean meal is priced at 2984 CNY/ton, down 0.86% week-on-week [3] Corn - The domestic corn spot price is 2249 CNY/ton, down 0.64% week-on-week but up 0.10% year-on-year [3] Sugar - The price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, is 5750 CNY/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week [3] Rubber - The price of Thai rubber is 1860 USD/ton, up 0.54% week-on-week, while full latex in Shandong is priced at 14700 CNY/ton, up 5.00% week-on-week [3]