Market Data Summary - **Commodities**: As of August 8, 2025, among commodities, coking coal had the highest weekly increase of 12.31% at a closing price of 1227.00, while crude oil had the largest decline of -7.22% at 489.80 [2]. - **Equities**: In the A - share market, the CSI 500 rose 1.78% to 6323.50, the SSE 50 increased 1.27% to 2789.17, and the S&P 300 was up 1.23% to 4104.97. Among overseas stocks, the Nasdaq Index climbed 3.87% to 21450.02 [2]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year government bonds declined by -0.51%, -0.88%, and -1.18% respectively, closing at 1.69, 1.41, and 1.55 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased 0.47% to 1.16, while the US dollar index dropped -0.43% to 98.27 [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, faster growth in July's US - dollar - denominated import and export year - on - year growth rates, and the extension of China - US trade negotiations. Bearish factors were the reduction of 800 million shares in ETFs tracking the S&P 300, and domestic economic deflation pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Out of 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were weak July credit data, expected central bank actions to balance funds, and weak US non - farm data. Bearish factors were potential new government bond supply and short - term equity market rebounds [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were high US refinery operating rates, inventory reduction, and OPEC+ under - production in July. Bearish factors were potential US - Russia talks and downward - revised US non - farm data [5]. Agricultural Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were better - than - expected July MPOB data and increasing biodiesel demand. Bearish factors were large Indonesian palm oil inventories and reduced Indian imports [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were the suspension of China - US tariffs, expected domestic policies to boost demand, and weakening US dollars. Bearish factors were increasing global copper inventories and weak domestic demand [6]. Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved processing orders and policy expectations. Bearish factors were weak spot market transactions and high inventory pressure [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were rising Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US non - farm data, and Chinese central bank gold purchases. Bearish factors were a key technical resistance level and potential Fed policy changes [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved market sentiment on coal over - production checks and high iron - water production. Bearish factors were weak real - estate and infrastructure demand [7]. Core View The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodities, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It provides a comprehensive view of different sectors' supply - demand, policy, and macro - economic factors affecting commodity prices [1].

Core Viewpoint - Recent slight fluctuations in the USD to CNY exchange rate have garnered significant attention, with the rate hovering around 7.14 as of July 13, indicating minimal change from the previous week, yet impacting various stakeholders including travelers, foreign trade enterprises, and US stock investors [2] Exchange Rate Status and Market Interpretation - As of July 13, the exchange rates are as follows: the central parity rate is 1 USD to 7.1475 CNY, the onshore rate is 7.1765 CNY, and the offshore rate is 7.1798 CNY, with the domestic and foreign price gap narrowing to 33 basis points, suggesting a convergence of market expectations [4] - Such minor fluctuations are common in the foreign exchange market, especially during periods of a strong dollar or fluctuating international economic data, and should not cause excessive panic [4] Impact on Different Groups and Response Strategies - Travelers and students abroad should monitor exchange rate trends and choose times with lower rates for currency exchange to save costs [4] - Foreign trade enterprises are directly affected by exchange rate changes, with depreciation allowing for more CNY upon settlement; it is advised to adopt batch settlement or hedging strategies based on order conditions and risk tolerance [4] - US stock investors and those dealing in USD should closely watch exchange rate points to maximize returns by buying at lower points and selling at higher ones [4] - Ordinary citizens are minimally affected by slight exchange rate fluctuations in their daily spending and need not focus excessively on these changes [6] Analysis of Exchange Rate Fluctuations - The recent slight fluctuations in the CNY exchange rate are primarily influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which directly impacts the strength of the dollar, and changes in international economic data [6][7] - Domestic economic data also plays a role in adjusting market expectations, indirectly affecting the CNY exchange rate [7] Long-term Outlook on RMB Exchange Rate - Despite experiencing some fluctuations, the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors including the international economic environment, domestic economic fundamentals, and foreign exchange reserve management, indicating stability without continuous depreciation or significant appreciation [7] Practical Tips to Avoid Currency Exchange Traps - A case study highlights that a student lost over 1,000 CNY due to not monitoring the exchange rate, which had increased by three cents from the previous day; this underscores the importance of tracking weekly exchange trends and utilizing services that lock in rates [8] Future Exchange Rate Outlook and Recommendations - In the short term, the dollar may continue to exhibit strong fluctuations, with the RMB exchange rate expected to oscillate between 7.1 and 7.2, which is considered normal; long-term stability is anticipated without significant volatility [9] - Investors are advised to remain rational and flexible, conducting currency exchanges or investments in batches according to their needs, and to avoid impulsive decisions based on short-term fluctuations [9]

Group 1 - The domestic economic data and the mid-year reports of listed companies will significantly influence market trends, with a focus on the potential impact of domestic policy changes [1] - The A-share market has benefited from the easing of international tensions, but macroeconomic conditions have not yet aligned for a strong upward movement, indicating a baseline scenario of market fluctuations [1] - The trading volume in both markets has decreased, with a total volume of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline from the previous week [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the previous trading range established in May and June, indicating a shift in market focus [1] - The market is currently experiencing a box range fluctuation and structural rotation, with the absence of substantial positive news making it difficult to achieve a decisive upward breakthrough in the short term [1] - The main market hotspots are concentrated in the real estate and electric power sectors, with small and mid-cap stocks leading in gains [1]

Group 1 - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, with the Israeli-Iranian military conflict showing signs of de-escalation and a ceasefire agreement in place [1] - The overall global capital markets have shown a rebound, with the domestic market's risk appetite significantly improving, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year [1] - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have strengthened, contributing to the positive market momentum [1] Group 2 - Last week, both stock exchanges experienced a volatile rebound, with average daily trading volume significantly increasing, surpassing 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous resistance levels from May and June, achieving a new yearly high, although it faced resistance near last year's fourth-quarter high [1] - Market hotspots last week were primarily concentrated in the military, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and non-bank financial sectors, with small-cap and technology stocks showing greater gains [1]