Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a sustained high average daily trading volume (ADT) in the A-share market, leading to increased confidence in the annual ADT forecast, which has been raised by 53% to RMB 1.53 trillion for 2025 [1] - The firm anticipates a year-on-year growth of 5% to 6% in ADT for 2026 and 2027, resulting in an average upward revision of 25%, 23%, and 20% for the earnings forecasts of covered Chinese brokers from 2025 to 2027 [1] - Increased trading activity is expected to boost brokerage commissions, margin interest, and operational leverage, with ample market liquidity supporting more financing activities [1] Company-Specific Insights - The report highlights that the improved market conditions will benefit firms like China International Capital Corporation (CICC), CITIC Securities, and GF Securities, which have strong underwriting, trading, and asset management businesses [1] - The average return on equity (ROE) for the brokerage sector is projected to rebound to 9% by 2026, with CITIC Securities and CICC expected to achieve ROEs of 10.7% and 9.4%, respectively [1] - Current forecasts suggest that investment income for CICC, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities will grow by 20%, 21%, and 11% this year, while East Money Information and China Merchants Securities may experience declines in investment income [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant trading volume of 3.13 trillion yuan on September 18, marking the fourth occurrence of 3 trillion yuan trading this year and the fifth in A-share history, indicating heightened market activity and volatility [1] Trading Volume Analysis - The trading volume of 3.13 trillion yuan is the fourth highest in A-share history, following previous high trading days of 3.47 trillion, 3.17 trillion, 3.2 trillion, and 3 trillion yuan on different dates [1] - The market has seen two additional days in September where trading volumes exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan, specifically on September 2 and October 9, 2024 [1] Market Performance Insights - Since June, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown strong performance, rapidly breaking through multiple hundred-point levels after short-term adjustments, which has led to increased profit-taking pressure as the market approaches key resistance points [1] - The market is currently experiencing heightened volatility as it navigates critical resistance levels, suggesting potential for continued fluctuations within the current range [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market has achieved a record trading volume, surpassing 2 trillion yuan for 8 consecutive days from August 13 to August 22, breaking the previous record of 7 consecutive days in November 2024 [1][1][1] Trading Volume - As of August 22, the total trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 2 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone in trading activity [1][1] - The previous record for consecutive days with trading volumes over 2 trillion yuan was set from November 5 to November 13, 2024 [1][1] High-Volume Stocks - A total of 9 stocks have recorded trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan, including: - Dongfang Wealth - ZTE Corporation - SMIC - Northern Rare Earth - Cambrian Biologics - Haiguang Information - Zhongke Shuguang - Zhaoyi Innovation - Lanston Information [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the eighth consecutive trading day, setting a historical record for A-shares [1] - As of the time of reporting, the trading volume has increased by over 70 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with an estimated total trading amount of nearly 2.5 trillion yuan for the day [1] - Previously, from November 5 to 13, 2024, the A-share market had also seen trading volumes surpassing 2 trillion yuan for seven consecutive days [2]

Market Data Summary - **Commodities**: As of August 8, 2025, among commodities, coking coal had the highest weekly increase of 12.31% at a closing price of 1227.00, while crude oil had the largest decline of -7.22% at 489.80 [2]. - **Equities**: In the A - share market, the CSI 500 rose 1.78% to 6323.50, the SSE 50 increased 1.27% to 2789.17, and the S&P 300 was up 1.23% to 4104.97. Among overseas stocks, the Nasdaq Index climbed 3.87% to 21450.02 [2]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year government bonds declined by -0.51%, -0.88%, and -1.18% respectively, closing at 1.69, 1.41, and 1.55 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased 0.47% to 1.16, while the US dollar index dropped -0.43% to 98.27 [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, faster growth in July's US - dollar - denominated import and export year - on - year growth rates, and the extension of China - US trade negotiations. Bearish factors were the reduction of 800 million shares in ETFs tracking the S&P 300, and domestic economic deflation pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Out of 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were weak July credit data, expected central bank actions to balance funds, and weak US non - farm data. Bearish factors were potential new government bond supply and short - term equity market rebounds [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were high US refinery operating rates, inventory reduction, and OPEC+ under - production in July. Bearish factors were potential US - Russia talks and downward - revised US non - farm data [5]. Agricultural Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were better - than - expected July MPOB data and increasing biodiesel demand. Bearish factors were large Indonesian palm oil inventories and reduced Indian imports [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were the suspension of China - US tariffs, expected domestic policies to boost demand, and weakening US dollars. Bearish factors were increasing global copper inventories and weak domestic demand [6]. Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved processing orders and policy expectations. Bearish factors were weak spot market transactions and high inventory pressure [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were rising Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US non - farm data, and Chinese central bank gold purchases. Bearish factors were a key technical resistance level and potential Fed policy changes [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved market sentiment on coal over - production checks and high iron - water production. Bearish factors were weak real - estate and infrastructure demand [7]. Core View The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodities, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It provides a comprehensive view of different sectors' supply - demand, policy, and macro - economic factors affecting commodity prices [1].