行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 11 月 25 日 策略会重点公司更新；车展重点公 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 汽车 司更新 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W133） 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 ⚫ 优信：新店盈利爬坡速度超预期，很重要的一个原因就是品牌建立起来（二手车为非标 产品，建立信任困难和且成本高），所以一旦品牌建立起来以后，盈利弹性非常大，行 业向好的情况下，盈利天花板可能也会远超预期，持续推荐。 ⚫ 上汽集团：明年的看点仍主要是华为，尚界 H5 反响一般的一个很重要的原因就是其用 户定位和宣传没有精准定位到目标人群，但是我们认为明年的新车会有调整，可能带来 布局机会。其次上汽通用五菱的华境我们认为是华为的第 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector relative to the market benchmark [3][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong sales performance across key companies in the automotive sector, with notable increases in profitability and sales volumes for brands like BYD, Geely, and SAIC [3][4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and state-owned enterprise reforms as key drivers for investment opportunities in the automotive industry [3][4]. - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong performance metrics and growth potential, particularly in the context of electric vehicles and smart technology [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Performance - BYD reported Q3 sales of 1.11 million units, with an estimated profit of approximately 8.5 billion, indicating a recovery in per-vehicle profitability to around 8,000 [3][4]. - Geely's Q3 sales showed a strong increase, particularly in mid-to-high-end models, with expected profits around 3.5 billion [3][4]. - NIO's Q3 sales reached 87,000 units, with a projected loss of about 2.5 billion, although gross margins are expected to improve [3][4]. - SAIC Group's Q3 profits are anticipated to be around 3.5 billion, supported by strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [5]. - Other companies like Xpeng and Li Auto are also highlighted for their sales growth and strategic partnerships, which may enhance future profitability [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading domestic manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Xpeng, as well as companies involved in smart technology like JAC Motors and Seres [3][4]. - It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises like SAIC and Dongfeng for potential consolidation opportunities [3][4]. - For component manufacturers with strong growth prospects, companies like Fuyao Glass and Silver Wheel are recommended due to their robust performance and international expansion capabilities [3][4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on technology-driven growth and the potential of intelligent vehicles [3]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter is expected to see a surge in market demand due to tightening subsidy limits, with a focus on companies that can effectively release supply, such as Geely, BYD, Great Wall, Li Auto, and NIO [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technology as a primary driver for excess returns, recommending companies in robotics, AI, and low-altitude economy sectors [3]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Kobot, Xingyu, Jifeng, and Songyuan, alongside those with recovering performance and attractive valuations like Minth and Ningbo Huaxiang [3]. Industry Updates - In the 40th week of 2025, retail sales of passenger cars totaled 469,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 27.85% but a year-on-year increase of 16.64%. Traditional energy vehicles sold 234,000 units, while new energy vehicles sold 235,000 units, with a penetration rate of 50.11% [3]. - The automotive industry index closed at 7653.53 points, down 5.99% for the week, which is a greater decline compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 2.22% [15][18]. - The report notes a decrease in raw material prices for both traditional and new energy vehicles, with traditional vehicle raw material prices down 2.0% week-on-week and 4.0% month-on-month [3]. Market Situation - The total transaction value of the automotive industry for the week was 695.481 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 4.20% [3]. - A total of 43 stocks in the automotive sector rose, while 228 fell, with the largest gainers being Haima Automobile, Meichen Technology, and Fute Technology, which rose by 19.2%, 16.8%, and 13.0% respectively [20]. Key Events - The launch of the first full-size SUV, Leapmotor D19, which features both pure electric and range-extended versions, was highlighted, showcasing advanced technology and design [4][44]. - The World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference was held in Beijing, focusing on industry opportunities and future directions, emphasizing China's advantages in policy support and infrastructure for intelligent vehicles [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive parts industry, suggesting a focus on bottom opportunities as the sector has been performing well for over a month [1][3]. Core Insights - The robotics sector has been driven by the Tesla supply chain since mid-August, indicating a potential for further growth in related automotive parts [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of fundamental and marginal changes in performance as third-quarter results are about to be released, recommending specific companies for investment [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Insights - **Xingyu Co., Ltd.**: The company is shifting its strategic focus from domestic new energy vehicle clients to expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Europe. Collaborations with major clients like Volkswagen and BMW are strengthening, with expectations to secure headlight projects by the end of this year or next. The overseas factory is projected to ramp up production starting in 2027, becoming a new growth source by 2028. The domestic market growth from 2025 to 2027 is anticipated to come from the adoption of high-end headlights by new energy vehicle clients [2][4]. - **Changshu Automotive Trim**: The company is focusing on applications of PEEK materials, leveraging its core capabilities in injection molding. A recent strategic partnership with a Dutch sensor company aims to develop next-generation tactile sensing technology for automotive and robotics manufacturing, indicating a shift towards electronics [5]. - **Ningbo Huaxiang**: The company is entering the robotics sector through a unique ODM model, which is relatively scarce. If strategic partnerships with major clients deepen, revenue growth in its robotics business is expected to be supported. The company has a first-mover advantage in PEEK materials, potentially leading to cost benefits [5]. - **Daimay Co., Ltd.**: As an interior parts supplier, Daimay's capabilities align with the transformation into biomimetic materials and robotic skin. Being a supplier for Tesla and having a mature overseas base suggests potential interest or developments in the robotics field [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and XPeng, as well as companies with strong performance growth and robotics layouts like Fuyao Glass, New Spring, and others [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive parts industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector is experiencing a sustained rally, driven by developments in the robotics sector, particularly influenced by Tesla's supply chain. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring Tesla's dynamics and suggests focusing on bottom opportunities as many stocks in the sector have reached relatively high levels [2][3]. - Key companies to watch include Xingyu, Changshu Automotive Trim, Daimay, and Ningbo Huaxiang, which are expected to benefit from upcoming quarterly performance releases and fundamental changes [2][3]. Company Summaries Xingyu - Xingyu is shifting its strategic focus from domestic new energy vehicle clients to expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Europe, with strengthened collaborations with Volkswagen and BMW. The company anticipates securing headlight project designations by the end of this year or next year, with production ramping up in overseas factories starting in 2027 [4]. - The domestic market growth from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be driven by the adoption of high-end headlights by new energy vehicle clients, with potential increases in per-vehicle value from over 1,000 yuan for standard LEDs to over 4,000 yuan for HD headlights and even 10,000 yuan for DLP headlights [4]. - The competitive landscape is favorable for domestic leaders like Xingyu, as international competitors face operational pressures, providing a conducive environment for growth [4]. Changshu Automotive Trim - The company is focusing on applications involving PEEK materials, leveraging its core capabilities in injection molding. A recent strategic partnership with a Dutch sensor company aims to develop next-generation tactile sensing technology for automotive and robotics manufacturing, with plans for mass production in China [5]. Ningbo Huaxiang - Ningbo Huaxiang is entering the robotics sector through its unique ODM model, which is considered rare. The company has established a presence in the PEEK materials field, which may yield cost advantages. Expected profits for next year are around 1.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 20 times for 2026 [5]. Daimay - As an interior parts supplier, Daimay's capabilities align with the transformation into biomimetic materials and robotic skin. The company is a supplier for Tesla and has a mature overseas customer base, suggesting potential developments in the robotics field [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and XPeng, as well as companies with strong performance growth and capabilities in robotics or overseas expansion, including Fuyao Glass, Xinquan, Fuda, Shuanghuan Transmission, and Yinlun [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing robust growth, with production and sales figures for July-August 2025 showing increases of 13.1% and 15.6% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - Domestic brands are leading the market, capturing a retail share of 66.2%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while new energy vehicles (NEVs) continue to see significant growth [3]. - The average industry discount rate has decreased, indicating reduced terminal concessions [3]. - Raw material prices for traditional and new energy vehicles have risen, impacting supply chain profitability [3]. - Profitability among automakers varies significantly, with some companies like Leap Motor and Xpeng showing substantial profit growth, while others like BYD and Li Auto are facing declines [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In July-August 2025, total automotive production and sales reached 5.406 million and 5.45 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 13.1% and 15.6% [3]. - Passenger vehicle production and sales were 4.793 million and 4.827 million units, reflecting increases of 12.7% and 15.6% year-on-year [3]. - Commercial vehicle sales reached 613,000 and 622,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 16.3% and 15.2% [3]. - Exports totaled 1.313 million units, up 34.0% year-on-year, with NEV exports alone reaching 449,000 units, a remarkable increase of 110.8% [3]. Market Share - Domestic brands accounted for 66.2% of retail sales in July-August 2025, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while joint venture brands remained stable and luxury brands saw a decline of 13.6% [3]. - NEV wholesale figures reached 2.471 million units, up 23.7% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 66.2% for domestic brands in August [3]. Pricing and Costs - The average industry discount rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 13.73% in Q3 2025, with variations among brand categories [3]. - Prices for traditional raw materials such as steel, aluminum, and rubber increased, while battery materials like nickel and lithium also saw price fluctuations [3]. Company Performance - Profit growth among automakers varied significantly, with Leap Motor (+142% to +144%) and Xpeng (+91% to +92%) leading, while BYD (-21% to -16%) and Li Auto (-95% to -91%) faced declines [4]. - Component manufacturers also showed strong profit growth, with companies like Jingwei Hirain (+146% to +150%) and Jifeng (+120% to +121%) performing well [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in strong domestic manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Xpeng, as well as companies involved in smart technology and central enterprise reforms [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, highlighting potential opportunities in companies with strong performance and growth potential, particularly in the technology and high-end sectors [3][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the fourth quarter will see a surge in market demand due to tightening subsidy limits, with a focus on companies capable of effectively releasing supply, such as Geely, BYD, Great Wall, Li Auto, and NIO [3]. - It suggests that in an uncertain consumer environment, attention should be directed towards "future industries" where technology continues to create excess returns, recommending companies in robotics, AI, and low-altitude economy sectors [3]. - The report also notes significant changes due to state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly in companies like SAIC and Dongfeng, which should be monitored closely [3]. Industry Situation Update - In the 39th week of 2025, retail sales of passenger cars reached 650,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 27.95% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.02%. Traditional energy vehicle sales were 280,000 units, up 32.70% month-on-month but down 15.07% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales were 370,000 units, up 24.58% month-on-month and up 13.15% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 56.92% [3]. - The report indicates that raw material prices for traditional and new energy vehicles have risen recently, with traditional vehicle raw material price index increasing by 0.8% week-on-week and decreasing by 1.3% month-on-month, while the new energy vehicle raw material price index increased by 1.2% week-on-week and 1.8% month-on-month [3][47]. Market Situation Update - The total transaction value of the automotive industry this week was 266.97 billion yuan, with a daily average decrease of 29.72%. The automotive industry index closed at 8141.23 points, down 1.26% for the week, which is a larger decline compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 0.51% [3][11]. - Among individual stocks, 132 rose while 135 fell, with the largest gainers being Meili Technology, Jinlong Automobile, and Kabeiyi, which increased by 18.9%, 13.7%, and 13.2% respectively. The largest decliners were Mingxin Xuteng, Meichen Technology, and Hengshuai Co., which fell by 18.5%, 17.1%, and 10.6% respectively [3][16]. Important Events - The report highlights several key events, including the announcement of the 400th batch of new car approvals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which includes models from Anhui Volkswagen, Leap Motor, and others [4][29]. - It also notes the joint announcement by three departments regarding the technical requirements for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles from 2026 to 2027 [7][8]. - Additionally, the Shanghai government has adjusted the rules for the vehicle trade-in subsidy program, which will be implemented from October 13, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [9][10]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies that exemplify the trend towards smart technology, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [3]. - It suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise consolidations, particularly with SAIC Group, Dongfeng Group, and Changan Automobile [3]. - The report also highlights component manufacturers with strong performance growth and overseas expansion capabilities, recommending companies like Fuyao Glass, New Spring, and others [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing robust growth, with production and sales figures for July-August 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 13.1% and 15.6%, respectively [3]. - Domestic brands are leading the market, with a retail share of 66.2% in July-August 2025, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report highlights a decrease in industry discount rates, indicating reduced terminal concessions, with an average discount rate of 13.73% in Q3 2025 [3]. - The prices of traditional raw materials and new energy raw materials have increased, impacting the cost structure of automotive companies [3]. - The profitability of various automotive companies is diverging, with significant differences in net profit growth rates among them [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total production and sales of automobiles reached 5.406 million and 5.45 million units in July-August 2025, respectively, marking a steady growth trend [3]. - Exports of automobiles reached 1.313 million units, with a remarkable 34% year-on-year increase, particularly in the new energy sector, which saw a 110.8% increase in exports [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the penetration rate of domestic brand new energy vehicles reached 66.2% in August 2025, driven by supportive policies [3]. - The average discount rate for the industry decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 13.73% in Q3 2025, with variations among different brand categories [3]. Company Performance - The report provides a detailed forecast of net profit for key automotive companies in Q3 2025, with significant variations in growth rates, such as a 146% to 150% increase for Jingwei Hengrun and a -285% to -276% decrease for Jianghuai Automobile [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of component manufacturers, with several companies reporting over 50% year-on-year net profit growth [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading domestic manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and XPeng, as well as companies involved in smart technology and state-owned enterprise reforms [3]. - It highlights the importance of companies with strong growth potential and capabilities in robotics and overseas expansion, recommending firms like Fuyao Glass and Xinquan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, emphasizing the importance of technology and mid-to-high-end market segments as key investment themes [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a surge in vehicle sales driven by limited subsidies in Q4, with a focus on companies capable of effectively releasing supply, such as Geely, BYD, Great Wall, Li Auto, and NIO [4]. - It suggests that in an uncertain consumer environment, attention should be directed towards "future industries" like robotics, AI, and low-altitude economy, recommending companies with strong growth potential and relatively low valuations [4]. - The report notes that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 56.92%, with total retail sales of passenger cars at 650,000 units in the 39th week of 2025, reflecting a 27.95% increase month-over-month but a slight decline year-over-year [4][5]. Industry Updates - The report indicates that traditional energy vehicle sales were 280,000 units, up 32.70% month-over-month but down 15.07% year-over-year, while new energy vehicle sales were 370,000 units, up 24.58% month-over-month and up 13.15% year-over-year [4]. - Recent weeks have seen an increase in raw material price indices for both traditional and new energy vehicles, with traditional vehicle raw material prices rising by 0.8% week-over-week and decreasing by 1.3% month-over-month [4][52]. Market Situation - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 266.97 billion yuan, with the automotive industry index closing at 8141.23 points, down 1.26% for the week, which is a greater decline compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [4][13]. - The report notes that 132 automotive stocks rose while 135 fell, with the largest gainers being Meili Technology, Jinlong Automobile, and Kabeiyi, while the largest decliners included Mingxin Xuteng, Meichen Technology, and Hengshuai Co., Ltd. [4][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies involved in intelligent trends like Huawei's HarmonyOS [4]. - It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly with SAIC and Dongfeng, and highlights component manufacturers with strong growth prospects and overseas expansion capabilities [4]. Important Events - The report mentions the release of the 400th batch of new vehicle applications by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which includes several anticipated models [5][31]. - It also discusses the joint announcement by three departments regarding the technical requirements for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles from 2026 to 2027 [8][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [11]. Core Insights - Recent communications with overseas investors reveal a difference in perception compared to domestic investors, with overseas investors focusing more on the long-term global competitiveness of Chinese automotive companies rather than short-term domestic market fluctuations. They view investments in companies like BYD as a hedge against their local automotive industry [4][5]. - There is a strong interest from overseas investors in new technological trends within the Chinese automotive industry, particularly in smart driving and robotics. Positive feedback has been noted regarding the advanced driving assistance features from brands like Xpeng and Li Auto, suggesting potential valuation growth for companies with core technologies and global capabilities [5]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for strong automotive manufacturers capable of successful international expansion and component manufacturers with product and cost advantages [5]. Summary by Sections Overseas Investors - Overseas investors are more concerned with the long-term competitiveness and globalization strategies of Chinese automotive companies, particularly BYD, which is expected to maintain a market cap above 750 billion RMB unless there are significant changes in its global strategy [4]. Technological Trends - The report highlights the growing interest in smart driving technologies among overseas investors, who have provided positive feedback on the driving assistance technologies of brands like Xpeng and Li Auto. This trend is expected to create new valuation opportunities for companies with strong technological capabilities [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on two main themes: technology and state-owned enterprise reform. Specific recommendations include: 1. Strong domestic manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and Xpeng [5]. 2. Companies aligned with the trend of smart technology, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, with a focus on Li Auto, Kobot, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hirun [5]. 3. State-owned enterprise consolidations, recommending attention to SAIC Motor, Dongfeng Motor, and Changan Automobile [5]. 4. Component manufacturers with strong performance growth and overseas expansion capabilities, recommending Fuyao Glass, New Spring, Fuda, Shuanghuan Transmission, and Yinlun [5].