Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices are set to experience the largest drop of the year, with 92-octane gasoline expected to decrease by 0.24 CNY per liter, bringing the national average below 6.8 CNY for the first time in four years [1][3]. Price Changes - The current average price of 92-octane gasoline is around 7.04 CNY per liter, and after the price adjustment, it will no longer be in the "yuan era" [3]. - Compared to the beginning of the year when prices were over 8 CNY, filling a tank now saves over 60 CNY, equivalent to the cost of two cups of milk tea [3]. - The price difference for 98-octane gasoline varies significantly across regions, with prices in Guangdong at 9.66 CNY and in Gansu at 8.09 CNY, a difference of 1.5 CNY [5]. International Oil Prices - Despite a 7% rebound in international oil prices this week, domestic prices continue to decline, with the current adjustment expected to reach a drop of 290 CNY per ton, totaling a decline of 670 CNY per ton for the year [3][5]. - Brent crude oil has recently reached 65.94 USD per barrel, indicating a disparity between domestic and international pricing mechanisms [5]. Market Dynamics - The current domestic fuel pricing reflects the average international prices from two weeks prior, highlighting a lag in the domestic pricing mechanism [5]. - Transportation costs contribute significantly to regional price differences, with diesel in Tibet priced at 7.25 CNY per liter, nearly 1 CNY higher than in Shandong [5]. Future Outlook - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of low fuel prices, especially with rising geopolitical risks that could affect oil exports and potentially increase international crude prices [5][6]. - The current low prices may not last long, prompting speculation about how long the 6 CNY range will be maintained [6].

Macro Economy - The user base for generative artificial intelligence in China reached 515 million as of June this year, with AI patent applications totaling 1.576 million, accounting for 38.58% of the global total, ranking first worldwide [2] - In the first eight months of this year, the average settlement rate for foreign trade enterprises in China was 53.7%, a slight increase of approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the annual average of last year [2] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued guidelines proposing 17 specific measures to promote high-quality development in the accommodation industry, including the creation of cultural theme hotels and the upgrade of facilities for the elderly [2] Investment News - UBS Wealth Management upgraded its global stock rating to "attractive," citing stronger-than-expected economic growth, easing tariff pressures, and a robust investment cycle driven by artificial intelligence. UBS also raised its rating on Chinese tech stocks to the most attractive, expressing increasing confidence in their ability to monetize AI [3] - As of June 30, 2025, approximately 30 AI-related stocks in the S&P 500 accounted for 43% of the total market capitalization, significantly up from 26% when ChatGPT 3.5 was released in November 2022 [3] - Domestic coffee machine sales in China reached 1.683 million units from January to August, marking a year-on-year increase of 75.6%. The market size for coffee machines in China is expected to reach 10.6 billion yuan by 2029, with an estimated annual compound growth rate of 28% [3] Company Movements - A representative from Wingtech Technology responded to the incident where the employee system access of its subsidiary, Anshi Semiconductor (China), was fully interrupted, stating that the accounts of the Anshi China team were suspended for unknown reasons, with partial recovery currently underway [5] - On the 18th, Air China reported an incident on flight CA139 from Hangzhou to South Korea, where a lithium battery in a passenger's carry-on luggage caught fire, but no injuries were reported, and the aircraft made an emergency landing at Shanghai Pudong Airport [5] - Honor is intensifying its AI strategy and technology, officially launching the "self-evolving AI native phone" - Honor Magic8 series, and previewing a futuristic robot phone called "ROBOT PHONE" [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has raised concerns among investors, with predictions indicating a potential drop to 600 yuan per gram by 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Predictions - The spot gold price in Shanghai has fallen from 834.6 yuan per gram in April to 765 yuan per gram, with brand gold jewelry prices dropping below 900 yuan per gram [1]. - On July 8, spot gold experienced a significant drop of 1.02%, reaching a low of 3298.7 USD per ounce (approximately 780 yuan per gram), marking a 6% decline from the April peak of 3509 USD [2]. - Analysts predict that if gold prices fall below 3300 USD, it could trigger automatic stop-loss orders worth 20 billion USD, leading to panic selling [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased from 78% to 63%, reducing the market's demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy are increasing, with "dovish" members advocating for rate cuts to combat inflation, while "hawkish" members warn of potential inflation from tariff policies [3]. - Geopolitical events, such as the Middle East drone attacks and rumors of a ceasefire in Ukraine, have shown to significantly impact gold prices, with the latter causing an 8% flash crash [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Demand - The demand for gold jewelry is being affected by Trump's tariff policies, which are raising inflation but simultaneously suppressing consumer spending [5]. - In the domestic market, while the People's Bank of China is expected to increase gold reserves by 219 tons in 2024, the pace of accumulation is anticipated to slow down in 2025 due to high prices [5]. - Current gold jewelry prices include over 30% in brand premiums and processing fees, indicating that even if the base gold price drops to 600 yuan per gram, jewelry prices may not fall below 800 yuan per gram [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from 3100 USD to 3000 USD, while UBS recommends gradual accumulation at 3250 USD (approximately 730 yuan per gram) [6]. - Zijin Mining is increasing overseas gold mine acquisitions, suggesting that a price range of 700-750 yuan per gram is currently seen as a bottom [6]. - Investors who purchased gold at higher prices are facing difficult decisions, while those who entered the market at lower prices are relatively calm [6].