糖价内强外弱，郑棉延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14655元/吨，较前一日变动+75元/吨，幅度+0.51%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15713元/吨，较前一日变动+24元/吨，现货基差CF05+1058，较前一日变动-51；3128B棉全国均价15988元/吨， 较前一日变动+21元/吨，现货基差CF05+1333，较前一日变动-54。 近期市场资讯，据棉花信息网生产调查，2026年全国棉花意向种植面积同比减少82.7万亩，减幅1.7%。根据近三年 各省平均单产情况，推算全国棉花总产同比减少45.2万吨，减幅5.8%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，美棉出口签约进度仍偏慢，终端需求 受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响，整体表现疲软，短期ICE美棉预计仍将维持低位震荡。中长期看，美棉已 处于低估值区间，进一步下跌的空间预计不大，但向上驱动暂不明确，后续需持续关注新季供应方面的题材。国 内方面，25/26年度国内棉花延续大幅增产，不过商业库存增幅远不及产量增幅。受减面积预期支撑，贸易商近期 持货意愿较强，现 ...

钛媒体App 1月27日消息，国内棉花期货价格最近明显走高。从去年11月初到现在，郑棉主力合约每吨 涨了接近1100元，涨幅超过7%。今年1月初，价格一度冲到每吨15000元，创下近一年半来的新高。期 货涨，现货也跟着涨，全国棉花平均现货价每吨涨了1000元左右，涨幅接近7%。业内人士认为，本轮 棉花期货上涨，是供需、成本和市场预期等多重因素叠加共振的结果。同时，市场对下年度种植面积缩 减的预期等其他因素，也增强了市场对后市的看多情绪。（央视财经） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the poor US cotton export data restricts its upward drive, the lack of new negative fundamentals limits its downward momentum. Attention should be paid to external market factors, and there may be a risk of decline if market risk appetite deteriorates [6][17] - The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continue to strengthen slightly, and the basis remains relatively firm. The high and stable basis supports cotton futures, but the increasing cotton warehouse receipts and the incomplete release of domestic cotton supply pressure limit the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and it is too early to focus on next year's planting. It is better to discuss it after the Spring Festival in combination with demand. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend, but the upward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the change of the spot basis [2][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - connected | 63.83 | 64.39 | 62.97 | 63.65 | - 0.18 | - 0.28 | 96897 | 10398 | 183446 | 1813 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - connected | 13800 | 14070 | 13790 | 14015 | 180 | 1.30 | 1209539 | - 20174 | 761543 | 364044 | | Cotton Yarn Main - connected | 19980 | 20225 | 19950 | 20050 | 70 | 0.35 | 38934 | 5139 | 22821 | 1986 | [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton fluctuated at a low level this week. The March contract once fell below 63 cents/pound on Tuesday due to the decline in crude oil prices and poor US cotton export data. However, driven by the US inflation data boosting interest - rate cut expectations and short - covering, it rebounded slightly in the second half of the week, recovering most of the losses on Tuesday. Currently, the poor US cotton export data makes ICE cotton lack upward drive, but in the context of an overall optimistic external market risk appetite, it temporarily holds the 63 - cent/pound line [6] - As of the week ending November 27, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,800 tons, a 8% decrease from the previous week and a 23% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly shipment volume was 27,700 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season accounted for 51% of the annual forecasted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume accounted for 41% of the annual total signed volume [7] - In India, both cotton import and export were strong in October. Textile exports were still affected by US tariffs. The raw cotton import volume in October was 127,000 tons, a record high in recent months. The export volume was 24,000 tons, a 33% increase from September and a 36% increase year - on - year. The textile export value in October was 1.55 billion US dollars. The Cotton Corporation of India has purchased about 4 million bales of new cotton, with a total inventory of 4.6 million bales [8] - ABRAPA's forecast of Brazil's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is lower than CONAB's. The cotton planting area in Mato Grosso state is expected to decline by 7.8% this season. The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association predicts that the cotton production in 2026 will reach 3.83 million tons [9] - In Pakistan, the demand for imported cotton has slightly improved, and the cotton production forecast remains in the range of 7 - 7.25 million bales. The local yarn demand is continuously weak, and some spinning enterprises are selling inventory at low prices. Yarn exports are mainly to the Chinese market [10] - In Bangladesh, it is expected that the import volume of US cotton will increase slightly in the next few months. Cotton import procurement is still sporadic. Although clothing and textile export orders are relatively stable, yarn prices are flat, and producers are facing increasing operating pressure [10] - As of the week ending December 19, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 62%, and 65.5% respectively, showing little change [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - From December 12 - 19, domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to be stable and slightly stronger. The procurement of cotton raw materials by spinning enterprises and cotton merchants was good in the first half of the week, mainly for low - basis spot lock - basis transactions. The spot basis changed little, and the price of 2025/26 machine - picked cotton in North and South Xinjiang was mostly between 14,900 - 15,100 yuan per ton [12] - As of December 19, the registered cotton warehouse receipts were 3,870, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3,852, totaling 7,722, equivalent to 324,324 tons [12] - The sales of pure - cotton yarn in the market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand for combed high - count yarn. The prices of pure - cotton yarn fluctuated. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a high operating rate with no inventory pressure, while the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises continued to decline. The pure - cotton grey cloth market remained weak, with local traders stocking up slightly, and the overall order volume did not recover much [13] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), yarn enterprises' operating rate (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [14][15][16] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to external market factors. If market risk appetite deteriorates, there may be a risk of decline [17] - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend, but the upward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the change of the spot basis. It is too early to focus on next year's planting, and it is better to discuss it after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][17]

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: In the short term, both international and domestic cotton markets face supply pressure and weak demand, but the downside space is limited. In the medium - long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. For domestic cotton, new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space of international sugar prices is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has low valuation, and the short - term downside space is also limited [4] - Pulp: Although the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, the previous negative factors have been digested, and the marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials in the future may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,968 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. As of December 13, the planting progress of 2025/26 Brazilian cotton was 10.1%, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month and 2.1 percentage points slower year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory slightly increased. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, with obvious inventory - building pressure. In the short term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the medium - long term, the downside space is limited [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton continued to increase in production. Short - term supply is abundant, but the hedging resistance on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of cotton prices is limited [1] Strategy - Be neutral to bullish, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Focus on the change of the cotton target price policy next year [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.42%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.6008 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of December, a year - on - year increase of 37.65% [3] Market Analysis - International: The short - term rebound of raw sugar futures is supported, but the global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space is limited. - Domestic: The supply of Zhengzhou sugar is abundant in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation limits the short - term downside space [4] Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the futures market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton (-1.87%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,075 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Most pulp prices were stable, and a few decreased slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance plans. The Crofton paper mill in Canada will be permanently closed, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down. - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is still at a high level, but it has decreased recently. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity in the future will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Be neutral. The previous negative factors have been digested, but the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, which limits the upward space of pulp prices. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has support and pressure in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing stocks. In the long - term, it depends on policies and weather. Strategies include selling high and buying back the spread between January and May contracts and going long on far - month contracts at low prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 26 was 13625, down 20 (-0.15%) from November 25; CF05 was 13585, up 5 (0.04%); CF01 - 05 was 40, down 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 26, it was 14700, up 101 (0.69%); in Henan, 14896, up 48 (0.32%); in Shandong, 14951, up 41 (0.27%); Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1075, up 121 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 26 was 20070, up 5 (0.02%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20660, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 64 (USD/ pound), unchanged; the arrival price was 73.30, up 0.3 (0.41%); 1% quota delivery price was 12830, up 51 (0.40%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 13868, up 31 (0.22%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6445, up 25; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 1038, down 20; the spot internal - external spread was 2121, down 10 [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market currently has both support and pressure. There is a continuous supply of new cotton, but yarn mills are actively restocking. In the long - term, policies and weather will be the key factors. The recommended strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to lay out long positions for distant contracts when prices are low [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - On November 6, CF01 was 13605, down 10 (-0.07%) from November 5; CF05 was 13615, down 5 (-0.04%); CF01 - 05 was -10, down 5 from the previous day [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - On November 6, the prices in Xinjiang, Henan, and Shandong were 14618, 14852, and 14869 respectively, with decreases of -9 (-0.06%), -4 (-0.03%), and -4 (-0.03%) compared to November 5. The Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1013, up 1 [3]. Domestic Yarn Futures - On November 6, CY was 19870, up 50 (0.25%) from November 5 [3]. Domestic Yarn Spot - On November 6, the C32S price index was 20520, unchanged from November 5 [3]. US Cotton Spot - On November 6, CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.07, the arrival price was 75.20, the 1% quota delivery price was 13158, and the sliding - duty delivery price was 14069, all unchanged from November 5 [3]. Spread Data - On November 6, the yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6265, up 60 from November 5; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, unchanged [3]. Other Data - The domestic - foreign spot spread was 1711 on November 6, down 4 from November 5 [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has support below and pressure above in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their inventories. In the long term, policies and weather are the key factors. The strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to layout long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 5 was 13615, up 80 (0.59%) from November 4; CF05 was 13620, up 65 (0.48%); CF01 - 05 was - 5, up 15 from the previous day [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 5, the price was 14627, down 13 (-0.09%); in Henan it was 14856, down 34 (-0.23%); in Shandong it was 14873, unchanged (0.00%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1012, down 93 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 5 was 19820, up 25 (0.13%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20520, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.15; the arrival price was 75.20, down 0.3 (-0.40%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13158, down 51 (-0.39%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14069, down 29 (-0.21%) [3] Spread Data - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6205, down 55; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, up 22 [3] Other Data - The domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1715, up 51 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton has been maintaining a low - level volatile trend, lacking fundamental guidance and upward drivers. It is expected to continue this trend, and its bottom is difficult to determine without clarity in international economic and trade situations [5][18] - Domestic cotton futures are in a rebound trend. In the short term, new cotton listings and strong hedging intentions of ginning factories will limit the rebound, while high basis and relatively low absolute prices will provide support. Therefore, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, with market fluctuations mainly coming from the complex international economic and trade situation [1][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 64.17 | 64.78 | 63.65 | 64.18 | - 0.11 | - 0.17 | 90058 | - 19512 | 154286 | - 12704 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13360 | 13610 | 13350 | 13540 | 205 | 1.54 | 1157468 | 163138 | 590909 | 4442 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 19490 | 19875 | 19490 | 19810 | 340 | 1.75 | 61434 | 7471 | 24050 | 3379 | [4] 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton has maintained a low - level volatile trend around 64 cents per pound due to the suspension of USDA data and reports, lack of fundamental guidance and upward drivers, but supported by commercial buying and rising crude oil prices [5] - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of the USDA's weekly export sales data [6] - India: In August, cotton exports increased year - on - year. Cotton imports in August were 62,940 tons, up 8% from July and 34% from the same period last year. Cotton exports were 19,000 tons, up 89% from August 2024. Cotton yarn exports were 83,700 tons, up 4% year - on - year. In September, cotton textile product exports (excluding clothing) decreased by 5.5% from August and 13.2% from the same period last year. Garment exports decreased by 19.2% month - on - month and 10.1% year - on - year. Since April 2025, total textile exports have increased by 7% compared to the same period in 2024 [7] - Brazil: In October, cotton exports rebounded. The pre - sale ratio of the 2025 production is about 70%, and that of the next season's expected total production is 32%. The estimated export volume in the first half of October is about 177,000 tons, and the full - month export volume is expected to reach 350,000 tons [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains average. Local factories have lowered price expectations due to quality decline, while ginning factories with high - quality inventory are reluctant to sell. Most factories mainly purchase domestic cotton, and import demand remains moderate [8] - Bangladesh: Low prices have stimulated import inquiries. Buyers are mainly interested in recently deliverable or in - transit cotton, and some are planning for long - term purchases. Yarn prices have risen due to improved downstream demand, but order volumes are still lower than normal levels [9][10] - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week of October 24, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 65.5%, Vietnam's was 61.5%, and Pakistan's was 65% [10] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot transactions are mainly for rigid demand, with prices rising slightly and the basis weakening slightly. Spinning mills' acceptance of current spot prices is average, and some have made small pre - sales [11] - Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton purchase prices have risen rapidly, with some ginning factories having a cost of 14,700 - 15,000 yuan per metric ton (gross weight), and some having a cost below 14,600 yuan per metric ton (gross weight) [12] - As of October 24, there were 2503 registered cotton warrants and 685 pending warrants, totaling 3188 warrants, equivalent to 133,896 tons [12] - The situation of spinning mills is slightly better than that of weaving mills. Some spinning mills have tentatively raised prices, but actual transactions are limited. New orders for conventional varieties are insufficient, and only low - count yarns and yarns related to autumn and winter fabrics are selling well. Spinning mills' raw material purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and inventories have slightly increased and are higher than the same period in previous years. The sales of the cotton fabric market are dull, with production maintained by order re - orders, and inventories are accumulating [13] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mills' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' cotton fabric inventory (weekly), yarn enterprises' startup rate (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' startup rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton fabric CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warrants [15][16][17] 3.4 Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range volatile trend. If the international economic and trade situation becomes clear, it may be beneficial for an increase in commercial buying. Otherwise, the bottom of ICE cotton is difficult to determine [18] - Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, with market fluctuations mainly coming from the complex international economic and trade situation [18]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,535, 13,575, and 13,740 respectively, with the price of CF01 down 5, CF05 down 25, and CF09 down 30. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 19,760, 19,745, and 20,085 respectively, with the price of CY01 down 15, CY05 down 50, and CY09 unchanged [3]. - The CCIndex3128B spot price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49; the CY IndexC32S was 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30. The Cot A price was 75.65 cents/pound, and the FCY IndexC33S was 21,213 yuan/ton, up 13 [3]. - The 1 - 5 - month cotton spread was -40, up 20; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -165, up 5; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 205, down 25. The 1 - 5 - month棉纱 spread was 15, up 35; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -340, down 20,135; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 325, up 20,100 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,225, down 10; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,170, down 25; the CY09 - CF09 spread was 6,345, up 20,115. The 1% tariff - based internal and external cotton spread was 1,317, down 218; the sliding - duty internal and external cotton spread was 493, down 120; the internal and external yarn spread was -743, up 17 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of October 15, the textile enterprises' in - stock cotton industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the end of last month. The available cotton inventory was 971,200 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days from the end of last month, and the grey fabric inventory was 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days from the end of last month [6]. - Since the new cotton acquisition started on September 26, 24 cotton acquisition and processing enterprises in Hutubi County had acquired 242,000 tons of seed cotton as of October 10, and the acquisition was expected to be completed by early December. As of mid - October, 35 cotton processing enterprises in Shaya County had acquired 215,000 tons of seed cotton, achieving the expected acquisition volume, with an average daily acquisition volume of over 20,000 tons [6]. - During the holiday, as new flowers entered the acquisition period, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, the Xinjiang cotton output was high and the enthusiasm of ginning factories for acquisition was average, with no large - scale rush for acquisition. The acquisition price in some markets was around 6 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new flowers, it was expected that there would be certain selling and hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season performance of the demand side was average. Although the downstream demand had slightly improved, the improvement range was relatively limited, so the peak season performance this year was not expected to be very prominent, and the peak season demand was expected to have a relatively limited boosting effect on the market [7]. - The trading strategies were as follows: for unilateral trading, it was expected that the future trend of US cotton would mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton was also expected to show a volatile trend; for arbitrage and options, it was recommended to wait and see [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated steadily, the hedging pressure gradually emerged, and the cotton spot price was stable with a slight increase. However, due to the expectation of a bumper new cotton harvest, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines, mainly replenishing raw materials on a just - in - time basis. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market slightly recovered, with small orders selling well, but traders were still cautious in purchasing. Affected by Zhengzhou cotton, some manufacturers continued to adjust their quotes, and the pure cotton yarn price slightly recovered. However, due to the poor orders of weaving factories, the actual transaction price did not change much. There was little change in inventory, and the inventory of some spinning mills in the inland slightly increased. It was necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand. In addition, factors such as the China - US presidential meeting and the Fed's possible interest rate cut at the end of the month might also have an impact on external demand [8]. - The current ex - works price of Xinjiang - produced combed compact siro - spun R/JC 50/50 50S was around 25,000 yuan/ton, and the ex - works price of high - grade ring - spun C32S was 21,200 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Real - order negotiations were available [10]. - Cotton weaving factories generally reported that the recent market was significantly worse than in September. Currently, they were in the inventory accumulation stage, and there were discounts on the actual transaction price of grey fabrics. The in - production orders were mainly for medium - and thick - type fabrics, but the profit was poor, and there were few sampling orders for thin - type fabrics. Since the new downstream orders were mainly small and urgent orders, and large orders were hard to find, weaving factories mainly purchased on a just - in - time basis [10]. Group 3: Options - On October 21, 2025, the closing price of CF601C13400.CZC was 247, up 32.1%; the closing price of CF601P13000.CZC was 45, down 29.7%; the closing price of CF601P12400.CZC was 15, down 42.3%. The 120 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 8.542, with the volatility slightly decreasing compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.9%, and the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.9% [12]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7255, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6021. Today, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. The option trading strategy was to wait and see [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In the context of the expectation of a new crop's high - yield and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August, multiple policies and industry events are in the window period. The content of domestic policy meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the actualization of new cotton's high - yield, whether the import sliding - duty quota will be increased and the amount of the increase have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton's expectation. Among them, the increase in the import sliding - duty quota has a greater impact on the old - crop supply - demand and near - term contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Cotton Futures and Spot Prices - **Domestic Cotton Futures**: On August 21, CF01 was 14030, down 25 (-0.18%) from August 20; CF09 was 13770, down 30 (-0.22%); CF09 - 01 was -260, down 5 [3]. - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: In Xinjiang, it was 15038 on August 21, down 42 (-0.28%); in Henan, 15274, down 30 (-0.20%); in Shandong, 15208, down 30 (-0.20%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1008, down 17 [3]. - **Domestic棉纱 Futures**: CY was 20060 on August 21, down 5 (-0.02%) [3]. - **Domestic棉纱 Spot**: C32S price index remained at 20700 on August 21, with no change [3]. - **US Cotton Spot**: CT (USD/磅) was 67.53 on August 21, with no change; the arrival price was 77.20, 1% quota pick - up price was 13602, and sliding - duty pick - up price was 14358, all with no change [3]. Spread Data - **Yarn - Cotton Spread**: The futures spread was 6030 on August 21, up 20; the spot spread remained at 756 [3]. - **Internal - External Spread (Spot)**: It was 1636 on August 21, down 30 [4]. Other Data - **Cotton Import Profit (Shandong - US Cotton 1% Quota)**, **National Cotton Commercial Inventory (in 10,000 tons)**, **Spinning Mill Finished - Product Inventory (days)**, **Weaving Mill Finished - Product Inventory (days)**, and **Cotton Grey Cloth Inventory** are presented in graphical form in the report, showing historical data trends [4].