流动性日报 | 2026-01-09 市场流动性概况 2026-01-08，股指板块成交7495.48亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.85%；持仓金额15336.30亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.01%；成交持仓比为48.50%。 国债板块成交4024.47亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.52%；持仓金额8010.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.04%；成交持 仓比为49.67%。 基本金属板块成交15105.86亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.85%；持仓金额8126.70亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.28%； 成交持仓比为206.26%。 贵金属板块成交11995.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.41%；持仓金额5047.91亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.37%；成交 持仓比为347.81%。 能源化工板块成交5558.46亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.80%；持仓金额4660.87亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.99%； 成交持仓比为114.46%。 农产品板块成交3638.16亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.95%；持仓金额5970.14亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.85%；成交 持仓比为58.70%。 黑色建材板块成交401 ...

文字早评 2026/01/09 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、工信部牵头警示锂电池产业非理性竞争 十余家头部企业参与； 4、标普全球预计到 2040 年，人工智能和国防领域增长将使全球铜需求增加 50%；如果不加大回收和开 采力度，预计每年的铜供应缺口将超过 1000 万吨。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.00%/-0.24%/-0.41%/-1.36%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.07%/-0.57%/-1.02%/-3.21%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.22%/-1.14%/-1.89%/-4.70%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.04%/0.01%/-0.28%。 【策略观点】 年初机构配置资金有望重新流入市场，加之政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路 为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周四，TL 主力合约收于 111.000 ，环比变化 0.48%；T 主力合约收于 107.790 ，环比变化 0.17%；TF 主力合约收于 105.600 ，环比变化 0.09%；TS 主力合约收于 102.358 ，环 ...

文字早评 2026/01/08 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、工信部等八部门印发《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，支持突破高端训练芯片、人工智能 服务器、智算云操作系统等关键核心技术； 2、工信部印发《工业互联网和人工智能融合赋能行动方案》，到 2028 年，推动不少于 50000 家企业实 施新型工业网络改造升级； 3、中信证券收盘集合竞价现 14.5 亿元压盘大单； 4、美国 11 月职位空缺降至一年多以来最低水平。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.08%/-0.33%/-0.50%/-1.45%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.07%/-0.55%/-0.92%/-3.12%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.31%/-1.15%/-1.85%/-4.69%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.02%/-0.09%/-0.04%/-0.30%。 【策略观点】 年初机构配置资金有望重新流入市场，加之政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路 为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 110.470 ，环比变化-0.41%； ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the liquidity data of various market sectors on January 6, 2026, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day, to reflect the market liquidity status of different sectors. [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding amount, etc. of multiple market sectors, and uses multiple figures to visually present these data. [1][2][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On January 6, 2026, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 819.195 billion yuan, a +15.16% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1553.766 billion yuan, a +3.40% change; the trading - holding ratio was 53.15%. There are also figures showing the price change, trading - holding ratio, and other information of each variety in the stock index plate. [1][5] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 403.894 billion yuan, a +10.01% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 798.811 billion yuan, a +1.50% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.46%. There are figures for each variety's price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [1][5] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The base metals plate had a trading volume of 994.937 billion yuan, a +70.13% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 800.201 billion yuan, a +8.70% change; the trading - holding ratio was 129.44%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 1129.613 billion yuan, a +133.40% change; the holding amount was 512.831 billion yuan, a +5.74% change; the trading - holding ratio was 320.11%. There are figures for each variety's price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [1][5] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 479.474 billion yuan, a +30.85% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 444.680 billion yuan, a +3.90% change; the trading - holding ratio was 102.43%. There are figures for the main varieties' price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [1][5] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 267.146 billion yuan, a - 0.58% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 568.582 billion yuan, a +2.69% change; the trading - holding ratio was 43.19%. There are figures for the main varieties' price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [1][5] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 195.838 billion yuan, a +35.29% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 301.052 billion yuan, a +0.98% change; the trading - holding ratio was 64.32%. There are figures for each variety's price change, trading - holding ratio, etc. [2][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in profits, the long - term view is to go long on dips as the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short - term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase, but may face short - term corrections in January next year. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum have relatively strong price support, while zinc and lead may be affected by the departure of long positions [11][13]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range [31][34]. - For energy chemicals, the strategies for different products vary. For example, for crude oil, a low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained with short - term waiting and seeing [52]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, for live pigs, a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [75]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly work; from January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year; tobacco advertising and business promotion expenses of tobacco enterprises cannot be deducted; the auction electricity price of the largest power grid operator in the United States may double [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. From January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 4823 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Monday, with a net investment of 4150 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. Trump's remarks on the Fed and the selection of the new Fed chair have an impact on market expectations, and international silver prices hit a new high [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January next year, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, copper prices rose and then fell sharply. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell slightly. LME lead inventory increased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand of lead is weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose and then fell. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The excess pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate fell. The contract decreased its position significantly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or try light - position call options. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price was at a discount, and the futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract rose. The inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price was at a premium, and the inventory increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose. The inventory increased, and the trading volume decreased [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract price rose. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume decreased [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited [36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The spot prices were at a premium [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under strong supervision, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly. The tire start - up rate was slightly worse, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see and partially close the hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures price fell. The inventories of refined oil products had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained, and short - term waiting and seeing are recommended [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol fell, and the main futures contract price was stable [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the main futures contract price was stable [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea market is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner, and it is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, and the styrene spot price rose while the futures price fell [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price fell. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium - term [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [68]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The supply and demand were in a complex state [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price may be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to short after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were large, and the demand was weak [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic palm oil inventory was high, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The domestic and international sugar production and import data changed [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The domestic cotton production increased, and the import was restricted [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints Market Logic - Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year due to five reasons, including the end of concerns about yen carry - trade after the yen interest - rate hike, the Fed's shift to "technical expansion of the balance sheet", potential institutional capital inflows at the beginning of the year, proactive fiscal policy in China, and the potential for A - share valuation and profit repair. Hong Kong stocks have additional advantages of low valuation and the end of the解禁 peak, and commodities are expected to remain strong due to the revaluation of physical assets [6]. - In the US, the real GDP growth rate in Q3 reached 4.3%, higher than expected. Growth was driven by personal consumption, net exports, and government spending. However, there are internal economic disparities, and caution is needed due to potential temporary factors and a possible government shutdown in Q4 [7]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, driven by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, narrowing of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. This is a sustainable trend, but short - term over - adjustment risks need to be watched [8]. - From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, but the profit decreased by 13.1% in November. There are significant differences in industry performance, with the export and high - tech manufacturing sectors supporting profits, while domestic - demand - related industries dragging down the overall growth [9]. - From a meso - economic perspective, the high - frequency economic activity index is at a high level in recent years but has declined significantly. Land transaction area has increased, while traditional industries such as real estate, infrastructure, and some key anti - involution products are under pressure [10]. Logic of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Logic | Risk Points | Allocation Suggestion | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stocks | Medium - to long - term: Global fiscal and monetary policies are jointly exerting force, China's PPI and industrial enterprise profits have bottomed out, capital is flowing, and global demand is stable. Short - term: Expectations of further Fed rate cuts, new valuation space in the new year, and the end of concerns about yen carry - trade. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation, optimistic about the pre - Spring Festival market [11]. | | Bonds | Medium - to long - term: Limited domestic rate - cut space, inflation and economic improvement due to the unified market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Short - term: Bond yields have risen significantly, and economic momentum lacks explosiveness. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term reduction in allocation [11]. | | Commodities | Medium - to long - term: Fiscal and monetary policies will drive PPI to turn positive next year, Fed rate cuts will weaken the US dollar, and short - duration commodities are affected by real - world factors. Short - term: Abundant liquidity leads to the revaluation of physical assets such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, while the demand for the black - chain is weak. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, trading opportunities in anti - involution - related varieties [11]. | 3. Summary by Directory 01 Core Viewpoints - **Market Logic**: Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year, analyze the US economic situation, the RMB exchange - rate trend, China's industrial enterprise profit status, and meso - economic indicators [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Logic of Major Asset Classes**: Provide investment logic, risk points, and allocation suggestions for stocks, bonds, and commodities [11]. 02 Quantitative Analysis - **Investment Index Performance**: Present the performance of different asset classes in terms of recent returns (weekly, monthly, year - to - date, quarterly), drawdowns, Sharpe ratios, and Calmar ratios [22]. - **Valuation, Volatility, and Speculation Degree**: Analyze the valuation, volatility, trend smoothness, and speculation degree of different asset classes, including the original values and their percentile rankings over one - year and three - year periods [23]. - **Stock - Futures Linkage**: Compare the performance of commodity - related indices and stock - related indices in terms of weekly, monthly, and year - to - date returns [25]. 03 Macro - overview - **Domestic Situation**: In November, the unemployment rate remained stable, the CPI continued to rise, the M1 growth rate decreased significantly, and the PMI showed a slight rebound [27][33]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US PMI decreased in November, and the US - Europe interest - rate spread and risk indicators are analyzed [36][39]. 04 Meso - data - **Economic Activity**: In November, industrial added value decreased slightly compared to October, and indicators such as flight volume, subway passenger volume, and the high - frequency economic activity index are presented [46]. - **Real Estate**: Multiple real - estate indicators are at the bottom, while PVC demand is at a high level, including land transaction area, housing sales area, and demand for building materials [49]. - **Shipping and Exports**: Shipping freight indices and export data of some key commodities are presented, including CCFI, CICFI, the Belt and Road trade - volume index, and the export growth rate of home appliances, integrated circuits, and automobiles [65].

1. Report's Core View - On December 25, 2025, different sectors in the market showed various liquidity performances. The stock index, basic metal, precious metal, and agricultural product sectors had increased trading volumes compared with the previous trading days, while the treasury bond, energy - chemical, and black building material sectors had decreased trading volumes [1][2]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Stock Index Plate - Trading volume was 560.484 billion yuan, a +10.45% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 1376.631 billion yuan, with a +4.67% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.59% [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Plate - Trading volume was 294.915 billion yuan, a -34.30% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 818.284 billion yuan, with a +1.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 35.57% [1]. 2.3 Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal) Plate - Trading volume was 820.815 billion yuan, a +34.56% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 727.873 billion yuan, with a +1.41% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 116.61% [1]. 2.4 Energy - Chemical Plate - Trading volume was 445.584 billion yuan, a -11.40% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 446.265 billion yuan, with a +0.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 91.56% [1]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Plate - Trading volume was 237.094 billion yuan, a +2.38% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 557.817 billion yuan, with a -2.23% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.83% [1]. 2.6 Black Building Material Plate - Trading volume was 154.490 billion yuan, a -25.74% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 311.853 billion yuan, with a -1.85% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 46.74% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the stock index market, although there is some uncertainty at the end of the year due to partial profit - taking by funds, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds are expected to fluctuate due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - selling [6]. - For precious metals, considering the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to be in a high - level shock, aluminum to fluctuate, and zinc to be cautious about price shocks [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [32][34]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be short - term operated, and crude oil can be observed in the short - term [51][54]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products such as hogs, eggs, and beans have different price trends and trading strategies [76][78][80]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25, 2025. Beijing has adjusted housing purchase restrictions, and multiple departments have urged e - commerce platforms to manage product quality. The Yanjiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Ningde is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [2]. - **Strategy**: End - of - year profit - taking by some funds brings uncertainty, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On December 24, multiple departments in Beijing optimized housing policies. The central bank conducted 26 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and silver rose 1.54%. US employment data exceeded expectations, suppressing precious metal prices in the short - term [8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic demand was weak [12]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level shock, with a reference operating range provided [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased. Trading was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with a reference operating range provided [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about price shocks caused by the departure of precious metal funds [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventory increased, and domestic lead supply tightened marginally [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the surplus pressure is large, the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to observe [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum, and demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, with reference operating ranges provided [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. The Yanjiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [23][24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or lightly buy options, with a reference operating range provided [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose. Ore prices were expected to decline, and inventory was accumulating [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term, with a reference operating range provided [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose. Indonesian nickel ore production targets were adjusted, and spot trading was light [27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Cost was firm, and supply was disrupted [28]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose slightly. Rebar supply and demand increased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and pay attention to policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments decreased, and steel mill inventory was at a low level [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose slightly. Glass demand was weak, and soda ash inventory was accumulating [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to short soda ash [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fluctuated slightly. Spot prices were stable [39]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the impact of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Industrial silicon supply decreased slightly, and polysilicon demand was weak [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to follow market fluctuations, and polysilicon prices are unstable [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears [48]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold a hedging position [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and refined oil inventories decreased [52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short - term and test OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fluctuated. Port inventory decreased, but future pressure remains [55]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. Demand improved, and supply is expected to decline seasonally [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. Supply and demand had different trends [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. Supply was strong, and demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply was high, and inventory was accumulating [64]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about the risk of price rebound due to increased maintenance [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply was under high - level maintenance, and demand was affected by the off - season [66]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: Para - xylene prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak [68]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. Supply was high, and demand was in the off - season [70]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. Supply pressure was large, and demand was seasonally weak [72]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of 2026 [73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices rose. Supply was large, and demand was stable [75]. - **Strategy**: Keep a short - term shock view and pay attention to long - term support [76]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply was sufficient, and demand was average [77]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to long - term pressure [78]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean inventory was high, and bean meal inventory increased [79]. - **Strategy**: Bean meal is expected to fluctuate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil production and export data were mixed. Domestic oils and fats rebounded [81]. - **Strategy**: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. Imported sugar supply decreased, and international production data was mixed [85]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose. Xinjiang may reduce cotton planting area, and import data was mixed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long [89].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not include the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: At the end of the year, some funds are cashing in on their gains, leading to certain uncertainties in the market. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the general strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - **Bonds**: In the short - term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after the oversold situation [7]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities have different outlooks. For example, copper prices may face resistance despite potential short - term increases; aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and gradually rise; zinc prices may have short - term upward impulses but are expected to be weak in the medium - term; etc. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures** - **Market Information**: Multiple non - ferrous futures prices rose at night; the US Q3 economic growth reached 4.3%, the fastest in two years; SMIC raised some production capacity prices by about 10%; Starlink's global active users exceeded 9 million [2]. - **Strategy**: Although there are uncertainties at the end of the year, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.76%, 0.22%, 0.16%, and 0.06% respectively. The central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound opportunities [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.42% to 1012.58 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.14% to 16961.00 yuan/kilogram. The US Q3 GDP data exceeded expectations, suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [8]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates and expand the balance sheet. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: LME copper closed up 1.21% to $12055/ton, and Shanghai copper closed at 94890 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, and domestic premiums widened [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise, but there is resistance. The operating range for Shanghai copper is 93500 - 96000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 11850 - 12200 dollars/ton [13]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: LME aluminum was flat at $2941/ton, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 22160 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the spot was at a discount [14]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and gradually rise. The operating range for Shanghai aluminum is 22050 - 22300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 2910 - 2980 dollars/ton [15]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.10% to 23100 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell to $3086.5/ton. Inventories increased, and the basis changed [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may have short - term upward impulses but are expected to be weak in the medium - term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose 0.43% to 16990 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1977.5/ton. Inventories and basis changed [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term within a wide range [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Shanghai nickel rose 1.71% to 125150 yuan/ton. Spot premiums and costs changed [20]. - **Strategy**: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for Shanghai nickel is 110000 - 125000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel is 13000 - 15500 dollars/ton [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin rose 1.27% to 344750 yuan/ton. Supply and demand had different trends [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for domestic tin is 300000 - 350000 yuan/ton, and for overseas tin is 39000 - 43000 dollars/ton [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The MMLC index rose 3.14%, and the LC2605 contract rose 5.23% [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly. The operating range for the LC2605 contract is 114500 - 124500 yuan/ton [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose 0.01% to 2583 yuan/ton. Inventories and basis changed [26]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for the AO2601 contract is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton [27]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract rose 0.43% to 12905 yuan/ton. Spot prices and inventories changed [28][29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The AD2602 contract fell 0.12% to 21265 yuan/ton. Inventories decreased [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar rose 0.063% to 3128 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil rose 0.122% to 3281 yuan/ton. Inventories and positions changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The impact of export licenses will be gradually digested, and winter - storage willingness is weak [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract fell 0.38% to 778.50 yuan/ton. Spot prices and basis changed [35]. - **Strategy**: Iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass fell 0.29% to 1028 yuan/ton, and soda ash rose 0.51% to 1175 yuan/ton. Inventories and positions changed [37][40]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate narrowly, and for soda ash, it is recommended to short at appropriate times [39][41]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon fell 0.31% to 5822 yuan/ton, and ferrosilicon rose 0.07% to 5648 yuan/ton. Spot prices and basis changed [42]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the leading role of the black - building materials sector and cost and supply factors [43][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon rose 2.15% to 8780 yuan/ton, and polysilicon rose 0.65% to 59225 yuan/ton. Inventories and basis changed [46][48]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon futures are unstable. Attention should be paid to risks [47][49]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated. There are different views on supply and demand [51][52]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold hedging positions [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: INE crude oil rose 1.92% to 440.90 yuan/barrel. Inventories changed [55][56]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export - support willingness [57]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices changed, and the main contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2156 yuan/ton [58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see. Methanol is expected to consolidate at a low level [59]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices changed, and the main contract rose 23 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton [60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices. Urea is expected to build a bottom through oscillation [61]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed. Supply and demand indicators changed [62]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year [63]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 147 yuan to 4738 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and costs changed [64]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 112 yuan to 3623 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [66]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebounds due to unexpected maintenance [68]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 42 yuan to 5082 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [69]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips based on expectations [70]. - **Para - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7302 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips [72][73]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The main contract rose 56 yuan/ton to 6296 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [74]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [75]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The main contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 6158 yuan/ton. Supply and demand and inventories changed [76]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of next year [77]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices mostly rose. Regional prices and supply - demand changed [79]. - **Strategy**: Near - term contracts are expected to oscillate. Consider short - selling on rallies, and pay attention to long - term support [80]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply and demand and prices changed [81]. - **Strategy**: Near - term contracts are expected to squeeze the premium. Consider short - selling on rallies, and pay attention to long - term pressure [82]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Domestic meal prices and inventories changed [83]. - **Strategy**: Meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Palm oil production and exports changed. Domestic oil prices rebounded [85]. - **Strategy**: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rose. Domestic and international production and import data changed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The overall outlook is bearish [90]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose. Domestic and international production, import, and inventory data changed [91][92]. - **Strategy**: It is unlikely for Zhengzhou cotton to have a unilateral trend [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The report provides a detailed overview of the market liquidity situation on December 22, 2025, including the trading volume, position value, and trading - position ratio of various sectors such as the stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy and chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report presents data on the trading - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position volume, position value, trading volume, and trading value of each sector through multiple charts [4][5][8]. 2. Stock Index Plate - On December 22, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 5203.53 billion yuan, a change of - 32.20% from the previous trading day; the position value was 13056.29 billion yuan, a change of + 0.22% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 39.81% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading value change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [5][9]. 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 3789.31 billion yuan, a change of + 18.77% from the previous trading day; the position value was 7682.75 billion yuan, a change of - 0.28% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 49.34% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading value change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate [5]. 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metal plate was 7823.95 billion yuan, a change of + 13.66% from the previous trading day; the position value was 7179.92 billion yuan, a change of + 2.81% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 106.48%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 11168.20 billion yuan, a change of - 7.87% from the previous trading day; the position value was 5483.82 billion yuan, a change of + 6.32% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 302.97% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading value change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [5]. 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 5137.33 billion yuan, a change of + 19.97% from the previous trading day; the position value was 4464.24 billion yuan, a change of + 1.19% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 111.24% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading value change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [5]. 6. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 2803.34 billion yuan, a change of - 3.17% from the previous trading day; the position value was 5720.66 billion yuan, a change of - 1.40% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 46.56% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading value change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural product plate [5]. 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 2268.71 billion yuan, a change of + 10.32% from the previous trading day; the position value was 3192.35 billion yuan, a change of + 0.10% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 64.99% [2]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading value change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [5].