文字早评 2025/10/09 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、证监会召开"十五五"资本市场规划上市公司和行业机构座谈会，全面推进实施新一轮资本市场改 革开放，不断提升市场的吸引力、包容性和竞争力； 2、节假日期间、贵金属、铜、铝等有色金属期货收盘普涨； 3、全球存储芯片价格持续上涨，摩根士丹利的最新研报预测，人工智能热潮下，存储芯片行业预计迎 来一个"超级周期"； 4、中国核聚变装置 BEST 建设取得关键突破，有望在 2030 年通过核聚变发电点亮第一盏灯； 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.38%/-0.49%/-0.98%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-1.01%/-1.65%/-3.87%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.24%/-1.26%/-2.23%/-5.12%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.04%/-0.00%/-0.02%/-0.01%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧，储能、芯片及有色等板块崛起，市场成交量有 所萎缩，短期指数波动有所加大。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未 ...

Group 1 - China's September manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1] - A slight increase in both PMIs may support a rise in commodity futures and stock index futures prices, but could mildly suppress government bond futures prices [1] Group 2 - The USDA is set to release the quarterly grain inventory report, which will impact futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans [2] Group 3 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for September is anticipated to be 49.2%, an increase from the previous 48.7% [3] - A slight rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI may support increases in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while potentially suppressing gold and silver futures prices [3] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly crude oil inventory change, with the previous value showing a decrease of 607,000 barrels [4] - A continued decrease in crude oil inventory could support rising prices for crude oil and related commodity futures [4] Group 5 - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims, with expectations set at 215,000, down from the previous 218,000 [5] - A slight decrease in jobless claims may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices, except for gold and silver [5] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for September is expected to show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 previously, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% [6] - If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations while the unemployment rate and average hourly wage growth remain stable, it may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] Group 7 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting regarding oil production policies, with expectations of an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day and a potential lifting of a second batch of production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day [7] - The outcomes of this meeting are anticipated to impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have seen divergences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation, reducing market risk appetite. Short - term index faces uncertainty due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - run, with policy support for the capital market unchanged, the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in Q4, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market may oscillate under the intertwined situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and if the stock market cools and allocation forces increase, the bond market may recover [7]. - For precious metals, short - term interest rate cut expectations are frustrated, but the Fed's mid - term easing pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially paying attention to the rising opportunity of silver prices [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to have a certain degree of support in price, with some showing a trend of shock - strengthening or shock - running, mainly affected by factors such as Fed interest rate policies, trade situations, and industry supply - demand [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are under downward pressure due to weak demand, and the iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens after the festival. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, and manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [31][33][39]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is weak in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term; crude oil has short - term uncertainties; and methanol's fundamentals are improving [52][54][56]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, the pig price is weak, the egg price may stabilize after a small decline. Bean and rapeseed meal are under short - term pressure, and the price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term [74][76][81]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. The NDRC plans to build a new computing power network infrastructure. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry. The SASAC held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises. The new energy storage market is short of cores [2]. - **期指基差比例**: IF, IC, and IM show different negative basis ratios for different contract periods, while IH has positive basis ratios in some cases [3]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry [5]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 4115 billion yuan [6]. - **策略观点**: The bond market may oscillate in Q4, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond relationship [7]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: Domestic and foreign precious metals had different price changes, and the positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly [8]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to go long on dips, especially for silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: Copper prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis. Import losses and refined - waste spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [13]. - **策略观点**: Aluminum prices have strong support below [14]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak [16]. Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices increased slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong [17]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices oscillated, with changes in spot prices and costs [18]. - **策略观点**: Short - term observation is recommended, and long on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [18]. Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices oscillated, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [19]. - **策略观点**: Tin prices may continue to oscillate, and observation is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: Carbonate lithium prices had different changes, and the price of lithium concentrate was stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Carbonate lithium futures may oscillate within a range [22]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [23]. - **策略观点**: Observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [25]. - **策略观点**: Stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short - term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **策略观点**: Futures may be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [30]. - **策略观点**: Steel prices may be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: Iron ore prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **策略观点**: Short - term iron ore prices may be strong, but may adjust downward after the festival if downstream demand weakens [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: Glass and soda ash prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [34][36]. - **策略观点**: Glass can be considered slightly bullish in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [35][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [38]. - **策略观点**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend, and manganese - silicon may have potential driving factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices had a small increase, with changes in inventory and basis [41][44]. - **策略观点**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon prices may decline in the short - term [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: Rubber prices were weak, with factors such as expected state reserve sales and weather affecting the market [47]. - **策略观点**: Mid - term bullish, short - term weak, and observation is recommended after the festival [52]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: Crude oil and related product prices increased, with changes in inventory [53]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainties exist, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and observe [54]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: Methanol prices had small changes, with changes in basis [55]. - **策略观点**: The fundamentals are improving, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [56]. Urea - **行情资讯**: Urea prices declined slightly, with changes in basis [57]. - **策略观点**: Low - valuation and weak - driving, long positions can be considered on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [58]. - **策略观点**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and observation is recommended [59]. PVC - **行情资讯**: PVC prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [60]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: Ethylene glycol prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **策略观点**: In the short - term, inventory may be low, but it will accumulate in the fourth quarter, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [63]. PTA - **行情资讯**: PTA prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is complex, and observation is recommended [65]. Para - Xylene - **行情资讯**: PX prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [66]. - **策略观点**: PX may accumulate inventory, and observation is recommended [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: PE prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [68]. - **策略观点**: PE prices may oscillate upward [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: PP prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [70]. - **策略观点**: PP is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high [71]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price fluctuated slightly, with most areas seeing a decline [73]. - **策略观点**: The pig price may be weak, and short - term short positions on near - month contracts and reverse spreads are recommended [74]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was stable with a small decline in some areas [75]. - **策略观点**: The egg price may stabilize after a small decline, and short - term observation is recommended [76]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The price of US soybeans oscillated, and the domestic bean meal price was stable. The supply - demand situation was complex [77]. - **策略观点**: Short - term pressure exists, and in the medium - term, the market is expected to oscillate [78]. Edible Oils - **行情资讯**: The price of edible oils rebounded, and the supply - demand situation in Malaysia and Indonesia had different changes [79][80]. - **策略观点**: The price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term, and long positions can be considered on dips [81]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar price declined slightly, and the supply - demand situation in major producing areas is expected to change [82]. - **策略观点**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, and observation is recommended before the festival [83]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton price declined, and the supply - demand situation was complex [84][85]. - **策略观点**: The cotton price is affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [86].

宏观：美国 9 月制造业、服务业 PMI 回落 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1133，较上一交易日上涨 15 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1119。人民币对美元中间价报 7.1057，较上一交易日调升 49 个基点。 【重要资讯】1）美国 9 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值为 52，预期 52，8 月终值 53。服务业 PMI 初值为 53.9，综合 PMI 初值为 53.6。2）欧元区 9 月制造业 PMI 初值 49.5，预期为持 平于 50.7；服务业 PMI 初值从 50.5 升至 51.4。德国服务业 PMI 跃升至 52.5，制造业 PMI 则跌至 48.5 的四个月低位。3）英国 9 月制造业 PMI 初值意外放缓至 46.2，创 5 个月新低； 服务业 PMI 初值更是超预期下降至 51.9，拖累综合 PMI 初值跌至 4 个月新低的 51。4）美 联储——①古尔斯比：目前没有考虑降息 50 个基点。最终美联储利率可能会稳定在 3%左 右。②鲍曼：预计 2025 年共降息三次。③博斯蒂克：认为当前实际中性利率为 1.25%；未 来某个阶段可能支持将通胀目标区间设 ...

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility continues to decline, consider a long straddle options strategy for stock index futures [2]. - In the bond market, sentiment has improved, and Treasury bond futures have strengthened. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may peak at 1.8% without incremental negative news, but downward movement is limited in the short - term. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver's volatility has declined, and it is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a weak oscillation. Consider a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore prices are supported by resuming shipments, rising hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500. Alumina may oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term. Aluminum and aluminum alloy are expected to trade within certain ranges [2]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term crude oil market lacks strong drivers. The urea supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. PX and PTA are expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - In the agricultural products market, palm oil is supported by falling production. Sugar is expected to be shorted in the short - term, and cotton should be observed on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - In the special and new energy products market, glass and rubber should be observed for the sustainability of spot sales. Industrial silicon is in a strong oscillation, and lithium carbonate is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain has risen, and A - share major indices are in the green. Consider a long straddle options strategy if volatility declines [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35. Use a range - trading strategy and be cautious about chasing up in the short - term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may enter high - level consolidation, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Black - **Steel**: Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have resumed, hot metal production has risen, and restocking demand supports prices. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 780 - 850 and short hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal production area减产 expectations have increased, and downstream restocking demand has improved. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1150 - 1300 and short coke [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is difficult. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1650 - 1800 and short coke while long coking coal [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The 25bp rate cut was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have increased. It is expected to oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term [2]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to trade between 20600 - 21000, and aluminum alloy between 20200 - 20600 [2]. - **Zinc**: The price is stronger overseas than in China, and social inventories are increasing. It is expected to trade between 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and it is in high - level oscillation between 265000 - 285000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak oscillation between 120000 - 125000, and stainless steel is slightly weakening between 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market lacks strong drivers. Wait and see on a single - side basis. Resistance levels are set for WTI, Brent, and SC. Consider expanding opportunities on the options side after volatility increases [2]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in September. PTA is expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium - term, oscillating between 4600 - 4800 [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc. each have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production has declined, supporting its strong performance. Observe if the main contract can stay above 9500 [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be ample. Short - sell in the short - term and watch the 5600 resistance level [2]. - **Cotton**: Old - crop inventories are low before new - cotton is widely available. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Special and New Energy - **Glass and Rubber**: Observe the sustainability of spot sales. Rubber trading sentiment has weakened, and prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices have slightly increased, and it is in a strong oscillation between 8000 - 9500 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is favorable, and it is in a tight - balance in the peak season. It is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on September 16, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows data on the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each sector, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8]. II. Stock Index Plate - On September 16, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 869.549 billion yuan, a +21.91% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1384.757 billion yuan, a +5.50% change; the trading - holding ratio was 62.40% [1]. - There are also data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][11][13]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - On September 16, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 574.17 billion yuan, a +56.80% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 767.467 billion yuan, a +4.46% change; the trading - holding ratio was 76.10% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18][23][22]. IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On September 16, 2025, the basic metals plate had a trading volume of 396.256 billion yuan, a +23.43% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 523.156 billion yuan, a - 0.65% change; the trading - holding ratio was 92.22%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 411.974 billion yuan, a +22.96% change; the holding amount was 512.779 billion yuan, a +1.64% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.16% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [32][21][22]. V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On September 16, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 429.819 billion yuan, a +2.24% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 431.891 billion yuan, a - 1.40% change; the trading - holding ratio was 88.26% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [36][27][28]. VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On September 16, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 306.461 billion yuan, a - 11.36% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 559.628 billion yuan, a +1.77% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.84% [1]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][42][35]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On September 16, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 383.711 billion yuan, a +24.29% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 388.441 billion yuan, a +1.89% change; the trading - holding ratio was 95.71% [2]. - There are data on the rise - fall rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading liquidity data of various market sectors on September 4, 2025, including trading volume, holding volume, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - Various charts are used to show the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [5] 2. Stock Index Plate - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume was 1162.502 billion yuan, with a +11.23% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1378.315 billion yuan, with a +1.32% change; the trading - holding ratio was 83.01% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 411.039 billion yuan, with a - 3.73% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 707.072 billion yuan, with a +1.07% change; the trading - holding ratio was 58.81% [1] 4. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The trading volume was 335.734 billion yuan for basic metals and 615.432 billion yuan for precious metals. The changes compared to the previous trading day were +0.29% and +21.98% respectively. The holding amounts were 505.788 billion yuan and 483.843 billion yuan, with changes of - 0.80% and - 0.11% respectively. The trading - holding ratios were 82.88% and 157.47% respectively [1] 5. Energy Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 482.815 billion yuan, with a +17.67% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 431.791 billion yuan, with a - 0.81% change; the trading - holding ratio was 83.46% [1] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume was 318.503 billion yuan, with a +6.76% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 542.482 billion yuan, with a - 0.09% change; the trading - holding ratio was 53.90% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume was 255.315 billion yuan, with a +16.52% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 367.084 billion yuan, with a - 0.03% change; the trading - holding ratio was 63.88% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - On September 3, 2025, the report presents the trading data of various market sectors including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - Figures 1 - 6 show the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On September 3, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 1045.134 billion yuan, a 1.16% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1360.355 billion yuan, a 3.78% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 76.16%. Figures 7 - 12 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the stock index plate [1][4][13] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On September 3, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 426.963 billion yuan, a 30.96% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 699.576 billion yuan, a 2.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 62.84%. Figures 13 - 18 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][4][18] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On September 3, 2025, the base metal plate had a trading volume of 334.779 billion yuan, a 7.60% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 509.859 billion yuan, a 1.59% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 72.00%. The precious metal plate had a trading volume of 504.543 billion yuan, a 25.87% increase; the holding amount was 484.377 billion yuan, a 2.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 119.58%. Figures 19 - 24 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the metal plate [1][4][29] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On September 3, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 410.311 billion yuan, a 9.88% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 435.298 billion yuan, a 0.52% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 72.82%. Figures 25 - 30 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each main variety in the energy and chemical plate [1][4][41] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On September 3, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 298.340 billion yuan, a 3.71% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 542.954 billion yuan, a 0.54% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 50.40%. Figures 31 - 36 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each main variety in the agricultural products plate [1][4][50] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On September 3, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 219.117 billion yuan, a 3.33% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 367.196 billion yuan, a 1.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 54.22%. Figures 37 - 42 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][4][59]

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition and the 12th Global Derivatives Real Trading Competition are entering the final month, with participants engaged in intense competition [1] - The overall market has shown a strong stock index and significant structural differentiation in commodity markets, influenced by macro policies, external environments, and supply-demand dynamics [1] Market Dynamics - In April, the "tariff shock and market adjustment phase" saw U.S. tariffs on China causing market volatility, leading to short-term pressure on stock indices and declines in energy and some export-dependent commodities, while agricultural products like soybean meal surged due to supply concerns [1] - The "policy game and structural differentiation phase" from May to June indicated a recovery in domestic economic data and policy expectations supporting a rebound in stock indices, while commodity markets returned to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [1] - The "expectation reshaping and style rebalancing phase" in July and August revealed a "de-involution" trend in domestic commodity markets, with gold prices reflecting a redefinition by global investors [1] Participant Insights - As the competition nears its end, many varieties are experiencing a volatile trading environment, making it challenging for participants to navigate [2] - Key factors for participants to monitor include the sustainability of domestic policy effects, the performance of traditional peak seasons like "Golden September and Silver October," and the clarity of overseas policy environments, particularly regarding U.S. interest rate changes and U.S.-China trade relations [2] Competition Statistics - As of September 1, the global competition had 528 accounts with total participation funds of $43.9 million [3] - The "Futures Star Competition" and various awards have seen significant participation, with notable rankings in different categories, indicating a robust engagement in the trading community [3][4]