流动性日报 | 2025-11-21 市场流动性概况 2025-11-20，股指板块成交7277.94亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.76%；持仓金额13395.53亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.73%；成交持仓比为53.89%。 国债板块成交5752.31亿元，较上一交易日变动+25.53%；持仓金额8382.21亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.09%；成交 持仓比为67.68%。 基本金属板块成交5640.88亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.94%；持仓金额6061.92亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.64%；成 交持仓比为113.62%。 贵金属板块成交9770.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+21.73%；持仓金额4473.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.71%；成 交持仓比为290.76%。 能源化工板块成交5294.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+11.44%；持仓金额4563.58亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.98%； 成交持仓比为108.10%。 农产品板块成交3093.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.18%；持仓金额5996.57亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.17%；成 交持仓比为44.96%。 黑色建材板块成交26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 21, 2025, including the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. [1][5][22][28][39][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis of power coal from November 14 to November 20, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented, along with their price ratios on some dates [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 14 to November 20, 2025, shows different values and trends [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, with a note on the rebar's main contract months [21] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented [21] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 14 to November 20, 2025, shows different values [22] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 14 to November 20, 2025, is provided [30] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 20, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the London market are presented [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 14 to November 20, 2025, is provided [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [39] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 14 to November 20, 2025, are presented [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 14 to November 20, 2025, is provided [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market's technology - growth sector remains the main line, and in the long - term, there is a policy - supported attitude towards the capital market, suggesting a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, with its supply - demand pattern potentially improving in the fourth quarter, but influenced by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw and increasing allocation forces [7]. - For precious metals, the U.S. labor market shows a trend of weakening, and it is recommended to buy silver on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals [12][14][16]. - The steel market is in the off - season, with prices likely to oscillate weakly in the short term but may have a marginal inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [29]. - The energy - chemical sector presents various trends, such as rubber having both bullish and bearish factors, and different chemical products having different supply - demand and price trends [44][50]. - The agricultural products market has different outlooks for different products, like pigs having a bearish long - term outlook but potential short - term rebounds, and eggs expected to oscillate in the short term [69][71]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: News includes potential Chinese counter - measures against Japan, AI development plans in Guangdong, Google's Gemini 3 leading in the large - model competition, and warnings about the venture - capital sector [2]. - **Strategy**: After a previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly. Technology - growth is the main line, and a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts have different price changes. The 11 - month LPR remains stable, and the central bank conducts 3000 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 1100 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The fourth - quarter bond market's supply - demand pattern may improve, and it is expected to oscillate and recover, influenced by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices decline. U.S. employment data is mixed, with some sectors showing weakness [8]. - **Strategy**: The U.S. labor market is trending weakly. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices oscillate and decline. LME copper inventory increases, and domestic social inventory shows slight changes [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates remains low, but copper prices have strong support due to tight supply and reduced inventory - accumulation pressure [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise and then fall. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories show different trends [13]. - **Strategy**: With a marginal decrease in domestic aluminum ingot inventory and low overseas inventory, aluminum prices have strong support and may strengthen after oscillation [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices decline. Zinc ore inventory slightly increases, and LME zinc ingot inventory shows certain changes [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore is in short supply during the winter stockpiling period. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices decline. Lead ore inventory slightly increases, and domestic social inventory shows marginal accumulation [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai lead market turning from long to short [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise and then fall. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel - iron prices continue to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The short - term downward space of nickel prices is limited, but there is a risk of negative feedback. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decline. Supply is affected by raw - material shortages, and demand in emerging fields provides support [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Buying on dips is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices show different trends. Production increases, and inventory decreases [21]. - **Strategy**: The industry has strong demand, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. Attention should be paid to relevant factors, and a reference price range is provided [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decline. Overseas ore prices are expected to oscillate downward, and domestic inventory shows accumulation [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with a reference price range provided and attention to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices decline. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to continue to decline due to over - supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum - alloy prices decline. Inventory shows different trends [26]. - **Strategy**: Casting aluminum - alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to strong cost support and general demand [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices decline. Threaded steel and hot - rolled coil show different supply - demand and inventory situations [28]. - **Strategy**: Steel demand is in the off - season, with short - term weak oscillation expected, but a marginal inflection point may occur later [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices decline. The Ximangduo project starts production, and overseas shipments increase [30]. - **Strategy**: Iron - ore supply is strong, demand is stable, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices decline, and inventory increases. Soda - ash prices decline, and inventory decreases [32][34]. - **Strategy**: Glass industry fundamentals are weak, and soda - ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [34][35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices decline. They are in an oscillation range [36]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to the market - sentiment inflection point. Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon and polysilicon prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with attention to relevant factors [40][42]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillate and rebound. There are both bullish and bearish factors [44]. - **Strategy**: A bullish approach is recommended, with a stop - loss set, and a hedging strategy is suggested [46]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil prices decline. U.S. inventory data shows different trends [47]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with a low - buying and high - selling strategy in the long term [48][49]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decline. High - inventory pressure persists [50]. - **Strategy**: Methanol prices are expected to continue to decline, with high - inventory pressure suppressing prices [50]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices oscillate and rise. Supply and demand show certain changes [51]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and buying on dips is recommended [51]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene prices are stable, and styrene prices rise. Supply and demand show different trends [52]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and attention should be paid to the BZN spread [53]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decline. Supply is high, and demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy**: PVC prices are expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [55]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices decline. Supply is high, and inventory accumulates [56]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene - glycol prices are expected to decline, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [57]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [58]. - **Strategy**: PTA prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to the PXN spread [59]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [60]. - **Strategy**: p - Xylene prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to the valuation increase opportunity [61]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rise slightly. Supply and demand show different trends [62]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, influenced by factors such as inventory and demand [63]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [64]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with potential support in the first quarter of next year [66]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show different trends. Supply is normal, and demand is limited [68]. - **Strategy**: The long - term outlook is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. An anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [69]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are stable or decline. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak [70]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [71]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices decline. Global soybean supply is tightening, and domestic inventory is high [73]. - **Strategy**: Soybean - meal prices are expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on squeezing profits [74]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil export data is weak, and domestic oil prices decline [75]. - **Strategy**: Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate. A bullish approach can be considered if production declines [76]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices decline. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season [77]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies due to expected oversupply and high import profits [79]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillate. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak [80]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to weak demand and high selling - hedging pressure [82].

Core Insights - In October, the national futures market in China experienced a trading volume of 603 million contracts and a trading value of 61.22 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.26% in volume but an increase of 4.54% in value [1] - From January to October, the cumulative trading volume reached 7.347 billion contracts and a cumulative trading value of 608.84 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 14.86% in volume and 21.82% in value [3] Trading Analysis - The decline in October's trading volume is attributed to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, which reduced trading days by five, along with liquidity shocks from capital inflows and outflows [5] - Financial futures and options saw a decrease in both trading volume and value due to the A-share market closure and fewer trading days [5] - The steel and building materials sector also experienced a decline in trading volume and value, influenced by low real estate sentiment and cyclical downturns [5] - Agricultural products, including oilseeds, soft commodities, and feed, contributed significantly to the drop in trading scale in October [5] - The energy and chemical sectors faced a similar decline in trading volume and value, further impacting the overall trading scale [5] - In contrast, the precious metals sector showed positive growth in both trading volume and value, emerging as a standout performer in October [5] Market Outlook - Despite the decline in October, the overall trend for the first ten months indicates significant year-on-year growth in trading volume and value, driven by surges in precious metals and financial futures [6] - The energy and chemical sectors also contributed positively to the trading scale, while the non-ferrous metals sector benefited from various market dynamics [6] - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that November will see a substantial rebound in trading volume compared to October, with projections for 2025 indicating that trading volume and value will exceed 8.8 billion contracts and 73 trillion yuan, respectively, setting new historical records [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of Shen Zhichao, a seasoned trader with 12 years of experience, who has achieved notable success in the national futures trading competition, moving from ninth place in 2023 to second place in the industry group this year [2][3]. Group 1: Trading Experience and Background - Shen Zhichao's background as a meteorologist has provided him with a unique advantage in trading, particularly in weather-sensitive agricultural products [2]. - His trading journey reflects a blend of expertise from his previous career in numerical weather forecasting, which he considers a "secret weapon" in his trading strategy [2]. Group 2: Trading Strategies and Market Analysis - In September, Shen anticipated prolonged rainfall in North China, identifying potential trading opportunities in the futures market, although he did not achieve profitability from this prediction [3]. - His success in the competition was largely attributed to his trading in the shipping index (European line) futures and gold futures, with the shipping index contributing the most to his profits [3]. - Shen's bearish outlook on the shipping market was influenced by the dual impacts of the Red Sea situation and trade wars, leading him to adopt a short position [3]. - He actively engages with multiple freight forwarding groups to track real-time shipping company quotes and freight prices, which are critical for his market predictions [3]. Group 3: Trading Philosophy and Advice - Shen's trading style is characterized as trend trading, focusing on familiar products and entering the market only when there are clear trend opportunities [4]. - He emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive accumulation of time, experience, cognition, mindset, and skills in trading, advising newcomers to leave the market if they lose interest or feel unsuitable after a few years [4]. - The process of trading involves continuous self-affirmation and self-doubt, ultimately leading to the discovery of a trading path that suits the individual [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the important events and data releases in the coming week that may impact the futures market, including domestic and international economic data, policy changes, and industry reports [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This Week's Key Focus - On November 10th at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will release October financial statistics and social financing scale data [2][3]. - On November 13th at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce October CPI, with a possible delay if the US government remains shut down [2][9]. - On November 14th at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the October national economic operation [2][13]. This Week's Hotspot Preview - **November 10th**: Anticipated October social financing scale increment is 1.65 trillion yuan, new RMB loans are 470 billion yuan, and M2 balance is expected to grow 8.0% year - on - year. Lower - than - previous values may suppress commodity and stock index futures but benefit treasury bond futures. The agricultural department will release the October agricultural products supply - demand report [3][4]. - **November 12th**: OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report between 18:00 - 21:00 [5]. - **November 13th**: EIA will release its monthly short - term energy outlook report at 01:00, IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report at 17:00, and the US will announce October CPI at 21:30 [7][8][9]. - **November 14th**: EIA will announce the US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending November 7th at 01:00. The National Bureau of Statistics will release November's first - ten - day important production materials prices and the October 70 - city residential sales price report at 9:30, and the October national economic operation press conference will be held at 10:00, along with the release of October major industrial product output. Lower - than - previous values in consumption, industrial added value, and investment may suppress stock index and commodity futures but benefit treasury bond futures [10][11][13]. - **November 15th**: USDA will release its monthly supply - demand report at 01:00, and the National Energy Administration will release the October energy production report at 10:00 [15][16].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is officially released, guiding future focus areas. Sino-US economic and trade teams reach a phased consensus in Kuala Lumpur, reducing tariff policy disturbances and boosting market risk appetite [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declines marginally, indicating weakening supply and demand, and the economy still needs policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the focus shifts to employment and inflation during the US government shutdown [2]. - The US "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations, with stagnant wage growth and marginal stabilization in employment [2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on November 6, up 27 points from the previous trading day [3]. - It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. The key technical level of 7.10 is crucial for short - term exchange rate trends [4]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed up collectively in the previous trading day, with the CSI 300 index rising 1.43%. The trading volume in the two markets rebounded by 18.2906 billion yuan [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to intensified external disturbances and increased sensitivity to external risks in the domestic market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, medium - and long - term treasury bond futures declined, while short - term bonds stabilized. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% [5]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, and if the bond market corrects due to the rumored public fund fee new regulations, it may present a buying opportunity [6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (Europe Line) - On November 6, the container shipping index (Europe line) futures market closed down across the board, with the main contract EC2512 performing weakly. The shipping futures led the decline, with the container shipping index (Europe line) falling 3.91% [8]. - Short - term container shipping futures for the Europe line are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, driven by the game between the expectation of Red Sea route resumption and spot demand [10]. Group 6: Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate and consolidate. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [12]. - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost precious metal prices, but in the short - term, it is in an adjustment phase. In November, it is difficult to have strong drivers [15]. Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $4.97 per pound, up 0.19%; LME copper closed at $10687 per ton, down 0.1%; SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [16]. - When the copper price falls to around 85,000 yuan per ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases significantly, but whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation [17]. Group 8: Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 21,665 yuan per ton, up 1.29% month - on - month; LME aluminum closed at $2843 per ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [18]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina prices are expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [20][21]. Group 9: Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,675 yuan per ton. The price of zinc is expected to be strongly volatile, with sufficient bottom support in November [21]. Group 10: Tin - The main contract of SHFE tin closed at 283,400 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with a stable resistance level at 290,000 yuan [21]. Group 11: Lead - The main contract of SHFE lead closed at 17,430 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level due to supply shortages [23]. Group 12: Black Metals - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the anti - dumping investigation of hot - rolled steel sheets may put pressure on far - month contracts. Hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to abundant supply and weak demand. There are opportunities to short at high prices after valuation repair [27][28]. - Coking coal and coke are in short supply in the spot market, and long - short spreads are strengthening. In the short term, prices may face adjustment, and in the long term, they are suitable for long positions in the black metal sector [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate due to high inventory and weak demand, with support from the cost side [30][31]. Group 13: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors as potential upward risks, and will be suppressed by fundamentals in the long term [33][34]. - LPG prices are expected to fluctuate, with unclear short - term drivers and a lack of upward momentum [35][36]. - PX - PTA prices are expected to be relatively strongly volatile. PX is expected to maintain a relatively strong position, and PTA may have support below a processing fee of 230 on the disk [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chip prices are expected to rebound slightly following the cost of coal in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3750 - 4150 [40][42]. - PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43][45]. - PE prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure and weak demand support [46][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are likely to be weak, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [49][50]. - Fuel oil prices' high - sulfur cracking is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to taking profits. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices' fundamentals are improving [51][53]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm [54][55]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be limited in upward movement due to high - supply expectations and cost support. Glass prices may face downward pressure in the 01 contract but have cost support and policy expectations in the long term. Caustic soda prices may face market pressure as production recovers [56][59]. Group 14: Pulp and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to be relatively volatile in the short term. Pulp prices are supported by raw material price increases, and offset paper prices are supported by cost factors [60][61]. Group 15: Logs - Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The current main strategy is to short at high prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 01 - 03 spread in the medium - to long - term [62][63]. Group 16: Propylene - Propylene prices are expected to remain weak due to a loose supply situation and weak terminal demand [64][65]. Group 17: Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be supported by improving demand during the peak season. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but short - to medium - term focus is on fundamentals [66]. - Oilseed prices' upward trend is delayed. Imported soybeans' buying sentiment is reduced, and domestic soybean meal has a high inventory. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [67][68]. - Edible oil prices are waiting for opportunities after negative factors are exhausted. Palm oil has supply pressure, soybean oil has inventory pressure but cost support, and rapeseed oil supply concerns remain [69]. - Soybean No. 1 prices are recommended for short - term observation. The market has entered a bullish trend, and short positions should be avoided [71]. - Corn and starch prices show signs of upward breakthrough, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in the external market [72][73].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft provides future focus directions, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultation has reached a phased consensus, but the long - term game remains. The manufacturing PMI has declined marginally, and the economy needs policy support. Overseas, the Fed has cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is in a tug - of - war around 7.10. Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal, and it is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week [3][4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to a dull news environment. Treasury bonds suggest holding medium - term long positions. The container shipping European line is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7][8][13]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and copper's 12 - month contract has reached its high. Aluminum is expected to be in high - level fluctuations, and alumina may be in weak fluctuations [18][21][23]. - Zinc is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations, and nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. Tin is in high - level fluctuations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state [26][29][30]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. Lead is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Steel products are expected to be in an oscillating adjustment. Iron ore has limited upward space, and coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [37][40][41]. - Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand. Crude oil is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range this week [42][46]. - LPG is affected by cost. PX - PTA is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, and MEG is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations and maintain a short - position allocation [48][52][55]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and PP and PE are in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in low - level fluctuations [57][61][64]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening. Asphalt's basis is weakening [68][69][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates with internal differences, and Powell's hawkish speech reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal. It is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 is the focus of the battle between bulls and bears [3][4]. Stock Index - Last Friday, most stock indexes fell except for the CSI 1000. Short - term news is dull, and it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds rose significantly. The central bank's stance on supporting monetary policy and resuming secondary - market bond purchases improved market expectations. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [7][8]. Container Shipping European Line - There are both positive and negative factors. The contract price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the 1800 - 1900 point range. Trend traders can wait, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10][11][13]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals continued to adjust. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term is in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15][16][18]. Copper - The 12 - month contract of copper has reached its high. In November, the market focuses on the 1 - month contract. If the December interest - rate cut expectation increases, there may be an upward impulse [19][21]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is affected by macro - policies and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations. Alumina is in a supply - surplus state and may be in weak fluctuations. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations [23][24][25]. Zinc - Zinc prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. There is an upward drive in November, and it is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro - situation [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the Sino - US tariff situation is changeable [27][29]. Tin - Tin prices are in high - level fluctuations, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [30]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state in the 74000 - 85000 yuan/ton range, affected by supply and demand factors [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to be cautious when investing in polycrystalline silicon [33][34][35]. Lead - Lead prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to use option double - selling strategies to earn option premiums [36]. Steel Products - Steel products are in an oscillating adjustment. The follow - up apparent demand needs to be improved, and it is affected by raw material costs and the macro - environment [37]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". It is recommended to short at high levels after valuation repair [38][39][40]. Coking Coal and Coke - Downstream coking plants and steel mills are actively replenishing inventory. Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [41]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. After the macro - sentiment fades, they are expected to oscillate [42]. Crude Oil - Last week, crude oil was in a sideways adjustment. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range, and it is difficult to break through [44][46]. LPG - LPG is affected by cost. The domestic fundamental support is relatively limited, and it is mainly affected by the cost side [47][48]. PX - PTA - PTA's price has rebounded due to the "anti - involution" rumor and improved fundamentals. It is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, but the surplus expectation remains [49][50][52]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol's demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to short at high levels [53][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol 01 may continue to decline due to the delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation [56][57]. PP - PP is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally relieve, and it is expected to be weak [59][61]. PE - PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [63][64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak due to the expected inventory accumulation. Styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to short after a rebound [66][67]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening due to improved fundamentals [68][69]. Asphalt - Asphalt's basis is weakening. The short - term is affected by external disturbances, and the long - term demand in the south may be boosted [70][72].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, recent Sino-US economic and trade talks have had a positive outcome. Technology remains the main market trend, and the policy supports the capital market. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [2][4]. - In the bond market, the central bank's restart of bond trading is positive for the bond market in the short term. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is affected by fundamentals, fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation. It is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - In the precious metals market, the decline in precious metal prices is a "correction in the upward trend." It is recommended to maintain a long - term view and allocate long positions on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as supply disruptions and positive market sentiment [12][14][17][19]. - In the black building materials market, the long - term upward logic of steel prices remains intact, but the short - term demand is weak. For black building materials, it is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound on dips [35][46]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be temporarily observed, and oil is recommended to be low - bought and high - sold in a range [56][58]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term pig price may rebound, but the medium - term is still under pressure [81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The 14th Five - Year Plan proposes measures for key technology research, strategic investment plans in the US and Japan are announced, and some companies have good profit growth [2]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month. The technology sector is the main trend, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Treasury bond futures prices change, the 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on boosting consumption, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is held, and the central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's operation is positive for the bond market in the short term. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fluctuate, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and there are discussions about gold reserves in the Philippines and South Korea [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The decline in precious metal prices is a correction. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices first decline and then rise, LME and domestic inventories change, and the downstream procurement sentiment improves slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to the expected interest - rate cut and tight supply, copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise, inventory and trading volume change, and the downstream procurement willingness is weak [13]. - **Strategy**: Supply disruptions and positive market sentiment are expected to drive aluminum prices to oscillate strongly [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices decline slightly, inventory and basis change [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Due to factors such as inventory accumulation and structural risks, zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices decline, inventory and basis change [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to factors such as inventory reduction and positive market sentiment, lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices decline sharply, and the cost and supply - demand situation of nickel - related products change [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended. If the price drops enough, long positions can be considered [22]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decline, inventory and supply - demand situation change [23]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term. It is recommended to observe [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices change, and the futures price declines slightly [24]. - **Strategy**: After continuous rises, the price is under pressure. Pay attention to supply elasticity and hedging pressure [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decline, inventory and basis change [26]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's monetary policy [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices decline, inventory and raw material prices change [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe due to weak demand and falling raw material prices [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices decline, inventory and trading volume change [31]. - **Strategy**: Positive factors such as cost support and supply tightening are expected to support prices [32]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices change, and inventory and trading volume change [34]. - **Strategy**: The long - term upward logic of steel prices remains, but the short - term demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US talks [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rise, and inventory and basis change [36]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore weakens, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate [37][38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices change, and inventory and trading volume change [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to oscillate widely, and soda ash prices are expected to consolidate narrowly [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices change, and the market is in an oscillating range [42]. - **Strategy**: They are likely to follow the black market. Pay attention to potential supply constraints [44][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices change, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [47][49]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, and polysilicon's supply - demand pattern may improve [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillate, and there are different views on supply and demand [52][53]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to close short - term long positions and observe. Partial hedging positions can be established [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rise, and inventory changes [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term and test OPEC's export - price support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices change, and inventory and basis change [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe due to factors such as slow import unloading and high inventory [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices change, and inventory and basis change [61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or consider long positions at low prices due to slow inventory accumulation and potential demand [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices decline, and inventory and basis change [64]. - **Strategy**: Benzene prices may stop falling due to factors such as cost and inventory [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decline, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to over - supply and weak demand [68]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decline, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [69]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [70]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices change, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [71]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to potential production - cut signals and their impact on processing fees and prices [72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices decline, and inventory and supply - demand situation change [73]. - **Strategy**: It mainly follows the oil price and is affected by PTA's production - cut expectations [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decline, and inventory and demand change [75]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to maintain low - level oscillations due to factors such as high inventory and cost support [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decline, and inventory and demand change [77]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the price is under pressure due to high inventory [78]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rise, and there are differences in price trends in different regions [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound, medium - term short positions can be established on rallies [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable, and the market supply and demand are balanced [82]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe as the spot price has limited upward space [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices rise, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are high [84][85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to high inventory and loose supply [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices decline, and palm oil production and export data change [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and wait for clear production signals [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebound, and import control policies change [89][90]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens due to factors such as supply and import profit [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillate, and the downstream demand is weak [92]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [93].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the market faces uncertainties, but in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. For the stock index, it is advisable to buy on dips; for the bond market, it may maintain a volatile trend, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect; for precious metals, maintain a long - term bullish view and wait to buy on dips; for various commodities, different strategies are recommended according to their fundamentals [4][6][8]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Shenzhen supports mergers and acquisitions in strategic emerging industries; from October 1 - 19, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year - on - year; the EU will discuss rare - earth export controls with China; Trump said a trade deal might be reached at APEC [2]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, the market's risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.02%, and - 0.01% respectively. Japan plans an economic stimulus package, and China's foreign - related payments in the first three quarters reached a record high. The central bank conducted a net injection of 947 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term decline in risk appetite benefits the bond market. In the fourth quarter, pay attention to the fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market may improve in terms of supply - demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 1.56%, and silver rose 0.04%. The macro - environment is favorable for precious metals, but the持仓 needs to be consolidated. Overseas risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the release of US CPI data is awaited [7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - term bullish view. Wait for the price to stabilize and buy on dips. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 928 - 982 yuan/g, and for silver is 10962 - 11690 yuan/kg [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic spot premium was general. The import loss was about 600 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but the mood has improved. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and prices may strengthen after short - term fluctuations [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices were strong. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased. The domestic inventory is low, and prices may rise further in the short term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends, and the import was at a loss [14]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and overseas structural risks were high. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand improved [16]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of lead are favorable, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated at a low level. The cost was stable, and the demand for intermediate products increased [17]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. In the long term, the price has support [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply was tight, and the demand was mixed [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it may maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price decreased slightly, and the futures price increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals have improved, but pay attention to the supply recovery and hedging pressure. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 75,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose. The domestic and overseas prices and inventory had different changes [20]. - **Strategy**: The mine price has short - term support, but the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton [21][22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered. Pay attention to the downstream demand. If it continues, the market may continue to improve [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded. The inventory increased slightly [24]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve the mood, but the high - level warehouse receipt limits the upward space [25]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. The inventory decreased slightly, and the demand recovered weakly [27]. - **Strategy**: The short - term demand is weak. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations. In the long term, the trend remains unchanged [28]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [30]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory also increased [31][33]. - **Strategy**: Glass demand is weak, and the supply is increasing. Soda ash supply is strong, and demand is weak. Both may maintain a weak trend [32][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot price was higher than the futures price [35]. - **Strategy**: They are likely to follow the black - sector market. Pay attention to potential driving factors in the manganese ore sector [36][38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. The supply and demand of both have different characteristics [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon may fluctuate in the short term. Polysilicon is expected to have a phased correction. Pay attention to the supply - side changes [40][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoons and stock - market benefits. There are different views on the rise and fall [45][46]. - **Strategy**: The price is stable in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long, and partially build a hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined - oil prices rose. The inventory of refined oil decreased [51]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed slightly. The import was delayed, and the demand was weak [53]. - **Strategy**: The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is at a low level, and the cost support is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand had different changes [57]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling. Pay attention to the cost and demand changes [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - **Strategy**: The supply is excessive, and the export expectation is poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand decreased slightly [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to increase, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [64]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The supply was high, and the demand was low [65]. - **Strategy**: The inventory is difficult to reduce. It mainly follows the crude - oil price. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [68]. - **Strategy**: The price may maintain a low - level oscillation. Pay attention to the cost and demand changes [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure is high, and the demand increased slightly [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply is excessive, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [71]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was recovering [73]. - **Strategy**: The short - term may be strong, but the medium - term supply pressure is large. Consider shorting on rallies [74]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [75]. - **Strategy**: The spot may rebound slightly, but the upward space is limited. The futures may maintain a weak bottom - building trend. It is recommended to wait and see [76]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices fell. The supply pressure was large, and the demand was weak [77]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies [79]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export increased, and production also increased. The prices of domestic oils and fats fell [80]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil supply may reverse. It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer signal [81]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazil's production is expected to increase, and the export has increased [82]. - **Strategy**: The overall supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [83]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated slightly. The acquisition price increased slightly [84]. - **Strategy**: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to increase. The upward space is limited in the short term [85].