Company Updates - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately RMB 868.5 billion for the first five months of 2025, with May sales at about RMB 183.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% [1] - Vanke completed the sale of 72.96 million A-shares, raising a total of RMB 4.79 billion, with an average transaction price of RMB 6.57 per share [1] Market Developments - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves has exceeded RMB 100 billion this year, reaching RMB 1,083.48 billion as of June 10, 2025, covering 442 projects [2] - Guangzhou's real estate policy has been optimized to fully remove purchase, sale, and price restrictions, while also lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [3] Policy Initiatives - The Central Committee and State Council have issued guidelines to increase the supply of affordable housing and support social forces in operating long-term rental housing [2] - Guangzhou plans to advance the renovation of over 150 old residential communities and update more than 9,000 old elevators in 2025, with a fixed asset investment of RMB 100 billion for urban village renovations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in China has seen a significant amount, with approximately 3.54 trillion yuan issued from January to April, but a decrease in April compared to previous months due to the launch of special treasury bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds [1][2]. Summary by Sections Local Government Bond Issuance - In April, local government bond issuance was 693.3 billion yuan, a decline from the issuance in February and March [1]. - From January to April, the issuance of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts was about 1.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 80% of the annual quota of 2 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The issuance of new special bonds was 1.19 trillion yuan, representing 27% of the annual quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, which is slightly slower than the expected timeline [1][2]. Land Reserve Special Bonds - There has been a noticeable acceleration in the issuance of land reserve special bonds, with Hunan and Xiamen joining the ranks in April [1][2]. - Hunan issued two batches of land reserve special bonds totaling nearly 14 billion yuan for 125 projects, while Xiamen issued 5.04 billion yuan for six projects [2][3]. - As of May 9, five provinces had issued a total of 78.23 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds, with Guangdong leading at 31.9 billion yuan [3]. Economic Policy and Future Outlook - The central government is expected to implement more aggressive macro policies to boost domestic demand, with an emphasis on accelerating the issuance of local special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds [6][8]. - The second quarter is anticipated to see a peak in government bond supply, with local governments actively expanding effective investment [8]. - The total amount of new special bonds yet to be issued this year is approximately 3.21 trillion yuan, indicating significant potential for future investment [8].

以下文章来源于申万宏源固收研究 ，作者黄伟平 张晋源 申万宏源固收研究 . 申万宏源证券研究所债券研究部 【申万宏源债券】黄伟平 张晋源 摘要 1）2001-2015年，土储贷款是土地储备的主要来源；2） 2015年以来，地方政府债务管控规范化背景下，土储贷款被叫停；3）2017年土储专项债正式启 动，2017年-2019年间密集发行，成为土储资金的重要来源；2019年9月-2024年10月，土储专项债被叫停发行；4）2024年9月，房地产承压、城投托底压 力上升背景下，2024年10月12日国新办新闻发布会提及"允许专项债券用于土地储备"，土储专项债正式重启。 2024年10月12日，国新办发布会提及"允许专项债券用于土地储备"，土储专项债自2019年9月国常会被叫停以来，时隔五年重启发行。土储专项债缘何 被叫停，又为何重启，土地市场下行背景下能带来怎样的增量支持，本文尝试分析： 2001年我国土储制度正式确立以来，土储资金来源经历了几轮变革： 本轮土地储备专项债的核心特征： 1）收储对象与之前的土储专项债有明显区别： 主要包括 "企业无力或无意愿继续开发、已供应未动工的房地产用地，以及其他符合收回收购条件 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of land reserve special bonds is expected to provide financial support for local governments to acquire and recycle land, improve the financial situation of real - estate enterprises, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market from the land side [72]. - More regions are expected to follow the practices of provinces that have issued special bonds, and the issuance speed of land reserve special bonds is likely to accelerate. However, the policy effects need further observation due to issues such as mortgage - debt relationships and acquisition pricing [3][72]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Local Government Special Bond Investment Areas Have Expanded - Local government bonds are classified into general bonds and special bonds based on repayment sources. In 2024, local government special bonds totaled 7.7 trillion yuan in issuance, with 4.0 trillion yuan in new special bonds and 3.7 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds. By the end of 2024, the balance of special bonds was 30.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 65% of local government debt [12]. - The investment areas of special bonds have expanded. In 2025, four new investment areas were added, including supporting the acquisition of existing commercial housing, revitalizing idle land, developing infrastructure for emerging strategic industries, and renovating old urban areas [15]. - From 2019 - 2024, the areas with relatively high investment of new special bonds were municipal and industrial park infrastructure, shantytown renovation, and healthcare, with scale proportions of 27.4%, 13.4%, and 7.2% respectively [15]. 3.2 Historical Review of Land Reserve Special Bonds - Before 2016, land reserve institutions could borrow land reserve loans from banks. In 2016, borrowing land reserve loans from banks was suspended, and land reserve funds were raised through channels such as local government special bonds, state - owned land revenue funds, and land transfer revenues [24][26]. - Land reserve special bonds were officially launched in 2017 and suspended in September 2019. From July 2017 to September 2019, a total of 426 land reserve special bonds were issued, with a total amount of 1491.4 billion yuan [30][31]. 3.3 Relevant Policies and Background for the New Round of Resuming Land Reserve Special Bonds - Since 2024, central meetings have introduced policies to support the revitalization of idle land. In October 2024, the Ministry of Finance allowed special bonds to be used for land reserve [35]. - In November 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice providing specific guidance on using special bond funds to acquire idle land, aiming to reduce the scale of idle land, improve the land supply - demand relationship, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [36]. - In March 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a new regulation on land reserve special bonds, clarifying requirements for bond issuance and fund use [37]. 3.4 Progress of Local Plans to Use Special Bonds to Acquire Idle Land - As of April 10, according to incomplete statistics from the China Index Academy, 848 parcels of idle land were planned to be acquired with special bonds, with a total area of over 40 million square meters and a total amount of 128.2 billion yuan. The pace of announcements has accelerated since March [46]. - Fourteen out of 31 provinces and municipalities have announced plans to use special bonds to acquire idle land. Guangdong Province leads with a planned acquisition amount close to 50 billion yuan [47]. - Among the announced parcels, residential land accounts for 63.5%, commercial and office land for 25.8%, and industrial land for 7.3%. Most of the acquired land was transferred between 2020 - 2024 [52]. 3.5 Issuance of Land Reserve Special Bonds for Acquiring Idle Land - As of April 10, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Hunan have issued special bonds for acquiring idle land, with a total amount of approximately 40.2 billion yuan, covering 166 projects [3][54]. - Since February, Beijing has issued special bonds involving 25 land reserve projects, with a total issuance of 11.687 billion yuan, mainly for primary land development [60]. - In March, Sichuan issued special bonds involving 3 land reserve projects, with 330 million yuan used to acquire 2 parcels of idle land in Chengdu and Yibin [68]. - In April, Hunan issued land reserve special bonds worth 9.415 billion yuan, accounting for 41.5% of the provincial special bond funds for project construction [71]. 3.6 Investment Suggestions - The resumption of land reserve special bonds can support local governments in land acquisition and recycling, improve the financial situation of real - estate enterprises, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [72]. - More regions are expected to follow the practices of provinces that have issued special bonds, and the issuance speed of land reserve special bonds is likely to accelerate. However, the policy effects need further observation, and it is recommended to pay attention to relevant local state - owned enterprises and developers [3][72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao (0817.HK) [4][6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in profitability, forecasting an attributable profit of approximately 1 billion yuan for 2024, compared to a core net loss of 6.9 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The management transition aims to optimize operations, with the new chairman bringing over 25 years of experience in hotel and real estate development, which is anticipated to stabilize performance [2] - The company is actively expanding its land acquisition in first-tier and core second-tier cities, with total land acquisition exceeding 20 billion yuan in early 2025, indicating confidence in the real estate market [3] - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves is expected to enhance cash flow and facilitate further land acquisitions [3] Summary by Sections Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 68.205 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.042 billion yuan, marking a 115.1% increase from the previous year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from -0.51 yuan in 2023 to 0.08 yuan in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14x [5][8] - The company anticipates revenue growth rates of -5.8% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, and 7.0% in 2026 [5] Land Acquisition and Market Position - The company has been proactive in land acquisition, securing multiple plots in major cities, which reflects a strategic positioning in a recovering real estate market [3] - The total land acquisition amount in late 2024 reached 15.8 billion yuan, further solidifying the company's market presence [3] Management and Strategic Direction - The new chairman's extensive experience is expected to enhance the company's market-oriented operations and stabilize performance [2] - The management's focus on lean management practices has led to reduced costs and improved efficiency, contributing to the anticipated profit growth [1]