Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new features of local government bonds include scale expansion, longer terms, and declining interest rates. The position of special bonds in local government bonds is becoming increasingly prominent. The issuance scale of local government bonds is restricted by the issuance quota, and the issuance rhythm is evolving towards a more balanced distribution. There are three stages of debt resolution: non - government bond replacement, implicit debt resolution, and expansion of the replacement scope. The investor structure of local government bonds is dominated by commercial banks, and the market is relatively concentrated. Currently, there may be room for the spread of local government bonds to compress, and attention should be paid to 3Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds as well as "flying" bonds [2]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. New Features of Local Government Bonds: Scale Expansion, Longer Terms, and Declining Interest Rates - Since 2015, local government bonds have become the only legal borrowing channel for local governments. In 2025 (January - September), the issuance scale was 8.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.85 trillion yuan; the average issuance interest rate was 1.93%, a year - on - year decrease of 44bp; the weighted average issuance term was 15.63 years, a year - on - year increase of 2.46 years [7]. - Special bonds are becoming more prominent. From 2015 to 2024, the issuance scale of general bonds was between 1.7 trillion and 3.6 trillion yuan, and its proportion in local government bonds decreased from 74.6% to 21.1%. The issuance scale of special bonds increased from 0.97 trillion yuan to 7.7 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 25.84%, and its proportion increased from 25.4% to 78.9% [13]. - The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds has significantly lengthened, from 10.3 years in 2019 to 15.6 years in 2025 (as of September 30). The proportion of local government bonds with a term of over 20 years has increased from 20.12% in 2021 to 31.95% in 2024 [18]. - In 2025 (January - September), the funds of new local government bonds were mainly invested in traditional infrastructure and land development, such as municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, land reserve, etc. [22] 2. Factors Affecting the Issuance Scale and Implementation Effect of Local Government Bonds 2.1 Issuance Scale Constrained by Quotas and Rhythm Evolving towards Balance - The issuance scale of local government bonds is restricted by the issuance quota. It is estimated that the early - batch quota for 2026 is about 3.12 trillion yuan. The issuance rhythm has shifted from being concentrated in the second and third quarters to a more balanced distribution throughout the year [36]. 2.2 Market Impact of Local Government Bond Supply Regulated by Institutional Demand and Supporting Policies - The impact of local government bond supply on the market is affected by the allocation demand of financial institutions. Commercial banks are the main holders of local government bonds, and their allocation willingness is affected by asset returns, regulatory requirements, market sentiment, and the "asset shortage" situation [39]. - The central bank's supporting liquidity policies can alleviate the impact of supply shocks. When local government bonds are issued on a large scale, the central bank can use policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and medium - term lending facilities to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system [40]. 3. Three Stages of Debt Resolution 3.1 Types of Local Government Bonds for Debt Resolution - There have been three types of local government bonds for debt resolution in history, and two types are still being issued. Replacement bonds (issued from 2015 - 2019) were used to replace non - government bond - form local government stock debts; special refinancing bonds (initially issued in 2020) are used to repay local government stock implicit debts; new local government special bonds have been used for debt resolution since 2024, with 80 billion yuan allocated annually for five consecutive years [43]. 3.2 Three Stages of Debt Resolution - Replacement of non - government bonds (2015 - 2018): Through the issuance of replacement bonds, most of the non - government bond - form debts such as loans and corporate bonds were converted into legal debts, laying the foundation for the local bond management system [46]. - Resolution of implicit debts (since 2017): After the concept of "implicit debt" was proposed in 2017, relevant policies were issued to start the process of implicit debt resolution. Special refinancing bonds have been used to resolve implicit debts, and some regions have achieved zero implicit debts [47]. - Expansion of the replacement scope: The replacement scope of replacement bonds has expanded to areas outside of implicit debts, such as repaying government - owed enterprise accounts and dealing with government - owed payments in PPP contracts [49]. 4. Investor Structure of Local Government Bonds As of the end of August 2025, investors in the inter - bank bond market held 50.77 trillion yuan of local government bonds, accounting for 95.78%. Among them, commercial banks held 37.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 71.08% [52]. 5. Investment Recommendations 5.1 Compression Opportunities for Current Local Government Bond Spreads - The implementation of debt - resolution policies and the improvement of liquidity have increased the possibility of local government bond spread compression. Currently, the spreads of 3Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds are at relatively high historical levels, and there may be room for compression [56][59]. 5.2 Attention to "Flying" Bonds - "Flying" bonds refer to bonds with unexpectedly high issuance interest rates. The spreads of "flying" bonds generally show a narrowing trend after issuance. In 2025 (as of the third quarter), there were 27 local government bonds with a spread of 30BP or more, mostly with a term of 15 years and mainly new special bonds [66][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds reached a record high for the same period, with the 2 - trillion - yuan implicit debt replacement nearing completion. The fourth - quarter government bond supply pressure is expected to decline, and the incremental fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone, with ample room for future action. The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, and efforts will continue to be made to resolve debts while promoting development and build a long - term government debt management mechanism [2][32][34]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Local Government Bond - Related Policy Review - Fiscal policy: A more active fiscal policy is implemented, with a larger - scale government bond issuance plan. The fiscal deficit rate is increased to about 4%, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan. The planned issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is 1.3 trillion yuan, and special treasury bonds of 500 billion yuan are to support state - owned banks in replenishing core tier - one capital. The new local government special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan. The government also promotes the early issuance and use of bonds and guides and drives social capital [4][5][6]. - Debt replacement: The implicit debt replacement policy is accelerated, with a 6 - trillion - yuan local government debt quota approved to replace the stock implicit debt from 2024 - 2026, 2 trillion yuan per year. Additionally, 80 billion yuan is allocated from new local government special bonds annually for five consecutive years for debt resolution. The debt - risk - high area list is dynamically adjusted [7][8]. - Debt management: The local debt monitoring system and government debt risk indicator system are improved, and the special bond management mechanism is optimized. Penalties for illegal debt - raising and false debt - resolution are strengthened, and the reform and transformation of local government financing platforms are promoted [9]. 3.2 Review of the Local Government Bond Market in the First Three Quarters of 2025 - **Issuance overview**: In the first three quarters of 2025, 1,816 local government bonds were issued, totaling 8.53 trillion yuan, a 27.60% increase year - on - year. Special bonds accounted for 75.96% of new issuances. New bonds were issued at 4.35 trillion yuan, and refinancing bonds at 4.18 trillion yuan, with 1.99 trillion yuan of special refinancing special bonds for implicit debt replacement. The net financing was 6.15 trillion yuan, a 54.24% increase. The issuance of land reserve special bonds accelerated in Q3. The issuance of bonds with a term of 10 years or more increased, and the weighted average issuance term was 15.63 years. Economically active regions and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas were the main issuers of new special bonds, while key provinces mainly issued refinancing bonds [13][19][20]. - **Interest rate and spread analysis**: In Q3 2025, the average issuance interest rate of local government bonds rebounded due to multiple factors. The average issuance interest rates in Q1, Q2, and Q3 were 1.94%, 1.85%, and 2.01% respectively. The spread widened in the first three quarters of 2025, and there were significant differences in the spread trends among provinces [22][23]. - **Investment areas of local government special bonds**: In the first three quarters of 2025, infrastructure was the main focus of special bond funds. The top three investment areas were urban infrastructure, transportation infrastructure construction, and urban - rural development, accounting for 51.95% of the total. Land reserve special bonds for idle land recovery projects restarted, with an issuance amount accounting for 7.01% [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Local Government Bonds - **Issuance outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the government bond issuance will enter the final stage, with reduced supply pressure. The new local government debt quota for 2026 is expected to be issued more quickly. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q4 is 1.26 trillion yuan, including 730 billion yuan of new special bonds [32]. - **Fiscal policy outlook**: The fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone in Q4, with funds tilted towards large economic provinces. The government will strengthen the supervision of relevant funds and project lifecycle management [34]. - **Interest rate outlook**: The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, affected by multiple factors such as monetary policy, market sentiment, and policy changes [35]. - **Debt management outlook**: The principle of resolving debts while promoting development will be adhered to, and efforts will be made to build a long - term government debt management mechanism. The government will continue to implement a package of debt - resolution measures, strengthen debt management, and improve the performance of bond fund use [36][37].

2015年施行的新预算法赋予了各省（自治区、直辖市等）通过发行政府债券形式举债权力，此后地方政 府债券发行规模总体呈现波动向上趋势。 根据财政部公开数据，由于当时中国实施地方政府债券置换存量政府债务中非政府债券形式的债务计 划，2015年地方政府债券发行规模首次超过3万亿元（3.8万亿元），2016年飙升至6万亿元，此后三年 稳定在4万多亿元。而为了应对疫情冲击，扩大有效投资提振经济，2020年地方政府债券发行规模再次 突破6万亿元，2021年首次突破7万亿元；为了置换存量隐性债务，2023年和2024年地方政府债券发行规 模均超过9万亿元，其中2024年约9.8万亿元，逼近10万亿元。 2025年为了稳投资和继续置换地方政府隐性债务，地方政府债券发行规模首次突破了10万亿元。 大量地方政府债券发行，也使得地方政府债务规模攀升。而随着近年来一揽子化债政策落地，地方政府 债务风险逐步收敛，风险总体安全可控。 根据财政部数据，截至2025年9月末，全国地方政府债务余额约53.7万亿元，这控制在债务限额之内 （57.9万亿元）。 根据数据平台机构企业预警通数据，截至12月2日，全国地方政府债券发行规模约为10.1万 ...

2025.12. 02 本文字数：1373，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 根据数据平台机构企业预警通数据，截至12月2日，全国地方政府债券发行规模约为10.1万亿元。 长期关注地方债的中央财经大学教授温来成告诉第一财经，地方政府债券发行规模首次突破10万亿 元具有里程碑式意义。总体来看，近些年地方政府债券发行规模增长较快，目前地方政府债务余额已 经超过50万亿元，但债务余额控制在限额之内，总体来说债务风险安全可控，但需要警惕债务过快 增长对中长期地方财政可持续性的挑战。 第一财经记者查阅中国人民银行及财政部发布的官方数据发现，这是年度地方政府债券发行规模历史 上首次突破10万亿元。 根据财政部数据，截至2025年9月末，全国地方政府债务余额约53.7万亿元，这控制在债务限额之内 （57.9万亿元）。 此前财政部公开表示，目前从国际比较来看，中国政府负债率（2024年底为68.7%）显著低于主要 经济体和新兴市场国家。从举债用途看，我国地方政府债务形成了大量有效资产。我国地方政府债务 主要用于资本性支出，支持建设了一大批交通、水利、能源等项目，很多资产正在产生持续性收益， 既为经济高质量发展提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shifted towards fundamentals, with persistent weak demand. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust mainly [1][5]. - Macroeconomically, during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to implement a package of debt - resolution plans, establish a long - term regulatory system for local government debt, and reform local financing platforms to optimize the debt structure [1][4][9]. - Fundamentally, last week's industrial data was weak. The output of the five major steel products decreased month - on - month, apparent demand declined, and inventory decreased but the decline rate shrank. Specifically, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly month - on - month, increasing off - season pressure; the hot - rolled coil inventory rebounded, and supply pressure remained [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3034 | -72 | -2.32 | 5791624 | 2824366 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3245 | -63 | -1.90 | 2193217 | 1365348 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 760.5 | -39.5 | -4.94 | 1655900 | 537495 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1270.0 | -16.0 | -1.24 | 5683778 | 984216 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1756.5 | -20.5 | -1.15 | 108828 | 49120 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Steel futures fluctuated and declined last week. Fundamentally, steel output and apparent demand both decreased, putting pressure on the spot market and causing the futures price to fall. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (-40) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3190 (-40) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3260 (-70) yuan/ton [4]. - Macroeconomically, during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, a series of debt - management measures will be implemented [4]. - Industrially, last week, rebar output was 2090000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40000 tons; apparent demand was 2190000 tons, a decrease of 140000 tons; factory inventory was 1670000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; social inventory was 4260000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; total inventory was 5930000 tons, a decrease of 100000 tons. Hot - rolled coil output was 3180000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; factory inventory was 770000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons; social inventory was 3330000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; total inventory was 4100000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; apparent demand was 3140000 tons, a decrease of 180000 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will implement debt - management measures for local governments [1][4][9]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as this week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to promote healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China - US relations [9]. - The global manufacturing PMI in October announced by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on November 6 was the same as last month, indicating a slow recovery of the global economy [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, factory and social inventories, output, apparent consumption, etc. over different time periods from 2021 to 2025 [8][10][12][14][16][18][21][22][24][27][29][32][34][35][37]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Bullish and volatile [1] - Alumina: Supported at the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Bullish and volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, premiums, processing fees, and corporate profits and losses [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 21,600 yuan, up 300 yuan from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,909 US dollars, up 21 US dollars [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,789 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,065 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 614,000 tons, up 9,000 tons from the previous trading day; the aluminum ingot import loss was -2,331.90 yuan [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: The domestic average alumina price was 2,900 yuan, down 6 yuan from the previous trading day; the alumina import price in Lianyungang was 342 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -25 yuan; the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,900 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Other Data - **Policy News**: The Minister of Finance, Lan Foan, stated that not adding new implicit debts will be regarded as an "iron - clad discipline" and will promote the establishment of a unified long - term regulatory system for local government debts [3]. - **US Employment Market**: As of September, the number of corporate layoffs in the US was nearly 950,000, the highest since 2020 [3]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; alumina trend intensity is 0; aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Bullish sideways trend [1] - Alumina: Supported at the lower level [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Bullish sideways trend [1] Core Views of the Report - The report provides an update on the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market and spot market information [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum and aluminum alloy are rated as 1 (bullish), while that of alumina is 0 (neutral) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 yuan, up 300 yuan from T - 1. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,909 US dollars, up 21 US dollars from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased compared to T - 1 [1]. - The LME注销仓单占比 was 8.59%, down 0.57% from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,789 yuan, down 4 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased, while the open interest increased compared to T - 1 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,065 yuan, up 260 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The trading volume and open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract increased compared to T - 1 [1]. Spot Market Aluminum - The pre - baked anode market price was 5,887 yuan, up 222 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,303.36 yuan, up 66.42 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 61.40 tons, up 0.90 tons from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The domestic average alumina price was 2,900 yuan, down 6 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 342 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 25 yuan, down 36 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,900 yuan, up 100 yuan from T - 1 [1]. Other Information - The Chinese finance minister stated that no new implicit debts would be added, and efforts would be made to implement the debt - resolution package and reform local financing platforms [3]. - The US job market showed signs of cooling, with the number of corporate lay - offs reaching a new high since 2020 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of data as a key element in government debt management is essential for enhancing efficiency and enabling economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Current Challenges in Debt Management - Fragmentation of information creates "data barriers" that hinder effective local government debt management, making it difficult to share critical information across various sectors [1]. - Key metrics such as debt scale, fund flow, project returns, and repayment capacity are not integrated, leading to challenges in precise policy implementation and risk prevention [1]. Group 2: Solutions Through Data Integration - Data integration allows for a more accurate assessment of local debt, moving beyond traditional reliance on macroeconomic indicators like GDP and fiscal revenue [2]. - The establishment of a debt big data supervision system by the Ministry of Finance in Anhui serves as a model, integrating core indicators to create a dynamic government debt analysis model [2]. Group 3: Proactive Risk Management - Data-driven risk warning mechanisms enable proactive risk management, allowing for early detection and response to potential debt risks [2][3]. - For instance, the city of Yingde in Guangdong utilizes a local government debt management system to regularly assess key indicators and issue timely risk alerts [3]. Group 4: Addressing Structural Mismatches - Structural mismatches between funding supply and actual project needs are a core pain point in local debt management [3]. - By utilizing data to connect the entire chain from funding supply to project outcomes, local governments can ensure that funds are directed towards projects that generate returns and have repayment capacity [3]. Group 5: Future Directions for Data Utilization - To fully leverage data in debt management, it is crucial to break down departmental "data silos" and ensure secure data circulation [4]. - Investments in data centers, computing networks, and security infrastructure, along with improved data governance rules, are necessary to facilitate effective data sharing [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the accelerated progress of local financing platforms in China towards achieving "hidden debt clearance" as part of a broader effort to manage and mitigate local government debt risks. Group 1: Progress in Debt Clearance - Since September, various regions have reported significant advancements in the clearance of hidden debts, with some areas aiming to achieve complete clearance by the end of the year [3][4][5] - As of September 10, 82 districts and counties have successfully reached the goal of hidden debt clearance, indicating a notable acceleration in the overall progress [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance reported that over 60% of financing platforms have exited, reflecting a rapid transformation towards market-oriented operations [9][10] Group 2: Government Initiatives and Policies - The State Council emphasized the need to establish a long-term mechanism for preventing and resolving local government debt risks, including the reform of financing platforms [5][6] - Local governments are actively implementing measures to prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts while ensuring compliance with national financial support policies [3][4] - Various provinces, such as Hunan and Jiangxi, have outlined specific plans to accelerate the exit of financing platforms and manage debt risks effectively [10][11] Group 3: Financial Institutions' Role - Financial institutions, particularly banks, are playing a crucial role in supporting local platforms to reduce costs and mitigate risks, thereby enhancing the credit quality and repayment capabilities of these platforms [12][13] - The Agricultural Bank of China has committed to supporting the clearance of hidden debts while ensuring compliance with market-oriented principles [13] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that as debt pressures decrease, local governments will have more policy space and financial capacity to focus on developing manufacturing and service sectors, facilitating smoother implementation of future economic plans [13]

Core Insights - The process of clearing local government hidden debts is accelerating, with many regions aiming to achieve "zero hidden debt" by the end of the year [1][2][3] - A total of 82 districts and counties across the country have already achieved the goal of clearing hidden debts [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance reported that over 60% of financing platforms have exited, indicating significant progress in the reform and transformation of these platforms [6] Group 1: Local Government Actions - Hangzhou's finance bureau reported high-quality implementation of debt reduction policies, aiming for complete clearance of financing platform debts by year-end [1] - Jinhua City emphasized the need to prevent new hidden debts while ensuring the completion of this year's debt reduction tasks [2] - Various regions, including Longyan and Xinjiang, have reported successful completion of hidden debt clearance ahead of schedule [4][5] Group 2: National Policy and Oversight - The State Council's report highlighted the need for a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve local government debt risks [3] - The Ministry of Finance has mandated that local governments complete the clearance of hidden debts by the end of 2028, with expectations of sufficient debt reduction funds available [3][10] - Financial institutions are actively supporting local platforms in reducing costs and managing risks, which has improved asset quality and reduced risks [8][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that after significant debt pressure is alleviated, local governments will have more policy space and financial strength to focus on developing manufacturing and service industries [10] - The ongoing transformation of financing platforms is expected to lead to successful market-oriented operations, enhancing their cash flow and creditworthiness [6][10]