中央部委加快推进盘活存量闲置用地，将带来更多强确定性的投资机会 ◎ 文 / 马千里 2025年9月，土地成交规模迎来季节性环比回升，同比也实现止跌。据月末快报数据，9月土地成交建筑 面积和金额分别环比上升50%和86%，同比来看成交建面、金额均同比微增2%。供地节奏也有所加快， 截至25日本月供应土地建筑面积8363万平方米，环比上月增加27%。在土地供求规模环比增加的同时， 而土拍热度仍集中在上海、杭州、成都的少数优质板块，因此溢价率进一步回落。月内国务院批复了部 分地区要素市场化配置的试点方案，鼓励采取市场化方式盘活存量闲置土地，自然资源部也审议通过了 新的行业标准文件，填补存量空间规划编制技术标准空白，进一步推进城市存量空间盘活优化。预计年 内启动的闲置土地收储工作将在四季度进一步加快落实，并为房地产行业带来更多优质土地供应，兼顾 行业库存结构调整和稳定需求规模。 核心要点 供求：环比季节性回升，成交同比止跌。 本月供应建筑面积8363万平方米，环比增加27%，同比 下降8.5%。成交6592万平方米，环比增加50%，同比增加2%。 热度：年内新低。 9月平均溢价率为3.2%，环比回落1.5个百分点。这 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, while the second-hand housing transaction area has shown a year-on-year increase [4][6] - The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with potential for slight fluctuations in housing prices during this process [4][6] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the need for state-owned enterprises to adapt to new urban development stages and implement urban renewal actions [5][14] Summary by Sections Sales Sector - In the 37th week of 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in 68 major cities was 1.72 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a month-on-month decrease of 1% [6][32] - Cumulatively, from the beginning of the year, the transaction area in these cities reached 84.08 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% [6][32] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in 20 cities was 1.85 million square meters, showing a year-on-year growth of 2% [32] Investment Sector - In the 37th week of 2025, the planned land area launched in 100 major cities was 31.01 million square meters, with a transaction area of 20 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15% [38] - The transaction premium rate was 4.4%, with first-tier cities seeing a 71% increase in planned land area transactions year-on-year [38] Financing Sector - In the 37th week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 4.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34% and a month-on-month decrease of 44% [45] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds was 288.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [45] Market Performance - The real estate index increased by 5.98% in the week of September 8-12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.38% [51][53] - The real estate sector ranked second among 28 sectors in terms of performance during this period [51]

Group 1 - The State Council of China has approved a pilot program for comprehensive reform of factor market-oriented allocation in ten regions, including major urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, to enhance economic growth and innovation [1][2] - The pilot program aims to improve the efficiency of factor allocation by focusing on various aspects such as stimulating technological innovation, optimizing land resource allocation, facilitating the flow of human resources, and developing a data factor market [1][2] - The pilot program is set to be implemented for two years, with an expected completion date in 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Natural Resources emphasizes the importance of land as a production factor and aims to deepen the market-oriented allocation of land resources through the pilot program [2] - Key areas of exploration in the pilot program include reforming land management systems, innovating industrial land supply, and revitalizing idle and inefficient land [2][3] - The Ministry plans to guide pilot regions in exploring and promoting efficient land allocation and utilization to support the construction of a high-level socialist market economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council of China has approved a pilot program for the market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, aiming to enhance economic growth and resource efficiency over the next two years [1] Group 1: Pilot Program Details - The pilot program will be implemented in ten regions, including Beijing's urban sub-center, key cities in southern Jiangsu, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, among others [1] - The program focuses on stimulating technological innovation, promoting efficient land allocation, guiding human resource mobility, and enhancing the capital factor's service to the real economy [1][2] Group 2: Land Management Reforms - The pilot will grant greater autonomy in land resource management to participating regions, allowing them to match new construction land with population trends [2] - Innovations in industrial land supply will include long-term leasing, flexible supply periods, and support for the conversion of different types of industrial land [2] Group 3: Revitalizing Idle Land - The program aims to activate idle and inefficient land through defined standards and encourage the redevelopment of low-efficiency urban land [2][3] - As of August, 26 provinces have announced plans to use special bonds to acquire idle land, with a total amount exceeding 610 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Future Directions - The Ministry of Natural Resources will guide pilot regions to explore and promote the orderly flow and efficient allocation of land factors, supporting the establishment of a high-level socialist market economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Natural Resources will guide pilot regions in the market-oriented allocation of resources, focusing on the orderly flow and efficient allocation of land resources [1] Group 1 - The Ministry will explore and promote the revitalization of traditional and inefficient land redevelopment [1] - There will be a refinement of standards for identifying inefficient land, aimed at promoting the withdrawal and redevelopment of urban inefficient land [1] - The Ministry encourages the revitalization of idle state-owned land through market-oriented methods to enhance land conservation and intensive utilization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Natural Resources is promoting the market-oriented allocation of land resources and aims to enhance the efficient use of land through various reforms and initiatives [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry will guide pilot regions in the comprehensive reform of market-oriented resource allocation, tailored to local conditions [1] - There will be a focus on revitalizing traditional land and redeveloping inefficient land, with specific standards for identifying low-efficiency land being refined [1] Group 2: Land Utilization Strategies - The Ministry plans to promote the withdrawal and active exit of urban low-efficiency land, as well as the revitalization of state-owned enterprises' idle land [1] - Encouragement will be given to market-oriented methods for activating idle land, aiming to improve the level of land conservation and intensive use [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China has disposed of over 5 million acres of idle land, with a focus on optimizing land use and promoting the redevelopment of inefficient land [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has approved a total of 26.974 million acres of construction land during the "14th Five-Year Plan," while the area of construction land used per unit of GDP has decreased by 16% [1] - The shift in industrial land policy from primarily "transfer" to a balance of "rental and transfer" aims to reduce land costs for enterprises and address challenges in land availability for emerging industries such as elderly care and healthcare [1] Group 2 - As an important method to enhance land use efficiency, comprehensive land remediation has been actively promoted in regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang, with over 10 million acres of remediation completed nationwide [2]

Core Viewpoint - The pace of using special bonds to acquire idle land has significantly accelerated across various regions since the second quarter of this year, with nearly 3,000 parcels of land totaling over 1.33 billion square meters and exceeding 350 billion yuan in total amount being publicly announced for acquisition [2][3]. Special Bonds and Idle Land Acquisition - The revival of special bonds for land acquisition was proposed in the second half of 2024, with the Politburo meeting in September emphasizing support for revitalizing idle land and the State Council mentioning the allowance of special bonds for land reserves in October [2]. - The reissuance of land reserve special bonds comes after a five-year hiatus since 2019, driven by specific challenges in the real estate sector, including a significant amount of idle land due to the dual downturn in the housing and land markets [2][3]. Government Actions and Statistics - As of May 20, 2023, 23 provinces and cities have announced plans to recover land, with Guangdong leading with a proposed total amount exceeding 650 billion yuan [3][4]. - The number of publicly announced land parcels has increased significantly, with over 1,500 parcels announced in April alone, surpassing the cumulative total from the first three months of the year [3][4]. Land Parcel Characteristics - The majority of the land parcels targeted for acquisition were sold between 2020 and 2024, with residential land accounting for approximately 65% and commercial land for about 25% of the total [4]. - Over 80% of the land parcels belong to local state-owned enterprises, while central and private enterprises account for less than 20% [5]. Market Implications - The theoretical building area of the proposed residential land acquisition exceeds 1.3 billion square meters, which could potentially reduce new housing supply and lower inventory cycles in lower-tier cities if successfully implemented [7]. - However, the actual issuance of special bonds for land acquisition remains low, with only about 15% of the proposed total amount being issued as of May 20, indicating a need for acceleration in the bond issuance process [8]. Recommendations for Improvement - It is suggested that local authorities expedite the conversion of proposed land acquisitions into actual acquisitions and refine the data on land ownership, regional distribution, and development progress to enhance the precision and operability of policies [8].

以下文章来源于申万宏源固收研究 ，作者黄伟平 张晋源 申万宏源固收研究 . 申万宏源证券研究所债券研究部 【申万宏源债券】黄伟平 张晋源 摘要 1）2001-2015年，土储贷款是土地储备的主要来源；2） 2015年以来，地方政府债务管控规范化背景下，土储贷款被叫停；3）2017年土储专项债正式启 动，2017年-2019年间密集发行，成为土储资金的重要来源；2019年9月-2024年10月，土储专项债被叫停发行；4）2024年9月，房地产承压、城投托底压 力上升背景下，2024年10月12日国新办新闻发布会提及"允许专项债券用于土地储备"，土储专项债正式重启。 2024年10月12日，国新办发布会提及"允许专项债券用于土地储备"，土储专项债自2019年9月国常会被叫停以来，时隔五年重启发行。土储专项债缘何 被叫停，又为何重启，土地市场下行背景下能带来怎样的增量支持，本文尝试分析： 2001年我国土储制度正式确立以来，土储资金来源经历了几轮变革： 本轮土地储备专项债的核心特征： 1）收储对象与之前的土储专项债有明显区别： 主要包括 "企业无力或无意愿继续开发、已供应未动工的房地产用地，以及其他符合收回收购条件 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of land reserve special bonds is expected to provide financial support for local governments to acquire and recycle land, improve the financial situation of real - estate enterprises, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market from the land side [72]. - More regions are expected to follow the practices of provinces that have issued special bonds, and the issuance speed of land reserve special bonds is likely to accelerate. However, the policy effects need further observation due to issues such as mortgage - debt relationships and acquisition pricing [3][72]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Local Government Special Bond Investment Areas Have Expanded - Local government bonds are classified into general bonds and special bonds based on repayment sources. In 2024, local government special bonds totaled 7.7 trillion yuan in issuance, with 4.0 trillion yuan in new special bonds and 3.7 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds. By the end of 2024, the balance of special bonds was 30.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 65% of local government debt [12]. - The investment areas of special bonds have expanded. In 2025, four new investment areas were added, including supporting the acquisition of existing commercial housing, revitalizing idle land, developing infrastructure for emerging strategic industries, and renovating old urban areas [15]. - From 2019 - 2024, the areas with relatively high investment of new special bonds were municipal and industrial park infrastructure, shantytown renovation, and healthcare, with scale proportions of 27.4%, 13.4%, and 7.2% respectively [15]. 3.2 Historical Review of Land Reserve Special Bonds - Before 2016, land reserve institutions could borrow land reserve loans from banks. In 2016, borrowing land reserve loans from banks was suspended, and land reserve funds were raised through channels such as local government special bonds, state - owned land revenue funds, and land transfer revenues [24][26]. - Land reserve special bonds were officially launched in 2017 and suspended in September 2019. From July 2017 to September 2019, a total of 426 land reserve special bonds were issued, with a total amount of 1491.4 billion yuan [30][31]. 3.3 Relevant Policies and Background for the New Round of Resuming Land Reserve Special Bonds - Since 2024, central meetings have introduced policies to support the revitalization of idle land. In October 2024, the Ministry of Finance allowed special bonds to be used for land reserve [35]. - In November 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice providing specific guidance on using special bond funds to acquire idle land, aiming to reduce the scale of idle land, improve the land supply - demand relationship, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [36]. - In March 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a new regulation on land reserve special bonds, clarifying requirements for bond issuance and fund use [37]. 3.4 Progress of Local Plans to Use Special Bonds to Acquire Idle Land - As of April 10, according to incomplete statistics from the China Index Academy, 848 parcels of idle land were planned to be acquired with special bonds, with a total area of over 40 million square meters and a total amount of 128.2 billion yuan. The pace of announcements has accelerated since March [46]. - Fourteen out of 31 provinces and municipalities have announced plans to use special bonds to acquire idle land. Guangdong Province leads with a planned acquisition amount close to 50 billion yuan [47]. - Among the announced parcels, residential land accounts for 63.5%, commercial and office land for 25.8%, and industrial land for 7.3%. Most of the acquired land was transferred between 2020 - 2024 [52]. 3.5 Issuance of Land Reserve Special Bonds for Acquiring Idle Land - As of April 10, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Hunan have issued special bonds for acquiring idle land, with a total amount of approximately 40.2 billion yuan, covering 166 projects [3][54]. - Since February, Beijing has issued special bonds involving 25 land reserve projects, with a total issuance of 11.687 billion yuan, mainly for primary land development [60]. - In March, Sichuan issued special bonds involving 3 land reserve projects, with 330 million yuan used to acquire 2 parcels of idle land in Chengdu and Yibin [68]. - In April, Hunan issued land reserve special bonds worth 9.415 billion yuan, accounting for 41.5% of the provincial special bond funds for project construction [71]. 3.6 Investment Suggestions - The resumption of land reserve special bonds can support local governments in land acquisition and recycling, improve the financial situation of real - estate enterprises, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [72]. - More regions are expected to follow the practices of provinces that have issued special bonds, and the issuance speed of land reserve special bonds is likely to accelerate. However, the policy effects need further observation, and it is recommended to pay attention to relevant local state - owned enterprises and developers [3][72].