Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "long" [2] 2. Core View - The weekend US attack on Venezuela has escalated geopolitical conflict risks, but its direct impact on methanol is limited. Last week, both ports and inland areas saw inventory accumulation. After mid - January, the expected decrease in imported arrivals and the restart plan of olefin plants mean methanol faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2180 - 2300. It is recommended to wait and see on long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 47 yuan to 2271 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China fell by 30 yuan to 2220 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 18,586 hands to 452,000 hands, and short positions increased by 42,410 hands to 572,000 hands [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 6,490 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 25,100 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.61% [2] - **Demand**: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 78,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,400 tons. The orders of sample enterprises to be shipped are 183,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 88.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, unchanged from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the acetic acid operating rate is 77.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [2] - **Import**: In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. Among them, the imports from Saudi Arabia were the largest at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - **Geopolitical Event**: On January 3, local time, US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. The same day, a US official said that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by members of the US military's highest special mission force, the Delta Force, in the early morning of January 3 [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical conflict has a limited direct impact on methanol. With inventory accumulation last week, the expected decrease in imports after mid - January and the olefin plant restart plan, methanol has a situation of weak current situation but strong future expectations. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2180 - 2300 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Wait and see on long positions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market's low opening and subsequent recovery reflect investors' relatively optimistic expectations, indicating significant market resilience [1] Market Performance - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened significantly lower but reached its lowest point at the opening price, followed by a steady recovery, closing slightly below the five-day moving average [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index also opened lower and recovered, but with less strength than the Shanghai index, closing below the ten-day moving average, suggesting a short-term digestion of previous excess gains [1] Market Trends - The market's focus on the upstream resource sector indicates a shift in investment style, with small and mid-cap stocks showing slight excess returns and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board performing independently [1] - Since the end of August, the Shanghai Composite Index has entered a horizontal consolidation phase, facing resistance above and support below, with the adjustment low remaining above the 2021 market high, indicating that previous resistance levels have become significant support [1] Recent Market Activity - After the holiday, the market attempted to break upward but faced negative information, leading to two consecutive days of adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index still closing at the upper edge of the September horizontal consolidation, indicating a strong pullback confirmation phase [1]

Group 1 - The September market is influenced by the upcoming long holiday and seasonal adjustments in investor positions, leading to decreased trading activity [1] - Post-holiday market focus will shift to domestic economic trends, particularly on demand-side policies and supply-side "de-involution" efforts, which are crucial for PPI recovery and corporate profit growth [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded, closing above short-term moving averages, while the Shenzhen Component continues to lead the market with increased trading volume of approximately 2.1 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The market is currently undergoing technical consolidation after a continuous upward trend, with some sector indices still showing upward momentum, indicating structural investment opportunities [2] - There are signs of profit-taking since late August, suggesting a divergence in short-term market sentiment, but the overall adjustment remains strong [2]

Group 1 - France is the most assertive country in the EU regarding the trade war initiated by Trump, with Macron firmly opposing any compromises with the US [1] - The French aerospace company Airbus faces export restrictions due to US tariffs, while French agricultural products, particularly wine, are experiencing a significant decline in market share in the US [1] - The wine industry in France is particularly affected, with a sharp decrease in export volumes leading to a sales crisis for many vineyards and a substantial drop in income for farmers and related workers [1] Group 2 - Macron's strong stance against the US tariffs has provided a clear direction for the EU, potentially uniting member states to defend EU interests and avoid hasty compromises [3] - However, this hardline approach has intensified divisions within the EU, as countries like Germany, which have strong economic ties to the US, may be more inclined to make concessions [3] - Despite these divisions, there remains a significant opposition within the EU against the US tariffs, which is viewed positively [3] Group 3 - Recently, France's Finance Minister emphasized the need to reassess trade rules and strengthen barriers specifically against China, indicating a potential shift in strategy [5] - This shift could lead to France pressuring China to gain concessions from the US, making a trade agreement more likely if France meets certain US demands [5] - France's actions may create significant geopolitical risks in its relationship with China, as it seeks to assert its value in US-EU relations [7] Group 4 - French companies, particularly in the wine, cosmetics, and luxury goods sectors, are concerned about the potential impact of increased tariffs on exports to China, which could severely affect revenues [9] - The implementation of such policies may disrupt the cooperative atmosphere between China and the EU, affecting the overall direction of EU-China relations and eroding mutual trust [9] - If the French government chooses to escalate threats against China to maintain domestic support, it must consider the potential costs of losing benefits due to possible Chinese retaliatory measures [9]

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