↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 国内还处在国庆假期，海外市场也迎来周末。但是近期海外大事不断，美国政府关门，日本极右翼政客高市早苗当选日本首相， 中国资产全线走 强 ... 现在大家可以通过QDII基金可以很方便地布局海外市场，这些大事将如何影响对应资产？A股节后又将如何演绎？ 01 美国政府关门危机持续 众议院共和党领导层在周六的电话会议中告知成员，他们计划在政府关门期间远离华盛顿。这标志着共和党策略的进一步升级，参议院短期内达成 协议的前景依然黯淡。众议院民主党领袖Hakeem Jeffries表示："这届政府试图霸凌我们，我们不会被霸凌，众议院、参议院的民主党人团结一 致，认为这个问题必须得到解决。" 数据空白对经济决策造成的挑战尤为严峻。 Indeed网站经济学家Allison Shrivastava表示， 表示：" 我们正处于经济变化的时期，这使得数据比 平常时期更有价值 。"这也导致企业和政策制定者将不得不在缺乏准确数据的情况下对经济走向做出最佳猜测。 在政府关门的阴影之下，市场本身也正在经历一场内部调整。美联储主席鲍威尔近期将美股形容为"估值相当高"，引发了投资者对高估值板块的 警惕。一些 ...

Core Insights - The head of the National Taxation Administration, Hu Jinglin, reported that as of the end of June this year, the number of tax-related business entities in China has exceeded 100 million, marking an increase of 30 million since the end of 2020, indicating strong market vitality and resilience [1] Group 1 - The total number of tax-related business entities in China has surpassed 100 million [1] - There has been a net increase of 30 million business entities since the end of 2020 [1] - This growth reflects the strong vitality and resilience of the Chinese market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai second-hand housing market is experiencing stable transaction volumes but declining prices, with a notable drop in the price index for three consecutive months [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, Shanghai's second-hand residential transactions reached 16,900 units, showing better performance compared to the same period in 2023, attributed to new policies stimulating trading growth [1]. - The price index for second-hand homes fell by 1.82% month-on-month in July, continuing a downward trend [1]. - Despite the price decline, the absolute transaction volume remained above 15,000 units, indicating market resilience [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Only five districts in Shanghai saw an increase in second-hand home listing prices in July, with Changning District rising by 3.4% and Songjiang District by 2% [2]. - Central districts like Jing'an, Hongkou, and Xuhui experienced varying degrees of price declines, highlighting ongoing regional and product differentiation [2]. - The overall second-hand home prices are at their lowest since 2015, with some properties nearing prices from 2016 [2][3]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior - The market demand is primarily driven by first-time homebuyers and young families, particularly for properties priced below 3 million yuan, showing a preference for suburban areas with better value [1]. - Buyers are increasingly practical, opting to trade older homes for newer ones, often sacrificing location for larger living spaces within budget constraints [3]. - The price drop for older properties, such as those in the Hongkou District, has exceeded 30% compared to three years ago, with current listing prices allowing for further negotiation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of CME Group stated that the market has demonstrated significant resilience amid policy changes [1] Group 1 - The market's ability to adapt to changing policies indicates a strong underlying strength [1] - CME Group's leadership emphasizes the importance of monitoring market reactions to policy shifts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite rising recession risks, the U.S. stock market remains in a bull market, entering its third year, and the upward trend may not slow down soon [1][3] - Joe Fahmy, a portfolio manager at Zor Capital, believes that the current bull market could extend for "years" due to the AI boom, which is seen as a revolutionary innovation that enhances productivity [3] - Historical patterns indicate that bull markets are often driven by groundbreaking inventions and innovations, with AI being the latest catalyst for the current market surge [3][4] Group 2 - Fahmy notes that despite recent market volatility due to factors like changing tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, the U.S. market remains resilient, as many institutions are currently under-invested [3] - The market's ability to maintain support levels during adverse news, such as the recent Middle East crisis, exemplifies its strength [4] - Fahmy emphasizes that market trends often last longer than expected, suggesting that when it seems the market cannot rise further, it often does, and similarly for declines [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of capital markets despite significant volatility, highlighting the importance of price discovery in a fluctuating environment [1] - The UK financial system is undergoing extensive reforms to maintain its status as a leading global financial center, including significant changes to listing mechanisms to enhance competitiveness for companies from Hong Kong and the UK [1] - The development of both public and private markets is crucial for providing companies with diverse financing channels, reflecting a commitment to continuous improvement in the financial infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The UK is recognized for having one of the largest pension systems globally, with ongoing investments in financial infrastructure and technology aimed at enhancing productivity and economic growth [2] - The emphasis on internationalization is evident, with the UK being home to one of the largest offshore markets outside of Hong Kong, reinforcing its position in the global financial landscape [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) is adopting a strategy of "one shield and three arrows" to navigate the challenges and opportunities arising from global changes, including geopolitical complexities and US-China competition [1][3]. Group 1: Market Resilience - The SFC emphasizes the importance of a resilient market in the face of capital market volatility, which has become the new norm [3]. - The recent increase in US tariffs led to significant market declines, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing its largest single-day drop in nearly 30 years, yet the Hong Kong market demonstrated resilience through effective regulatory frameworks and risk management measures [4]. - The SFC has been closely monitoring market conditions and conducting stress tests on exchanges and intermediaries to assess risk management capabilities [4]. Group 2: Seizing Opportunities - Hong Kong is positioned as the third-largest international financial center, relying on proactive strategies to capitalize on emerging opportunities [6]. - In May, international funds significantly flowed back into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential restructuring of global asset allocation [7]. Group 3: Three Arrows Strategy - The first arrow focuses on enhancing Hong Kong's core competitiveness as a top financing and wealth management center, with recent H-share listings, such as CATL, raising a record $5.3 billion [8]. - The second arrow aims to deepen connections between Hong Kong and both emerging and mature markets, expanding the scope of mutual access to include funds, ETFs, and derivatives [9]. - The third arrow emphasizes innovation through technology, including digitalization, blockchain, and generative AI, to maintain long-term competitiveness [11].

Group 1 - The market experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday but managed to recover on Wednesday, indicating strong resilience despite concerns over external negative news [1] - The index showed hesitation in breaking through the 3400-point level, leading to continued consolidation and a lack of sustained trading volume, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw upward movement driven by positive news expectations, while previously leading sectors like bioproducts, communication services, and port shipping experienced pullbacks, indicating a "short and quick" rotation of market hotspots [1] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests continued mild consolidation, with attention on upcoming monthly macroeconomic data and trading volume changes [1] - According to technical analysis principles, a sustained increase in trading volume is necessary for the market to choose a direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - In May, the Shanghai real estate market showed a year-on-year growth of 14.5%, marking the eighth consecutive month of surpassing the transaction volume threshold, influenced by policies such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and lower public housing fund interest rates [1][4]. Market Performance - The total transaction volume in May was 21,400 units, although it experienced a decline of approximately 2,000 units compared to April due to the impact of holidays [1][5]. - The transaction volume in May was the second highest in the past five years, only behind 2021, indicating market resilience despite the traditional peak season having passed [4]. Market Dynamics - There was a noticeable decrease in the number of listings in the second-hand housing market, with both buyer and seller decision-making becoming more cautious due to market and policy uncertainties [5]. - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in May decreased by 0.09% compared to April, with some sellers adopting a "price for volume" strategy [7]. Buyer Behavior - The demand for "just-needed" housing has increased significantly, particularly in the 70-90㎡ and 90-120㎡ categories, which saw a month-on-month growth of 5.79% and 3.96%, respectively [8]. - The structure of transaction prices shifted, with a decrease in the proportion of properties priced between 8 million to 15 million, while the share of properties below 2.3 million and between 4.5 million to 8 million increased significantly [10]. Overall Market Condition - The Shanghai real estate market from January to May has maintained a stable volume and price, with May's second-hand housing market experiencing a slight pullback but remaining above the 20,000 unit threshold, showing significant improvement compared to last year [12].

Core Insights - In May, Shenzhen recorded a total of 5,727 second-hand housing registrations, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [1] - The strong registration volume in May, exceeding 5,000 units, indicates good market resilience despite being a traditionally slow season [1] - As of June 2, the number of effective second-hand housing listings in Shenzhen decreased to 71,791 units, down by 600 units from the same period last month [1]