证券研究报告 AI交易切换：重视国产算力和电力建设 ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年3月1日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 目录 1、本周市场回顾 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 3、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 1. 本周市场回顾 注：本周交易日为2月24日-27日 （如无特殊说明）后文同 ✓ 本周全A日均成交2.44万亿，环比节前一周放量超3000亿 图：万 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the Central Economic Work Conference is to expand domestic circulation, similar to last year, but with significant differences in expectations and pricing for domestic and foreign demand stocks [10][11] - There is a strong performance expectation for overseas exposure stocks, but the difficulty in valuation increases, while domestic demand stocks have potential for valuation recovery if they exceed expectations [10][11] - The market is expected to see a short-term positive trend following the conference, with historical data indicating that the market style tends to perform well in the week following the conference [12] Group 2 - The spring market is anticipated to be a small-scale rally, with a focus on short-term price-performance opportunities in technology and cyclical sectors [13][14] - Key themes from the conference include commercial aerospace, robotics, and other sectors related to the ocean economy and energy security [13][14] - The investment strategy should focus on sectors benefiting from supply-side reforms and consumer demand stimulation, particularly in services and non-durable goods [13][14] Group 3 - The market is characterized by volatility, with a recommendation to adopt a cautious approach and wait for better entry points [16][17] - Specific sectors to watch include brokerage firms, home appliances, and mechanical equipment, with a focus on stocks that are currently undervalued [16][17] - The policy environment is expected to support structural adjustments and "anti-involution" measures, creating opportunities in social services and resource sectors [16][17] Group 4 - The investment outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics, with continued monetary easing expected [18] - Key narratives for the future include AI technology, safety, and industry expansion, which are anticipated to provide medium to long-term investment certainty [18] - Asset allocation strategies should focus on passive investments for risk diversification and active management for capitalizing on market trends [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a self-reliant approach in technology and security, focusing on deepening reforms to enhance internal growth resilience [1][3] - The industry configuration for 2026 will revolve around two main lines: technology and security, and reform and growth [1][4] Group 2 - In the technology and security sector, there is a focus on AI capabilities, resource and energy security, and the development of cutting-edge industries [1][4] - The AI industry is expected to benefit from domestic computing power and chip manufacturing, with attention on AI power infrastructure, new AI glasses, humanoid robots, and B2B AI applications [1][4] - Resource and energy security will involve the reassessment of strategic resources and the establishment of a new energy system, with a focus on metals like copper, aluminum, and tin, as well as new energy developments such as solid-state batteries and nuclear energy [1][4] Group 3 - The reform and growth aspect will address supply-side anti-involution and demand-side consumption promotion, with a shift from trading policy expectations to pricing recovery points [1][4] - Key areas of interest include the electrolyte, positive and negative electrodes, membranes, and the photovoltaic industry chain, as well as improvements in the chemical, steel, and thermal coal sectors due to capacity reduction [1][4] - There will be an increased emphasis on service and non-durable goods consumption, particularly in travel, aviation, hotels, duty-free shopping, and essential consumer goods like frozen foods and health products [1][4]

Overall Analysis - The overall performance of A-shares in Q3 2025 shows a significant improvement in profitability, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.55% in net profit attributable to shareholders, a substantial increase compared to Q2 2025 [1][11] - The cumulative net profit growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 5.55%, indicating a recovery in profitability driven by active trading in the A-share market and notable improvements in non-banking sectors [1][10] Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest year-on-year net profit growth in Q3 2025 include steel (+202.9%), defense industry (+73.2%), non-bank financials (+64.9%), media (+57.2%), and non-ferrous metals (+50.9%), primarily concentrated in anti-involution and high-prosperity TMT sectors [3][4] - The recovery in profitability is particularly evident in upstream and midstream sectors, while downstream consumption remains under pressure [3][4] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for A-shares (excluding financials and petrochemicals) rebounded slightly to 6.31% in Q3 2025, although it remains at a low level, necessitating further observation for upward elasticity [2][25] - The main drivers for the ROE rebound include improvements in net profit margin and stabilization of asset turnover, with a slight decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio [2][25] Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow as a percentage of revenue in Q3 2025 is at a relatively low level compared to the past decade, with operating cash flow showing improvement year-on-year [2][3] - The financing cash flow has also increased year-on-year, indicating some debt repayment pressure on enterprises [2][3] Sector Performance - The growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders in various sectors show that the innovation and entrepreneurship sector has significantly improved, while the growth style continues to lead in profitability [2][21] - The main board, STAR Market, and ChiNext have shown stable performance, with the STAR Market achieving a remarkable year-on-year net profit growth of 65.40% in Q3 2025 [2][21]

Core Viewpoint - Significant capital is flowing into the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, which are perceived as undervalued despite the overall market stagnation [1][4] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The pig farming industry is currently facing substantial losses due to declining pork prices, which may lead to a significant industry reshuffle [1] - Recent government policies emphasize supply-side reforms, with major pig farming companies required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year [1] - Historical data indicates that the pig farming sector has experienced four cycles since 2006, and current prices are at a four-year low, suggesting limited downside potential [1][3] Group 2: Market Valuation - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are viewed as a "golden pit" for investment, with the agricultural ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.57, placing it in the 29.3 percentile of the last decade [4][5] - The current valuation levels are below historical averages, indicating a potential for significant upside as the industry recovers [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Long-term projections suggest that as the market clears and supply-side policies take effect, pork prices are expected to stabilize and eventually rise [3] - The correlation between pork prices and the stock prices of pig farming companies is strong, indicating that an increase in pork prices could lead to substantial profits for these companies [3] - Investment institutions express optimism about the agricultural sector's role in food security and economic development, highlighting opportunities in large-scale farming and emerging consumer trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term low price levels in China pose a significant challenge to the economy, necessitating both supply-side and demand-side measures to stimulate economic activity and improve price levels [2][5][12]. Supply-Side Measures - The government has implemented a series of "anti-involution" policies aimed at regulating local government behavior, enhancing industry self-discipline, and improving market order to combat excessive competition [9][10][11]. - Key actions include the release of guidelines to standardize local government practices, the promotion of industry standards, and the revision of laws to curb unfair competition and price manipulation [10][11]. - The focus is on optimizing production capacity and encouraging quality competition rather than merely reducing capacity, which is a shift from previous supply-side reforms [11][12]. Demand-Side Initiatives - There is a pressing need for further demand-side efforts to support price recovery, as the current supply-side measures alone may not suffice [12][13]. - Suggestions include increasing government procurement to employ unemployed graduates and relaxing consumption restrictions to stimulate spending [16][17]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption and infrastructure investment to boost overall demand, with a focus on maintaining policy flexibility and responsiveness to economic conditions [15][17]. Economic Indicators - As of August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1%, while the core CPI has increased by 0.5% [4][5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has decreased by 2.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving inflation targets set at around 2% for the year [3][4]. - The government emphasizes the importance of improving the supply-demand relationship through comprehensive policy measures to stabilize price levels [3][4]. Employment and Investment - Employment remains a critical focus, with high youth unemployment rates prompting calls for targeted job creation initiatives [16]. - Investment in infrastructure and private sectors is seen as vital for expanding domestic demand, with recent data indicating a slowdown in investment growth [15][17].

Group 1 - The September market is influenced by the upcoming long holiday and seasonal adjustments in investor positions, leading to decreased trading activity [1] - Post-holiday market focus will shift to domestic economic trends, particularly on demand-side policies and supply-side "de-involution" efforts, which are crucial for PPI recovery and corporate profit growth [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded, closing above short-term moving averages, while the Shenzhen Component continues to lead the market with increased trading volume of approximately 2.1 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The market is currently undergoing technical consolidation after a continuous upward trend, with some sector indices still showing upward momentum, indicating structural investment opportunities [2] - There are signs of profit-taking since late August, suggesting a divergence in short-term market sentiment, but the overall adjustment remains strong [2]

Market Review - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations with mixed performance among major indices, benefiting from increased capital expenditure in the AI sector and breakthroughs in domestic lithography technology, leading to a 6.47% rise in the Sci-Tech 50 index [1] - The consumer sector weakened, with significant declines in the social services, retail, light industry, and textile sectors [1] - Market liquidity showed a marginal decrease in trading volume, while financing funds maintained a net inflow, with stock ETFs seeing a net subscription of 23.1 billion yuan this week [1] - Internationally priced commodities strengthened, with precious metals, crude oil, and copper prices rising, while domestically priced black commodities declined [1] - The US dollar index increased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield returning to around 4.2%, and the RMB depreciating against the US dollar [1] Market Outlook - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience temporary fluctuations, with a slow bull market continuing [2] - Following a trend of rising prices in July and August, there is a divergence in capital flows as the market approaches a long holiday, potentially slowing outside capital inflow [2] - The current bull market is supported by ample micro liquidity, policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market, and the entry of medium to long-term funds [2] - Economic data remains weak, but the effects of "anti-involution" policies are beginning to show, leading to marginal improvements in long-term profit expectations for A-shares [2] Key Focus Areas 1) The Federal Reserve's recent "preventive" interest rate cut and the increasing divergence in future rate cut paths among officials [2] 2) The impact of supply-side "anti-involution" policies, with industrial profits in August showing a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, improving from a -1.7% decline in July [3] 3) The narrowing of the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, with August showing a year-on-year decrease of -2.9%, marking the first narrowing since March [3] Sector Insights - The technology sector is experiencing significant catalysts, with AI leading a new wave of technological advancement [4] - Global tech giants are increasing capital expenditure in AI, validating high growth expectations for leading companies [4] - The market anticipates high growth in earnings for growth sectors by 2025, including military electronics, software development, IT services, optical electronics, gaming, new energy, semiconductors, and communication equipment [4] Liquidity Analysis - The liquidity situation in A-shares remains robust, with non-bank deposits increasing by 550 billion yuan year-on-year in August [4] - The M1-M2 negative scissors gap continues to narrow, indicating a positive impact on residents' risk appetite [4] - The trend of residents favoring passive investment products is evident, with index funds seeing rapid growth in net asset value [4] Industry Allocation - The main focus remains on the technology sector, with an expected acceleration in internal rotation among growth stocks [5] - Attention is also directed towards non-tech sectors that are showing positive trends, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and engineering machinery [5]

Group 1 - The upcoming long holiday is leading to increased investor caution, with trading activity expected to decline as investors await external market developments [1] - Post-holiday market focus will shift back to domestic economic trends, particularly on demand-side policies to stabilize economic growth and supply-side efforts to address "involution" issues, which are crucial for PPI recovery and corporate profit growth [1] - Last week, the market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index testing the 30-day moving average, closing above it, while the Shenzhen Component Index showed strong performance, reaching a new high before slightly retreating [1] Group 2 - The market is currently in a consolidation phase after a period of upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing strong support above previous resistance levels from 2021 [2] - Despite the consolidation, some sector indices continue to trend upward, indicating that structural rotation remains a key characteristic of the current market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and recent developments in China's consumer price index (CPI) and inflation, emphasizing the government's efforts to improve supply-demand relationships through various policies and reforms, particularly focusing on the "anti-involution" measures in the supply side to stabilize prices [1][2][3]. Economic Indicators - In the first eight months of the year, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 0.5%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%, indicating significant challenges in achieving the inflation target set at around 2% [2][3]. - The core CPI has shown a positive trend since May, with a month-on-month increase reaching 0.9% in August. The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for the first time after five months of continuous expansion [2][3]. Supply-Side "Anti-Involution" Policies - The "anti-involution" measures aim to combat excessive competition that distorts market mechanisms and harms consumer interests. These measures include promoting industry self-discipline and optimizing market competition [4][5]. - Key actions include regulating local government behaviors, enhancing industry standards, and revising laws to prevent unfair competition and price manipulation [5][6]. Industry-Specific Developments - The government has implemented policies to improve the competitive landscape in various sectors, including coal, steel, and new energy vehicles, leading to a reduction in price declines in these industries [3][5]. - The focus on quality competition encourages companies to invest in technology and brand development rather than engaging in price wars, which is expected to foster a healthier market environment [6][7]. Demand-Side Considerations - The article highlights the need for demand-side measures to complement supply-side reforms, as the current "anti-involution" efforts have not significantly boosted commodity prices compared to previous supply-side reforms [8][9]. - The disparity between industrial output growth and consumer spending indicates a need for policies that stimulate demand, particularly in the service sector, to enhance overall economic activity [10][11]. Employment and Investment Strategies - Employment remains a critical focus, with policies aimed at increasing job opportunities for key demographics, including graduates and migrant workers, to boost consumer spending [11]. - Investment in infrastructure and private sector development is essential for expanding domestic demand, with ongoing efforts to streamline project approvals and enhance support for private enterprises [12].