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期货策略周报:强弩之末-20251110
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The market pattern shows signs of being at the end of its strength. Whether it's non-ferrous metals, weak industrial products, or some agricultural and sideline products (such as US soybeans, eggs, and pigs), their fundamental data has been fully traded and priced. Futures prices are based on future dynamic fundamentals rather than long - standing static fundamentals. Two types of varieties can be focused on: those with a continuous divergence structure and those that increase in position, volume during a decline and are resistant to falling [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Condition - After the supplementary decline in the market, some industrial products are at the end of their decline. For example, alumina has low trading volume, small market divergence, and reduced price volatility; glass has large intraday position - increase and decrease amplitudes but limited price fluctuations, indicating strong resistance to decline and tenacious resistance from long - positions. Static fundamental data of these varieties has been poor for a long time and has been fully digested by prices. Using static fundamentals for strategy deduction may yield mediocre results [4]. - Recently, polyolefin varieties have experienced supplementary declines. In the context of weak macro - demand, methanol suppliers will increase production until profits are low or even in the red. Regarding US soybeans, although China's expected purchase of 12 million tons at the end of the year may drive a price rebound, the reality of oversupply remains, limiting the rebound space. A significant and continuous increase in US soybeans requires a reduction in supply, and there is a high risk of chasing up soybean meal prices [4]. Product Recommendation - Abandon market prediction and rely on strategies. The "Zhui Feng 1" and "Zhui Feng 2" consulting products push daily reports, recommend trading varieties, and provide exit rules. They can be subscribed to via the path [Nanhua Futures app - Research Report Selection - Strategy Research Selection], and both products offer free trials [5]. Data Tables - **Hot - variety price change ranking**: A table shows the ranking of price changes of popular varieties, but specific data is not presented [7]. - **Sector fund flow**: The total amount of funds has a net outflow of 2.26 billion. Among sectors, precious metals have an outflow of 396 million, non - ferrous metals 394 million, while black metals have an inflow of 804 million, energy 234 million, chemicals 1.571 billion, feed and breeding 1.052 billion, oils and fats 524 million, and soft commodities 526 million. The corresponding percentage changes are - 6.2%, - 4.9%, - 6.7%, 17.9%, 15.7%, 48.6%, 50.5%, 11.6%, and 31.6% respectively [9]. - **Black and non - ferrous weekly data**: The table provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position - change, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, steel rebar, and copper, with data presented in percentile form [9]. - **Energy and chemical weekly data**: Similar to the above, it shows relevant data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - **Agricultural product weekly data**: It presents data for agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12]. Charts - There are multiple charts showing the capital flow of different varieties and sectors, such as black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, and others, but specific chart content is not described in detail [13][15][17]
铜周报20251102:预期落地、短期回调;矿端偏紧、沪铜低多-20251103
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 05:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has witnessed the realization of expectations and a short - term correction. With a tight supply at the mine end, it is advisable to go long on SHFE copper at low levels [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - The market was strong in the first half of the week, with the spot premium declining and rebounding in the second half [11] - The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened on a week - on - week basis [12] 3.2 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.55/ton week - on - week to - $42.15/ton, still at a low level [16] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 52,000 tons week - on - week to 626,100 tons [19] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened on a week - on - week basis [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in October decreased month - on - month [23] - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [25] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory decreased slightly [28] - LME copper continued to see inventory reduction, while COMEX copper continued to accumulate inventory [29] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and the high price significantly suppressed downstream procurement [32] - From October 1st to 26th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market were flat year - on - year [34] - The shipments of leading photovoltaic module enterprises were satisfactory, and centralized projects showed signs of recovery [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [39] - The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 2% for the third time, and the economic resilience withstood the headwinds of trade [41] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October meeting and will end the balance sheet reduction in December [42]